Energy and emissions projections: Net Zero Strategy baseline (partial interim update December 2021)
Projections of greenhouse gas emissions and energy demand from 2020 to 2040.
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Government published its Net Zero Strategy in October 2021. The Net Zero Strategy baseline projections are a partial interim update to the Energy and Emissions Projections (EEP) series.
Projection of emissions reductions due to policies have not been updated since the last edition, Updated energy and emissions projections: 2019, published October 2020. Policies announced since then are included in the main body of the Net Zero Strategy but not in the baseline presented in the Net Zero Strategy Technical Annex or in this EEP publication.
In this edition, we have not updated annexes B, D, M and N or the web figures and tables. An additional breakdown by Net Zero Strategy categories is shown in Annex A: NZS Categories: Greenhouse gas emissions by source.
We published further net zero analysis in Annex O (a report and 5 annexes) on 7 March 2022. These show 4 indicative power sector scenarios out to 2050, representing lower and higher electricity demand, with and without hydrogen-based generation.
The Net Zero Strategy baseline projections is a partial interim update to what is usually referred to as the EEP central or ‘reference’ scenario. See the covering note for more details on this.
Contact us
- send enquiries about the projections to: emissionsprojections@beis.gov.uk
- send questions about the Net Zero Strategy to: BEISNetZeroStrategy@beis.gov.uk
Please note that we are unable to provide any breakdown of projected renewable electricity generation, capacity or new build by technology.
Last updated 7 March 2022 + show all updates
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Added Annex O Major power producers' supplementary data on net zero scenarios: total electricity generation by source (Annex G and J format), cumulative new electricity generating capacity (Annex H format), total electricity generating capacity (Annex I and L format).
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First published.