GAD: using models in decision making

A Government Actuary's Department report about how modelling can help government to make decisions, reduce risk and maximise value.


Using models In decision making

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In March 2013 Sir Nicholas Macpherson published a report on analytical modelling in government that made recommendations on best practice in quality assurance.

This guide from the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) builds on the recommendations of the Macpherson report. It is not a step-by-step guide but is designed to stimulate discussion, raise awareness of the issues and risks involved, and provide some thoughts about what to consider as part of quality assurance process for modelling.

The guidance contains a brief introduction to modelling and discusses:

  • the risks in modelling
  • the different parties involved in a modelling exercise
  • what to consider in long term financial modelling
  • useful information for modelling exercises

The document is informed by GAD’s experience of modelling and providing assurance on models. The guidance is of interest to anyone in a department or agency who is involved with this process, whether they are developing models, using a model’s output or providing model assurance.