Independent report

JCVI statement on COVID-19 vaccination in autumn 2027

Published 16 July 2026

Introduction

The aim of the COVID-19 vaccination programme is to prevent serious disease (hospitalisation and/or mortality) arising from COVID-19.

In formulating their advice for COVID-19 vaccination in autumn 2027, the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) considered the latest data on COVID-19 epidemiology, viral evolution, vaccine effectiveness and uptake, and cost-effectiveness.

Advice on COVID-19 vaccination in autumn 2027

JCVI advises that in autumn 2027 vaccination should be offered to:

• adults aged 80 years and over
• residents in a care home for older adults
• individuals aged 6 months and over who are immunosuppressed (as defined in the ‘immunosuppression definition’ box of the COVID-19 chapter of the green book)

Considerations

Epidemiology

SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) has continued to circulate among the population. However, COVID-19 incidence is declining and the epidemiological pattern continues to shift.

This is most obvious in the number of waves that occur each year. In 2024, there were only 2 COVID-19 waves, in July and October. This was a change from the previous years when COVID-19 waves were seen every 3 to 4 months throughout the year. In 2025, this further reduced to one wave, which occurred in October at a lower level than any previous wave.

Following the October 2025 peak, cases rapidly declined to the lowest baseline point yet recorded, and to a much lower level than influenza rates over the same period. COVID-19 baseline positivity has remained stable up to June 2026.

More information on these trends can be found in Epidemiology of COVID-19 in England, July to December 2025 by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and in the national flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports.

Viral evolution

Viral evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has continued to slow over the past year. The majority of circulating sub-variants have been within the JN.1 variant family, with XFG largely responsible for the peak in 2025. This remains the dominant variant in spring 2026.

BA.3.2 was first detected in 2024 and re-emerged in the UK in January 2026. This variant, although distinct from the JN.1 family, did not result in an increase in hospitalisations or mortality.

Eligible cohorts

The highest hospitalisation rates and mortality continue to be seen in the elderly, particularly in those over 85 years of age. Notably, since the change in autumn 2025 to only offer COVID-19 vaccination to adults aged 75 years and over, residents in a care home for older adults, and individuals aged 6 months and over who are immunosuppressed, COVID-19 hospitalisations have not increased in individuals that were previously vaccinated according to clinical risk group status.

In the autumn 2026 advice, it was highlighted that more recent data was needed to assess whether any other population groups under the age of 75 years with specific clinical comorbidities are at similar risk of serious disease as those aged 75 years and over.

An OpenSAFELY analysis (unpublished) has provided some updated data on the clinical risk groups at higher risk of severe outcomes from COVID-19. Similar to previous analyses, individuals with certain underlying health conditions were noted to be at higher relative risk of severe COVID-19 compared with individuals without those health conditions. For all individuals (with or without underlying health conditions), the absolute risk of severe COVID-19 continues to decline year-on-year. Further work is required to better understand the impact of multiple comorbid illnesses and to include data from more recent years given the changing epidemiology.

Cost-effectiveness

The cost-effectiveness assessment for COVID-19 vaccination that was first undertaken in October 2024 was updated for 2026. Important changes include:

• the shift in the epidemiology
• an updated (wider) definition of a ‘COVID-19 hospitalisation’
• a reduction in the costs for hospitalisation in accordance with updated costs from the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC)
• a longer vaccine effectiveness duration (likely related to a slower pace of virus evolution rather than an improvement in vaccine formulation)

As in 2024, the analysis used an example price of £25 for the combined cost of vaccine and delivery.

Increasing age remains the most important risk factor associated with COVID-19 hospitalisation and mortality. Accordingly, willingness to pay increased with age.

​Some age groups among those who are immunosuppressed did not reach the cost-effectiveness threshold, but this may reflect the small population sizes involved.

Future programmes

There remains significant uncertainty regarding the future epidemiology of COVID-19. The year-round baseline activity of COVID-19 has been decreasing over time and is currently at its lowest level. Further decreases may continue or there may be a stabilisation at the current low level. In addition, the single wave of COVID-19 in 2025 may indicate the start of a future pattern involving only a single peak across the year in autumn. If so, and together with a potential increase in the durability of vaccine protection, only one vaccine dose per year may be needed in future to protect individuals at higher risk of COVID-19.

More definite advice on COVID-19 vaccination in 2028 will be provided in due course. Eligibility for vaccination in 2028 is likely to be similar to autumn 2027.

Vaccine products 

Safety

The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) monitors vaccine safety and adverse events. No significant changes in the safety profile of currently available COVID-19 vaccines have been notified to JCVI. The safety profile of all COVID-19 vaccines currently licensed in the UK is acceptable.

Advice on vaccine products

JCVI’s advice on vaccine products for use in autumn 2027 remains the same.

JCVI does not have a preference for a specific COVID-19 vaccine product in the adult population. JCVI advises a preference for having vaccine products based on more than one vaccine platform in the programme, such as mRNA and protein-based vaccines.

It is expected that COVID-19 vaccines will continue to be updated to match more recent variants on a yearly basis. JCVI advises that, when possible, the latest updated vaccine should be used in a vaccination campaign, provided this does not delay the start of the campaign. As appropriate, the updated vaccine should preferably be different to the vaccine used in a previous campaign to reduce the impact from back-boosting.

For children and young people under the age of 18 years who are immunosuppressed, JCVI continues to advise the use of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 mRNA (Comirnaty) vaccine, with the vaccine dose appropriate to the child’s age.