Disability foresight research: future trends for disabled people
A report by the National Centre for Social Research on how the needs and experiences of disabled people will evolve over the next 5, 10 and 20 years.
Documents
Details
In line with the government’s commitment to use futures research to make policy-making more strategic and proactive, the Cabinet Office Disability Unit commissioned the National Centre for Social Research (NatCen) to conduct this futures study.
The research was designed to explore how the needs and experiences of disabled people in the UK might evolve over the next 5, 10, and 20 years.
Why this research was commissioned
Disabled people in the UK face multiple intersecting challenges and barriers to full inclusion. This research helps the government and other stakeholders better anticipate and respond to evolving needs by looking beyond existing constraints.
It aims to identify:
- social, environmental, economic, and technological trends likely to impact disabled people
- new challenges and opportunities generated by these emerging trends
- potential enablers for positive change
How to interpret this report
This report uses a ‘futures’ approach, which focuses on uncertainty and the fact that current realities can change rapidly. It is not a set of predictions or a statement of government policy.
The core of the research involved ‘world-building’ exercises with 12 disabled people’s organisations (DPOs). Readers should note:
- speculative scenarios – participants were asked to imagine ‘speculative’ future worlds that differ radically from the present
- extreme outcomes – groups built worlds based on extreme hypothetical outcomes – such as the full reversal of climate change or an AI-assisted world with full employment – to surface novel insights and enablers for change
- not feasibility studies – the worlds described are often aspirational or utopian and were not intended to be realistic in relation to current circumstances or funding constraints
Summary of key findings
The research highlights a contrast between existing evidence and the optimistic future visions held by DPOs. While scoping research of current trends suggested largely negative outcomes, DPOs identified several key enablers that could drive a more positive future:
- participants envisioned a central role for government in driving change through increased funding for public services (such as the NHS, housing, and transport), the full adoption of the Social Model of Disability, and more robust enforcement of existing legislation like the Equality Act 2010
- the private sector was viewed as a secondary but vital actor, particularly in developing inclusive assistive technologies and AI tools that could remove human bias from recruitment and improve employment rates for disabled people
- a move toward a more equitable future requires a significant increase in the representation of disabled people in leadership roles, elected office, and the media
- across all speculative worlds, DPOs emphasised that disabled people must be actively involved in local and national decision-making
- improving public awareness through education is seen as essential to overcoming current discrimination and the negative perception that disabled people are a “strain” on public resources
Alternative formats
Alternative formats of this research are available, including:
- HTML
- Easy Read
- British Sign Language (BSL)
- audio
- Welsh translation
If you use assistive technology (such as a screen reader) and need a version of this document in a more accessible format, please email accessible.formats@cabinetoffice.gov.uk. Please tell us what format you need. It will help us if you say what assistive technology you use.