Official Statistics

English Housing Survey: local authority housing stock condition modelling, 2020

Published 14 March 2024

Applies to England

1. In this release:

This Official Statistics in Development series provides sub-regional estimates of housing stock condition. Specifically, modelled estimates of:

• the number and proportion of occupied homes that are deemed non-decent according to the Decent Homes Standard in each local authority, by tenure and dwelling type (see Decent Homes Standard table)
• the number and proportion of occupied homes that are deemed unsafe due to having a Housing Health and Safety Rating System (HHSRS) Category 1 hazard in each local authority, by tenure and dwelling type see HHSRS Category 1 hazards table

Approximately 15% of occupied properties in England were non-decent in 2020-21, and 9% had a HHSRS Category 1 hazard ^{[footnote 1]}.

At the local authority level, the modelled data shows variation in housing conditions across England, with 86% of local authorities having less than 20% of occupied dwellings modelled as non-decent. Similarly, in the majority of local authorities (64%), less than 10% of occupied dwellings are estimated to have a HHSRS Category 1 hazard.

Table 1 – Number of local authorities with levels of non-decency and Category 1 Hazards

Thresholds	Non-Decent	HHSRS Category 1 Hazard
0-10%	61	188
10-20%	195	103
20-30%	38	4
30%+	2	1

The models used to produce these estimates were developed using the 2020-21 English Housing Survey (EHS) housing stock data. It uses its findings on local household and dwelling characteristics, known to be associated with housing quality at a national level, to predict housing quality for each local authority in England. More detail on the modelling methodology is provided later in this release.

Both modelled data in this publication and social sector landlord self-reported data in related publications are subject to uncertainty, often leading to differences between publications at the local authority level. The range of methodological approaches used across publications should be taken into account if making comparisons, e.g., the modelled data here only refers to occupied dwellings.

In May 2023, sub-regional estimates of housing stock condition were published using English Housing Survey data from 2019-20, and this release provides equivalent estimates for 2020-21.

We do not recommend that users directly compare estimates for individual local authorities from this release with last year’s published data due to data and methodological differences, which prevent the statistical testing of changes. For more detail, see How the Data should be Used and Modelling Methodology.

These statistics have been developed in response to a growing interest in housing quality and in conjunction with the levelling up missions of the department. We will continue to develop these metrics to support the needs of users and welcome any feedback on this release.

2. Decent Homes Standard

For a dwelling to be considered ‘decent’ under the Decent Homes Standard, it must:

• meet the statutory minimum standard for housing (the Housing Health and Safety Rating System, since April 2006), homes which contain a Category 1 hazard under the HHSRS are considered non-decent
• provide a reasonable degree of thermal comfort
• be in a reasonable state of repair
• have reasonably modern facilities and services

2.1 Proportion of Non-Decent Homes by Local Authority in England

Across all tenures, non-decent dwellings are spread across England, with a higher proportion of non-decent occupied dwellings found in local authorities in the North West and South West, as well as some areas in the West Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber. In London, non-decent dwellings are concentrated in central London, with outer London boroughs typically having lower rates of non-decency.

Figure 1

2.2 Proportion of Non-Decent Homes by Tenure in England

The proportion of non-decent homes varies by tenure. In 2020-21, 23% of private rented sector homes were non-decent. This is higher than in the owner-occupied sector (14%) and the social rented sector (11%).

The highest proportions of non-decent social and private rented accommodation are not necessarily found in the same local authority areas. Higher proportions of non-decent private rented homes can be found in many regions of England, with the lowest proportions in the West Midlands and the South East.

In the South West, there are higher proportions of non-decent dwellings in both rented sectors. There is also a high proportion of non-decent social rented homes in local authorities near the Welsh border compared to the rest of England.

Figure 2

For local authorities in most regions in England, a high level of non-decency in the social rented sector is matched by a high level of non-decency in the private rented sector.

However, in Yorkshire and the Humber, the North East, and the East of England, there is notably more variation in the levels of non-decency in the private rented sector (x-axis) than in the social rented sector (y-axis). This is particularly pronounced in the East of England, where there is a larger disparity between overall non-decency in the private rented sector and the social rented sector.

Figure 3

^{[footnote 2]}

2.3 Drivers of Non-Decent Homes in England

While this release does not tell us what is driving non-decency in each local area, we do have a sense of the kinds of dwellings that are more likely to be non-decent from the English Housing Survey.

• There is a strong relationship between energy efficiency and housing quality. In 2020, 96% of properties with an energy efficiency rating of band F and G failed the Decent Homes Standard^{[footnote 3]}.
• Across England, occupied flats and terraced houses have the highest proportion of non-decency (18% and 16% respectively). The lowest prevalence of non-decency is found in detached houses, with 11% being non-decent.
• Rural local authorities, with fewer total dwellings, tend to have higher proportions of occupied dwellings which fail the Decent Homes Standard.

Additionally, local authorities with higher proportions of dwellings built before 1919 tend to have higher proportions of occupied dwellings that fail the Decent Homes Standard.

Figure 4 ^{[footnote 4]}

3. HHSRS Category 1 hazards

The HHSRS is a risk-based assessment that identifies hazards in dwellings and evaluates their potential effects on the health and safety of occupants and their visitors, particularly vulnerable people. The most serious hazards are called Category 1 hazards and, where these exist in a home, it fails to meet the statutory minimum standard for housing in England. A dwelling will fail the Decent Homes Standard if it has one or more HHSRS Category 1 hazard.  

3.1 Proportion of homes with a Category 1 hazard by local authority area

Across England, local authorities with higher proportions of occupied dwellings with HHSRS Category 1 hazards are found in Yorkshire and the Humber, the North West, the South West and the East Midlands. London and the South East tend to have lower proportions of occupied dwellings with HHSRS Category 1 Hazards.

Figure 5

3.2 Dwellings with a Category 1 hazard by tenure and region

Generally, dwellings in the social rented sector in most local authorities have lower proportions of occupied dwellings with HHSRS Category 1 hazards than other tenures. Across England, 5% of occupied social rented homes had HHSRS Category 1 hazards, compared to 13% of privately rented occupied homes.

Across both sectors, the presence of Category 1 hazards is highest in local authorities across the North West and Yorkshire and the Humber. The South West, which shows high levels of overall non-decency compared to other regions, does not show this same prevalence for the presence of Category 1 hazards.

Figure 6

3.3 Drivers of homes with Category 1 hazards

The English Housing Survey can also give us more information about which dwellings are more likely to have HHSRS Category 1 Hazards.

• In 2020-21, 15% of dwellings in rural areas had at least one HHSRS Category 1 hazard, compared to 11% in city and urban areas ^{[footnote 4]}.
• There is a relationship between the age of a dwelling and the presence of HHSRS Category 1 Hazards. In 2020, 24% of dwellings built before 1919 contained HHSRS Category 1 hazards ^{[footnote 5]}.
• Category 1 hazards are observed in higher proportions in houses than in flats, particularly in terraced houses. In 2020-21, 11% of terraced houses, compared to 8% of flats, contained Category 1 hazards.

4. Official Statistics in Development

Official Statistics in development are defined in the Code of Practice for Statistics as “newly developed or innovative official statistics undergoing evaluation”, and were previously called ‘experimental statistics’. They are published to involve users and stakeholders in their development and to build in quality at an early stage.

These statistics are modelled from the English Housing Survey, which provides robust regional and national data (based on physical inspections of properties, undertaken by a qualified surveyor). Application of the model requires specific local area data on a variety of demographic and socio-economic factors. Ideally, EHS data would be used directly to model at the local level. However, this is not possible, given the relatively small sample used for the survey, which does not give sufficient coverage for each of the local authorities. Instead, EHS data has been used to create a model which can then be applied to a national, dwelling level dataset (which includes the 2021 Census and 2020 Experian dwelling-level data – more detail on these datasets is available later in this release).

With this approach, it is possible that small areas which are atypical in condition, may not be identified by the model and, where possible, we would encourage data users to compare the modelled results to other local data that might be available.

We welcome feedback on the data, especially where the modelled estimates do not align with other local authority level data and/or intelligence on housing quality. Please send your comments to: EHS@levellingup,gov.uk.

5. Definitions

For a dwelling to be considered “decent” under the Decent Homes Standard, it must:

• Meet the statutory minimum standard for housing (the Housing Health and Safety Rating System (HHSRS). Homes which contain a Category 1 hazard under the HHSRS are considered non-decent
• Provide a reasonable degree of thermal comfort
• Be in a reasonable state of repair
• Have reasonably modern facilities and services

The Housing Health and Safety Rating System (HHSRS) is a risk-based assessment that identifies hazards in dwellings and evaluates their potential effects on the health and safety of occupants and their visitors, particularly vulnerable people. The most serious hazards are called Category 1 hazards and where these exist in a home, it fails to meet the statutory minimum standard for housing in England.

6. Future developments

The Department will continue to consider how these statistics should be developed and updated going forward, including in light of feedback received on this statistical release. Our assumption at this stage is that they will be published annually.

The government is committed to levelling up the United Kingdom and has set out a series of priorities and missions to do so. In particular: by 2030, renters will have a secure path to ownership with the number of first-time buyers increasing in all areas; and the government’s ambition is for the number of non-decent rented homes to have fallen by 50%, with the biggest improvements in the lowest-performing areas. Part of our development work will consider how well these Official Statistics in Development can be used to measure such progress.

If you have views on these or other options for future development, please contact: EHS@levellingup,gov.uk.

7. How the data should be used

How the data should be used

• To show local authorities where housing quality might be poorer/worse than average.
• To examine how housing quality might vary by tenure and dwelling type
• To indicate the likely scale of the “problem”, i.e., by estimating the number of non-decent homes in each local authority
• To use alongside other local level data and/or intelligence to develop an understanding of housing condition.

How the data should not be used

• To identify vacant homes in poor condition (only occupied homes are included)
• As a replacement for survey data at the local authority level.  The Local Authority Housing Statistics data collection contains self-reported stock condition data regarding local authority stock. The Statistical Data Return contains self-reported stock condition data regarding private registered provider stock
• To estimate all dwelling stock by tenure at a local authority level
• To estimate the number of dwellings where HHSRS Category 1 Hazards or non-decent conditions have been remedied
• To compare effectiveness of local authority enforcement performance, including comparisons between years

8. Modelling Methodology

8.1 Data Available

For each Local Authority, estimates are available for:

• Total number of non-Decent dwellings and the proportion of dwellings failing to meet the Decent Homes Standard
• Non-Decent dwellings by tenure
• Non-Decent dwellings by dwelling type

The key datasets contributing to the modelling process were:

• Combined year 2019 and 2020 EHS dwelling and household data
• 2020 Experian dwelling-level data

• Lodged EPC data to March 2023

• 2021 Census demographic data

• April 2023 Local Authority / Unitary Authority geography

The 2020 sub-regional Decent Homes model is based on national data drawn from the EHS combined 2019 and 2020 datasets.  Application of the model requires specific local area data on a variety of demographic and socio-economic factors, which are derived from the 2021 Census small area datasets and 2020 Experian dwelling-level data.

Ideally, EHS data would be used directly to model at the local level. This is not possible, however, because of the relatively small sample used for the survey, which does not give sufficient coverage for each of the 296 Local Authorities, and certainly not for the individual Census Output Areas (COAs) within them. To produce results at this level, EHS data has been used to create a model which can then be applied to a national (dwelling level) dataset. It should be noted, however, that small areas which are atypical in condition, may not be identified by the model. It is therefore essential, wherever possible, to compare the modelled results to local data.

The process undertaken for the modelling can be summarised in the following stages:

8.2 Regression Model Testing

A large number of independent variables are individually tested against the binary Decent Homes indicator to determine which have the highest coefficient of determination, i.e. which are most sensitive in predicting the Decent Homes outcome. The variables are then grouped according to this coefficient and an iterative selection is made by running logistic regression on a developing group of these variables, with those least likely to contribute to final model predictions being dropped at each stage. The final set of variables contributing to the model is dependent on the results of this regression testing.

The 2020 decent homes model is based on the following eight variables, derived from the public and commercial sources listed above:

• Dwelling age – pre-1919, 1919 to 1944, 1945 to 1980, post-1980 (Experian)
• Mosaic household classifications by postcode – 15 socio-economic groups as detailed in the Mosaic guide (Experian)
• Proportion of centrally heated dwellings per COA (2021 Census)
• Tenure – owner occupied, private rented, social rented (Experian)
• Government Office Region (2020 EHS and Experian)
• Typical number of bedrooms by postcode area (Experian)
• Predominant tenure of dwelling per postcode area (Experian)
• Predominant age of dwelling per postcode area – 8 bands (Experian)

In addition to the regression modelling, the national set of lodged EPC data covering around 65% of the dwelling-level dataset is used to model the thermal comfort criterion as closely as possible.

8.3 Model application

The coefficients for each category of the final model’s independent variables are run to give the predicted likelihood for each dwelling in each area to be non-Decent. A further coefficient is included where the EPC data predicted that a dwelling falls below the thermal comfort measure.

These likelihoods are then combined to produce the total number and proportion of non-Decent dwellings at COA level. This is run separately for each region using a multiplying factor calculated from the modelled and published regional Decent Homes proportions applied to each COA non-Decent total, thus ensuring that the non-Decent regional proportions from the model are consistent with the EHS analysis.

8.4 Output area cloning

Due to geographical differences between the 2021 Census and other national data used in the modelling, a small number of COAs do not have Decent Homes data. These gaps are filled by identifying COAs with complete data, which shared identical or very similar characteristics to the missing cases. Census data is used for this comparison as it records proportions of particular characteristics rather than discrete categories, and so the process can more accurately match pairs of COAs.

8.5 Consolidation to national figures

To provide consistency between the modelled dwelling and Decent Homes numbers and the EHS regional figures, an adjustment is made in which small incremental changes are made randomly at COA level, until the totals of all dwellings and non-Decent dwellings are consistent with the published regional totals.

8.6 Validation and aggregation

The adjusted figures are re-checked against the published totals before the data is aggregated to Local Authority and regional level.

Further validation is applied to ensure the proportion of non-Decent homes in each COA is within an expected range, and that regional totals are consistent at each level of aggregation. Finally, the dwelling totals and number of non-decent homes at Local Authority level are consolidated to ensure consistency with both EHS regional totals and 2020 LA totals drawn from DLUHC data on the number of dwellings by tenure and District (Table 100). The published set of non-decent proportions are calculated from these consolidated dwelling totals.

9. Related data

9.1 English Housing Survey

The English Housing Survey is a continuous national survey commissioned by the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC). It collects information about people’s housing circumstances and the condition and energy efficiency of housing in England. It provides robust regional and national data on housing quality, based on physical inspections of properties, undertaken by a qualified surveyor. National Statistics publications from the English Housing Survey, on housing quality can be found here:

• Data on dwelling condition and safety

• Housing quality and condition report

9.2 Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) data

Based on certificates held on the Energy Performance of Buildings Register, these Energy Performance of Buildings Certificates statistics present information about the energy efficiency of domestic and non-domestic buildings in England and Wales that have been constructed, sold, or let since 2008, and of larger public authority buildings recorded since 2008. For the modelled estimates of housing quality, this data was used to model the thermal comfort criteria of the Decent Homes Standard, and the Excess Cold hazard in the HHSRS Category 1 hazard model.

There is a strong relationship between energy efficiency and housing quality, and most homes with poor energy efficiency do not meet the Decent Homes Standard.

9.3 Experian data

The modelling is supported by Experian household level data which provides an up-to-date portfolio of address, geographic and demographic data, which is used to inform BRE’s stock modelling estimates. Information on dwelling age, household composition, tenure and dwelling type have informed the likelihoods used in the Decent Homes and HHSRS Category 1 hazard models and helped to estimate the number of dwellings failing to meet each indicator.

9.4 2021 Census demographic data

During the regression analysis stage of this modelling, the 2021 Census data at COA level, was used to help identify demographic categories that were most likely to contribute to estimates of these housing quality indicators. The data were further used to provide a baseline position for the estimated number of dwellings in each local area, which were then refined through consolidation with recent data from EHS and other central government sources.

9.5 Welsh Housing Conditions Survey

The Welsh Housing Conditions Survey collects information about the condition and energy efficiency of all types of housing in Wales.

9.6 Scottish House Condition Survey

The Scottish House Condition Survey contains statistics on house condition, based on an annual survey sample of around 3,000 dwellings.

9.7 Northern Ireland Housing Statistics

The Northern Ireland Housing Statistics report contains information and statistics relating to the condition of homes in Northern Ireland.

10. Technical notes

Actual numbers of dwellings by local authority, tenure and dwelling type are indicative and based on the outputs from the modelling methodology described above. As such, stock totals and the numbers of non-decent homes, whether explicitly stated or inferred, should be viewed as an approximate measure of relative size against other local authorities, but should not be treated as surveyed totals.

The proportions of homes which are non-decent have been consistently modelled across the local areas as described above, and are indicative of their relative levels of non-decency, but are not based on a surveyed total of non-decent homes.

1. Estimates in this release are modelled using a household weighting, whereas data published in English Housing Survey reports uses a dwelling weighting. This can lead to differences in reported proportions, especially where sample sizes are small. ↩

2. The Isles of Scilly, in the South West, which have a high modelled value for non-decency due to a small sample size, are excluded from this scatter plot. ↩

3. English Housing Survey Housing quality and condition, 2020 (PDF, 646 KB) ↩

4. English Housing Survey data on dwelling condition and safety ↩ ↩²

5. English Housing Survey, 2020 to 2021: housing quality and condition ↩