Research and analysis

Energy and emissions projections: 2021 to 2040

Projections of energy demand, greenhouse gas emissions and electricity generation from 2021 to 2040.

• From: Department for Energy Security and Net Zero and Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy
• Published: 18 October 2022
• Last updated: 17 May 2023
  Show all updates

  1. 17 May 2023

     Added Annex O: Net zero and the power sector scenarios, and all its supplementary data.

  2. 10 March 2023

     The revision is a correction due to an error in power sector modelling which was identified after publication. Revised reference case has been added as a new sheet at the front of each affected annex (all except D, F and M).

  3. 9 December 2022

     Revised version of Annex E: Primary energy demand published.

  4. 30 November 2022

     A revised version of 'Annex E: Primary energy demand' will be published on 9 December 2022 (rather than 30 November 2022 as previously stated). The other annexes are not affected.

  5. 8 November 2022

     We have removed 'Annex E: Primary energy demand' because a particular type of gas demand was inadvertently excluded from the total. We will publish a revised version by 30 November 2022. The other annexes are not affected.

  6. 18 October 2022

     First published.

Documents

Updated energy and emissions projections 2021 to 2040

PDF, 515 KB, 31 pages

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Annex A: National Communication categories: Greenhouse gas emissions by source (revised 10 March 2023)

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Annex A: Net Zero Strategy categories: Greenhouse gas emissions by source (revised 10 March 2023)

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Annex B: Carbon dioxide emissions by source (revised 10 March 2023)

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Annex C: Carbon dioxide emissions by IPCC category (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (revised 10 March 2023)

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Annex C: Non Carbon dioxide emissions by IPCC category (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (revised 10 March 2023)

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Annex D: Policy savings in the projections

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Annex E: Primary energy demand (revised 10 March 2023)

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Annex F: Final energy demand

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Annex G: Major power producers' generation by source (revised 10 March 2023)

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Annex H: Major power producers' cumulative new electricity generating capacity (revised 10 March 2023)

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Annex I: Major power producers' total electricity generating capacity (revised 10 March 2023)

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Annex J: Total electricity generation by source (revised 10 March 2023)

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Annex K: Total cumulative new electricity generating capacity (revised 10 March 2023)

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Annex L: Total electricity generating capacity (revised 10 March 2023)

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Annex M: Growth assumptions and prices

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Annex N: Projected emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases 2021 to 2040

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Web tables

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Web figures: fig 2.2 only (revised 10 March 2023)

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Web figures

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Methodology summary (version published April 2019 with Energy and Emissions Projections 2018)

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/794741/energy-emissions-projections-methodology-overview.pdf

Annex O: Net zero and the power sector scenarios

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Annex O supplementary data: Major power producers' generation by source (Net Zero scenarios in Annex G format)

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Annex O supplementary data: Major power producers' cumulative new electricity generating capacity (Net Zero scenarios in Annex H format)

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Annex O supplementary data: Major power producers' total electricity generating capacity (Net Zero scenarios in Annex I format)

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Annex O supplementary data: Total electricity generation by source (Net Zero scenarios in Annex J format)

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Annex O supplementary data: Total cumulative new electricity generating capacity (Net Zero scenarios in Annex K format)

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Annex O supplementary data: Total electricity generating capacity (Net Zero scenarios in Annex L format)

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Details

Update 17 May 2023

Added Annex O: Net zero and the power sector scenarios, and all its supplementary data.

Update 10 March 2023

The revision (published 10 March 2023) is a correction due to an error in power sector modelling which was identified after publication. This led to some Combined Heat and Power (CHP) capacity being double-counted in the original October 2022 publication.

In comparison to the October 2022 reference projections, the correction means that emissions are now slightly higher for energy supply, and slightly lower for industry, particularly in the early 2020s. For each year after 2021, the net change is less than 1 MtCO2e.

This revised reference case has been added as a new sheet at the front of each affected annex (all except D, F and M).

The energy and emissions projections publication provides projections of energy, emissions and electricity generation under policies that have been implemented and those that are planned where the level of funding has been agreed and the design of the policy is near final.

The report contains projections of UK performance against national greenhouse gas targets under existing policies. It includes projections of the demand for each type of fuel in different sectors of the economy. The publication discusses the projected demand for electricity and indicates what mix of generation will meet it.

All enquiries about the projections should be sent to: emissionsprojections@beis.gov.uk. For questions on the assumptions behind the projections, please see Annex M for source information.

We are unable to provide any breakdown of projected renewable electricity generation, capacity or new build by technology.