This document provides an update to the ‘Economic case for HS2: The Y network and London-West Midlands’, published in February 2011 (the “February 2011 economic case”). It forms part of HS2 Ltd’s advice to government, and presents changes to forecasts of demand and the updated economic appraisal of HS2.
The purpose of this document is to revise the February 2011 economic case modelling and appraisal to reflect changes to:
- economic forecasts - we have updated our demand forecasts in light of revised economic forecasts
- patterns of demand - we have updated our modelling to incorporate recent changes in the demand for long distance travel
- Y network development - we have reviewed costs for the Y network, and separately costs for London to West Midlands, on the basis of further development of Y network station and route options
- forecast rail services without HS2 - we have updated assumptions on the rail services expected in the absence of HS2, as a result of increased information and the commitment by government to additional rail enhancement schemes
This update details the resulting implications for the appraisal of the costs and benefits of HS2. It follows the structure of the February 2011 report in presenting the overall economic case for HS2. As with the February 2011 report, we continue to assume that all costs are borne by the public sector and that there are no premium fares or sophisticated yield management on high speed rail.