Official Statistics

DCMS sectors economic estimates: Trade, 2022 and 2023 - technical and quality assurance report

Published 26 June 2025

Summary

This document covers the following topics:

1. An overview of the content covered in the statistical release ‘DCMS Sectors Economic Estimates: Trade 2022 and 2023’.

2. An overview of DCMS sectors, their overlaps, how they are defined, and limitations of these definitions.

3. The methodology underlying the statistical release, including data sources

4. The processes used to check that the estimates have been produced correctly

5. Other sources of information for the DCMS sectors.

6. Further information, including contact details for DCMS statisticians.

1. Overview of release

The statistics release ‘DCMS Sectors Economic Estimates: Trade, 2022 and 2023’ provides:

• estimates of exports and imports of goods in DCMS sectors (from 2016 to 2023) constructed from HMRC overseas trade statistics, where goods are defined based on the type of commodity being traded using internationally recognised 8-digit Combined Nomenclature (or CN08) commodity codes.

• estimates of exports and imports of services by businesses in DCMS sectors (from 2016 to 2023) constructed from the ONS International Trade in Services (ITIS) Survey. Service estimates are defined based on the industry of the business trading the service, rather than by the type of service being traded, using internationally recognised Standard Industrial Classification (or SIC) codes.

• exports and imports of tourism (from 2016 to 2023) constructed from the ONS International Passenger Survey (IPS) where exports are defined as spending on goods and services by overseas visitors to the UK and imports are defined as spending on goods and services by UK visitors overseas.

Estimates of trade in services and trade in goods are not comparable on any basis and should not be added together. This is because they use different data sources and different definitions as to what constitutes an import or an export. 

Values of imports and exports are given in current prices and have not been adjusted for inflation. Year on year increases between figures given in current prices are likely to be higher than the ‘real’ (inflation-adjusted) value. Changes over time are therefore reported here as changes in the proportion of total UK imports and exports.

The report provides commentary on trade in goods and services since 2018 (pre-COVID-19 pandemic) but the accompanying data tables includes figures from 2016 to 2023 and provide further breakdowns by selected countries, regions, continents and other amalgamations (e.g. European Union member states, North American Free Trade Association members, Gulf states).

Data is available for each DCMS sector (excluding civil society) and sub-sectors within the creative industries and cultural sector. There is significant overlap between DCMS sectors so users should be aware that the estimate for “DCMS sectors total” is lower than the sum of the individual sectors.

In this publication we have used 2018 as the baseline for pre-COVID comparisons for trade in goods and services because 2019 trends in trade in goods were volatile due to stockpiling related to potential EU-Exit issues. 2018 is considered the most recent ‘stable’ year for trends in trade in goods and services. This is in line with other government departments that publish trade statistics. For tourism, 2019 is used as the baseline year for pre-COVID comparisons as it is the last full year that tourism spending was unaffected by the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The estimates in the publication are consistent with national (UK) estimates, published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and HMRC.

1.1 Official Statistics

DCMS Sectors Economic Estimates: Trade, 2022 and 2023 is an official statistic and has been produced in line with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value set out in the Code of Practice for Statistics. 

In June 2019, a suite of DCMS Sector Economic Estimates were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR). A number of DCMS Sector Economic Estimates were assessed as complying with the standards trustworthiness, quality and value set out in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled as accredited official statistics. Accredited official statistics are called National Statistics in the Statistics and Regulation Service Act 2007. However, DCMS Sector Economic Estimates for Trade remain official statistics as advised by the Office for Statistics Regulation while the ONS undertakes ongoing work to improve the quality of the data that underpins DCMS sector trade statistics.

1.2 Users

The users of these statistics fall into five broad categories:

• ministers and other political figures

• policy and other professionals in DCMS and other government departments

• industries and their representative bodies

• charitable organisations

• academics

The primary use of these statistics is to monitor the performance of the industries in the DCMS sectors, helping to understand how current and future policy interventions can be most effective.

2. Sector definitions

Trade in goods estimates are defined by 8-digit commodity codes of the Combined Nomenclature (CN) based on the Harmonised System (HS) of tariff nomenclature used to identify categories of goods. A list of commodity codes used in DCMS sectors and sub-sectors for the trade in goods estimates are available in the accompanying tables.

Trade in services estimates are based on the Standard Industrial Classification 2007 (SIC) codes of the business trading the service. A list of SIC codes appearing in each sector and subsector for the trade in services estimates can be found in the accompanying tables.

This means nationally consistent sources of data can be used and enables international comparisons.

2.1 Overview of sectors

DCMS sectors

The sectors for which DCMS has responsibility are:

• civil society

• creative industries

• cultural sector

• gambling 

• sport

• tourism 

Estimates of trade in civil society are not covered in this release as there are no formally recognised measures of imports or exports for goods and/or services from the data sources available for this sector.

Figures for gambling sector goods imports and exports are also not included in this release as there are no goods associated with this sector in the data sources available.

Tourism is covered on a separate basis to the other sectors and cannot be combined with goods or services estimates. Tourism is defined by the characteristics of the consumer in terms of whether they are a tourist or resident, rather than by the goods and services produced themselves. Expenditure by overseas tourist visitors to the UK is used as a proxy for exports of goods and services for tourism. Expenditure by UK residents on their visits abroad is used as a proxy for imports of goods and services for Tourism.

In order to measure the size of the economy it is important to be able to define it. DCMS uses a range of definitions based on internal or UK agreed definitions. Definitions are  predominantly based on the Standard Industrial Classification 2007 (SIC) codes. This means nationally consistent sources of data can be used and enables international comparisons.

Each sector definition has been designed to be the best possible measure of that individual sector. There are overlaps between DCMS sectors, whereby an industry (as defined by 4-digit SIC codes) may be used in two sector definitions. In particular, the cultural sector is defined using SIC codes that are nearly all within the creative industries. These overlaps are accounted for in the Economic Estimates series to avoid double counting in DCMS sector totals. 

Figure 1 below visually shows the overlap between DCMS sectors in terms of SIC codes. Users should note that this does not give an indication of the magnitude of the value of overlap. For this, users should consult the main report. A list of SIC codes appearing in each sector and subsector can be found in the tables accompanying the release.

Figure 1: Overlap of SIC codes within DCMS sectors

The exact size of the overlap between sectors varies by measure. For the import of services figure in this release, the overlap between the sectors is as illustrated in Figure 2 below. Here the amount of one bar that is vertically above another bar indicates the size of the overlap. For example, the fact that most of the cultural sector bar is above the creative industries bar indicates that the most of the services imported by businesses in the cultural sector in 2023 were also classified, using SIC code definitions, as services imported by businesses in the creative industries sector.

Figure 2: Imports of services by businesses in DCMS sectors as a percentage of total UK services imports (%), 2023

2.2 Details of sector definitions

This section looks at sector definitions used in DCMS Sector Economic Estimates in more detail, and provides an overview of limitations.

DCMS sector definitions are mostly based on the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) framework which is used to classify business establishments and other statistical units by the type of economic activity in which they are engaged. The SIC system is internationally recognised, making it useful for comparisons across sectors, countries and over time. However, there are known limitations with the classification framework. As the balance and make-up of the economy changes, the SIC, finalised in 2007, is less able to provide the detail for important elements of the UK economy related to DCMS sectors. We will engage throughout 2025/26 with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on their revision of the UK-SIC framework. 

The SIC codes used to produce DCMS sector definitions are a ‘best fit’, subject to the limitations described in the following section.

Creative industries

The creative industries were defined in the government’s 2001 Creative Industries Mapping Document as “those industries which have their origin in individual creativity, skill and talent and which have a potential for wealth and job creation through the generation and exploitation of intellectual property”. Based on this definition, DCMS worked closely with stakeholders to determine which occupations and industries should be considered creative.

The creative industries were determined on the basis of creative intensity (the proportion of occupations in an industry that are creative), following the dynamic mapping process set out in a 2013 paper published by Nesta:

• Through consultation, a list of creative occupations was identified.
• The proportion of creative jobs in each industry was calculated (the creative intensity)
• Industries with creative intensity above a specified threshold (30%) are considered creative industries

The definition used for the creative industries in this release does not allow consideration of the value added of “creative” to the wider economy, such as creative occupations outside the creative industries. DCMS policy responsibility is for creative industries across the economy and therefore this is a significant weakness in the current approach.

Cultural sector

DCMS defines the cultural sector as those industries with a cultural object at the centre of the industry. DCMS proposed and consulted on a definition of the cultural sector in 2016, based on the availability of data through the SIC framework. There are limitations to the DCMS measurement of the cultural sector arising from the lack of detailed disaggregation possible using the standard industrial classifications. There are some cases where culture forms a small part of an industry classification and therefore cannot be separately identified and assigned as culture using standard data sources, this is particularly the case for the heritage sector. 

It is recognised that, due to the limitations associated with SIC codes, the SIC code used in past publications as a proxy for the Heritage sector (91.03 - Operation of historical sites and building and similar visitor attractions) is likely to be an underestimate of this sector’s value. We have changed the name of the Heritage sector to ‘Operation for historical sites and similar visitor attractions’ to reflect this. We have been working on assessing methodologies for producing heritage sector economic estimates based on a broader definition which more accurately reflects the heritage sector. We are continuing to develop this methodology.

Gambling

The definition of gambling used in the DCMS sectors economic estimates is consistent with the internationally agreed definition, SIC 92, gambling and betting activities.* 

Note on SIC 92.00: The gambling sector (SIC 92.00) is relatively small and therefore changes in trading activity, reporting structure or industrial classification for any business can have a large impact on the overall sector figures. This was witnessed in 2015 and 2017 data particularly, whilst between 2018 and 2021 and in 2023 the exports for services by the gambling sector failed disclosure checks for similar reasons. Care should therefore be taken when comparing these figures over time.

Sport

The definition of sport used in the release includes only those 4-digit SIC codes which are predominately sport. This aligns with the international statistical definition of sport based on the EU agreed Vilnius definition, and allows the contribution of sport to be considered in a way which is consistent with other DCMS sectors.

DCMS has previously published GVA and Employment estimates based on the broad Vilnius as part of the DCMS Sports Satellite Account. The broad definition is a more comprehensive measure of sport which considers the contribution of sport across a range of industries, for example sport advertising, and sport related construction. In October 2024, an updated Sports Satellite Account research report was published, providing estimates for 2021. However, this method is not used in the compilation of our trade statistics.

Tourism

Tourism is defined by the characteristics of the consumer in terms of whether they are a tourist or resident rather than by the goods and services produced themselves. This, therefore, differs from “traditional” industries such as gambling which is defined by the goods and services produced themselves, and means that a different approach to defining the industry must be used. The UK estimates are based on the methodology and definition set out in the UN International Recommendations for Tourism Statistics 2008 (IRTS 2008).

Other sector definitions

Additional analysis is presented for the audio visual sector and the arts and antiques market.

The definition of the audio visual sector is intended to reflect the sectors covered by the EU Audio Visual Media Services Directive, and includes the SIC codes outlined below:

• 59.11 - Motion picture, video and television programme production activities

• 59.12 - Motion picture, video and television programme post-production activities

• 59.13 - Motion picture, video and television programme distribution activities

• 59.2 - Sound recording and music publishing activities

• 60.1 - Radio broadcasting

• 60.2 - Television programming and broadcasting activities

• 63.91 - News agency activities

• 63.99 - Other information service activities n.e.c.

• 77.22 - Renting of video tapes and disks

• 77.4 - Leasing of intellectual property and similar products, except copyrighted works

The arts and antiques market combines two 5-digit SIC codes:

• 47.78/1 - Retail sale in commercial art galleries
• 47.79/1 - Retail sale of antiques including antique books, in stores

3. Data sources

This section provides details of how estimates of imports and exports of goods and services are produced. 

3.1 Trade in goods

All trade in goods data is sourced from HMRC’s Overseas trade in goods statistics. HMRC’s Trade in goods statistics are a detailed dataset covering the UK’s international trade in goods at a disaggregated country and product level and published monthly. The statistics provide access to both aggregated and detailed data for over 9,500 commodities and around 200 partner countries.

HMRC trade in goods data is based on a ‘cross-border’ or ‘physical movement’ principle where goods entering and leaving an economic territory are recorded as imports and exports respectively. This is different from ONS trade in goods statistics which are based on a ‘change of ownership’ principle where goods entering or leaving an economic territory are not recorded as imports or exports unless they change hands (between UK residents and non-residents). 

From 31 December 2020, the free movement of people and goods and services between the UK and the EU ended. This led to changes to the way that HMRC collects trade in goods statistics. As a result, there is a break in the time series for UK to EU goods export estimates from 1 January 2021 and for EU to UK goods imports from 1 January 2022.

UK to EU goods exports

Up to 31 December 2020, UK to EU goods exports statistics were collected via HMRC’s Intrastat survey. For goods moving from 1 January 2021, GB to EU goods exports statistics are compiled from customs export declarations made according to the requirements of the Taxation (Cross Border Trade) Act. Intrastat survey returns continue to be collected for goods exported from Northern Ireland to EU member states, under the terms of the Windsor Framework. As a result of these changes, there is a break in the time series for UK to EU goods export statistics from January 2021. 

UK goods imports from the EU

Up to 31 December 2021, UK goods imports from the EU statistics were collected via HMRC’s Intrastat survey. From 1 January 2022, statistics on imports to GB from the EU were compiled from customs import declarations. Intrastat survey returns continue to be collected for goods imported from EU member states to Northern Ireland. As a result of these changes, there is a break in the time series for EU to UK goods import statistics from January 2022.

UK goods trade with non-EU countries

The data source for UK goods trade with non-EU countries is customs declarations and did not change following EU-exit. Non-EU goods trade statistics are compiled from two systems: CHIEF (Customs Handling of Import and Export Freight) and the Customs Declarations Service (CDS).

More information about HMRC trade in goods data sources and methodology is available in the (HMRC Overseas trade in goods statistics methodology and quality report)[https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/overseas-trade-statistics-methodologies/overseas-trade-in-goods-statistics-methodology-and-quality-report–3#about-hmrcs-trade-in-goods-statistics].

3.2 Trade in services

Estimates of imports and exports of services are based on data from the International Trade in Services (ITIS) survey. The data are calculated on a change of ownership or ‘Balance of Payments’ basis i.e. services entering and leaving an economic territory are not recorded as imports or exports unless they change ownership (between UK residents and non-residents). By contrast, HMRC goods data defines exports and imports on a cross-border basis (even if the ownership has not changed). The ITIS survey is completed by service-trading businesses who fill out a series of fields, essentially estimating trade in services to the nearest £1000 for a range of service types. They also log their business, which is then matched to an industry SIC code.

Total UK estimates which are used to calculate the percentage of UK total for each sector are taken from the annual Pink Book, which balances inward and outward transactions to/from the UK. The data used are:

• exports of services, (KTMQ – reference in the Pink Book tables)

• imports of services, (KTMR – reference in the Pink Book tables)

In summary, the data presented in this report on trade in services

• are based on official statistics data sources

• are based on internationally-harmonised codes

• are based on survey data and, as with all data from surveys, there will be an associated error margin surrounding these estimates

Sampling error is the error caused by observing a sample (as in a survey) instead of the whole population (as in a census). While each sample is designed to produce the “best” estimate of the true population value, a number of equal-sized samples covering the population would generally produce varying population estimates.

This means we cannot say an estimate of, for example, 20% is very accurate for the whole population. Our best estimates, from the survey sample, suggest that the figure is 20%, but due to the degree of error, the true population figure could perhaps be 18% or 22%. This is not an issue with the quality of the data or analysis; rather it is an inherent principle when using survey data to inform estimates. 

This means the estimates are:

• comparable at both a national and international level

• comparable over time, allowing trends to be measured and monitored

However, this also means the estimates are subject to limitations of the underlying classifications of the make-up of the UK economy. For example, the standard industrial classification (SIC) codes were developed in 2007 and have not been revised since. Emerging sectors, such as artificial intelligence, are therefore hard to capture and may be excluded or mis-coded.

3.3 Trade in tourism

Exports and imports of goods and services for tourism are taken from estimates of spend by overseas residents in the UK and spend by UK residents abroad, respectively. This data is sourced from the ONS International Passenger Survey (IPS) in which there is no attempt to classify goods and services or spend by industry. Unlike estimates for other DCMS sectors, we therefore provide estimates of trade in both goods and services combined for tourism using the definitions below:

• imports of tourism – spending on goods and services by UK residents on trips abroad

• exports of tourism – spending on goods and services by overseas residents during visits to the UK

These figures represent trade in goods and services combined and therefore are not directly comparable with the trade in services or trade in goods estimates presented for all other sectors. Therefore, estimates of imports and exports of tourism are not presented in the DCMS sector totals.

The data source for estimates of trade in tourism, the International Passenger Survey, was suspended from 16 March 2020 to 18 January 2021 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The travel and tourism statistics for April to December 2020 published by ONS are based on administrative sources and modelling. There are therefore no breakdowns available by world regions or individual countries for 2020. Further information on the methodology used to produce the estimates can be found on the ONS Overseas travel and tourism Apr to Jun 2020 release, Section 6

4. Methodology

This section summarises the data collection methods and the production of these statistics by DCMS and our data providers: HMRC and the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

4.1 Trade in goods

From 31 December 2020, the free movement of people and goods and services between the UK and the EU ended. This led to changes to the way that HMRC collects trade in goods statistics.

Data for GB goods trade with EU countries was formerly collected through the Intrastat system - a monthly business survey used to determine the level of trade conducted within the EU. UK businesses that trade to or from other EU Member States, and which meet the reporting threshold (described in the next section) for intra-EU Arrivals and Dispatches were legally obliged to submit supplementary trade declarations using the Intrastat system. 

For goods moving from 1 January 2021 for GB to EU exports and from 1 January 2022 for EU to GB imports, data are compiled directly from customs export declarations made according to the requirements of the Taxation (Cross Border Trade) Act.  As a result of the changes, there is a break in the time series for published UK to EU goods exports from January 2021 and for EU to UK imports from 1 January 2022 . This has reduced comparability across the years.

Data for non-EU trade in goods are collected from customs declarations made to HMRC when goods leave or enter the UK and this did not change following the EU exit. Estimates are compiled from two systems: CHIEF: (Customs Handling of Import and Export Freight) and the Customs Declarations Service (CDS) . HMRC applies disclosure control to the data before it is released to DCMS. Intrastat survey returns continue to be collected for goods trade between Northern Ireland and EU member states, under the terms of the Windsor Framework.

There are significant differences between how data is collected from the Intrastat survey and from the administrative customs declarations. This means data previously collected from Intrastat are not strictly comparable with data currently collected from customs declarations. Further information about these two data sources is provided below.

Intrastat Survey

Intrastat is a HMRC monthly survey, requiring returns from VAT-registered businesses importing and exporting with EU Member States above set value thresholds. Before EU Exit, returns were required from all UK businesses (registered for VAT) who imported at least £1.5 million and/or those who exported more than £250,000 by value per annum. Following EU Exit, Intrastat is used for collecting statistics on the trade in goods between Northern Ireland and EU member states. Businesses who imported at least £500,000 from EU member states to Northern Ireland and/or those who exported more than £250,000 from Northern Ireland to EU member states, are required to submit an Intrastat return. These thresholds are reviewed annually. For more information about Intrastat, see HMRC’s Notice 60: Intrastat generalguide. 

Customs declarations

Customs import and export declarations are required to process the movement of goods at the border and are considered an administrative data source. The customs declaration requirements are more complex than the single monthly aggregated Intrastat return and can result in differences between dates of declaration and actual movement of the goods. The trade in goods statistics methodology relies upon the clearance date of the customs import/export declaration for its inclusion within the relevant month of account rather than the declared physical movement date used from the Intrastat survey.

4.2 Trade in services

The ONS International Trade In Services (ITIS) data shows the import and export activity of UK companies overseas and is the main source of information for UK trade. The data is based solely on survey data.

ITIS data are based on a quarterly sample of approximately 2,200 businesses and an annual sample of approximately 27,200 businesses. Response rate targets are 85% for both annual and quarterly ITIS data.

The survey data from both the quarterly and annual results are combined to produce the annual ITIS estimates and are used as a main data source to compile total trade in services estimates. It is worth noting that the surveys do not provide full coverage of the UK economy, and excluded sectors include: travel and transport; banking and other financial institutions; higher education; and most activities in the legal professions. Results from the ITIS survey made up approximately 66% of total exports and 60% of total imports in 2021.

The ITIS survey is supplemented by the Annual Business Survey (ABS). Historically, ITIS’ product-level estimates have been derived from the ABS. Since 2018, product- and industry-level data have been improved by directly surveying companies operating in some industries from ITIS itself. However, the ABS is still used as part of the process, for example to help inform the sample for these industries.

ITIS data are collected by both industry and service on a geographical basis, by collecting data for the countries to which services are exported to and where they are imported from. The ITIS estimates are published annually.

Data relating to the import or export of goods are excluded from this survey. However, merchanting (earnings from arranging the sale of goods between two countries outside the UK and where the goods never physically enter the UK) is included along with earnings from commodity trading. As with merchanting, the services element is calculated as the businesses’ profit minus the loss.

Further methodological information is available in the ONS ITIS QMI report. 

4.3 Trade in tourism

Travel and tourism statistics are usually based on the results of the International Passenger Survey (IPS), but the survey was suspended on 16 March 2020 because of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. No IPS data were collected for the period when the survey was not operational (16 March 2020 to 18 January 2021). Tourism data for the months April to December 2020, are based on administrative sources and modelling. See ONS Overseas Travel and Tourism: 2020 for further information.

IPS estimates provide information on international travel and tourism (visits between the UK and abroad of less than 12 months). Published estimates are based on face-to-face interviews with a random sample of passengers as they enter or leave the UK by the principal air, sea and tunnel routes. Just under 285,000 passengers responded in 2022, representing about 0.15% of travellers. Response rates are generally high for all modes of transport and around 63% of sampled passengers responded to the survey in January 2023.

The IPS uses a multi-stage sample design, where the sampling for air, sea and tunnel travel is carried out separately, although the underlying principle for each mode of travel is broadly similar. In the absence of a sampling frame of travellers, time periods (or sea or shuttle crossings) at selected ports and routes are chosen at the first stage and travellers are then systematically selected at fixed intervals from a random start within these interviewing shifts or crossings at the second stage. Details of the sampling process are published in the International Passenger Survey methodology.

Further information is available in the IPS QMI report.

5. Quality assurance processes at HMRC and ONS

This section summarises the quality assurance processes applied during the production of these statistics by our data providers, HMRC and the Office for National Statistics (ONS), as well as those applied by DCMS.

5.1 Quality assurance processes at HMRC - Trade in goods

Quality assurance at HMRC takes place at a number of stages and is outlined below. To note, information presented here on the data sources are taken from the Overseas trade in goods statistics methodology and quality report and should be credited to HMRC.

HMRC carries out extensive validation procedures as part of its data processing. A validity error is where a field has been submitted in an incorrect format or is missing where required. Validity checks are carried out in three ways:

• electronically by HMRC computer systems,
• verifying data fields by reference to the original source document, or
• By contacting the business or agent

Auto corrections are built into HMRC computer systems to cope with certain common types of error. Examples include obsolete commodity codes, partially invalid commodity codes (e.g. only the first six of the eight digits are valid), invalid/obsolete country/port codes etc.

Other checks on the trade data focus on value and quantity data. For example, HMRC carries out credibility checks on the relationships between value and quantity and have developed parameters for each commodity code.

5.2 Quality assurance processes at ONS - Trade in services

Quality assurance at ONS takes place at a number of stages, outlined below. To note, information presented here on the data sources are taken from the International trade in services Quality Methodology Information (QMI) and should be credited to the ONS.

Validation and quality assurance

There is no simple way of measuring the accuracy of ITIS statistics, that is, the extent to which they measure the underlying “true” value for a particular period. Non-sampling errors are not easy to quantify and include errors of coverage, measurement, processing and non-response. Various procedures and checks are made to ensure these errors are minimised. As ITIS is based on survey responses, ONS systems validate these entries and prompt confirmation of suspect data is sought.

Every effort is made to ensure that the series are comparable over time. International standards (BPM6) and MSITS 2010) are used in the production of ITIS data; therefore, figures published by the UK should be comparable with other countries. UK representation in working groups helps ensure that the UK is synchronised with any changes along with other countries.

Survey returns are run through a series of checks to identify errors. These checks ensure that:

• responses to individual questions are consistent within the questionnaire as a whole, that is, totals equate to the sum of the parts

• the return is consistent with historical data from the business

Further quality assurance applied includes the detection and treatment of outliers; application of imputation (ratio and means of ratio) and estimation; and the application of disclosure control. Statistical disclosure control methodology is applied to the ITIS survey data before release of the publication. This means that some published tables have been altered to ensure that information attributable to an individual or individual organisation is not identifiable in any published outputs. The Code of Practice for Statistics sets out practices for how we protect data from being disclosed.

5.3 Quality assurance process at ONS – Trade in tourism

Quality assurance at ONS takes place at a number of stages, outlined below. To note, information presented here on the data sources are taken from the International Passenger Survey Quality Methodology Information (QMI) and should be credited to the ONS.

A number of checks are built into the data entry on the tablet, which acts as the first form of data validation and thus reduces the number of errors. On return of survey data to the office, a comprehensive suite of edits and validation checks are carried out to clarify (and correct where necessary) any outstanding issues with the data. These include:

• checking zero spend from the completed questionnaire

• checking high spend to ensure this has been correctly coded

• coding towns, countries, airlines, not included on the interviewers’ coding frames

• checking missing information to determine whether anything was noted in the program that would enable the information to be input

• reviewing internal inconsistencies that have been identified or flagged by the interviewer

Where the responses for the main items of interest are missing, e.g. the amount spent on a fare, the values are imputed. The IPS implements a mean-value within class imputation procedure as detailed in the IPS methodology note.

6. Quality assurance processes at DCMS

The majority of quality assurance of the data underpinning the DCMS sectors economic estimates trade release takes place at HMRC and ONS, through the processes described above. However, further quality assurance checks are carried out within DCMS at various stages.

Production of the report is typically carried out by one member of staff, whilst quality assurance is completed by at least one other, to ensure an independent evaluation of the work.

6.1 Data requirements

For trade in goods, data for the UK totals are downloadable from the HMRC website, via the “build your own tables” platform, however for ease of use, HMRC provides bespoke analysis for DCMS sectors, sent to the department as an Excel spreadsheet which includes breakdowns by countries. HMRC applies disclosure control to the data before sending it to DCMS and therefore DCMS does not apply any further disclosure control. More information can be found on the UK Trade Info website.

For the trade in services data, DCMS discusses its data requirements with ONS and these are formalised as a Data Access Agreement (DAA). The DAA covers which data are required, the purpose of the data, and the conditions under which ONS provide the data. Discussions of requirements and purpose with ONS improve the understanding of the data at DCMS, helping us to ensure we receive the correct data and use it appropriately.

For tourism estimates, data are taken directly from the ONS International Passenger Survey (IPS) specifically the Travel Trends annual release . Additionally, some specific, detailed country breakdowns data are received from Visit Britain (for example, breakdowns for smaller countries not published by the ONS).

6.2 Checking of the data delivery

Trade in goods

Once the data is sent to DCMS, the following initial steps are taken:

1. Check for changes made to the Combined Nomenclature codes by EU agencies using correlation tables and whether these affect any of the DCMS Sector goods codes

2. Decide how and where (in which DCMS Sector, if applicable) to classify the new Commodity Codes (resulting from the changes). This is done by matching the CN08 codes to the European Classification of Economic Activities (NACE) 2.1 at the 4-digit level, which is equivalent to 4 digit SIC codes.

3. Lookup tables can then be created for DCMS sectors by identifying SIC codes for each sector. These tables are published along with the published statistics for trade in goods in the DCMS sectors.

Data analysis

The trade in goods table production is carried out in the programming language R with built in code to calculate the Below Threshold Trade Average estimates for EU Trade. The Intrastat dataset only requires trade above set thresholds to be included (£250,000 for exports; £1.5m for imports). If a business’s EU Exports and/or Imports for a calendar year exceed the threshold (£250,000 for EU exports and £1,500,000 for EU imports) they are required to submit monthly Intrastat supplementary declarations. Therefore, an estimate for trade below this threshold is required and this is called BTTA. BTTA is only estimated for EU trade, so this does not affect Non-EU trade.

Once tables have been run in R and exported in Excel for the latest year, DCMS builds in the following checks at this stage:

• Checks that summing up breakdowns gives the same figure as the total they contribute to. E.g.:
  • Do sub-sectors within the creative industries sum to the creative industries total?
  • Do the individual geographic figures sum up to the wider geographic total (e.g. do the individual continents sum up to the World total?)?
• “Sense checks” of the data. E.g.:
  • Are the proportions of each sector and subsectors similar to last year? If not, could this be due to changes to the methodology?
  • Looking at any large differences between the data and possible causes to these.

Trade in services

For these trade in services estimates, we have an ongoing data access agreement with ONS which allows DCMS to have access to the ITIS microdata. estimates prior to publication by ONS. 

For this particular data we check that:

• We have received all data at the 4 digit SIC code level, which is required for us to aggregate up to produce estimates for our sectors and sub-sectors.

• Data at the 4 digit SIC code has not been rounded unexpectedly. This would cause rounding errors when aggregating up to produce estimates for our sectors and sub-sectors.

Data analysis

Data provided by ONS requires primary, secondary and tertiary disclosure controls to minimise risk of disclosive data being published. These are applied by DCMS in Excel. DCMS also builds in the following checks at this stage:

• Checks that summing up breakdowns gives the same figure as the total they contribute to. E.g.:
  • Do sub-sectors within the creative industries sum to the creative industries total?
  • Do the individual geographic figures sum up to the wider geographic total (e.g. do the individual continents sum up to the World total?)? Do these geographic classifications satisfy the relevant guidance (e.g. BPM6)?
• “Sense checks” of the data, which can then be queried with ONS colleagues E.g.:
  • Are the proportions of each sector and subsectors similar to last year? If not, why?
  • Looking at any large differences between the data, when compared like-for-like with the previous year.

Trade in tourism

For the tourism estimates, DCMS take the latest figures from the IPS that are published by the ONS. Additionally, some specific, detailed country breakdowns data are received from Visit Britain (for example, breakdowns for smaller countries not published by the ONS). The relevant data from both these datasets are then included in the published tables.

For the tourism data, we check that:

• The data has been copied correctly from the files received by the data provider.

• The correct data year is copied over.

6.3 Quality assurance of data analysis

Once analysis is complete for the goods and services data, DCMS document the checks needed for quality assurers to carry out.

The checks for this release include:

• Introductory checks (correct files, years etc. used).

• Checking that the various stages of data processing have been correctly calculated. This includes checking that:    - The syntax is accurate    - The correct codes (SIC or Commodity) have been aggregated together to form DCMS sector (and sub-sector) estimates.    - That all codes we require are included, and that any non-DCMS codes have not been included by accident.

• Checking the data to make sure it is not possible to derive disclosive data from the figures that are published. (Only applicable for Services data).

• Making sure the correct data has been pasted to the final tables for publication and are formatted correctly.

• Making sure all charts are linking (correctly) to the right data.

6.4 Dissemination

Finalised figures are disseminated within spreadsheets and a written report (which includes written text, graphs, tables and infographics) published on GOV.UK. From spring 2020 statistical reports are published in HTML format. These are produced by the Trade statistics lead. Before publishing, a quality assurer checks the figures match between the working-level analysis, the tables and the written report. The quality assurer also makes sure any statements made about the figures (e.g. regarding trends) are correct according to the analysis and checks for spelling or grammar errors.

7. Other data sources

It is recognised that there are different ways to define sectors, but their relevance depends on what they are needed for. Government generally favours classification systems which are: 

• rigorously measured

• internationally comparable

• nationally consistent

• ideally applicable to specific policy interventions

These are the main reasons for DCMS constructing sector classifications from 8-digit commodity codes of the Combined Nomenclature (CN) and Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes. However, DCMS accepts that there are limitations with these approaches and alternative definitions can be useful where a policy-relevant grouping of businesses crosses existing 8-digit commodity codes and Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes. DCMS is aware of other estimates of its sectors. These estimates use various methods and data sources, and can be useful for serving several purposes, e.g. monitoring progress under specific policy themes such as community health or the environment, or measuring activities subsumed across a range of SICs and commodity codes.

The table below shows different sources of analysis measuring UK trade from other organisations. The sources also include data on some DCMS sectors although definitions differ across the organisations. It is recognised that there will be many other sources of evidence from industry bodies, for example, which have not been included in this table. This will be developed over time to capture a wider spectrum of stakeholder’s releases.

Table 1: Alternative data sources measuring UK trade.

Organisation	Summary of data source
Office for National Statistics (ONS)	UK Trade statistics compiled by ONS are measured through both imports and exports of goods and/or services. Data is supplied from over 30 feeder sources including a variety of admin sources, the main one being HMRC (for goods data) and from surveys such as ITIS (international Trade in Services) and IPS (International Passenger Survey). ONS makes several adjustments to the trade in goods data provided by HMRC to meet the international definitions of Balance of Payments statistics - for example recording when goods actually change ownership. This adjustment enables the trade in goods figures to be added to the trade in services figures to give a total trade figure that is consistent on a balance of payment basis.
Department for Business and Trade (DBT)	DBT publishes statistics on international trade, including imports and exports, strategic export controls, foreign direct investment, and inward investment. Data published by DBT draws on a number of sources from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) and international databases.
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)	UNCTAD collects, manages and disseminates data, statistics and trends in international trade and trade policy, including customs tariffs, tariff preferences, trade agreements, non-tariff measures and trade defence measures, and trade flows. Data is available for its 195 members, including the UK.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)	The OECD is an intergovernmental economic organisation with 38 member countries (including the UK) ,founded in 1961 to stimulate economic progress and world trade. The OECD publishes statistics on exports and imports of OECD countries and provides a detailed insight into the most recent trends in trading patterns for OECD countries with the rest of the world. Data are broken down by economic groupings, by country (including the UK) and by region.
World Trade Organisation (WTO)	The WTO publishes statistics on merchandise trade and trade in services statistics (annual, quarterly and monthly), market access indicators (bound, applied & preferential tariffs), non-tariff information as well as other indicators. Data is available for its 164 members, including the UK.