Research and analysis

Environment Agency climate adaptation reporting fourth round: climate resilience for a better environment

Published 15 July 2025

Applies to England

Foreword

The Environment Agency exists to protect and enhance the environment, whilst contributing towards sustainable development. Climate change represents a profound challenge to this mission because it is a break with the past. Tomorrow’s environment will be different to yesterday’s. Our relationship to it must evolve accordingly.

The underlying theme of this report is transformation – the inevitable transformation of our climate and environment, which is locked-in due to historic emissions, even if global Net Zero policies are successful. And the necessary transformation of environmental stewardship – how we relate to the environment, how we protect and enhance it, and how we rely on it to provide the foundations for our communities, wildlife and prosperity.

It is now certain that we are living in a less predictable and less benign climate. ‘Weird weather’ has become normal. Records tumble so frequently that they have stopped being newsworthy. Climate change is no longer a distant concern – it is now a lived reality that the Environment Agency can see unfolding across the country. Rising temperatures, rising sea levels and changing rainfall patterns are reshaping our environment and bringing complex challenges. We see more floods, increased pressure on water supplies and changing ecosystems. The government’s climate change risk assessment tells us that these trends will accelerate. The Climate Change Committee’s analyses tell us that the country is largely unprepared for them.

Foresight of the future gives us the opportunity to stop the climate crisis becoming an environmental and social tragedy. It’s an opportunity that we cannot afford to miss.

Our new corporate strategy builds on our long-term goal to support national climate resilience by accounting for climate change in our work. Climate resilience now is integral to our strategic management of flood and coastal risks. Environmental regulation considers how climate change will exacerbate future risks. Water management is evolving to balance increasing and competing demands. We are rebuilding ecosystems that give nature space to adapt and reduce flood risk to communities.

This report gives many case studies of successful adaptation. It also sets out the challenges (risks) that remain and our response to them. Many of these challenges require a whole-society approach – resilience that can only be achieved through concerted, coordinated and transformative action.

The benefits of this transformation are clear. In economic terms, adaptation offers an extraordinary return on investment. For every £1 invested in flood defences, around £8 of damages are prevented. Action to increase climate resilience protects and enables wider economic activity, as the government’s working paper for the 10-Year Infrastructure Strategy notes. The importance of this resilience cannot be overstated. The Climate Change Committee (CCC) estimate that unchecked climate impacts could reduce UK economic output by 7% gross domestic product (GDP) by 2050. Or to put it another way, adaptation is a prerequisite for economic growth as well as environmental protection.

Climate change is one of the defining challenges of our time. Transforming the Environment Agency’s work to deliver climate resilience will ensure that people, nature and businesses prosper in the decades ahead.

Introduction

The Environment Agency is an executive non-departmental public body established in 1996 and sponsored by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). In our roles as regulator, operator, adviser, responder and research centre, we are tasked with:

• protecting and enhancing the environment as a whole
• contributing towards sustainable development

Our remit primarily covers England, though our influence and collaboration with other UK environmental bodies and partners extends beyond England’s borders.

This report looks at how climate risks affect the delivery of our statutory duties and our operations (such as our estate, supply chains and business continuity).

Our adaptation risks and challenges

We have updated the risk assessment in our last adaptation report to reflect:

• current legislation and government policies
• increased focus on our operational risks
• the latest evidence on climate change
• our experience of recent extreme weather events and their impact on our work

Strategic risks to our environmental duties

Many of our statutory duties, operations and ambitions for the environment are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Many of the risks that we face interact to amplify each other. For example, floods can also cause water pollution. These findings are consistent with the CCC’s assessments and the government’s risk assessment under the Climate Change Act.

We are taking transformative action to mitigate many risks – but we expect that environmental incidents such as floods, water shortages and pollution will become more common in the future if current climate trends continue.

Our risk assessment also shows that investing in adaptation reduces risks from climate impacts. The next 5-10 years will be a crucial period for adaptation – this is our chance to reduce long term climate risks before they cause significant disruption and harm.

Annex A gives a detailed description of our risks from the physical impacts of climate change.

Flood and coastal risk management

The Environment Agency is legally required to exercise a general supervision over all matters relating to flood and coastal erosion risk management in accordance with the Flood and Water Management Act 2010 – what is known as its ‘strategic overview’ role. This role is distinct from the Environment Agency’s operational role to manage flood defences. It allows the Environment Agency to act in a strategic capacity and to provide strategic leadership for the management of flooding and coastal change from all sources, in England. Key parts of our strategic overview role include:

• providing an overview of the current and future risks from all sources of flooding and coastal erosion
• providing leadership and direction by advising government and other partners on managing those risks from all sources of flooding and coastal change, including impacts on people, businesses, infrastructure and the environment, as well as future investment needs
• providing data and evidence – through risk mapping, modelling and assessment to help inform decisions made by risk management authorities, and to support accurate flood forecasting and warnings

The Flood and Water Management Act 2010 also places a statutory duty on the Environment Agency to develop a National Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Strategy for England. This strategy describes what needs to be done by all risk management authorities involved in flood and coastal erosion risk management for the benefit of people and places.

We have invested significantly over the past decade to develop a world-leading climate adaptation approach for our flood oversight role. For example, by modelling how climate change will affect future flood risk, providing advice to planning authorities, and pioneering ‘adaptation pathways’ decision-making that allows long-term planning in the face of climate uncertainty (see case study below). We also develop and support alternative resilience measures like natural flood management, sustainable urban drainage systems and property flood resilience.

We consider how climate impacts will influence what funding is needed to keep our country resilient to flooding and coastal change through our advice to government. We are also aligning with the government’s 10 year infrastructure strategy by developing a ten year pipeline of flood and coastal risk management schemes, ensuring government funding is invested in the most at risk places, maximising value for money.

Case study: Adaptation Pathways to Manage Flood Risks

Our 2012 Thames Estuary 2100 Plan was the world’s first flood risk management strategy to use an adaptation pathways approach. Rather than attempting to predict a climate scenario in advance and locking in an approach, the pathways approach sets decision points based on actual sea level change. At any of these decision points, there are a range of pathways available. This means we can adapt our response over time, ensuring we take action only when it becomes necessary. For example, while building a new flood barrier remains an option, the pathways framework allows us to delay expensive investments like this until we have clear evidence that it is needed. The approach ensures long term resilience while avoiding unnecessary expenditure.

Since pioneering this approach in the Thames Estuary, we have applied it to further long term adaptation plans for flood risk management for the Severn, the Humber, and the Don.

Although adaptation is integral to our management of flood and coastal risks, the Environment Agency cannot prevent all flooding alone. Around 6.3 million properties (homes and businesses) in England are in areas at risk of flooding from rivers, the sea and/or surface water. Our updated national assessment of flood and coastal erosion risk in England (NaFRA2) shows that, with climate change, the total number of properties in areas at risk from rivers and the sea or surface water could increase to around 8 million by mid-century. In other words, 1 in 4 properties in England will be in areas at risk of flooding from rivers and the sea or surface water by mid-century. 

About a third (34%) of water pumping stations and treatment plants in England are currently in areas at risk of flooding, as are other public buildings, such as schools (21%) and hospitals (26%). By the mid-century, 46% of roads and 54% of railways will be in areas at risk. 

We produce information on current and future coastal erosion risk. Around 3,500 properties are in areas at risk of coastal erosion between now and 2055 and this number will increase to around 10,100 properties by 2105. Around half of these properties are residential. The other half are non-residential properties such as schools, hospitals, retail and leisure businesses.

This increasing level of flood and coastal risk also affects our asset management and incident response roles as discussed below.

Priority adaptation actions

We will undertake a review of the national Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Strategy in 2026.

We will develop and deliver a new 10 year flood and coastal investment programme that reflects where current and future flood risk impacts are greatest and represents the best value for money. This will target investment to the areas that need it most across the whole of England. The first 3 years of the programme will start in April 2026 enabled by the government’s commitment to invest £4.2 billion to build and maintain flood defences, protecting communities across England from the dangers of flooding over that period.

Water resources

Water underpins the operations of multiple different sectors. It is critical in preserving and safeguarding the natural environment and without swift action across different sectors to respond to current and future pressures, including from climate change, water supplies are at risk, jeopardising the environment and the growth agenda.

Without action, there is a likelihood of interruptions to supplies, leading to environmental damage, restricted economic growth, and a lack of resilience in the energy sector.

The Environment Agency’s role in managing water resources can be considered a balancing act – making sure that there is enough water for domestic and business requirements while not compromising the water needs of the environment. It is essential to make sure that these needs are considered not only now but also in the future.

Climate change and population growth means there will be less available water with a greater demand for it.

The impact of climate change will mean the amount of water available by 2050 could be reduced by 10-15% – with some rivers seeing 50-80% less water during the summer months. Hotter and drier summers, like the 2022 drought and heatwave (which saw water-use skyrocket), will put exceptional strain on water supplies and the natural environment. This reduction will be compounded by the increased variability in both rainfall intensity and where it falls. We also expect population and economic growth to increase water demand for public water supply significantly. Forecasts for water use for food production, energy generation, cooling of data centres and for direct industrial abstraction are also set to increase that demand by a further 1 billion litres per day.

These changes will affect how we manage water resources, necessitating significant action on demand management, leakage control and resource development across all sectors of use:

• greater levels of investment will be needed to ensure sufficient resilience
• there will be competing demands on water resources coupled with a variable, but overall, reduced environmental capacity to provide supplies
• there will be a greater need for collaboration between sectors of use to identify and deliver shared solutions
• water transfer, storage and augmentation schemes may become less reliable, with variable and unreliable rainfall patterns, low summer water levels, increased demands and increased maintenance requirements from prolonged operation in extreme weather

Our primary response to these risks is through the National Framework for Water Resources, published 17 June 2025. This sets out how the country’s water needs will be met to 2050, by:

• improving resilience to extreme droughts
• ensuring the water industry and users are prepared for the future impacts of climate change
• serving a growing population and thriving economy
• marking a transition to longer term water resilience planning to protect and improve the environment

The Framework drives an enhanced approach to multi-sector water resources planning through five regional water resources groups. It informs water company Water Resource Management Plans and has helped to justify £8 billion of investment in improving water supply resilience and environmental sustainability between 2025 and 2030. Projects include new reservoirs, major water transfers, water recycling schemes, desalination schemes and a pipeline of new options to enable adaptive planning.

These projects could potentially supply up to 2.8 billion litres of water a day before 2050 and are being assessed by the Regulator’s Alliance for Progressing Infrastructure Development (RAPID) – a partnership between Ofwat, the Environment Agency and the Drinking Water Inspectorate.

In 2025, we will work with stakeholders to extend the Framework to 2100 and beyond.

Priority adaptation action

Implement a revised National Framework for Water Resources. This will identify solutions to manage the significant water risks associated with climate change, including to improve the resilience of water supplies, protect the water environment and align with wider water planning processes so solutions are joined-up and deliver integrated outcomes.

Water quality

Climate change is altering how chemicals and contaminants move through the environment. More intense and heavy rainfall can overwhelm water treatment infrastructure and flush contaminants into water courses. It can also wash sediments and contaminants from urban areas, contaminated land and farmland into rivers and streams. Rising temperatures will increase the mobility, persistence and toxicity of some chemicals in the environment, so that they present a greater risk. These effects are compounded during dry spells when there is less water in watercourses to dilute any contaminants.  

These changes will make it more difficult to achieve good water quality:

• it will be harder to plan and secure the investment needed to ensure sufficient water quality as the required intervention increases in scale
• the risk of pollution from discharges will increase due to heavier rainfall, especially when heavy rainfall follows dry periods and overwhelms water infrastructure
• diffuse pollution risks will rise, as more frequent and intense rainfall mobilises contaminants, chemicals and sediments from agriculture and urban areas
• freshwater ecosystems may become more vulnerable to pollutants because they are stressed by increasing temperatures or other changes driven by climate

We can mitigate these risks through:

• accounting for climate-driven environmental change in the National Framework for Water Resources
• improved monitoring. For example, all storm overflows across the sewerage network are now fitted with monitors compared with just 7% in 2010
• reviewing environmental permits for discharges to check that they are resilient to changing flows and water temperature
• advising landowners and spatial planners on how water quality risks are increasing with climate change

Priority adaptation actions

Support government to develop a new policy framework for England’s water system. We will use our evidence and operational experience to ensure that it fully considers the significant water risks from climate change and the need to take urgent action to address the causes of climate change.

Support government-led work to develop a long-term water strategy for England (Water 2100) and, by working collaboratively with others, help to identify the transformative actions needed for a sustainable and regenerative system that provides essential services required for society. These services are fundamental to the economic growth of our nation and will not be available unless we fully consider and address climate change.

Nature

The Environment Agency plays a vital role in nature recovery through our advisory, regulatory, and operational functions. We seek to safeguard via regulation, and restore and enhance biodiversity, improve air and water quality, manage water resources, reduce flood risk, and improve climate adaptation and resilience:

• we increasingly look towards nature and nature-based solutions to reduce hazards and risks and create more resilient, naturally functioning places, catchments and landscapes. We play a key role in securing nature’s recovery through our operations, regulation, advising government and providing expert advice
• we undertake legal nature conservation duties in relation to our functions to protect and enhance nature
• we play a significant role in delivering the Environment Act targets and the Environmental Improvement Plan (EIP 2023). This includes our corporate ambition to create or restore 20,000 hectares of wildlife rich habitat by the end of 2030 and restore at least 15% of priority estuarine and coastal habitats by 2042
• we have national and international expertise in fresh, estuarine and coastal water species and habitats and help shape government policies and programmes for nature. Our delivery, advice, and communication to others will be underpinned by a sound understanding of the science around the biodiversity and climate crises
• we are the lead authority for River Basin Management Plans with the goal of improving English waters so that they are clean, resilient and plentiful
• we work in partnership with a wide variety of stakeholders to fund and deliver actions on the ground that will protect and enhance our biodiversity, taking a source-to-sea approach to ensure a resilient future where natural physical processes shape healthy, thriving land and seascapes, delivering lasting ecosystem benefits in a changing climate

Our role in planning, regulating, delivering, advising, and evidencing our impact on nature recovery will become more challenging in a changing climate:

• restoring, protecting, and enhancing habitats from source-to-sea – including peatlands, wetlands, chalk streams, and saltmarshes – will become increasingly challenging due to climate impacts such as; changing rainfall patterns, species loss, saline intrusion, sea level rise, increased temperatures, and groundwater recharge issues. Hotter, drier summers, wetter winters, and extreme storms will alter geomorphological processes, affecting erosion, sedimentation, soil health, landslide risk, and coastal squeeze
• climate impacts will exacerbate the existing pressures on the marine environment, including; sea level rise and extreme weather events, warming waters and thermal stratification, acidification, and salinity, hindering efforts to restore, protect and enhance saltmarsh and mudflats
• hotter, drier summers will negatively impact temperature-sensitive species, such as migratory salmonids, eel, lamprey, native white-clawed crayfish, and rare insects like mayflies, caddis flies, and stoneflies. Increased temperatures and changing flow regimes will threaten chalk stream species, with salmonid egg survival likely to be compromised at over 85% of sites by 2080
• climate impacts, including warmer water temperatures, extreme heat, decreased water quality, increased flooding, low flows, and invasive species, will make it harder to maintain, develop, and improve fisheries, affecting fish populations and angling patterns
• climate impacts, such as temperature increases, altered rainfall patterns, wetter winters, extreme rainfall events, and the loss of lowland agricultural peat, will hinder efforts to protect the environment from diffuse agricultural pollution by promoting inappropriate crop growth, reduction in suitable days for slurry spreading, increasing soil erosion, and hindering sustainable practices

We will ensure nature recovery in a changing climate by creating and improving natural habitats and protecting and restoring species through our regulatory roles and duties:

• creating the right conditions for nature recovery, helping to ensure that England’s rivers, lakes and estuaries become cleaner and healthier, and the gap between supply and demand for water is closing. We will do this through strong regulation and effective planning, laying the foundation for thriving and resilient ecosystems
• stronger environmental protection and compliance, contributing to halting the decline in species and habitats, with nature safeguarded through effective regulation and enforcement. Businesses and stakeholders will be more accountable, improving overall environmental compliance. We will do this by upholding the highest standards of environmental compliance, demonstrating leadership in nature protection. Our nature functions will provide clear, valued, actionable support to the wider business and economic growth. We will enhance our credibility, strengthen our regulatory role, and improve external compliance with penalties for those who breach environmental regulation
• optimised nature delivery, building on current efforts to accelerate habitat creation, address degraded ecosystems and species recovery by optimising our delivery. We will do this by integrating nature into strategy, processes, and decision-making from the outset. By putting nature in the centre of what we do allows a place-based, systems-wide approach, we will identify opportunities for nature-based solutions or multiple benefits and, ultimately drive sustainable growth
• greater impact through others, leveraging a greater contribution to nature recovery. Maximising impact will require prioritisation towards major current and future delivery programmes and policy where evidence indicates high impact to species and habitats, enabling recovery that is bigger, better and more joined up, for example, Agri-Environment Schemes. By leveraging our data and expertise, we will guide and influence major landowners, partners and volunteer networks to drive meaningful action. We will also address external delivery challenges to unlock greater restoration opportunities.
• recognition of nature’s value, leading to a stronger collective commitment to protecting nature. We will do this by improving our data collection and reporting to fully capture our contribution to nature. By strengthening our narrative around nature’s importance, we will enhance public and stakeholder engagement. Using a natural capital approach, we will quantify the value of ecosystem services – such as clean water, air purification, and flood mitigation – linking them to economic benefits and future green markets

Priority adaptation action

We will use nature-based solutions to achieve flood, water and nature outcomes across our catchments and coasts. We will mainstream the use of nature-based solutions across the organisation to reduce hazards and risks and create more resilient, adaptable and naturally functioning catchments and landscapes.

Environmental regulation

The Environment Agency regulatory remit spans more than 40 regimes. From flooding to water quality, from fisheries to nuclear power, from carbon to nature – our regulation covers so much of what is important to our country. What we do, how we do it, and the resulting outcomes are critical to the environment and us all – now and for future generations.

Much of our regulatory framework dates from the last century, and so pre-dates recognition of climate change. This poses challenges for regulating in a rapidly changing environment:

• some environmental regulation law, policy frameworks and standards do not support adaptation. For example, permits issued in the past may not have anticipated the lower river flows that we now expect in parts of the country
• we need to continue to work with government on how to regulate risks that are very uncertain because of climate change. A conventional, precautionary approach might imply very strict controls for operators that could be either impractical or unachievable
• the Environment Agency needs to invest in the evidence, skills, tools and guidance to regulate effectively in a changing climate

Our response to these challenges is underway. Adaptation is embedded in many of our regulatory frameworks and we are investing in innovative technology such as ‘digital twins’ to model environmental risks (see case study below). We also continue to build the evidence on current and projected future climate impacts so that we can advise government and make evidence-based regulatory decisions. 

Long-term, we need to work with government to transform our regulation to ensure we are effective and resilient through the decades ahead, as we discuss in our recent Chief Regulator’s Report. The Environment Agency alone cannot meet these challenges. We can only regulate where we have power to do so, mainly to ensure safety and environmental protection. Changes to legislation are also needed to make the regulatory framework simpler, more coherent, flexible and agile.

In some cases, leadership from all those responsible for delivering and regulating across environmental systems is needed to change regulatory regimes. For example, we are working with Defra on the Reservoir Safety Reform Programme, which will be delivered in a phased programme over the coming years. We are also working with Defra to ensure necessary management approaches are adopted by the water industry to achieve climate resilience.  

Priority adaptation action

We will enable climate resilience through regulatory approaches by working with government to shape future regulation and supporting operators to manage climate risks.

Case study: digital twin of an industrial cluster

In 2024, we produced a proof of concept digital twin model of an industrial cluster on the Humber Estuary. The digital twin is a virtual replica of the industrial cluster. It uses environmental and industrial data to assess the cumulative impacts of low carbon technologies, focussing on water availability and temperature. Crucially, the digital twin includes climate change projection data. This means that the digital twin can be utilised to understand the cumulative environmental impacts of both industrial changes and changes to the climate. Simulations from the proof of concept model indicate that unless action is taken to adapt to climate impacts, operational activity will have to cease during low flows expected by the end of the century. Such information is vital for facilitating and making the case for adaptation action in the cluster.

Incident management

The Environment Agency plays an important role in creating a climate resilient nation, but we know that we can’t prevent all incidents from happening. Our incident management service aims to minimise the impacts of incidents that do happen to keep people safe and protect the environment from serious and lasting damage.

We are a Category 1 Responder under Civil Contingencies Act 2004, with a duty to mitigate emergencies under legislation such as The Hazardous Water (E&W) Regulations 2005 alongside other functions exercised during incidents.

We manage environmental incidents by:

• understanding risks
• developing contingency plans for incidents
• ensuring we are prepared and supporting others to be prepared
• detecting and forecasting real time threats
• warning and informing others
• supporting remediation and longer-term recovery

All of these tasks become much more difficult with climate change:

• the frequency, complexity, and severity of incidents will increase
• demand on our incident management service will vary significantly between and within years, making it difficult to plan resources and creating demand surges that risk overwhelming our incident management service
• forecasting and warning networks may become overwhelmed due to the severity of incidents and extreme weather
• we may be unable to recover effectively due to the increasing frequency and severity of incidents, where access is prevented by ongoing impacts and shorter recovery times
• the increasing workforce demand of incidents diverts our staff from non-emergency (but important) work. Environmental incidents can require our staff to work around the clock for days, weeks, or months

Priority adaptation action

We will transform our Incident Management service, such as by improving our national forecasting and warning services in partnership with the Met Office, and developing a digitally enabled, resilient and reliable incident management service.

Operational risks

Managing our assets

We build, operate and maintain infrastructure and natural assets to manage flood and coastal risks, water, land and biodiversity, navigation and environmental monitoring. Our asset portfolio is large: 65,813 assets. It includes large pumping stations and tidal barriers, locks and boat moorings, and monitoring stations for air and water. It also includes blue and green infrastructure which may be natural or man-made features such as drainage systems and reed beds. In total, our asset portfolio is worth £9.8 billion and would cost £24.5 billion to build from scratch. 

Our assets help to protect people, property and the environment from flood, drought and pollution. They transfer water to where it is needed. They provide a valuable recreational resource and help our watercourses thrive for nature. 

We need to be confident our assets will work reliably when needed, but this is made more difficult by climate change: 

• there is a greater risk that strategically important assets such as flood defences and water transfer schemes may fail to operate at desired service levels. This could happen because their design specification is insufficient for the changing environment
• asset construction and maintenance costs will increase due to higher performance requirements and greater wear and tear. It will become increasingly difficult to keep all our assets in their desired condition unless our budgets increase too

Budgets for the maintenance and repair of Environment Agency assets may need to increase, to address the greater potential for deterioration and to address climate threats. That’s why the government provided £2.65 billion between 2024/25 and 2025/26 to better protect 52,000 properties from flooding and coastal erosion.

Following the 2025 spending review, the government has committed to a further £4.2 billion to be spent over three years from April 2026 to protect communities across England from the dangers of flooding and enable sustainable growth. This will enable risk management authorities, including the Environment Agency, to build, repair and maintain defences as well as invest in flood resilience and adaptation projects. Additional funding has also been announced for navigation and water transfer infrastructure.

A longer-term investment programme was announced as part of the launch of the government’s UK Infrastructure: A 10 Year Strategy (April 2026 to March 2036). The strategy commits to a new flood defence pipeline: a £7.9 billion 10-year pipeline of capital investment to maintain existing and invest in new flood defences, nature-based solutions and property level resilience measures. This investment will benefit 840,000 properties by 2035-36. The strategy acknowledges the importance of nature-based solutions and green infrastructure being a key part of the new 10-year capital investment programme.

This longer-term view will enable both the Environment Agency and the supply chain to better plan and invest in their workforce and equipment, improving delivery capacity and investor confidence. It will also ensure better alignment between public and private sector infrastructure providers for climate resilience.

Priority adaptation actions

We will prioritise asset maintenance on reliability to achieve better value for money, increasingly using AI and better data to target and prioritise maintenance in areas of highest risk.

We will invest in other resilience measures, such as natural flood management and property flood resilience.

We will provide asset status evaluations to local communities and government, enabling better planning.

Environmental monitoring

The Environment Agency’s monitoring services cover air quality, water quality, water quantity (including for flood risk management and forecasting), geomatics (remote sensing) and the inspection of regulated activities to check their compliance with environmental permits.

The data we gather from our monitoring and models underpins:

• the management of flood risk including flood warnings and designing of flood protection schemes
• our fisheries, biodiversity and navigation functions
• our regulation of many types of business, including sewerage treatment works discharges and their associated storm overflows
• our regulation of 20,000 abstractions, with total annual licensed abstraction volume of approximately 20 billion cubic metres (10-12 billion for public water supply)

Our monitoring station data are used by climate change models, which give vital projections for all other sectors of the UK to adapt to climate change.

Water monitoring is a significant logistical exercise – England has over 50,000km length of rivers and streams, and our hydrometric network consists of over 12,000 monitoring stations.

Climate change and more extreme weather present a challenge to how we collect and interpret monitoring data:

• extreme weather damages our fixed monitoring infrastructure, which increases maintenance costs and can mean that data is not recorded properly
• extreme weather will also make it harder for us to manually collect data without compromising staff safety, meaning we may need to adopt alternative remote monitoring technologies (which may also provide better data)
• climate change will also result in more extremely low and high water-levels and flows, which will exceed the measurement ranges of some of our monitoring stations, meaning these will need to be upgraded to ensure continuity of service
• interpreting monitoring data often requires us to consider what we find against what we would expect to find in near-normal undisturbed conditions, especially when it is about understanding the impact of human activities. A changing climate changes what we might fairly expect ‘undisturbed’ to look like and changes our notion of the baseline
• it is harder for us to interpret the data we collect because the environment is changing rapidly and the past may not be a reliable guide to the future

Priority action

We will continue to review our monitoring approaches to ensure they are resilient to a changing climate.

Our business continuity

Climate change and more extreme weather presents business continuity risks to many organisations, including the Environment Agency:

• some of our estate and operational buildings may not be resilient to future climate and extreme weather. For example, offices and depots may be inaccessible or damaged during extreme weather resulting in disruption and increased costs
• staff may not be able to carry out some field work activities safely during heatwaves or floods, disrupting or delaying routine tasks
• our business-critical supply chains may be disrupted due to severe weather (especially where manufacturers or suppliers are overseas), and procurement costs may rise if climate increases manufacturing costs or consumer demand

We are already working to manage increasing risks to our estate, which covers 17,000 hectares of land across England, by planning for up to a +4°C warming world. We will build on this work to make our own operations sustainable, including ensuring our estate, assets, and supply chains are resilient to the changing climate.

Priority adaptation action

We will ensure our estates and supply chains become climate resilient.

Case study: Assessing the climate vulnerability of our estates

The Environment Agency’s estate consists of over 350 properties. Each of these faces risks from climate impacts. To help us understand the challenge, and focus our efforts where action is needed most, we conducted a climate change vulnerability and impact assessment for our estate.

We developed a site-based climate change vulnerability and impact assessment tool. We gathered site specific information using a survey and available records relating to the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of the site. This data was then combined with current and future hazard information, mostly using the Climate Risk Indicator Explorer to produce an overall red, amber or green (RAG) score for each site.

In 2024 we completed assessments for all our buildings. We will now use this data to inform strategic investment decisions. We are planning to carry out similar assessments for our land.

Financial investments (pensions)

The global impacts of climate change present a financial risk to investment portfolios. The Environment Agency Pension Fund has a fiduciary duty to manage these risks by considering both climate-related mitigation and adaptation to develop climate resilience in its portfolios.

Among other work to measure climate risk, the Pension Fund uses climate scenarios to help inform its Investment Strategy. The Fund will continue to monitor risks to make its investments as climate resilient as possible. It is also involved in finance initiatives to encourage financial asset owners and asset managers to disclose physical risks from climate change.

Reservoirs and navigation

Reservoirs

We regulate reservoir safety under the Reservoirs Act 1975 by maintaining a register of large, raised reservoirs and ensuring that high risk reservoirs are inspected, maintained and repaired regularly in line with the regulatory requirements.

We also operate approximately 200 reservoirs, principally to manage flood risk by temporarily storing flood water. These are subject to the same safety requirements.

Climate change presents significant risks to reservoir safety:

• more extreme weather events could affect reservoir safety by increasing the risk of overtopping, causing greater peak flows, and affecting stability of slopes, embankments and structures
• maintenance costs will increase due to more regular operation, especially when it is closer to the design limits of the reservoir
• construction costs will increase as structures will need to perform to higher design standards

Currently reservoir design standards are published by the Institution of Civil Engineers and do not address future climate risks. The design standards provide the flood magnitude a dam should safely withstand and they are based on downstream risk. Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and probable maximum flood (PMF) are the theoretical maximum rainfall and flood flow values that a catchment can experience. PMP and PMF are used to design spillways for higher risk. Methods and data to calculate PMP and PMF have not been updated since 1975 and there is no allowance for climate change. There is a risk that current PMP and PMF values are being under calculated. Commissioning of the research to update the methodology and guidance by the Environment Agency is a recommendation in the Independent Reservoir Safety Review.

Our adaptation approach to our own reservoirs falls under the asset management transformation strategy set out above.

Navigation

The Environment Agency is the navigation authority for 1,010 kilometres of inland waterways, including the Thames, Medway, Wye, multiple waterways in East Anglia, and two harbours. As a navigation authority, we are responsible for keeping the Waterways safe and open for navigation. This includes duties to ensure vessels are appropriately registered, that customers utilise the waterways and facilities lawfully and that Environment Agency Navigation assets can be safely operated for navigation, flood risk, water resource and wider beneficiaries.

We expect that climate change will have some consequences for our navigation authority work, which may be locally significant at times:

• wetter winters are likely to increase high flows on our Waterways, reducing the times of year during which it is safe to move. Many of our locks and weirs manage water levels and can contribute to managing flood risk. With wetter winters predicted due to climate change, this use may increase in frequency or criticality (or both)
• very low river flows during the predicted drier summers and increase in periods of prolonged dry weather (PDW) could make some waterway stretches temporarily un-navigable or dangerous for members of the public, as boats tip whilst moored to fixed banks, or ‘bottom out’ on usually submerged hazards while moving. Our Waterways and Navigations contribute to water level management and protect water abstraction. This could become increasingly important if episodes of PDW or drought increase
• low flows and dry reaches would impact biodiversity as flows are limited and oxygen levels drop in the water
• increased stormy conditions could increase the damage to our harbours and our inland assets, requiring higher levels of investment to keep them operational
• the accessibility and usability of harbours and public rights of way could also be impacted by increased high energy storms

We will continue to review the impact of future river flows and sea level rise on navigation and engage waterway users on these risks.

We can expect climate change to increase the construction and maintenance costs of our waterway assets, by weather conditions shortening construction and maintenance windows, and assets operating in conditions more extreme than their design parameters. We will manage this risk through our asset management transformation strategy set out above.

Interdependent and cascading risks

Our ability to manage climate risks sometimes depends on external factors, such as wider climate resilience at a local or sector level (see below).

External dependencies

Local resilience

• The resilience of well-functioning natural systems.
• The preparedness of local communities and other incident responders.
• Landowners and managers carrying out appropriate land management practices or sustainable land-use change.
• Local land-use planning decisions and plans that account for future flood risk and water availability.

Sector resilience

• The actions and capacity of industries we regulate to manage their risks.
• The actions and capacity of our suppliers and infrastructure service providers to take account of climate change and plan for weather related disruption.
• Pension asset owners disclosing and managing climate risks so that we can take informed investment decisions.

As a delivery body, we are also dependent on government to ensure that legislation, policy and funding enables our adaptation (especially to build and maintain climate resilient infrastructure such as flood defences). We are also dependent on other regulators where they have legal responsibility (for example, we are the joint-competent authority with the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) for Control of Major Accident Hazards Regulations (COMAH) high-risk industrial sites) or on bodies that set environmental standards (such as the UK Technical Advisory Group (UKTAG)).

We work closely with government to advise on adaptation needs for environmental policy, legislation and national resilience needs. For example, under the National Resilience Framework and National Risk Register.

We will also expand our reach and explore different approaches with regards to regulation for adaptation. Improvements to data collection and analysis will support our ability to provide technical advice and evidence to underpin effective adaptation policy and action.

We can also identify internal dependencies and cascading effects between our risks (see below).

Internal dependencies

Assets

• Many of our environmental duties depend on having a reliable and climate-resilient monitoring network.

Resources

• We need enough capacity to cope with the increasing demands of reactive incident response, whilst also delivering planned work and managing staff well-being.
• We need enough specialist adaptation capacity to plan local projects, develop climate-resilient regulation and ensure legal compliance.

Skills

• We need to develop and disseminate data, evidence and training to support adaptation.
• We need to develop, recruit and retain staff with adaptation expertise.

The priority adaptation actions set out in other sections of this report will address these dependencies, especially initiatives to transform our approaches to incident management, environmental regulation, monitoring and asset management.

Building adaptation capacity

Adaptation means changing the way that we work. We will need to give our staff the skills, tools and evidence to do so.

Developing the skills and tools

Adaptation is integral to the Environment Agency’s goals, and so we need our staff to understand how to apply it in their own work. Our online internal training course explains how climate change alters the environment, introduces fundamental adaptation concepts, and explains how these relate to staff roles. We have encouraged all our staff to complete the course.

We have also developed specialist adaptation training on topics such as its role in environmental regulation. So far 584 regulatory staff have taken this course as part of their professional development.

The Environment Agency invests in adaptation tools and data to aid decision making. For example: 

• we have updated our National Flood Risk Assessment and National Coastal Erosion Risk Mapping to take account of climate change (NaFRA2 and NCERM2 respectively)
• we worked with the Climate Services for a Net Zero Resilient World (CS-N0W) programme funded by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, to support the production of the future water resources dataset explorer tool
• we work with national and international standards bodies to support the development of adaptation considerations within standards that can be applied within Environment Agency roles
• we are developing a tool for analysing shore and coastal erosion sensitivity to accelerating sea level rise
• we are developing a Land Use Choices Tool to help regional and local planners identify where land use change can give the greatest benefits to address rising pressure in, for example, water resources and flood risk

Developing the evidence

The Environment Agency is a highly science-based organisation, and as a Public Sector Research Establishment (PSRE), we have a legal duty to carry out research. We employ scientists across a wide range of disciplines to understand our environment and support our activities within it. We also buy science from outside the organisation and grow ever more links with other parts of government and the academic and industrial science base to make sure we’re accessing the very best evidence for our work.

But our real strength is in ensuring that science makes a real difference, and so informing adaptation is a key pillar of our Science Strategy. Under this, we:

• have completed a review of the current scientific knowledge about droughts in the UK, including how it may alter due to climate change, and what the implications are for both the catchment environment and the way we manage water resources – now and in the future.
• have produced the first projections of future river water temperature which will help us take adaptive action in vulnerable locations.
• have set out a new synthesis of the effectiveness of nature-based solutions for a range of resilience outcomes to inform adaption in rural catchments.
• will generate new insights about how the water quality of all 80 English estuaries will be affected by climate change.
• are modelling nutrient futures in lakes, to understand how regulatory pathways and management options interact with climate change, to meet water quality and biodiversity targets.

Priority adaptation action

Through our Science Strategy, we support the use of science and evidence across our remit and generate knowledge to underpin decisions through our research on climate impacts and adaptation.

Delivering adaptation action

Key messages:

• climate impacts are affecting all aspects of our work, making it more difficult to protect and enhance the environment. This trend will intensify in the future
• we are taking transformative action to prepare for climate impacts and these account for uncertainty in the timing and severity of climate change impacts
• we can successfully adapt to climate change if we do the right things and act early
• building environmental resilience, and creating a nation resilient to climate change, protects lives and livelihoods, by supporting sustainable growth, nature recovery and public health
• our staff play a critical role on the front line of climate change but we cannot do this alone: we work with partners, including government, communities, businesses, local authorities and industry
• we are supporting operators to adapt

Our priority adaptation actions

By 2030 we will:

Flood and coastal management

• Undertake a review of the national Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Strategy in 2026.
• Develop and deliver a new 10 year flood and coastal investment programme that reflects where current and future flood risk impacts are greatest and represents the best value for money.

Water

• Implement a revised National Framework for Water Resources.
• Support government to develop a new policy framework for England’s water system.
• Work collaboratively to support the development of a government-led water strategy (Water 2100).

Nature

• Use nature-based solutions to achieve flood, water and nature outcomes across our catchments and coasts.

Regulation

• Enable climate resilience through regulatory approaches by working with government to shape future regulation and supporting operators to manage climate risks.

Incident management

• Transform our Incident Management service to be digitally enabled, resilient and reliable.

Asset maintenance

• Prioritise asset maintenance on reliability to achieve better value for money, increasingly using artificial intelligence (AI) and better data to target and prioritise maintenance in areas of highest risk.
• Invest in other resilience measures, such as natural flood management and property flood resilience.
• Provide asset status evaluations to local communities and government, enabling better planning.

Monitoring

• Continue to review our monitoring approaches to ensure they are resilient to a changing climate.

Business continuity

• Ensure our estates and supply chains become climate resilient.

Governance, management and monitoring

Governance

The Environment Agency Board is directly accountable to ministers for all aspects of the organisation and its performance. This includes consideration and approval of short and long-term strategy, and the key strategies mentioned throughout this report.

The Board delegates responsibilities for risk and control to the Audit and Risk Assurance Committee (ARAC) which is responsible for considering and advising the Board and Accounting Officer on matters relating to corporate risk. Climate change is considered a key material issue and was a prominent theme of the latest Audit and Risk Assurance Committee annual material issues review. Of the 11 highest scoring material issues climate change (adaptation and mitigation) remains in the top three. The Committee used the material issues to inform their oversight of the organisation’s corporate risks as part of a programme of deep-dive sessions in 2023. Material issues are reviewed and tracked on an annual basis.

Management

The Environment Agency incorporates climate risk management into its governance arrangements, so that Directors are accountable for managing their own adaptation risks (in accordance with their individual remits), and integration with strategy and performance.

The Environment Agency has recently adopted a new risk management framework to ensure we manage and escalate risk effectively at all levels of the organisation – safeguarding from threats and hazards, as well as identifying opportunities to pursue. The adaptation risks set out in Annex A will be embedded through this framework, ensuring clear accountability, reporting, assurance and escalation. This will ensure climate adaptation risk management is central to the delivery of our organisational outcomes and an integral part of strategy, planning, governance, decision making and operational practice.

Where our statutory duties require us to assess and manage physical climate risks (for example, in delivering our flood and coastal risk management duties), then management responsibilities are discharged in accordance with the Environment Agency’s financial and non-financial Schemes of Delegation.  

Monitoring

The adaptation risks set out in Annex A will be embedded through the Environment Agency’s risk management framework to ensure clear accountability, reporting, assurance and escalation.

Management systems

The Environment Agency is certified to three management systems standards: ISO9001 for quality, ISO14001 for environmental, and ISO55001 for assets. These international standards act as a foundation for sound management, performance improvement, continual improvement, and assurance. Following ISO’s London Declaration, these standards are being amended to require that climate change is considered as a relevant issue.

It is not currently possible to be accredited to adaptation standards (for example, ISO 14090/91 and BS8631) but we aim to follow their general principles within the constraints of our statutory duties.

Enabling local resilience and sustainable growth

The Environment Agency has a dual mission to protect the environment whilst supporting sustainable development. We are committed to supporting the government’s Economic Growth Mission and have a critical role in facilitating the delivery of growth ambitions by ensuring that infrastructure and environmental capacity is in place for the protection and enhancement of the environment. Our expertise and evidence is invaluable in finding opportunities to achieve sustainable growth while minimising the impact on the environment and maximising opportunities for nature recovery and climate resilience.  

Well planned and designed development and infrastructure, that considers environmental risk and opportunities strategically, and from the outset, can deliver new development in ways that attracts investment and reduces costs and delays for developers and decision makers.

We want to ensure that resilience to climate change is embedded in all new development, so that today’s places and infrastructure are resilient to tomorrow’s climate. Investing in nature and the environment increases environmental capacity to unlock housing and infrastructure and it strengthens places resilience to climate shocks.

Housing and major infrastructure proposals present an exciting opportunity to create more resilient communities, such as through: adequate flood risk protection; supply of drinking water and sewerage services; remediating and bringing back into use previously developed land and integrating nature-based solutions (such as green and blue infrastructure), recognising their multi-functional benefits in managing climate impacts.

Alongside our national work to support the government’s growth mission, devolution ambitions and planning reform, we are an important local delivery body. Through our planning and place-making advice, we are an enabler to growth: identifying optimum sites for development and giving investors and decision-makers confidence and certainty. This includes helping place-makers better plan and adapt to the impacts of our changing climate, showcasing innovation and good design.

Through our role as a statutory consultee in the planning system, we inform local authority Development Plans and planning applications. Through our strategic advice and technical expertise, we can advise on addressing challenges associated with current and future flood risk, coastal erosion and water availability issues. We encourage local authorities to consider and prepare for climate impacts – notably in relation to flood and water risks and opportunities to support nature recovery.

Case study: Mayfield Park in Manchester

The Environment Agency’s input to the Mayfield redevelopment in Manchester will help deliver 13,000 new jobs, circa 1.6 million square feet of offices, 1,500 new homes, along with shops and leisure spaces. This regeneration project has already delivered Manchester’s first new city park for 100 years – a ‘green anchor’ for new investment.

At its heart has been the restoration of the River Medlock which has created the setting for a resilient, sustainable and successful place, bringing health and economic benefits to the wider community. 

By coordinating our engagement with the development consortium through early planning advice, we provided timely and joined up input from our technical teams. This included sharing our technical expertise on flood risk, watercourse design, biodiversity improvements and contaminated land remediation.

Outcomes from this project included: 

• remediation of over 6.5 acres of heavily contaminated former industrial land
• 370 meters of improved river and better access to the watercourse for the local community.
• greater resilience to local flood risk

Supporting industry adaptation through regulation

Industry resilience to climate change

Our surveys of industry adaptation practice show in the higher-risk Environmental Permitting Regulations (EPR) and COMAH sectors show that:  

• two-thirds of operators have committed to embed adaptation into their management systems, with top management oversight 
• operators recognise that a wide range of climate impacts can threaten safety and environmental performance 
• only a quarter of operators had benchmarked and were improving in line with adaptation standards and guidance 
• while many operators manage present day impacts, not all are prepared for extremes, and only a few assess risks that will increase in the future 
• there is a lack of adaptive capacity amongst the sectors we regulate and a lack of implementation of adaption action, some of which can be relatively low cost 

We will continue our informing and enabling approach to adaptation aspects of our regulatory activities, carrying out adaptation-focused inspections and audits.  

Supporting industry to adapt

We have published supporting guidance to help industry sectors adapt to climate change.

Climate impacts such as heatwaves, storms, droughts, floods, wildfires and rising sea levels are becoming more frequent and more severe. We continue to see increasing threats to those we regulate, making it more difficult for them to prevent and mitigate accidents and comply with the environmental and safety legislation we regulate. Environmental permit holders must consider the risks of a changing climate to and from their business through their management systems. 

We have continued to improve our guidance and regulatory approaches to support climate adaptation and resilience. This has included strengthening our collaborative work with Defra and Treasury to ensure our regulatory guidance is aligned with government adaptation policy. In 2023, we: 

• published guidance for industries regulated under EPR that summarises current good and best practice for embedding climate adaptation into environmental management systems
• published guidance on screening for climate impacts and revised our risk assessment examples for industry sectors
• worked with the Regulatory Business Forum to publish a template guideline for sector trade associations to use when providing guidance for their members
• completed a 4-year programme of work to provide guidance on climate change adaptation to the high hazards industries: CDOIF Guideline: Adapting to Climate Change and CDOIF Climate Change adaptation supporting slide pack

We continue to collaborate through forums such as the COMAH Strategic Forum and the Infrastructure Operators Adaptation Forum to share best adaptation practices with others and learn from other adaptation experts and leaders. In addition, we are working closely with the Office for Nuclear Regulation as they carry out their work on climate change.

See the annex document for:

• Annex A: Risk assessment and action plan
• Annex B: Actions in third round report