Policy paper

Farming Roadmap 2050: evidence annex (accessible version)

Published 24 June 2026

Applies to England

This evidence annex summarises the evidence used to support the main Farming Roadmap publication.

Policy context

From direct payments to paying for environmental outcomes

Since leaving the EU, direct payments based on land area have been replaced by a system that increasingly links funding to environmental outcomes.

This timeline includes the key points in English farming policy over the past 10 years, showing the transition from the Basic Payment Scheme (BPS) to the current Agri-Environment scheme offer:

• 23 June 2016 - Brexit referendum
• 27 February 2018 - Health and Harmony: the future for food, farming and the environment in a Green Brexit - policy statement
• 31 January 2020 - The UK formally left the EU (the start of shift away from the Common Agricultural Policy)
• 11 November 2020 - Agricultural Act
• November 2020 - Agriculture Transition Plan 2021-2024 published
• 2021 - Progressive reduction to Basic Payment Scheme (BPS) began
• 2021 - Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) pilot launched
• 20 October 2021 - Farming Innovation Programme launched
• 2022 - Sustainable Farming Incentive national roll-out began
• February 2022 - Landscape Recovery launched
• April 2022 - Lump Sum Exit scheme opened for applications
• 2023 - Last BPS claims made
• 2023 - Updates made to Countryside Stewardship
• 1 January 2024 - Cross Compliance rules ended
• 2024 to 2027 - Delinked payments introduced, replacing BPS. Payments made annually
• July 2024 - Sustainable Farming Incentive offer extended
• March 2025 - Sustainable Farming Incentive closed to new applicants
• 8 January 2026 - Secretary of State announced relaunch of SFI
• 2027 - Final year of delinked payments, completing the phase out of direct payments

Numbers of agri-environment schemes have increased

Income from schemes has increased. Stakeholders call for clear and consistent policy direction.

Agri-Environment Schemes

Table 1 shows the number of SFI23 and SFI Expanded Offer agreements there were in October 2023, April 2024, October 2024, April 2025 and October 2025.

Table 1: Number of SFI23 and SFI Expanded Offer agreements, 2023 to 2025.

SFI schemes	October 2023	April 2024	October 2024	April 2025	October 2025
SFI23	58	13,900	25,200	25,200	25,200
SFI Expanded Offer	Not applicable	18	900	14,000	19,300

Source: Defra, Agri-environment scheme uptake data 2025 and Defra, SFI uptake data 2025

The Sustainable Farming Incentive scheme 2023 (SFI23) was launched in October 2023. The scheme closed to new applications in June 2024 and was succeeded by the Sustainable Farming Incentive Expanded Offer. Engagement with Defra’s new environmental scheme offers has increased over time, on 1 October 2025 there were 44,500 active SFI agreements, an increase of 26,100 from October 2024 (Defra, Agri-environment scheme uptake and Defra, SFI uptake).

As of December 2025, the total area covered by agri-environment scheme agreements in England was estimated to be 6.1 million hectares, which is 69% of the utilised agricultural area (Defra, Area under agri-environment schemes). Internationally, G7 and G20 countries have committed to farming systems where productivity and environmental delivery support one another (OECD, Declaration on Transformative Solutions for Sustainable Agriculture). To support this, many are moving to policies that support environmental and resilience benefits (OECD, Agricultural Policy Monitoring and Evaluation).

Average income from AES

Average income across all farms from agri-environment activities has increased each year since the start of the transition, from £5,300 in 2020 to £21,100 in 2024. The average almost doubled between 2023 to 2024 and 2024 to 2025. (Note: farm business statistics only cover farms with a standard output of at least £21,000) (Defra, Monitoring the agricultural transition period in England and Defra, Farm business income by farm type in England).

What our stakeholders told us

Across our engagement, our stakeholders said:

• policy and schemes need to be more consistent, joined-up, clear, and long-term
• scheme inflexibility, unequal accessibility, and inconsistent communication make long-term planning difficult
• regulation needs to be clearer and simpler. Regular reviews need to ensure that it is joined-up, proportionate, and fit-for-purpose, supported by advice and guidance
• policy, regulation and targets should be based on robust data
• a long-term stable vision is needed to enable business planning and investment. This includes immediate and long-term clarity on policy direction

During our engagement activities an agricultural contractor said:

We can’t get somewhere if we don’t know where you [Defra] want to go.

 Economic context

Agri-food sector makes a significant contribution to the national economy

Agriculture and agri-food sectors are economically significant. Stakeholders call for fairer supply chains.

Agriculture key statistics

The following statistics show the agricultural sector’s contribution to the national economy:

• in 2025 the agricultural sector contributed £15.9 billion to the UK economy (Defra, Total income from farming)
• there were 453,000 people employed in agriculture in 2024 (Defra, Agriculture in the UK)
• there were 209,000 farm holdings (Defra, Farming evidence - key statistics)
• the industry used 17 million hectares of land (69% of the total land in the UK in 2024) (Defra, Farming evidence - key statistics)
• the UK had a production to supply ratio (commonly referred to as the “self-sufficiency ratio”) of 65% for all food and 77% for indigenous foods in 2024 (Defra, Farming Evidence Pack)

UK Agri-food sector key statistics

The following statistics show the agri-food sector’s contribution to the national economy in recent years, underpinned by the agricultural sector:

• in 2023, the agri-food sector contributed £153.2 billion to the UK economy (Defra, Food statistics in your pocket)
• in 2024, the value of food and drink exports was £24.6 billion (Defra, UK trade in Food, Feed and Drink)
• in 2025, 4.1 million people were employed in the sector (11.7% of employment in Great Britain) (Defra, Food statistics in your pocket)

Price volatility

Changes in input and output prices do not always reflect changes in profit.

Input and output prices

Input costs rose faster than output prices from 2020 to 2022, before output prices began to pull ahead in late 2023 as input costs fell. Following recent rises in input costs, the gap between output and input prices has now almost closed.

Figure 1: UK Monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to March 2026 (2020=100).

Source: Defra, Agricultural price indices 2026

Text description of figure 1

Figure 1 is a line graph showing changes in the price indices for agricultural inputs and outputs over time.

Fluctuations in output and input prices indices do not necessarily correlate with profits. This is because, in addition to prices, volumes of inputs and outputs impact profits. For example, despite output price growth outpacing input price growth from late 2023, profits dropped for most farms in 2023 to 2024.

Geopolitical instability 

UK farming operates in global markets with significant trade flows. Disruption caused by conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East instability affects both global input and output prices. Fertiliser and energy prices have seen significant rises since 2020 (Defra, Agricultural price indices).

Imports and exports

In 2024, the total value of exports of food, feed and drink was £24.6 billion. The value of imports of food, feed and drink was £64.1 billion (Defra, UK trade in Food, Feed and Drink). Over the long term, after adjusting for trade price inflation, the trade gap (the difference between import and export values) has widened by 22% since 2005 (Defra, Agriculture in the UK 2024 Chapter 13: Overseas trade).

What our stakeholders told us

Across our engagement, our stakeholders said:

• supply chains should be fair, transparent and resilient, aided by fair pricing and returns
• shorter, more local supply chains with improved collaboration and reduced supermarket power would help build resilience and increase profitability
• fair international trade agreements should ensure imports meet domestic standards and enable farmers to compete on a level playing field
• public procurement of domestic and high standard produce will increase market access and support local food systems

During our engagement activities a farmer said:

Farmers have to use every square metre of their land to make enough money to live on because supermarkets keep prices so low.

Profitability

Farm Business Income

Average income from agriculture continues to be volatile.

Figure 2: Average Farm Business Income (as a measure of profit in real £ per farm) from agriculture, diversification, AES and Direct Payments for all farms in the Farm Business Survey.

Source: Defra, Farm Business Survey Data Dashboard.

Text description of figure 2

Figure 2 is a line chart showing average income for farms in England, between 2005 to 2006 and 2024 to 2025. There are 4 different income categories:

• Agriculture
• Agri-environment
• Diversification
• Direct payments

Income from agriculture remains highly volatile and is strongly influenced by variable input and output prices. Profit (Farm Business Income) varies widely across sectors, with some farm types consistently earning much more than others.

Direct payments to farm businesses have declined in recent years. Agri-environment payments have increased, particularly in the last 3 years. There has been a modest increase in income share from diversification over time.

What our stakeholders told us

Across our engagement, our stakeholders said:

• profitability is central to building resilient farm businesses and a resilient sector
• food production needs to be reliably profitable. Many felt diversification should not replace core farming while others saw it as a helpful way to improve profitability and deliver environmental benefits
• nature markets are not yet fit for purpose, due to a lack of regulation, unequal access and inconsistent metrics

Productivity

Productivity has increased over time. Increases are driven by both higher outputs and lower inputs.

Total Factor Productivity

Figure 3: Total Factor Productivity of agriculture in England, 1973 to 2025.

Source: Defra, Total Factor Productivity

Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is a measure of how well agriculture turns inputs into outputs.

Text description of figure 3

Figure 3 is a line chart showing total factor productivity since 1973. The categories include total factor productivity, all outputs, and all inputs.

Between 1973 and 2025, Total Factor Productivity has increased by 54.2%. This growth reflects an increase in the volume of all outputs by 35.5% and a decrease in the volume of all inputs of 12.1% (Defra, Total Factor Productivity).

Over the long term, productivity will need to grow further to meet environmental commitments and associated land use change whilst maintaining food production. Land Use Framework analysis indicates this is achievable with policy reform, better decision making and targeted assistance (Defra, The Land Use Framework for England).

Evidence suggests UK Total Factor Productivity growth is below both the EU and the global average, although there are a range of data challenges in making consistent international comparisons (OECD, Agricultural Policy Monitoring and Evaluation).

Defra analysis suggests that offsetting the impact of land use change as required by the government’s targets would require around 0.5% annual growth in agricultural output, which is broadly consistent with historic trends (Defra, Land Use Consultation).

Short term movements in prices and yields make productivity figures volatile, even when the underlying efficiency of the farm has not changed. Labour use continues to fall, meaning output per worker has risen (Defra, Total Factor Productivity).

Investment in machinery, technology and innovation

Spending on machinery is slightly lower than a decade ago, and tends to increase when farm profits are higher.

The total amount spent by farms in England on machinery was £2.3 billion in 2023 to 2024, 3% lower than the 2014 to 2015 value (in real terms). During this timeframe, spend on machinery has fluctuated. In general, total machinery purchases and sales tended to follow a similar pattern to Farm Business Income, suggesting that higher incomes lead to higher levels of machinery purchasing (Defra, Machinery investment on farms in England).

As of September 2025, Defra’s Farming Investment Fund (FIF) Large Grants has paid out £37.1 million, and the Farming Equipment and Technology Fund paid out £124.5 million (Defra, Farming Investment Fund).

Internationally, governments in countries such as South Korea, Japan, and Germany are investing heavily in smart farming, automation and Artificial Intelligence-enabled decision-making and improving data exchanges (OECD, Agricultural Policy Monitoring and Evaluation).

Such investments can reduce the need for inputs, benefitting both productivity and sustainability. Whilst it is too early to know the impact of these programmes on productivity, they signal a shared direction of travel towards agricultural technology as a strategic investment.

What our stakeholders told us

Across our engagement, our stakeholders said:

• the definition of productivity was debated, with some stakeholders believing we should focus on food production and others believing farmers should reframe themselves around multifunctional land use
• technology has the potential to increase productivity, and automation can help address labour shortages, but affordability, accessibility, infrastructure unsuitability and skills gaps present significant barriers
• stakeholder strategies consistently underline productivity as essential for maintaining a competitive, secure and resilient food system, with many emphasising that it must be strengthened while also meeting environmental and social goals

During our engagement activities a young farmer representative said:

In the next 25 years, if there’s investment and research into improving practices and getting new technology out there, there is the capacity for farms to improve productivity.

Performance

Performance ratios compare how efficiently farms turn inputs (like labour, feed and fertiliser) into outputs (like crops or milk).

Farm business performance varies by farm type.

Figure 4: Ratio of the average output and input costs for the bottom 25%, middle 50% and top 25% of farms by farm type, England, 2022 to 2023 to 2024 to 2025 (average).

Source: Farm Business Survey Data Dashboard

Text description of figure 4

Figure 4 is a chart showing the performance ratios of different farm types. Data points are shown for performances of the top 25%, middle 50% and bottom 25% of farms.

A ratio of 1 means that a farm is producing the same amount of output as the amount of input (they are breaking even) (Defra, Farm Business Survey Data Dashboard).

Factors within farmers’ control can have a significant influence on performance ratio. The comparison between the highest and lowest performers therefore highlights significant room for efficiency and profitability improvements across the sector.

Figure 5: ratio of the average output and input costs for the bottom 25%, middle 50% and top 25% of farms by farm size, England 2022 to 2023 to 2024 to 2025 (average).

Source: Farm Business Survey Data Dashboard

Text description of figure 5

Figure 5 is a chart showing the performance ratios of different farm sizes. Data points are shown for performances of the top 25%, middle 50% and bottom 25% of farms.

Top performing farms are more effective in controlling overheads, spending proportionally less on fixed costs like machinery, and make greater use of contractors (The Andersons Centre (AC), Characteristics of Beef and Sheep Farms; AC, Characteristics of Oilseed Farms; AC, Characteristics of Dairy Farms).

High performing farms are more likely to undertake business planning and risk management practises, as well as making greater use of technical and business management advice. For example, in 2024 to 2025, 24% of low performing farms used paid for technical advice, compared to 36% of top and middle performers (Defra, Farm business management practices).

The gap between the top and bottom performers is largest among small and part-time farms. The best in these groups generate ratios that match or exceed those of many larger farms, while others struggle to cover input costs. This suggests that size and scale do not inherently limit performance (Defra, Farm Business Survey Data Dashboard).

Environmental status and pressures

Environmental pressures remain high.

Agri-environment schemes

The total land area in agri-environment schemes in England is 6.1 million hectares, or 69% of the utilised agricultural area of England (Defra, Area under agri-environment schemes).

As of October 2025, there were 44,500 active Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) agreements in England.

Nitrogen use

Application rates for nitrogen have shown an overall decline on cropping and grass categories, steadily decreasing since 1998. Application rates on cropped land have fluctuated over time but saw large dips in 2020 and 2022, with an overall decline from 2010 to 2024 (Defra, Agriculture in the UK: Agri-environment).

Pesticide use

The National Action Plan introduces a UK domestic target to reduce the potential pressure from pesticides on the environment by 10% by 2030. This target will be monitored using the UK Pesticide Load Indicator (PLI), which measures the impacts of pesticides across 20 metrics and is focused on reducing potential environmental harm, rather than a simple volume reduction target. Out of the 20 PLI metrics, 17 have shown a mean reduction of 10% or more between 2018 and 2022 (Defra, NAP target explainer).

Biodiversity

Overall, more biodiversity indicators are deteriorating or showing no change than improving, over both the long and short term ( Defra, Indicator assessment summary).

England’s nature services provided benefits exceeding £37.1 billion in 2022 - more than any single manufacturing sector (Environmental Improvement Plan).

Farmland bird populations in England

The Defra wild bird populations in the UK and England statistics show the changes in farmland bird populations over time:

• farmland bird populations in England have declined by 64% since 1970
• for most species, the most severe population declines occurred between the late 1970s and the early 1980s, due to the negative impact of rapid changes in farmland management
• although the rate of decline has slowed, populations have continued to decline at a fast rate, declining by 11% in the 5 years since 2019

Pollinating insects

The Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) status of pollinating insects statistics show the changes in the presence of pollinating insects over time:

• the presence of pollinating insects reflects the health of ecosystems that also support plants, food production and wider biodiversity. Changes in pollinator numbers can affect how many different species live in an area
• there was an overall decrease in the distribution of pollinators in the UK from 1987 onwards. By 2024, the indicator was 23% lower than its 1980 level. However, there has been no further decline in recent years, with levels remaining stable between 2019 and 2024

All species

The Defra Indicators of species abundance in England statistics show the change in species abundance over time:

• the all-species indicator is based on data for 1,185 species. The Environmental Targets for Biodiversity in England list is developed with the aim of including the broadest possible set of organisms, although the species coverage is limited by data availability
• between 1970 and 2024 the index of change in relative abundance of species in England declined by around 40%. Over this long-term period 41% of species declined in abundance, while 30% increased
• between 2019 and 2024, the relative abundance index declined by around 11%. Over this short-term period, 47% of species declined and 38% increased

Priority species

The Defra Indicators of species abundance in England statistics show the change in the abundance of priority species over time:

• priority species have been identified as being of conservation concern, often due to rapid population decline. Tracking their abundance, along with our other species-based indicators, provides an indication of the health of biodiversity
• the abundance of priority species in England has declined on average by 80% since 1970. Over the long-term, 70% of priority species showed a strong or weak decline, while only 17% of priority species showed a strong or weak increase

Air quality

Figure 6: Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture by subsector, UK 1990 to 2024 (MtCO2e).

Source: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions from agriculture

Text description of figure 6

Figure 6 is a bar chart showing the change in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 2024. The bars include categories for

• Agricultural combustion
• Livestock
• Agricultural soils
• Other agriculture

Agriculture accounts for 12% of the UK’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (46.5 Mt CO2e). UK agriculture’s total GHG emissions have declined over time. In 2024, greenhouse gas emissions from the agriculture sector were 15% lower than in 1990, largely driven by a fall in animal numbers and synthetic fertiliser use.

However, agriculture now accounts for a larger proportion of emissions overall (12%), as other sectors have decarbonised more quickly (Defra, Farming Evidence Pack).

Overall, the percentage of land area in England exposed to concentrations of ammonia (NH3) that exceed critical levels was 80.6% in 2020 to 2022, a 3.2% decrease between the 3-year moving average time periods 2002 to 2004 and 2020 to 2022. The percentage of land area has shown a decreasing trend since reaching its peak of 91.5% in 2017 to 2019. (Defra, Environmental Indicator Framework (Air); Defra, Area of land exposed to damaging levels of ammonia).

Water

Serious pollution incidents from farming in England

Agriculture is a key driver of water pollution in England, with around 40% of river and groundwater pollution being caused by agricultural practices. In 2024, farming activities caused 67 serious pollution incidents to the water environment. Of these incidents, dairy farming caused 46 and arable and other farming caused 21. 92% of the dairy incidents in 2024 involved silage or slurry (Environment Agency’s Chief Regulator’s report; Defra’s A new vision for water).

What our stakeholders told us

Across our engagement, our stakeholders said:

• environmental sustainability is fundamental to a productive farming system
• farmers deliver significant environmental benefits, and this contribution should be valued through financial incentives
• multifunctional land use should support food production while meeting environmental and climate targets
• climate change and weather pose a significant challenge to future profitability and sector resilience
• farming can help the UK reach Net Zero, but progress must be judged fairly. This means taking a whole‑system view and avoiding situations where emissions are simply shifted overseas through increasing imports
• stakeholders were positive about nature markets in principle but pushed for further consistency, regulation and access

Benefits of sustainable agriculture

Farming sustainably can enhance profitability and improve resilience of agricultural production.

Integrated Pest Management (IPM)

Benefits of integrated pest management include:

• integrated pest management improves air quality, soil quality and biodiversity through reduced pesticide use and provision of habitats
• the savings that growers can make by using IPM measures and reducing pesticide use can offset any losses to overall yield and IPM has been shown to sometimes improve yield (Defra’s Review of Evidence on Integrated Pest Management)

Nutrient management

Benefits of nutrient management include:

• nutrient management planning can allow land managers to match inputs of nutrients to crop demand. Precise nutrient application can further minimise waste and run off which could better optimise yield and profitability
• this optimises yield, minimises nutrient use and minimises environmental losses (Environment Agency, The state of the environment: soil)

Soil management

Benefits of soil management include:

• managing soil organic matter supports long-term yields, food quality, extreme weather resilience and carbon storage (Environment Agency, The state of the environment: soil)

In-field agroforestry

Benefits of in-field agroforestry include:

• integrating trees into arable crops has been shown to increase crop productivity potential and can substantially reduce soil erosion (Environment Agency, The state of the environment: soil)

Consumer trends

Consumers are concerned about the cost, quality and sustainability of food. UK consumer attitudes and behaviours towards food include:

• UK consumers’ top food concern in 2025 was food prices (92%) (Food Standards Agency (FSA), Consumer Insights Tracker)
• more than half of consumers report money saving food behaviours including eating food past its use by date (62%) and buying less food (54%) (FSA, Consumer Insights Tracker)
• consumers are concerned about food quality, particularly ultra-processed or over processing of food (79%) and the general quality of food (77%) (FSA, Consumer Insights Tracker)
• most consumers are concerned about climate change, however overall concern about climate change has steadily declined from 85% in Autumn 2021 to 77% in Winter 2025 (DESNZ, Public Attitudes Tracker)
• most (74%) consumers think it is important to buy food which has a low environmental impact (FSA, Food and You 2 trends)
• some consumers have made changes to their food-related behaviours in the last 12 months, including eating less processed food (49%), minimising food waste (36%) and eating more fruit and vegetables (46%). Despite high concern about environmental impact, in practice price is a key driver of food consumption habits (FSA, Food and You 2 Annual Report)
• most (77%) consumers are confident in the supply chain, defined as “all the processes involved in bringing food to your table” (FSA, Food and You 2 Annual Report)

Key consumer statistics

The definition of food security is: “when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (Defra, Food Security Report).

The following statistics show consumer’s food expenditure and consumption trends:

• in 2024, the poorest fifth of households spent 5% less on food in 2024 than 2023 after adjusting for inflation (Office for National Statistics, Family spending). This may suggest that poorer households either consumed less, or where applicable, switched to lower cost or quality alternatives
• UK consumers’ expenditure on food and alcoholic drinks was 15.7% higher in 2023 than in 2014 (Defra, Food statistics in your pocket)
• 24% of households in December 2025 were worried about not being able to afford food, which remains stable since 2023 (FSA, Consumer Insights Tracker).
• in 2024 to 2025, 9% of individuals were living in food insecure households (Department for Work and Pensions, An analysis of the UK income distribution)
• average meat consumption per person per day in the UK decreased between 2008 to 2019 from 103.7g to 86.3g. Between 2008 to 2011 and 2017 to 2019, consumption of plant-based alternatives rose by 115% (Defra, UK Food Security Digest)
• the organic sector is now on its 14th consecutive year of growth, with a strong reliance on imports the sector makes up 3% of UK farmland (Soil Association, Organic Market Report)

What our stakeholders told us

Across our engagement, our stakeholders said:

• understanding and valuing food and farming is essential to a thriving sector
• connecting the public with farming can increase understanding of food production and ensure high quality domestic produce is valued
• key enablers include public education and engagement, as well as the promotion of domestic produce and associated high standards
• some farming stakeholders said food prices should increase to ensure farm-level profitability, whilst other stakeholders shared concerns that increased food prices could have unintended consequences including increased food inequality and an increase in consumption of cheap and ultra-processed foods
• stakeholders representing supermarkets voiced a reluctance to pass price increases onto consumers

The agricultural workforce

The farming workforce is declining in size and ageing and is facing notable skills gaps. Fewer farmers feel positive about their future in farming.

Workforce size and composition

There has been a downward trend in workforce size. The agricultural workforce was 279,000 in 2025, compared with 333,000 in 2000 (Defra, Agricultural workforce in England). The workforce is ageing, with 40% of principal farmers 65 years old or over and only 15% under 45 years old (Defra, Agricultural workforce in England).

Skills and business planning

The following key statistics show the status of skills and business management in the sector:

• whilst vacancies in the sector are low, 39% of vacancies are attributed to skills shortages (Defra, Skills gaps and opportunities)
• the seasonal worker visa allocation for 2025 was 38,805, a 10% increase on the previous year. This followed a substantial increase in quotas in recent years (Home Office, why do people come to the UK? Work)
• in 2024 to 2025, 84% of farm businesses were carrying out some kind of business management practice, with top performing farm businesses more likely to be doing this than lower performers. The most common business management practice was having an informal plan (Defra, Farm business management practices)
• the proportion of farms doing business management practices remained broadly consistent between 2016 to 2017 and 2024 to 2025 (Defra, Farm business management practices).

Figure 7: Proportion of holdings that feel positive about their future of farming, October 2021 to April 2025

Source: Defra, Farmer Opinion Tracker

Text description of figure 7:

Figure 7 is a line graph showing the proportion of holdings that feel positive about their future of farming every 6-months between October 2021 to April 2025. It shows the proportion of those that feel very positive, somewhat positive, not at all positive and that don’t know.

When asked how they feel about their future in farming, farmers on 33% of holdings feel positive about their future in farming, continuing the downward trend seen in recent years. The proportion of farmers that feel positive about their future in farming has reduced by 12% since the question was first asked in 2021 (Defra, Farmer Opinion Tracker).

What our stakeholders told us

Across our engagement, our stakeholders said:

• there was a desire for a skilled, well supported workforce with strong advisory networks and clear pathways for new entrants
• challenges include a lack of time and resources for farmers to upskill, poor mental health and low morale, leading to confusion, isolation, and farmers feeling undervalued and disempowered
• education and upskilling of farmers through collaboration, advice and training was seen as important, especially to ensure farmers can adapt and implement new technologies
• new entrants were considered key for enabling improved skills and knowledge base, with this supported by positive working conditions, supportive rural amenities, viable education, and improved entry through succession and land access

During our engagement a young farmer said:

I’d like to go into farming but its financial position in this day and age makes it one of the most difficult careers young people can go into.

During our engagement, another farmer said:

Mental health is a big issue at the minute and that’s because of finances, because of stress.

What we expect to see if things are going well

Success would mean a farming sector that is more productive, profitable, sustainable and resilient.

We can use indicators to understand whether the sector is moving in this direction, giving us signals about economic strength, environmental progress and how prepared farmers feel for future change.

A productive and economically healthy sector would show:

• higher total income from farming and gross value added. this would indicate that the sector is generating more value and contributing strongly to the wider economy across all farm business activities, without relying on short term price shocks or one-off payments
• improved agriculture total factor productivity. this would reflect more efficient use of labour, land, fertiliser and other inputs, suggesting that investment, skills and innovation are paying off in better output with fewer resources
• reduced performance gap, as the number of lower performing farms reduces

A sustainable sector would show:

• reduced greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. lower emissions from livestock, soils and energy use would indicate progress towards climate goals while maintaining production
• reduced dependency on pesticides. this would show that farms are managing pests through more sustainable approaches such as integrated pest management
• increased amount of land being managed for the environment. this would suggest that more farmers see environmental actions as part of their business model, improving biodiversity and landscape outcomes. over time we will see a smaller share of funding coming from schemes and a growing share from private markets and supply chain requirements
• increase in species abundance. this would suggest that environmental actions are translating into real ecological outcomes, with habitats supporting more wildlife

A resilient and confident sector would show:

• consistent production capacity, signalling reduced vulnerability to global shocks
• secure food supply, demonstrating that food is reliably available over time (as monitored by the UK food security report), without major disruptions caused by extreme weather, geopolitical shocks, labour shortages or supply chain failures
• higher proportions of farmers reporting confidence and optimism, indicating that businesses feel able to respond to change and see a viable future in farming

A more profitable sector would show:

• higher average farm business income over the long term, across core farming, agri-environment activity and diversification. This would suggest that farms have a mix of income sources and that the business can withstand volatility in commodity markets or weather conditions
• at the sector level there would be a reduced number of loss-making farm businesses

Reporting

These indicators sit alongside statutory reporting including annual Environmental Improvement Plan reports, annual statements of GHG emissions and the UK Food Security Report. These provide context, verification and deeper evidence on food supply, environmental outcomes and risk.

Together, these sources create a more complete picture of whether the sector is heading towards a productive, profitable, sustainable and resilient future.

We will report periodically in line with our existing commitments within the Agricultural Act.

Engagement

A programme of engagement provided opportunities for a range of people with an interest in farming to share their views on the future of the sector to support Defra in developing the Farming Roadmap. It brought together farmers from different farm types and regions, and a range of other farming, food and environmental stakeholders.

This created space for people with different experiences and priorities to contribute their insights, highlight concerns and identify what they see as the necessary conditions for the success of the sector.

Farmers were central to the engagement because they will be directly impacted and bring the practical insight needed.

Overview of engagement activities

We carried out the following engagement activities:

• national ‘Futures Thinking’ workshops
• online scoping exercise
• regional workshops
• online focus groups
• a final reflective workshop with national stakeholders

Future thinking workshops

Our future thinking workshops were attended by representatives from farming and environmental organisations, academics, supermarkets and banks. Using a deliberative, futures thinking approach, participants discussed probable and preferrable futures and associated enablers, barriers and unintended consequences.

Attendees were selected through Defra’s existing networks, alongside individuals and organisations who have been actively exploring long-term futures for farming so that we could draw on their insight.

Online scoping exercise

The exercise gathered stakeholder views on the findings of the futures workshop and opinions of potential futures states.

Regional workshops

Workshops were held in Winchester, Exeter, Ashford, Carlisle, Worcester, Lincoln and Hexham and invited farmers to think about preferred futures for the sector and discuss barriers and enablers.

We worked with local networks, including local authorities and auction marts to reach people embedded in the local farming community to ensure engagement captured locally grounded insight.

Online focus groups

Our focus groups were attended by active farmers and representatives from farming and environmental organisations. The online workshops explored participants’ priorities for the future and their expectations for the roadmap. For the focus groups, specific groups were targeted such as organic farmers, contractors and young farmers to explore issues that might not surface in broader engagement.

Reflective workshop

A final reflective workshop was attended by representatives from national farming and environmental organisations. Attendees were presented with findings from earlier engagement activities and asked to reflect on various elements of the roadmap including purpose, components, audiences and content.

Supporting evidence

A wider programme of evidence was also utilised alongside primary engagement to ensure the roadmap reflected a broad and balanced view of the sector. This included analysis of relevant media coverage to help identify persistent issues of concern to the sector, Defra’s annual Farmer Opinion Tracker (FOT) which provides insight into how farmers are feeling, relevant responses to the Land Use Framework (LUF) consultation and insight gathered through Defra’s ongoing programme of engagement with farmers and stakeholders.

We attended auction marts and agricultural shows while developing the roadmap. We undertook a thorough analysis of future focussed strategies and papers published by stakeholders to gain an understanding of the range of strategic perspectives.

Thematic analysis of detailed notes from all engagement discussions identified recurring patterns and themes and allowed the identification of areas of non-consensus, as well as where views aligned strongly across different groups.