Wild bird populations in the UK and England, 1970 to 2024

Question 1

Summary

Accepted Answer

In 2024, the combined bird species indices for the UK and England continue to show an overall decline. Since 1970, populations of wild birds have declined by almost one fifth in both the UK and England. Both indicators declined most between the late 1970s and the early 1990s, driven mostly by steep declines in woodland and farmland birds. Those two indicators then remained relatively stable or showed shallow declines until the mid 2010s, before in recent years showing a slightly accelerated downward trend. This decline is particularly associated with steep short-term declines observed in seabirds and farmland birds, although many of the bird groups show a decline in this period.

Throughout this publication, you will find chapters on:

All bird species chapter 1
Farmland birds chapter 2
Woodland birds chapter 3
Water and wetland birds chapter 4
Seabirds chapter 5
Upland birds chapter 6
Wintering waterbirds chapter 7

Question 2

Introduction

Accepted Answer

Why monitor bird populations

Bird populations have long been considered to provide a good indication of the broad state of wildlife in the UK. This is because they occupy a wide range of habitats and respond to environmental pressures that also operate on other groups of wildlife. In addition, there are considerable long-term data on trends in bird populations, allowing for comparison between trends in the short term and long term. Because they are a well-studied taxonomic group, drivers of change for birds are better understood than for many other species groups, which enable better interpretation of any observed changes. Birds also have huge cultural importance and are highly valued as a part of the UK’s natural environment by the general public. Although bird indicators can reflect the health of the natural environment more widely, those presented in this publication should not be used in isolation to infer the status of all other species groups.

It is not practical to determine changes in the actual number of birds for each species in the UK and England each year, but it is possible to reliably assess the status of many species by calculating relative change, based on counts on representative sample plots surveyed as part of national monitoring schemes (see Main notes at the end for more details of the survey sources used).

Trends in bird populations are used by policy makers, government agencies and non-governmental organisations as part of the evidence base with which to assess the effects of environmental management, such as agricultural practices or woodland management, on bird populations. The trends are also used to assess the effectiveness of environmental interventions intended to address declines, such as agri-environment schemes targeted at farmland birds.

Understanding the bird population indices

Individual bird species population trends, based on carefully designed surveys undertaken largely by volunteer experts, are calculated as a series of annual indices. These relate the population in a given year to a ‘baseline’ – the first year that data are available – which is given a value of 100. Thereafter, the index is expressing the population as a percentage of this ‘baseline’.

This annual Defra Accredited Official Statistics Release presents data trends up to 2024 in populations of common birds (species with a population of at least 500 breeding pairs in the UK, or 300 breeding pairs in England) that are native to, and breed in, the UK, with trends overall as well as for 5 main habitat groups (see relevant data sets published alongside this update for a list of birds in each group). The release also presents trends up to 2023/2024 for wintering waterbird populations, some of which also breed in the UK. In each chapter there are species that are included in the overall indicator, but not the habitat breakdowns, or are present in multiple habitat breakdowns.

The charts presented combine individual species indices into a single indicator to provide an overall trend for each group mentioned above using a geometric mean - an average calculated by multiplying a set of index values and taking the nth root, where n is the number of index values. More information can be found in Introduction to the Wild Birds Population Indicator. The indices are considered to give reliable medium to long-term trends, but strong reliance should not be attached to short-term changes from year to year.

Assessing trends

Smoothed trends are referred to in the text, which are used to formally assess the statistical significance of change over time. Smoothed trends are used for both long and short-term assessments as they reduce the short-term peaks and troughs resulting from, for example, year-to-year weather and sampling variations as well as good or bad breeding seasons. See analytical methods on BTO website (Fewster et al. 2000. Ecology 81: 1970-1984). The most recent data point in smoothed trends, that is, 2024 in this update, can change in subsequent publications due to the smoothing process being applied and to additional data included in future updates (see BTO Research Report on ‘Production of smoothed population trends when a year of data is missing’ on BTO’s ‘Bird Indicators’ web page). Results and estimates of change are based on smoothed indices but unsmoothed trends are also provided in the associated data sheets.

These trends are based on estimates from surveys. Smoothed trends are presented with 95% confidence intervals (CI), which are a measure of the precision of these survey estimates: a 95% CI means users can be 95% confident that the true change in abundance relative to the baseline year falls within the confidence interval around it. The width of the confidence intervals varies between habitat indicators because it is influenced by the number of species in each indicator and the precision of the individual species trends that make up the indicator. For the indicators derived from species trends that cannot be statistically evaluated by this method (wintering waterbirds), a threshold is used to evaluate the significance of the change. For wintering waterbirds this threshold is set at 5%.

Throughout this release, assessment periods are referred to as:

‘Long-term’ – an assessment of change since the earliest date for which data are available; this varies among indicators and among individual species.
‘Short-term’ – an assessment of change over the latest five years for which data are available.

The data sets published alongside this update show long-term and short-term assessments for each individual bird species. Individual species assessments are calculated up to the penultimate year of data to account for uncertainty in the final year estimate.

Alongside the overall index, the percentage of species within each indicator that have increased or decreased in the long term and in the short term is also shown. This is based on the average rate of annual change over the long or short term, categorised by how much the population would change if that annual change continued for 25 years. These thresholds are asymmetrical to represent symmetrical proportional change in an index, that is, the opposite of a 50% decline is a doubling (a 100% increase), not a 50% increase. These thresholds are derived from those used in the Birds of Conservation Concern status assessment on the BTO website for birds in the UK.

The 5 categories of change are defined as:

strong increase: population increase of 100% or more
weak increase: more than 33% but less than 100% increase
little change: between a 25% decrease and a 33% increase
weak decline: less than 50% but greater than 25% decrease
strong decline: population decrease of 50% or more

Although a species may be classed as little change based on their rate of annual change continuing over a 25 year period, over longer periods of time this can still represent a substantial population change. For example, over 50 years species in this category may have experienced a decline of 50% or an increase of 66%.

The bird population indices have been compiled in conjunction with the British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Question 3

1. Native breeding wild bird populations (all bird species)

Accepted Answer

All bird species Indicator trend description

The ‘all bird species’ index has declined by 18% in the UK and by 19% in England since 1970. Following an initial upturn, the indices have shown a shallow decline between the mid-1970s and the early 1990s. The indices then remained relatively stable until 2015, since then they have shown a modest but continuous decline, with the UK indicator declining by 4% and England by 7% in the five years since 2019. The overall decline observed in the all bird species indicators, each composed of more than 100 species trends, masks considerable variation in the different habitat indices and in individual species trends.

Figure 1.1: Populations of 130 wild bird species in the UK and 118 in England, 1970 to 2024

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figure 1.1:

The smoothed trends are shown together with the 95% confidence intervals (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area around each line on the chart.
The five year assessment period over which short-term change in the indicator is calculated is signified by the grey box. For this indicator, it spans the time period 2019 to 2024.

Variation in habitat index trends

The variation observed in the index trends for different bird habitats is summarised in Figure 1.2 and Table 1, whilst the detailed habitat indices (including indices for the different subgroups within each habitat) are shown in the individual habitat sections later in this publication. A summary of each habitat is provided here:

Farmland bird populations have declined severely (by around 62% over the long term and 11% in the short term), with declines being stronger for farmland specialist birds than generalists. Examples of farmland birds in strong long-term decline includes turtle dove, grey partridge, tree sparrow, corn bunting and starling, although some (corn bunting for example) show increases in recent years.
Woodland bird populations have declined substantially by around 32% over the long term, but due to some recent years of high abundance in some parts of the UK, relatively little overall change in the short-term (this is not true in England where woodland populations continue to decline by 6%). The long-term declines in the composite indicators have been driven by woodland specialist birds but there has also been a downturn in generalist bird populationss over the past five years. Examples of woodland birds in strong long-term decline include willow tit, capercaillie, lesser spotted woodpecker and spotted flycatcher.
Breeding water and wetland bird populations have experienced little to no change across the UK and a decline of 11% in England over the long term. More recently, since 2019, water and wetland bird populations have experienced declines. However, this masks considerable variation in the different habitats with, for example, birds associated with reedbed habitats increasing. Examples of breeding water and wetland birds in strong decline include yellow wagtail in the long term and lapwing, great creasted grebe and grey wagtail in the short term.
Seabird populations in the UK have declined in the long term (37%), a trend which has continued in the short term. The England seabird index, which is comprised of a slightly different suite of species, has declined but not significantly in both the long and short term. Examples of seabirds in strong decline include Arctic skua (only present in Scotland), herring gull and shag.
Upland bird populations have declined by 11% in the long term. In the short term, UK populations experienced little to no change but declined by 6% in England. Examples of upland birds in strong decline include peregrine falcon and whinchat.
Most Wintering waterbird trends are not included in the all bird species indicator as this indicator is based on wintering populations of largely migratory species, whether or not there are also breeding populations in the UK. These wintering populations have increased markedly in the long term (92%), but this trajectory changed around 2000 and has since shown little or no change in the most recent five year period. No wintering water birds are in strong decline over the long term, but over the short term examples include Bewick’s swan, scaup and golden plover.

Figure 1.2: Populations of wild birds in the UK and in England by habitat, 1970 to 2024

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figure 1.2:

The indicators are based on the aggregated population trends for each habitat and each country.
Figure 1.2 shows the smoothed trend for all habitats together with the 95% confidence intervals (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area around each line on the chart.
The wintering waterbirds data is not included in the ‘all bird species’ indicator as this index is based on wintering numbers, whether or not any of the species in it also have breeding populations in the UK, with a single exception where a trend from the summer months is used to represent the trend in the wintering numbers of British/Irish greylag.

Table 1: Long and short-term trends at a glance for the UK and England

Index	Time period	Number of species (UK/England)	Long term trend UK	Short term trend UK	Long term trend England	Short term trend England
All bird species	1970 to 2024	130/118	Deteriorating	Deteriorating	Deteriorating	Deteriorating
Farmland	1970 to 2024	19/19	Deteriorating	Deteriorating	Deteriorating	Deteriorating
Seabirds	1986 to 2024	13/11	Deteriorating	Deteriorating	Little or no overall change	Little or no change
Upland	1994 to 2024	32/28	Deteriorating	Little or no change	Deteriorating	Deteriorating
Wetland	1975 to 2024	26/26	Little or no overall change	Deteriorating	Deteriorating	Deteriorating
Wintering waterbirds	1975/1976 to 2023/2024	46/41	Improving	Little or no change	Improving	Little or no change
Woodland	1970 to 2024	37/34	Deteriorating	Little or no change	Deteriorating	Deteriorating

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Species trends

The ‘all bird species’ index includes aggregated population trends for 130 species of birds in the UK and 118 for England. The species list is compiled using mainly widespread species which each have a population of at least 500 breeding pairs (or 300 in England), and have sufficient data to calculate a trend. Species trends vary widely, from species increasing several-fold in the long term (for example, Cetti’s warbler, avocet, blackcap, buzzard, great spotted woodpecker, red kite and collared dove) to those having declined to less than a tenth of 1970 numbers (for example, turtle dove, capercaillie, willow tit, grey partridge, tree sparrow and spotted flycatcher).

To summarise trends in individual bird species changes (long term and short term) we present bar charts showing the proportion of species that are increasing, in decline, or show little or no change.

In the UK 29% of species have declined since 1970 and a similar percentage of species has increased (28%).
The short-term trends shows a higher percentage of species in decline (42%) compared to those increasing (25%).

Similar patterns are observed in England, except for a higher (50%) proportion of species in short-term decline.

Figure 1.3: Long-term (1970 to 2023) and short-term changes (2018 to 2023) in species trends for the all birds species indicator

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figures 1.3:

The indicators are based on the aggregated population trends of 130 species of wild birds in the UK and 118 species in England.
Each row represents all of the species within a habitat for which we have data. We lack data for some short-term measures because no survey has been conducted within the last five years.
Each stack within a bar shows the percentage of species within the indicator that are categorised as showing an increase (strong or weak increase), a decrease (strong or weak decline) or little or no change.
Change estimates for species are assessed to the penultimate year, the short-term five-year change for species spans 2018 to 2023.

Variation in individual species trends for different habitats

The all bird species trends also mask variation in individual species trend summaries of the different habitats, and we provide a detailed breakdown (including a breakdown of subgroups such as generalist and specialist bird species) in the habitat specific chapters. To highlight this variation, a comparative summary of the long-term and short-term trends for individual species for each habitat in the UK is presented below. The key results are:

Widespread species show declines across habitats: across all habitats, a significant percentage of species are in decline over the long term, except for breeding and wintering birds of UK wetlands, with farmland habitats showing the highest proportions of declining species. In contrast, the short-term declining trends are most prevalent in wetland and wintering waterbird species.
Woodland species beginning to stabilise: woodland species were reported to have the highest number of species declining in the short term under our previous publication. This year, we see fewer species declining and more species increasing, although overall there are still more declining than increasing species.
Farmland species are still under pressure: farmland species are particularly at risk, with the highest percentage of species in decline across both time periods and relatively few species are increasing.
Limited evidence of increase in species: Across most of the habitats, fewer species are increasing than declining.
Stability in certain habitats: across several habitats, a notable proportion of species show little change over the long term, including wetland, woodland and upland, which includes nearly half of the species. In the short term woodland and farmland habitats show a substantial proportion of species with little change.
A reversal in trend for wintering waterbirds: over the long term, almost half of all wintering waterbird populations have increased, whereas the opposite trend is seen over the short term, with a similar proportion now in decline. This gradual downward trajectory started in the early 2000s.

In England, we see similar trends in the long term. Over the short term there are some notable differences:

Wetland and woodland see a far greater percentage of species in decline than in the UK, over two thirds of constituent species.
Around half of constituent species in marine and upland habitats are in decline.

Figure 1.4: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for different habitats in the UK

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figure 1.4:

Each row represents 100% of the species within a habitat for which data exist in that time period.
Each stack within a bar shows the percentage of species within the indicator that are categorised as showing an increase (strong or weak increase), a decrease (strong or weak decline) or little or no change.
Over the long term, 32 upland species were assessed but only 26 could be assessed over the short term.
Habitats are ranked by highest percentage of species in decline.
WWB: Wintering waterbirds.

Question 4

2. Breeding farmland bird populations in the UK and England

Accepted Answer

Indicator trend description: Farmland birds

Farmland bird populations have declined by 62% since 1970, with turtle dove and tree sparrow showing the steepest declines. For most species, the most severe population declines occurred between the late 1970s and the early 1980s, largely due to the negative impact of rapid changes in farmland management during this period. Although the rate of decline has slowed since this period, populations have continued to decline at a fast rate, declining by 11% in the five years since 2019. The long-term decline of the farmland bird indicator in the UK has been driven mainly by the decline of those species that are restricted to, or highly dependent on, farmland habitats (the ‘specialists’). The remaining species included in the indicator are labelled ‘generalists’, reflecting their additional association with other habitats. More recently, severe declines in some of these generalist species have contributed to the fast decline observed in the farmland bird indicator.

Farmland refers to the 70% of land in the UK and 67% of land in England which is devoted to agriculture. Farmland also provides semi-natural habitats such as hedgerows and field margins that provide food and shelter to birds.

Figure 2.1: Breeding farmland birds for 19 species in the UK and England, 1970 to 2024

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figure 2.1:

The indicators are based on the aggregated population trends of species of farmland birds in the UK and England (of which 12 species are farmland specialists and 7 are generalists).
Figure 2.1 shows the smoothed trend together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart, for the UK and England.
The five year assessment period over which short-term change in the indicator is calculated is signified by the grey box. For this indicator, it spans the time period 2019 to 2024.

Figure 2.2: Breeding farmland birds by species group in the UK and England, 1970 to 2024

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figure 2.2:

The indicators are based on the aggregated population trends of 19 species of farmland birds in the UK and England (of which 12 species are farmland specialists and 7 are generalists).
Figure 2.2 shows the smoothed trend together with its 95% confidence interval for the different subgroups of birds. Trends for the UK and England are plotted side by side.

Table 2: Long and short-term trends at a glance for Farmland birds in the UK and England

Index	Time period	Species number (UK / England)	Long-term change UK	Short-term change UK	Long-term change England	Short-term change England
All	1970 to 2024	19 / 19	-62%	-11%	-64%	-13%
Generalists	1970 to 2024	7 / 7	-24%	-7%	-18%	-9%
Specialists	1970 to 2024	12 / 12	-75%	-13%	-78%	-16%

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Species trends: Farmland birds

The farmland bird index for both the UK and England includes individual measures for 19 species of farmland birds, of which 12 species are farmland specialists and 7 species are farmland generalists. In the UK:

43% of generalists species have declined both since 1970 and in the most recent 5-year period
75% of specialist species have declined since 1970 and in the most recent 5-year period 42% of specialist species have declined

Similar trends are observed in England, with the exception that:

in the long term fewer generalist species have declined in England (29%)
in the most recent 5-year period more specialist species have declined (50%)

Figure 2.3: Long-term and short-term changes in species trends for farmland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2023

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figure 2.3:

The indicators are based on the aggregated population trends of 19 species of farmland birds in the UK (12 species are farmland specialists and 7 species are farmland generalists).
Each row represents 100% of the species within a habitat/sub-habitat.
Each bar within a row shows the percentage of species within the indicator that are categorised as showing an increase (strong or weak increase), a decrease (strong or weak decline) or little or no change.
Change estimates for species are assessed to the penultimate year, the short-term five-year change for species spans 2018 to 2023.

Species breakdown: Farmland birds

Farmland generalists

The generalist species use a wider range of habitats than the specialist farmland species. Three generalist species have declined at a high rate over the long-term period: yellow wagtail by 74%, greenfinch overall by 66% and kestrel by 49%. Two of these are continuing to decline over the short term, but kestrel is stable.

Populations of two species, jackdaw and woodpigeon, have more than doubled relative to 1970 levels, but have levelled off over the most recent five years.

Reed bunting, whilst not having declined at a sufficiently high rate over the long term to be classified as such, is showing a higher rate of decline in the most recent five years, particularly in England where its population has reduced by 14%.

Farmland specialists

Five farmland specialists (turtle dove, tree sparrow, grey partridge, corn bunting and starling) have experienced severe declines in excess of 80% since 1970 across the UK and England. Of these, most and especially turtle dove are continuing to decline in the short term, with the exception of corn bunting, which has increased by 17% in the most recent five years.

Species such as lapwing and yellowhammer also remain a concern, having declined by over 65% over the longer period and continuing to strongly decline in the most recent five years across both England and the UK.

In contrast, numbers of two other farmland specialists (stock dove and goldfinch) have more than doubled since 1970. Stock dove continues to show strong increases of 18% in the most recent five years. This shows how responses to changes in farmland can vary among species.

Figure 2.4: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species for farmland birds in the UK

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figure 2.4:

Figure 2.4 shows the individual population changes of 19 species of farmland birds in the UK and in England (12 species are farmland specialists and 7 species are farmland generalists). Data for some species starts after 1970 and so for these species the long-term change represents a shorter time period.
Species names are labelled with the associated habitat specificity. G - farmland generalist species; S - farmland specialist species.
Only those species for which the change was significant and whose average rate of change placed it outside of the ‘little or no change’ category are labelled with their percentage change.
For visualisation purposes the axis have been truncated to between -100% and +100%. For species that exceed the +100% limit, the exact percentage change is labelled next to the bars and marked with a † symbol. In figure 2.4 woodpigeon, stock dove, jackdaw and goldfinch all exceed 100%.
Change estimates for species are assessed to the penultimate year, the short-term five-year change for species spans 2018 to 2023.

Factors affecting farmland bird populations

Farmland provides semi-natural habitats such as hedgerows and field margins that provide food and shelter to birds. The large declines in the abundance of many farmland birds have a number of known and potential causes. For a large part, declines have been caused by the changes in farming practices that have taken place since the 1950s and 1960s, such as the loss of mixed farming, a move from spring to autumn sowing of arable crops, change in grassland management (for example, a switch from hay to silage production), increased pesticide and fertiliser use, and the removal of non-cropped features such as hedgerows. The rate of these changes, which resulted in the loss of suitable nesting and suitable feeding habitats, and a reduction in available food, was greatest during the late 1970s and early 1980s, the period during which many farmland bird populations declined most rapidly. However, some generalist species such as woodpigeon have benefited from increased availability of their food throughout the winter owing to the autumn sowing of crops.

Some farming practices continue to have negative impacts on bird populations, but most farmers can and do take positive steps to conserve birds on their land. In particular, a number of incentive schemes encourage improved environmental stewardship in farming, with some measures specifically designed to help stabilise and recover farmland bird populations. These include the provision of over-wintered stubble and planted wild bird crop covers to provide seed in the winter, uncropped margins on arable fields and sympathetic management of hedgerows. There is growing evidence that such action can deliver local recoveries in farmland bird populations and thus, if delivered at appropriate scale, wider recovery. Changes in numbers experienced by some species may, to a lesser extent, be further driven by other pressures. Concern about turtle dove has led to international action in the form of hunting restrictions in areas where these birds migrate in winter, which together with habitat management in the UK is hoped to help save this endangered species. The rapid decline in Greenfinch numbers since 2005 has been attributed to the adverse impact of the disease trichomoniasis, which has also impacted other species.

For more information about the evidence for this indicator, see the evidence statement Annex 1.03 Evidence Statement for C5a Farmland Birds.

Question 5

3. Breeding woodland bird populations in the UK and England

Accepted Answer

Indicator trend description: Woodland birds

Woodland bird populations have declined by 32% in the UK and 36% in England since 1970. There appears to be a very recent upturn in recent years, particularly in the 2023 and 2024 breeding seasons (2024 only for the generalists), after a decade of overall decline, with the indicator showing little or no change in the UK and declining by 6% in England in the five years since 2019. Woodland bird breeding numbers respond rapidly to good climatic conditions however, so the future trajectory is still uncertain. The long-term decline of the woodland bird indicator in the UK has been driven mainly by the decline of those species that are restricted to, or highly dependent on, woodland habitats (the ‘specialists’), such as willow tit and spotted flycatcher. The recent years of high abundance are reflected in an apparent stabilization of the specialist indicators for the UK and England, and also for generalists in the UK.

Woodland covers 14% of the UK land area and 10% of England’s, providing trees and other vegetation suitable for nesting, foraging opportunities and cover from predators.

Figure 3.1: Breeding woodland birds for 37 species in the UK and 34 in England, 1970 to 2024

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figure 3.1:

The indicators are based on the aggregated population trends of species of woodland birds in the UK and England, of which 25 species are woodland specialists (22 in England) and 12 are generalists in the UK and England.
Figure 3.1 shows the smoothed trend together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart, for UK and England.
The five year assessment period over which short-term change in the indicator is calculated is signified by the grey box. For this indicator, it spans the time period 2019 to 2024.

Figure 3.2: Breeding woodland birds by species group in the UK and England, 1970 to 2024

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figure 3.2:

The indicators are based on the aggregated population trends of 37 species of woodland birds in the UK and 34 in England, of which 25 species are woodland specialists (22 in England) and 12 are generalists in the UK and England.
Figure 3.2 shows the smoothed trend together with its 95% confidence interval for the different subgroups of birds. Trends for the UK and England are plotted side by side.

Table 3: Long and short-term trends at a glance for Woodland birds in the UK and England

Index	Time period	Species number (UK / England)	Long-term change UK	Short-term change UK	Long-term change England	Short-term change England
All	1970 to 2024	37 / 34	-32%	-3%	-36%	-6%
Generalists	1970 to 2024	12 / 12	-4%	-6%	-14%	-13%
Specialists	1970 to 2024	25 / 22	-44%	-2%	-46%	-3%

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Species trends: Woodland birds

The woodland bird index for both the UK and England includes individual measures for 37 species of woodland birds in the UK and 34 in England, of which 25 species are woodland specialists (22 in England) and 12 are generalists in the UK and England. The overall trend masks different underlying trends for specialist species, those which are highly dependent on woodland habitats, and generalist species, which are found in a wide range of habitats, including woodland. In the UK:

25% of generalists species have declined and 67% show little change since 1970. In the most recent 5-year period 42% of generalists species have declined
40% of specialist species have declined both since 1970 and in the most recent 5-year period

Similar trends are observed in England, with the exception that:

in the long term more generalist species are showing little or no change in England (75%)
in the most recent 5-year period more generalist species are declining (67%) and more specialists species declining (50%)

Figure 3.3: Long-term and short-term changes in species trends for woodland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2023

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figures 3.3:

The indicators are based on the aggregated population trends of 37 species of woodland birds in the UK (25 species are woodland specialists and 12 species are woodland generalists).
Each row represents 100% of the species within a habitat/sub-habitat.
Each bar within a row shows the percentage of species within the indicator that are categorised as showing an increase (strong or weak increase), a decrease (strong or weak decline) or little or no change.
Change estimates for species are assessed to the penultimate year, the short-term five-year change for species spans 2018 to 2023.

Species breakdown: Woodland birds

Woodland generalists

The majority of generalist woodland species, many of which have adapted to using gardens and wooded areas in farmland landscapes, have not shown a substantial change over the long term, with only three species showing notable decline in the UK: bullfinch by 53%, tawny owl by 51% and song thrush by 46%. Of these only song thrush appears to be doing better in the short term, with tawny owl and bullfinch remaining in strong decline.

Only one species showed a long-term increase in the UK, long-tailed tit by 91%, and no species in England. Long-tailed tit is becoming more established, but the increase in abundance has not been sustained in the most recent five-year period.

Chaffinch, although not having changed enough to be classified as declining long term, has been strongly declining in the short term, likely due to the disease trichomoniasis.

Across England, some recent declines can also be seen in blackbird, lesser whitethroat and long-tailed tit.

Figure 3.4: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species for generalist woodland birds in the UK

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figure 3.4:

Figure 3.4 shows the individual population changes of 12 species of generalist woodland birds in the UK.
Only those species for which the change was significant and whose average rate of change placed it outside of the ‘little or no change’ category are labelled with their percentage change.
For visualisation purposes the axis have been truncated to between -100% and +100%. For species that exceed these limits, the exact percentage change is labelled next to the bars and marked with a † symbol.
Change estimates for species are assessed to the penultimate year, the short-term five-year change for species spans 2018 to 2023.

Woodland specialists

Eight woodland specialist species experienced strong declines across the UK, with three species declining by over 90% relative to 1970 levels (willow tit, capercaillie and spotted flycatcher). Redpoll, wood warbler and tree pipit also experienced declines of over 90% at the England scale over the same long-term period. For most of these species, we see a sustained strong decline across the most recent five-year period.

In contrast, since 1970, populations of chiffchaff have more than doubled, nuthatch have more than trebled and both blackcap and great spotted woodpecker have more than quadrupled in numbers. This shows how responses to changes in environmental conditions varies among species. In England, long-term increases were also observed in siskin and sparrowhawk populations. For chiffchaff, in particular, strong increases are recorded in the short-term period.

Of concern is the recent trend for green woodpecker across the UK, which although has shown little or no change over the long term, is strongly declining in the short term (by 22% since 2018). In England, similar shifts can be seen in garden warbler and coal tit populations.

Figure 3.5: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species for specialist woodland birds in the UK

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figure 3.5:

Figure 3.5 shows the individual population changes of 25 species of specialist woodland birds in the UK. Data for some species starts after 1970 and so for these species the long-term change represents a shorter time period.
Only those species for which the change was significant and whose average rate of change placed it outside of the ‘little or no change’ category are labelled with their percentage change.
For visualisation purposes the axis have been truncated to between -100% and +100%. For species that exceed these limits, the exact percentage change is labelled next to the bars and marked with a † symbol. In figure 3.5, chiffchaff, nuthatch, great spotted woodpecker and blackcap all exceed 100%.
Some woodpecker species names have been shortened for this plot: LS is lesser spotted, GS is greater spotted and G is green.
Change estimates for species are assessed to the penultimate year, the short-term five-year change for species spans 2018 to 2023.

Factors affecting woodland bird populations

Woodland covers 14% of the UK’s land area, providing trees and other vegetation suitable for nesting, foraging opportunities and cover from predators.

The declines in woodland birds have several known and potential causes, such as a lack of woodland management (including the reduction of traditional practices such as coppicing) and increased deer browsing pressure, both of which result in a reduced diversity of woodland structure and reduced availability of suitable nesting and foraging habitats. Changes in farmland management, such as the removal of hedgerows, adversely impacted many of the species in the indicator which have substantial populations outside of woodland, for example, in farmland and gardens. In addition, several declining woodland birds are long-distance migrants, and a decline in the extent or quality of habitats used outside of the UK in the non-breeding season (in stop-over sites or African wintering areas) may be a significant factor affecting these species. Many woodland species also occupy urban and rural habitats and populations may be affected by habitat deterioration, non-native and feral predators and disease. Potential positive factors include the increasing area of woodland cover and milder winters potentially having a beneficial impact for some species, the latter likely having facilitated northward shifts in the distribution of species such as willow warbler and tree pipit, and higher abundance particularly in Scotland. Drier and hotter summers in southern England are more likely to have negative impacts.

For more information about the evidence for this indicator, see the evidence statement Annex 1.04 Evidence Statement for C5b Woodland Birds.

Question 6

4. Breeding water and wetland bird populations in the UK and England

Accepted Answer

Indicator trend description: Water and wetland

The water and wetland bird indices have declined by 10% in the UK and 11% in England since 1975. However, for the UK this is not a meaningful change due to the lower level of confidence in the indicator. The UK and England indicators follow a similar trajectory across the time period with an initial decline in the 1980s, followed by a relative return to baseline levels. More recently, since 2019, water and wetland bird populations have experienced declines of 4% and 7% across the UK and England, respectively. The overall indicators for both the UK and England mask large differences in the trends of the individual habitat subgroup indices found within this group of birds, reflected in the wider confidence intervals, and masks some large declines and increases by species such as yellow wagtail and Cetti’s warbler, respectively.

Water and wetlands include rivers, lakes, ponds, reedbeds, coastal marshes, other wet grasslands, and lowland raised bogs. Together these total 3% of the UK’s area and provide important habitats for birds. Species included in the wetland indicator are those defined as having a positive association with waterways or wetlands, but in practice, these overlap markedly with those classified as ‘lowland wetland’ species and also include some upland birds and those also associated with farmland, for example reed bunting and yellow wagtail.

Figure 4.1: Breeding water and wetland birds for 26 species in the UK and England, 1975 to 2024

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figure 4.1:

The indicators are based on the aggregated population trends of 26 species of wetland birds in the UK and England (of which 4 species are birds of fast flowing water, 4 are birds of reedbeds, 6 are birds of slow flowing and standing water, and 8 are birds of wet grasslands). There are an additional 4 species which don’t belong to any particular sub-habitat.
The smoothed trend together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) are represented by the lines and shaded area on the chart, for UK and England.
The five year assessment period over which short-term change in the indicator is calculated is signified by the grey box. For this indicator, it spans the time period 2019 to 2024.

Key results for individual habitat subgroups indices:

The index for birds of fast flowing water was and 28% in England in 2024 than in 1975. The index also declined in the UK over the same time period, although we have low confidence in this change.
The index for birds of reedbeds increased by 40% since 1975 in the UK. This indicator also increased over the long term in England, but this is classified as little to no change due to wide confidence intervals. In the short term there was little or no change across the UK and England.
Birds of slow flowing and standing water increased by more than 50% between 1975 and the late 2000s, possibly partly reflecting the benefit from wetland creation, but since then have been in continuous decline; in 2024 the index showed little or no change compared to the baseline. However, the index has shown a 13% decrease in the most recent 5-year period in the UK (16% in England), reflecting the declines in this group in the last two decades.
The index for birds of wetland meadow and wet grassland, was 49% lower in 2024 than in 1975 in the UK. The majority of this decline has been driven by drainage and the loss of key habitats. More recently the indicator has shown signs of stability, showing little or no change in the most recent 5-year period.

The details of these sub-habitat indices may change in the future, please see here for more information.

Figure 4.2: Breeding water and wetland birds by species group in the UK and England, 1975 to 2024

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figure 4.2:

The indicators are based on the aggregated population trends of 26 species of wetland birds in the UK and in England (of which 4 species are birds of fast flowing water, 4 are birds of reedbeds, 6 are birds of slow flowing and standing water, and 8 are birds of wet grasslands). There are an additional 4 species which don’t belong to any particular sub-habitat.
Figure 4.2 shows the smoothed trend together with its 95% confidence interval for the different subgroups of birds, in the United Kingdom and England.

Table 4: Long and short-term trends at a glance for water and wetland birds in the UK and England

Index	Time period	Species number (UK / England)	Long-term change UK	Short-term change UK	Long-term change England	Short-term change England
All	1975 to 2024	26 / 26	-10%	-4%	-11%	-7%
Fast flowing water	1975 to 2024	4 / 4	-11%	-8%	-28%	-4%
Reedbeds	1975 to 2024	4 / 4	40%	9%	14%	7%
Slow flowing and standing water	1975 to 2024	6 / 6	6%	-13%	10%	-16%
Wetland meadow and wet grasslands	1975 to 2024	8 / 8	-49%	-5%	-38%	-12%

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Species trends: Water and wetland birds

Species included in the wetland indicator are those defined as having a positive association with waterways or wetlands, and also include some upland birds and those also associated with farmland, for example reed bunting and yellow wagtail. The 26 species of bird included in the water and wetland bird index are split into 4 categories of sub-habitat indicators. When interpreting these indicator trends, it should be noted that each sub-habitat trend is derived from relatively few species’ trends: 4 species are birds of fast flowing water, 4 are birds of reedbeds, 6 are birds of slow flowing and standing water, and 8 are birds of wet grasslands. There are an additional 4 species which don’t belong to any particular sub-habitat.

In the UK, 27% of wetland species have declined since 1975 and in the most recent 5-year period 50% of wetland species have declined.

In England, more species are in significant long-term (31%) and short-term (62%) decline.

Figure 4.3: Long-term and short-term changes in species for water and wetland birds in the UK, 1975 to 2023

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figures 4.3:

The indicators are based on the aggregated population trends of 26 species of wetland birds in the UK and in England (of which 4 species are birds of fast flowing water, 4 are birds of reedbeds, 6 are birds of slow flowing and standing water, and 8 are birds of wet grasslands).
Each row represents 100% of the species within a habitat/sub-habitat.
Each bar within a row shows the percentage of species within the indicator that are categorised as showing an increase (strong or weak increase), a decrease (strong or weak decline) or little or no change.
Change estimates for species are assessed to the penultimate year, the short-term five-year change for species spans 2018 to 2023.

Species breakdown: Water and wetland birds

Grey heron, kingfisher, oystercatcher and sand martin are included in the overall water and wetland bird indicator but not in any specific sub habitat indicator. These species show little or no change in the long term or short term with the exception of oystercatcher, which increased by 205% in England in the long term.

Birds of fast flowing water:

Although all the 4 species which make up this indicator are dependent on food from water, they share another characteristic of being found mainly in upland areas.

Over the long term grey wagtail have not yet been classified as declining, but their populations have been declining strongly in the UK over the short term. Across England, dipper have been declining strongly across both the long and short term, by 23% in the most recent five years.

In contrast, numbers of goosander have more than doubled since 1980. Several other species have also been increasing in the short-term period, although wide confidence intervals around these species indices mean we cannot say these are meaningful changes.

Birds of reedbeds:

In the long term, reed bunting have seen declines of 70%, which have continued into the most recent five year period.

This is contrasted by extremely strong increases of Cetti’s warbler with more than a 10-fold increase since 1988, when the species exceeded the threshold for inclusion in the indicator, following the colonisation of the UK in 1972.

Birds of slow flowing and standing water:

Over the long term, numbers of great crested grebe have decreased by 33% in the UK, which have continued to decline strongly in the most recent five-year period. Although showing little change over the long term, coot have also experienced strong declines over the short term.

Numbers of mallards have more than doubled since 1975, but have begun to experience declines in the most recent five years.

Birds of wetland meadow and wet grasslands:

Yellow wagtail is the only wetland species to be classified as declining strongly over the long term, by 95%, although this species has been showing signs of more recent stabilisation.

Redshank and snipe have also experienced long-term declines, which have continued into the most recent five year period for snipe. Other species of concern include lapwing, which have been strongly declining across England in the short term.

Both teal and little egret have been increasing over the long term, although there is some uncertainty in the teal estimates in England. Little egret have continued to increase over the short term by 19%.

Figure 4.4: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species for water and wetland birds in the UK

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figure 4.4:

Figure 4.4 shows the individual population changes of 26 species of water and wetland birds in the UK. Data for some species starts after 1975 and so for these species the long-term change represents a shorter time period.
Long-term trends were calculated from as early as 1975, although for some species data collection started later. Exceptions are sand martin (1977), curlew (1979), lapwing (1979), goosander (1980), reed warbler (1980), Cetti’s warbler (1988), great crested grebe (1994), Teal (1994), Little Egret (2006 in the UK, 2004 in England).
Habitat subgroups are denoted by the letters in brackets at the end of each species: F = Birds of fast flowing water; R = Birds of reedbeds; S = Birds of slow flowing and standing water; W = Birds of wetland meadow and wet grasslands.
Only those species for which the change was significant and whose average rate of change placed it outside of the ‘little or no change’ category are labelled with their percentage change.
For visualisation purposes the axis has been truncated to between -100% and +100%. For species that exceed these limits, the exact percentage change is labelled next to the bars and marked with a † symbol. In figure 4.4, goosander, reed warbler, little egret, mallard and Cetti’s warbler all exceed 100%.
Change estimates for species are assessed to the penultimate year, the short-term five-year change for species spans 2018 to 2023.

Factors affecting wetland bird populations

The historical declines in breeding waders resulted from land management changes such as drainage, the intensification of grassland management and the conversion of coastal and floodplain grazing marshes to arable land. Where populations persist in small fragments of high-quality habitat, their nests and young can be vulnerable to predation, which is currently thought to be limiting the recovery of several species of breeding wader. However, a range of species, particularly those associated with standing water bodies, have benefited from habitat creation, especially from the restoration of post-extraction gravel pits. Additionally, there has been a net positive impact from improved survival rates due to the trend in climate towards milder winters.

Question 7

5. Breeding seabird populations in the UK and England

Accepted Answer

Indicator trend description: Seabirds

The indicators for seabirds in the UK and England show diverging trends, particularly in the early part of the time series. Although seabird population trends will vary by region and between colonies, the main difference between the UK and England seabird indicators is their species composition. In particular, the England index is strongly influenced by the inclusion of gannet, a strongly increasing species there, but for which reliable trends are not available for the UK overall and therefore cannot be included. The UK indicator also includes northerly distributed species such as arctic skua, as well as razorbill and great black-backed gull.

The UK seabird indicator has declined by 37% since 1986. The population showed a steady decline between 2000 and 2013 and more recently a sharp decline of 15% in the five years since 2019. Although the England seabird index has declined by 14% since 1986 and there is evidence of a more recent sharp drop in the five years since 2019, the wide confidence intervals around this index means that we have low confidence in these measures. Data collection for seabirds was impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic but differences in annual coverage should be accounted for in the analyses. Trends in some seabird species have been negatively impacted by the onset of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) since 2020, and large annual differences in the numbers of affected birds at different colonies has added to the instability in some trends.

The UK coast consists of a wide variety of habitats such as sea cliffs, sand dunes, shingle ridges, machair and intertidal areas. Additionally, the area of sea around the UK amounts to three and a half times the land area of the UK (not including overseas territories). The marine habitats used for foraging by this group of birds include coastal lagoons and shallow coastal waters as well as deeper offshore waters throughout the UK. Although inland populations of seabird species are largely excluded, some species will also exploit terrestrial food sources.

Figure 5.1: Breeding seabirds for 13 species in the UK and 11 in England, 1986 to 2024

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figure 5.1:

The indicators are based on the aggregated population trends of 13 species of seabirds in the UK and 11 species in England.
Figure 5.1 shows the smoothed trend together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart, for UK and England.
The five year assessment period over which short-term change in the indicator is calculated is signified by the grey box. For this indicator, it spans the time period 2019 to 2024.

Key results for individual habitat subgroups indices: Some of the species in the seabird indicator have been categorised according to their foraging mode. Kittiwake, which feeds directly on the surface and all four terns, which catch prey using relatively shallow dives, are classified as ‘surface feeders’. Cormorant, shag and guillemot, which forage well below the surface including close to the sea floor, and gannet, which makes deep dives, are classified as ‘sub-surface feeders’.

The index for surface feeders in the UK was 39% lower in 2024 than in 1986, with a recent sharp decline of 22% over the short term. In England, the picture was very similar for surface feeders over both the long and short term, although wide uncertainty at the end of the time series means we cannot attribute this to meaningful change.
The index for subsurface feeders in the UK showed an overall decline of 18% since 1986 and 14% over the short term. In England, the subsurface feeders were doing markedly better historically, with an overall increase of 96% since 1986. However, this has developed into a sharp downturn of 20% in the most recent five years since 2019, but wide confidence intervals again mean this is not a significant change. The England subsurface feeders index is strongly influenced by the inclusion of strongly increasing gannet numbers, reliable trends of which are not available for the UK overall.

The details of these sub-habitat indices may change in the future, please see here for more information.

Figure 5.2: Breeding seabirds by species group in the UK and England, 1986 to 2024

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figure 5.2:

The indicators are based on the aggregated population trends of 13 species of seabirds in the UK and 11 species in England.
Figure 5.2 shows the smoothed trend together with its 95% confidence interval for the different subgroups of birds. Trends for the UK and England are plotted side by side.

Table 5: Long and short-term trends at a glance for Seabirds in the UK and England

Index	Time period	Species number (UK / England)	Long-term change UK	Short-term change UK	Long-term change England	Short-term change England
All	1986 to 2024	13 / 11	-37%	-15%	-14%	-21%
Subsurface feeders	1986 to 2024	3 / 4	-18%	-14%	96%	-20%
Surface feeders	1986 to 2024	5 / 5	-39%	-22%	-38%	-27%

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Species trends: Seabirds

The seabird index for the UK includes individual measures for 13 species of seabirds (11 in England), of which 5 species are categorised as surface feeders and 3 species are subsurface feeders (4 in England). When interpreting these indicator trends, it should be noted that each sub-habitat trend is derived from relatively few species’ trends.

In the UK, five (38%) seabird species have declined both since 1986 and in the most recent 5-year period. Subsurface feeder species are evenly distributed across the weak increase, weak decline and little or no change over the long term, whereas surface feeders haven’t changed meaningfully. In England, one subsurface feeder, gannet, not included in the UK indicator, is also increasing strongly.

In England, more species are increasing in the long term and fewer are increasing over the most recent 5-year period compared to the UK. Since 1986, we see similar patterns across England and the UK, but over the short term surface feeders have seen substantial declines.

Figure 5.3: Long-term and short-term changes in species trends for seabirds in the UK, 1986 to 2023

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figures 5.3:

The indicators are based on the aggregated population trends of 13 species of seabirds in the UK.
Each row represents 100% of the species within a habitat/sub-habitat.
Each bar within a row shows the percentage of species within the indicator that are categorised as showing an increase (strong or weak increase), a decrease (strong or weak decline) or little or no change.
Change estimates for species are assessed to the penultimate year, the short-term five-year change for species spans 2018 to 2023.

Species breakdown: Seabirds

The species-level breakdown of seabirds will be released once the Seabird Monitoring Programme publish their annual report.

Factors affecting seabird populations

The seabird index in the UK exhibits a different pattern to the England index, diverging most in the first half of the time period. One reason for this difference is species composition. Species such as Arctic skua breed only in Scotland whereas others are more widespread but have the bulk of their populations in northern parts of the UK, and there are insufficient data to generate an England-only trend. It was also only possible to generate an England trend for gannet based on reliable data from a single large colony, but there are insufficient data representative of the UK population to produce a reliable UK trend for this species, meaning it is absent from the UK indicator. It is also possible for trends to differ between England and in other parts of the UK, although in general the species appearing in both indicators showed similar overall long-term change (declines versus increases)

Seabird populations are impacted by a range of pressures including climate change and fisheries induced changes in prey availability, mortality and displacement associated with the expansion of offshore windfarms, introduced mammalian predators on islands, and disturbance.

Since 2020, the onset of HPAI in Britain’s seabirds has had devastating effects on many species. Particular impacts were seen among Arctic skua, many of the tern species and gannet (Tremlett, Morley and Wilson, 2024). Incidences of high mortality of species such as shag during the winter (seabird wrecks) are also likely due to a combination of weakened condition in infected birds and severe winter weather making it difficult to feed. Recent declines in populations of three of the terns, cormorant and shag are also likely attributable to avian flu impact. According to UK seabird colony counts in 2023, declines of gannet were seen across Scotland and Wales, but with corresponding increases in England. As this indicator looks at short-term species trends across the five year period 2018-2023, it is unlikely that the full impact of this disease outbreak is reflected in these indicators yet. Additionally, some of the most impacted species, such as Great skua, are not included in this indicator, which only includes around half of the species of breeding seabirds in the UK (see the seabird colony count for a broader picture).

For more information about the evidence for this indicator, see the evidence statement Annex 1.06 Evidence Statement for C5d Seabirds.

Question 8

6. Breeding upland bird populations in the UK and England

Accepted Answer

Indicator trend description: Upland birds

Upland bird populations have declined by 11% in the UK and 13% in England since 1994. The UK and England indicators both show little to no change over the short term, although there is some variability amongst individual groups of species. Upland generalists, like red kite, have increased in England over the long term, whereas upland specialists, such as red grouse, have declined over the past five years in the UK and England.

The upland areas in the UK are wild and isolated providing the ideal open habitat for a variety of bird groups. In England, these are comprised mainly of large areas in the north as well as pockets in the southwest, but are comparatively less widespread than in other UK countries. Largely open and often grazed with livestock, these areas provide the open habitats for waders and specialist moorland birds to breed or forage.

Due to its heavy reliance on the Breeding Bird Survey introduced in 1994, as well as relevant national single species surveys over this same period, this indicator covers the period 1994 to 2024. Therefore, this indicator does not cover the period where significant change was observed in some of the other habitat indicators, such as farmland and woodland.

Figure 6.1: Breeding upland birds for 32 species in the UK and 28 in England, 1994 to 2024

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figure 6.1:

The indicators are based on the aggregated population trends of 32 species of upland birds in the UK and 28 in England (of which 15 species are upland specialists (12 in England), 13 are generalists in the UK (12 in England), and 4 are upland riparian species in both the UK and England).
Figure 6.1 shows the smoothed trend together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart, for UK and England.
The five year assessment period over which short-term change in the indicator is calculated is signified by the grey box. For this indicator, it spans the time period 2019 to 2024.

Key results for individual habitat subgroups indices:

The index for upland specialists in the UK was 21% lower in 2024 than in 1994. It has continued to decrease steadily over the most recent period, by 7% since 2019. For England, the most recent five years show a steep decline of 20% and these specialist species have declined much further overall, by 38% since 1994.
The index for upland generalists in the UK has shown little change long and short term. England generalist species follow a more dramatic increase of 23% since 1994 and 10% since 2019, although wide confidence intervals mean we cannot say this short-term change is meaningful.
Riparian upland species show a similar long-term trend across the UK and England, where they decreased by 12% since 1994 (15% in England), although uncertainty in this indicator means we are unable to say this is a meaningful change. Over the most recent five years, populations of riparian species have shown little or no change.

Figure 6.2: Breeding upland birds by species group in the UK and England, 1994 to 2024

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figure 6.2:

The indicators are based on the aggregated population trends of 32 species of upland birds in the UK and 28 in England (of which 15 species are upland specialists (12 in England), 13 are generalists in the UK (12 in England), and 4 are riparian species in both the UK and England.
Figure 6.2 shows the smoothed trend together with its 95% confidence interval for the different subgroups of birds. Trends for the UK and England are plotted side by side.

Table 6: Long and short-term trends at a glance for upland birds in the UK and England

Index	Time period	Species number (UK / England)	Long-term change UK	Short-term change UK	Long-term change England	Short-term change England
All	1986 to 2024	13 / 11	-37%	-15%	-14%	-21%
Subsurface feeders	1986 to 2024	3 / 4	-18%	-14%	96%	-20%
Surface feeders	1986 to 2024	5 / 5	-39%	-22%	-38%	-27%

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Species trends: Upland birds

The upland bird indices for the UK and England includes individual measures for 32 species of upland birds in the UK and 28 species in England. These are disaggregated into 3 subgroups: specialists, generalists and riparian species. The upland specialist indices are comprised of the population trends for 15 species in the UK (12 species in England) characteristic of and found solely in upland, typically open moorland habitats. Upland generalists (13 species in the UK and 12 species in England) are widespread and often common in uplands but also found in other habitats such as lowland farms or woodland. For these species, most known to occupy several different habitats, the population trends used are derived solely from surveys in upland habitat. Upland riparian species (4 species in the UK and 4 England) are comprised of the population trends for species strongly associated with upland rivers and streams. The overall trend masks different underlying trends between these different groups.

In the UK:

38% of generalist species have declined since 1994, but with 54% increasing in the most recent 5-year period.
33% of specialist species have declined since 1994 and in the most recent 5-year period 44% of specialist species are in decline.
25% of riparian species have declined since 1994 and in the most recent 5-year period this has increased to 50% of riparian species in decline.

In England, the trends follow a similar pattern with the following deviations:

fewer generalist species are in long and short-term decline (17% and 25% respectively).
more specialist species are in short-term decline (67%), although one species is increasing over the same period (11%)
no riparian species are increasing and more species are decreasing over the long term (50%).

Figure 6.3: Long-term and short-term changes in species trends for upland birds in the UK, 1994 to 2023

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figures 6.3:

The indicators are based on the aggregated population trends of 32 species of upland birds in the UK (15 species are upland specialists, 13 species are upland generalists and 4 species are upland riparian species).
Over the long term, 32 upland species were assessed but only 26 could be assessed over the short term
Each row represents 100% of the species within a habitat/sub-habitat.
Each bar within a row shows the percentage of species within the indicator that are categorised as showing an increase (strong or weak increase), a decrease (strong or weak decline) or little or no change.
Change estimates for species are assessed to the penultimate year, the short-term five-year change for species spans 2018 to 2023.

Species breakdown: Upland birds

Upland generalists

Since 1994, numbers of red kite and stonechat increased in the UK by more than 300% and continue to increase in the most recent five years.

In contrast, numbers of peregrine have declined in the long term by 82%, although there is too much uncertainty in the short term to meaningfully assess the most recent change.

Some generalist species which are showing little or no change since 1994 are beginning to change in the short term, for example oystercatcher and skylark are increasing, whereas buzzard are decreasing.

Upland specialists

Since 1994, numbers of whinchat have declined strongly by 60%, a trend which has continued into the short term in England. Whilst red grouse showed little or no change since 1994, it has showed a more recent decline of 31% over the last five years.

Upland Riparian

Since 1994, most upland riparian species in the UK showed little overall change, except for common sandpiper, which showed a moderate decline (32%) and goosander which showed a moderate, albeit not significant, increase. In England, dipper also shows a similar decline over the long term and continues to decline strongly into the short term.

Although grey wagtail is not declining enough over the long term to be classified as such, over the short term this species has experienced an 18% decline in the UK.

Figure 6.4: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species for upland birds in the UK

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figure 6.4:

Figure 6.4 shows the individual population changes of 32 species of upland birds in the UK. Data for some species starts after 1994 and so for these species the long-term change represents a shorter time period.
Habitat subgroups are denoted by the letters in brackets at the end of each species: G = upland generalist species; R = species of riparian habitats; S = upland specialist species.
Only those species for which the change was significant and whose average rate of change placed it outside of the ‘little or no change’ category are labelled with their percentage change.
For visualisation purposes the axis has been truncated to between -100% and +100%. For species that exceed these limits, the exact percentage change is labelled next to the bars and marked with a † symbol. In figure 6.5, stonechat and red kite both exceed 100% increase in the long term.
Change estimates for species are assessed to the penultimate year, the short-term five-year change for species spans 2018 to 2023.

Factors affecting upland bird populations

Upland birds are vulnerable to a number of pressures contributing to the pattern of overall decline, particularly among the upland specialists. UK uplands have a long history of intensive sheep grazing, game management and commercial afforestation. Reviews of causes of change have identified changes in grazing pressure, forest expansion, especially by non-native conifers, level of site-based predator control and climate change effects such as droughts and increased temperatures reducing upland species ranges, as some of the major pressures for open-nesting moorland species whereas upland passerines are affected by reductions in vegetation structure and composition. Raptors have benefited from reduced persecution although this still remains a threat. The overall stability in generalist species may reflect a balance between long-term negative impacts of land use changes and benefits of climate change as more adaptable species are able to colonise new areas and increase in abundance.

Question 9

7. Wintering waterbird populations in the UK and England

Accepted Answer

Indicator trend description: Wintering waterbirds

Wintering waterbird populations have increased by 92% in the UK and 88% in England since 1975/1976. However, since the early 2000s the index has been in decline, although this has stabilised to little or no change over the most recent five year period. This historic decline is mostly driven by wildfowl, such as Bewick’s swan and scaup, rather than wader species. This is contrasted by recent increases across both groups, including avocet and brent goose. This indicator relates to numbers of these species during the winter period from September to the following March each year for wildfowl and from November to March for waders.

The term waterbird is used to describe all birds that inhabit or depend on water and wetland habitats; this chapter is about waterbirds that over-winter in the UK, some of which also breed here. The wintering waterbird trends in this chapter are not included in the all breeding birds index, but that index does include breeding population trends for species in the wintering waterbird indicator which also breed in the UK and for which breeding trends are available. Wintering populations typically originate from breeding populations outside the UK, which represent completely different populations or races.

Figure 7.1: Wintering waterbirds for 46 species in the UK and 41 in England, 1975/1976 to 2023/2024

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figure 7.1:

The indicators are based on the aggregated population trends of 46 species or races of wintering waterbirds birds in the UK and 41 in England, of which 15 species are waders in the UK and in England and 31 species or races are wildfowl in the UK (26 in England).
Figure 7.1 shows the smoothed trend (solid line) together with the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) for UK and England.
Data from wintering waterbirds monitoring schemes are based largely on full counts at colonies or at wetland and coastal sites of markedly varying size. This means that bootstrapping methods cannot be applied reliably and hence trends for these groups are currently presented without confidence intervals.
As there are no 95% confidence intervals for wintering waterbirds, we instead provide the unsmoothed index as a view of the underlying variability of the data.
Each year of data corresponds to a wintering period from September of that year to the following March.
The five year assessment period over which short-term change in the indicator is calculated is signified by the grey box. For this indicator, it spans the time period 2018/2019 to 2023/2024.

Key results for individual habitat subgroups indices:

The index for waders in the UK was 91% higher in 2023/2024 than in 1975/1976. The index has been relatively stable or declining very slowly since the late 90s, with a recent increase of 7% over the last five years. For England, the waders show a very similar trend of 83% increases since 1975/1976, declining since the early 2000s but an increase of 9% over the last five years.
The index for wildfowl in the UK was 96% higher in 2023/2024 than in 1975/1976. The index has been in decline since the early 2000s, with a decrease of 9% in the most recent five years. For England, the wildfowl show a very similar trend of a 94% increase since 1975/1976 and no change over the last five years.

Figure 7.2: Wintering waterbirds birds by species group in the UK and England, 1975/1976 to 2023/2024

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figure 7.2:

The indicators are based on the aggregated population trends of 46 species or races of wintering waterbirds birds in the UK and 34 in England, of which 15 species are waders in the UK and in England and 31 species or races are wildfowl in the UK (26 in England).
Figure 7.2 shows the smoothed trend (solid line) together with the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) for the different subgroups of birds. Trends for the UK and England are plotted side by side.
Data from wintering waterbirds monitoring schemes are based largely on full counts at colonies or at wetland and coastal sites of markedly varying size. This means that bootstrapping methods cannot be applied reliably and hence trends for these groups are currently presented without confidence intervals.
As there are no 95% confidence intervals for wintering waterbirds, we instead provide the unsmoothed index as a view of the underlying variability of the data.
Each year of data corresponds to a wintering period from September of that year to the following March.

Table 7: Long and short-term trends at a glance for wintering waterbirds birds in the UK and England

Index	Time period	Species number (UK / England)	Long-term change UK	Short-term change UK	Long-term change England	Short-term change England
All	1975/1976 to 2023/2024	46 / 41	92%	-4%	88%	2%
Waders	1975/1976 to 2023/2024	15 / 15	91%	7%	83%	9%
Wildfowl	1975/1976 to 2023/2024	31 / 26	96%	-9%	94%	-1%

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Species trends: Wintering waterbirds

The wintering waterbirds index for both the UK and England includes individual measures for 46 species (or races) of wintering waterbirds in the UK and 41 in England, of which 15 species are waders in the UK (15 in England) and 31 species (or races) are wildfowl in the UK (26 in England). The overall trend masks different underlying trends for wader species and wildfowl species.

In the UK:

No wader species have declined in winter numbers since 1975/1976, and 47% have increased.
In contrast, for the most recent five year period, fewer winter populations are increasing with 27% of wader populations declining.
13% of wildfowl wintering populations have declined since 1975/1976 and in the most recent five year period 55% of wildfowl populations have declined.

In England the trends are very similar, though more wintering wildfowl populations declined over the long term (19%) and fewer over the short term (42%).

Figure 7.3: Long-term and short-term changes in species trends for wintering waterbirds birds in the UK, 1975/1976 to 2022/2023

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figures 7.3:

The indicators are based on the aggregated population trends of 46 species or races of wintering waterbirds birds in the UK and 41 in England, of which 15 species are waders in the UK (15 in England) and 31 species or races are wildfowl in the UK (26 in England).
Each row represents 100% of the species within a habitat/sub-habitat.
Each bar within a row shows the percentage of species within the indicator that are categorised as showing an increase (strong or weak increase), a decrease (strong or weak decline) or little or no change.
Change estimates for species are assessed to the penultimate year, the short-term five-year change for species spans 2017/2018 to 2022/2023.

Species breakdown: Wintering waterbirds

The wintering waterbird indicator breaks down some species (barnacle goose, brent goose, greylag goose and white-fronted goose) into distinct races and/or flyway populations. These populations breed and winter in different areas within and outside the UK, and hence are treated separately here, as in most conservation assessments and initiatives.

The UK and England versions of the wintering waterbird indicator also have a different species composition. Icelandic greylag goose, Greenland white-fronted goose, light-bellied brent goose (of Nearctic origin), and both populations of barnacle goose (Greenland and Svalbard) only appear for the UK indicator.

Waders

Since the winter of 1975/1976 in the UK, the indices for avocet and black-tailed godwit showed the strongest increases, wintering numbers have now increased substantially (and avocet is only included in the indicator since 1989/1990). Golden and grey plover also show strong increases long term, more than doubling in this time period, although golden plover has declined by 15% in the most recent five year period.

Species of concern in the more recent period are the curlew, lapwing and bar-tailed godwit, all declining since the winter of 2017/2018.

These figures for England look very similar both long and short term, although in the short term turnstone also increased strongly.

Figure 7.4: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species for wading species of winter waterbirds in the UK

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figure 7.4:

Figure 7.4 shows the individual population changes of 15 species of wader species in the UK. Data for some species starts after 1975/76 and so for these species the long-term change represents a shorter time period.
Only those species for which the change was significant and whose average rate of change placed it outside of the ‘little or no change’ category are labelled with their percentage change.
For visualisation purposes the axis has been truncated to between -100% and +100%. For species that exceed these limits, the exact percentage change is labelled next to the bars and marked with a † symbol.
Change estimates for species are assessed to the penultimate year, the short-term five-year change for species spans 2017/2018 to 2022/2023.

Wildfowl

For wildfowl there are many more species strongly increasing since the winter of 1975/1976, with the strongest increases of over 1000% experienced by British/Irish greylag goose, gadwall and Svalbard light-bellied Brent goose. The short-term period since the winter of 2017/2018 shows a much more mixed picture. Strong increases by light-bellied Brent goose (of Nearctic origin) are contrasted by decreases by dark-bellied Brent goose.

Since the winter of 1975/1976, decreases were observed for the Bewick’s swan, scaup, European white-fronted goose and pochard in the UK, which continue as strong decreases in the short-term period.

Although Icelandic greylag goose is not declining enough over the long term to be classified as such, over the short term this species has experienced a 18% decline. A similar picture can be seen in England for the great crested grebe.

Several species have seen recent strongly positive trends, particularly eider in England, which have historically been declining and are now increasing by 45% since the winter of 2017/2018.

Figure 7.5: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species for wildfowl species of wintering waterbirds in the UK

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Notes for Figure 7.5:

Figure 7.5 shows the individual population trends of 31 species or races of wildfowl species in the UK. Data for some species starts after 1975/76 and so for these species the long-term change represents a shorter time period.
Some species names have been shortened for this plot: LB is light-bellied, DB is dark-bellied. Regions have been included in brackets to describe the origin of any sub-populations of species.
Only those species for which the change was significant and whose average rate of change placed it outside of the ‘little or no change’ category are labelled with their percentage change.
For visualisation purposes the axis has been truncated to between -100% and +100%. For species that exceed these limits, the exact percentage change is labelled next to the bars and marked with a † symbol.
Change estimates for species are assessed to the penultimate year, the short-term five-year change for species spans 2017/2018 to 2022/2023.

Factors affecting wintering waterbird populations

Populations of wintering wetland birds are affected by a range of factors including conditions in the high latitude countries where they breed, with breeding productivity increasing for species including black-tailed godwit but decreasing for others such as Greenland white-fronted geese. There is good evidence of a strong climate change impact on the indicator in recent years, with milder winters leading to the wintering ranges of many species, including mallard, pintail, goldeneye, pochard, Bewick’s swan, ringed plover, curlew and bar-tailed godwit, increasingly shifting away from the UK. In addition, local changes, such as wetland creation and changes in agricultural management, have had an impact on waterbird populations within the UK.

Like seabirds, wintering waterbirds have been impacted by the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak. In winter 2021/22, around one third of Svalbard barnacle geese died in the Solway Firth in Scotland. The following winter, thousands of Greenland barnacle geese died on Islay in Scotland, and there have been reports of significant mortality in pink-footed and greylag geese and in mute swan. It remains to be seen whether HPAI has longer term impacts on wintering populations of ducks, swans or geese.

For more information about the evidence for this indicator, see the evidence statement Annex 1.04 Evidence Statement for C5e Wintering Waterbirds.

Question 10

Main notes: methodological detail, limitations of the indicators and further information

Accepted Answer

The bird population indices have been compiled in conjunction with the British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC), and the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) from a wide range of sources, principally:

the Common Birds Census (from 1966 to 2000)
the BTO/JNCC/RSPB Breeding Bird Survey (from 1994 to 2024)
the BTO/ Waterways Bird Survey(from 1974 to 2007)
the BTO/JNCC/RSPB Waterways Breeding Bird Survey with support from the Environment Agency (from 1998 to 2024)
the BTO/RSPB/JNCC Wetland Bird Survey counts (from 1975/1976 to 2023/24)
the WWT Goose & Swan Monitoring Programme in partnership with the JNCC and Scottish Natural Heritage
the Seabird Monitoring Programme (from 1986 to 2024)
the Periodic Seabird censuses supplied by JNCC, RSPB, the Seabird Group, SOTEAG (Shetland Oil Terminal Environmental Advisory Group) and other partners
Monitoring of scarce and rare breeding birds by the Statutory Conservation Agency and RSPB Annual Breeding Bird Scheme (SCARABBS) and the Rare Breeding Birds Panel (from 1970 to 2024)

The census sources provide an indication of the average annual rate of change between censuses for some species, and this is assumed to apply to each year between censuses

More information about individual species trends, including photographs and background to the changes in population are available via the BTO website. Some regional analysis is also published as part of the Breeding Bird Survey, including for other constituent countries of the UK. More information about the State of UK birds can be accessed through the RSPB website. Details on the monitoring of scarce and rare breeding birds, including annual reports, can be found on the website of the Rare Breeding Birds Panel.

More information on how a smoothed trend was produced when a year of data is missing is in the BTO Research Report ‘Production of smoothed population trends when a year of data is missing’ on BTO’s ‘Bird Indicators’ web page.

For more information on the Upland Indicator, see BTO Research Report ‘Upland Indicator Report’ on BTO’s ‘Bird Indicators’ web page.

The indices cover birds that are native to the UK, excluding rare (less than 500 breeding pairs, or 300 in England) and introduced species. The indices portray the annual changes in abundance. Within the indices, each species is given equal weighting, and the overall index is the geometric mean of the individual species indices. Individual species populations within the index may be increasing or decreasing, irrespective of the overall index trends. Species indices are derived by modelling count data and estimates are revised when new data or improved methodologies are developed and applied retrospectively to earlier years.

The indices are considered to give reliable medium to long-term trends, but strong reliance should not be attached to short-term changes from year to year.

The individual species included within each indicator are given in the relevant data sets published alongside this update for a list of birds in each group.

Smoothing is a standard procedure in the generation and reporting of bird population trends. The smoothing methodology involves the application of a thin plate smoothing spline to remove the short-term peaks and troughs due to weather effects and any between year sampling error. Research by the BTO and RSPB further developed this procedure to enable the production of an indicator based on smoothed individual species’ indices.

Bootstrapping, a standard statistical technique, is used to calculate 95% confidence intervals in the indicators and in change over any specified period. The width of the confidence interval for a given indicator is influenced by the number of species in that indicator and the precision of the individual species trends that make up that indicator. The precision of trends varies between species; this is true even for species for which trends come from the same source, due to the variation in sample size. Therefore, the size of confidence intervals varies among habitat indicators.

For the farmland bird index, it should be noted that although 20 species were originally chosen for the index, a reliable annual index is not available for barn owl, so that species is excluded.

For species where the annual results are published up to two years after the year of data collection (for example, species with data from the Rare Birds Breeding Panel), we apply a short extrapolation based on the most recent trend period to allow these species to be included in the indicators.

For more information, please see the Technical Background document associated with this release.

Question 11

Development plan

Accepted Answer

Future developments to be implemented over the coming years are:

Review the species to be included in all measures and incorporate any additional species where data availability allows. This includes considering species lists for each habitat breakdown, balancing the latest available data with the consistency of the indicator.
Review the inclusion of sub-habitat indicators and how representative they are, particularly for those with relatively low numbers of species.
Following consultation on a review of the analytical methods used in the Seabird Monitoring Programme (SMP) species population indices, including confidence estimation, new analytical approaches will be developed and tested for the seabirds chapter. When available, the resulting trends will be incorporated into the aggregate seabird indicators.
Consider alternative methods for assessing change at the species level. This includes considering the time period over which long and short term assessments are carried out, as well as the current Birds of Conservation Concern thresholds for individual species trends.

Question 12

Feedback and User Engagement

Accepted Answer

In line with Defra’s User Engagement for Statistics Policy Statement and the Code of Practice for Statistics, we are committed to ensuring that our statistics are of value and meet user needs and welcome any feedback or suggestions regarding this publication.

To provide feedback, you can email us at: biodiversity@defra.gov.uk

You can also register as a user of the biodiversity and wildlife statistics publications. Registering as a user means we will be able to contact you regarding any user engagement activities that we may run, such as seeking feedback on proposed changes.

Alternatively, you can engage with us via the StatsUserNetwork forum Environment, Climate and Nature group. The StatsUserNetwork is a forum for users and producers of statistics to share knowledge, ask questions, and discuss all things data.

Index	Time period	Species number (UK / England)	Long-term change UK	Short-term change UK	Long-term change England	Short-term change England
All	1994 to 2024	32 / 28	-11%	-1%	-13%	-6%
Generalists	1994 to 2024	13 / 12	3%	8%	23%	10%
Riparian	1994 to 2024	4 / 4	-12%	-8%	-15%	-4%
Specialists	1994 to 2024	15 / 12	-21%	-7%	-38%	-20%

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Use of the data

Accredited Official Statistics

Key changes to the UK and England wild bird publication

Summary

Introduction

Why monitor bird populations

Understanding the bird population indices

Assessing trends

1. Native breeding wild bird populations (all bird species)

All bird species Indicator trend description

Figure 1.1: Populations of 130 wild bird species in the UK and 118 in England, 1970 to 2024

Variation in habitat index trends

Figure 1.2: Populations of wild birds in the UK and in England by habitat, 1970 to 2024

Table 1: Long and short-term trends at a glance for the UK and England

Species trends

Figure 1.3: Long-term (1970 to 2023) and short-term changes (2018 to 2023) in species trends for the all birds species indicator

Variation in individual species trends for different habitats

Figure 1.4: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for different habitats in the UK

2. Breeding farmland bird populations in the UK and England

Indicator trend description: Farmland birds

Figure 2.1: Breeding farmland birds for 19 species in the UK and England, 1970 to 2024

Figure 2.2: Breeding farmland birds by species group in the UK and England, 1970 to 2024

Table 2: Long and short-term trends at a glance for Farmland birds in the UK and England

Species trends: Farmland birds

Figure 2.3: Long-term and short-term changes in species trends for farmland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2023

Species breakdown: Farmland birds

Figure 2.4: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species for farmland birds in the UK

Factors affecting farmland bird populations

3. Breeding woodland bird populations in the UK and England

Indicator trend description: Woodland birds

Figure 3.1: Breeding woodland birds for 37 species in the UK and 34 in England, 1970 to 2024

Figure 3.2: Breeding woodland birds by species group in the UK and England, 1970 to 2024

Table 3: Long and short-term trends at a glance for Woodland birds in the UK and England

Species trends: Woodland birds

Figure 3.3: Long-term and short-term changes in species trends for woodland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2023

Species breakdown: Woodland birds

Figure 3.4: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species for generalist woodland birds in the UK

Figure 3.5: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species for specialist woodland birds in the UK

Factors affecting woodland bird populations

4. Breeding water and wetland bird populations in the UK and England

Indicator trend description: Water and wetland

Figure 4.1: Breeding water and wetland birds for 26 species in the UK and England, 1975 to 2024

Figure 4.2: Breeding water and wetland birds by species group in the UK and England, 1975 to 2024

Table 4: Long and short-term trends at a glance for water and wetland birds in the UK and England

Species trends: Water and wetland birds

Figure 4.3: Long-term and short-term changes in species for water and wetland birds in the UK, 1975 to 2023

Species breakdown: Water and wetland birds

Figure 4.4: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species for water and wetland birds in the UK

Factors affecting wetland bird populations

5. Breeding seabird populations in the UK and England

Indicator trend description: Seabirds

Figure 5.1: Breeding seabirds for 13 species in the UK and 11 in England, 1986 to 2024

Figure 5.2: Breeding seabirds by species group in the UK and England, 1986 to 2024

Table 5: Long and short-term trends at a glance for Seabirds in the UK and England

Species trends: Seabirds

Figure 5.3: Long-term and short-term changes in species trends for seabirds in the UK, 1986 to 2023

Species breakdown: Seabirds

Factors affecting seabird populations

6. Breeding upland bird populations in the UK and England

Indicator trend description: Upland birds

Figure 6.1: Breeding upland birds for 32 species in the UK and 28 in England, 1994 to 2024

Figure 6.2: Breeding upland birds by species group in the UK and England, 1994 to 2024

Table 6: Long and short-term trends at a glance for upland birds in the UK and England

Species trends: Upland birds

Figure 6.3: Long-term and short-term changes in species trends for upland birds in the UK, 1994 to 2023

Species breakdown: Upland birds

Figure 6.4: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species for upland birds in the UK

Factors affecting upland bird populations

7. Wintering waterbird populations in the UK and England

Indicator trend description: Wintering waterbirds

Figure 7.1: Wintering waterbirds for 46 species in the UK and 41 in England, 1975/1976 to 2023/2024

Figure 7.2: Wintering waterbirds birds by species group in the UK and England, 1975/1976 to 2023/2024

Table 7: Long and short-term trends at a glance for wintering waterbirds birds in the UK and England

Species trends: Wintering waterbirds

Figure 7.3: Long-term and short-term changes in species trends for wintering waterbirds birds in the UK, 1975/1976 to 2022/2023

Species breakdown: Wintering waterbirds

Figure 7.4: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species for wading species of winter waterbirds in the UK

Figure 7.5: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species for wildfowl species of wintering waterbirds in the UK

Factors affecting wintering waterbird populations