Research and analysis

Flood and coastal risk management: long-term investment scenarios

An assessment of how different investment scenarios could affect future flood and coastal erosion risks in England over a 50 year period.


Long-term investment scenarios (LTIS) 2014

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The findings in the report cover the whole of England for the next 50 years.

This study builds on the 2009 long-term investment strategy. It includes improvements and updates in the analysis of risk and the value of future investment. The scenarios show how future risks from flooding and coastal erosion could change due to different investment scenarios and estimate the level of investment that would maximise benefits under different circumstances.

The study takes into account:

  • climate change
  • how development in flood plains is managed
  • changes in future costs to manage flooding and coastal erosion

The Environment Agency now has a more complete analysis than ever before, which:

  • presents findings on the investment choices over the next 50 years
  • shows the link between long-term investment and existing plans
  • sets out that current spending plans (about £750 million, including all public and third party sources) are broadly in line with optimum levels of investment over the next 10 years
  • makes an assessment of the risk of flooding from surface water alongside the risk of flooding from rivers and the sea
  • assesses the benefits of a range of flood defences and flood management measures, including structures and individual property protection
  • explores the potential to reduce the consequences of flooding through flood forecasting and warning
  • determines whether the total level of flood risk and coastal erosion can be reduced in England in the coming years
  • takes account of the programme of flood and coastal erosion risk management schemes
Published 1 June 2009
Last updated 2 December 2014 + show all updates
  1. Long-term investment strategy published in 2009 has been updated with the Long-term investment scenarios 2014.
  2. First published.