Research and analysis

Consensus statements and medium-term projections on COVID-19

Consensus statements and medium-term projections from the UK Health Security Agency's Epidemiology Modelling Review Group (EMRG).

Documents

EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 9 November 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 26 October 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 12 October 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 28 September 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 14 September 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 31 August 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 17 August 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 3 August 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 20 July 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 6 July 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 22 June 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 25 May 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 11 May 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 27 April 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 13 April 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 30 March 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 23 March 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 16 March 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 9 March 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 2 March 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 23 February 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 16 February 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 9 February 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 2 February 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 26 January 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 19 January 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 12 January 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 6 January 2022

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 22 December 2021

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 15 December 2021

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 8 December 2021

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 1 December 2021

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 24 November 2021

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 17 November 2021

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 10 November 2021

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 3 November 2021

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 27 October 2021

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 20 October 2021

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 13 October 2021

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 6 October 2021

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 29 September 2021

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 22 September 2021

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 15 September 2021

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 8 September 2021

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 1 September 2021

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 25 August 2021

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 18 August 2021

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 11 August 2021

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 4 August 2021

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 28 July 2021

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EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 21 July 2021

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Details

These consensus statements on coronavirus (COVID-19) are shared with acknowledgment to SPI-M-O, who have developed and shared modelling methodologies and contribute model outputs to these combined estimates.

Consensus statements are an assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) updates its advice accordingly.

UKHSA is now publishing the Medium Term Projections (MTPs), previously published through the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE). These projections continue to be produced using a combination of models provided by academic groups from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M).

These papers contain estimates of the reproduction number (R) and growth rate. See the latest R value and growth rates, and background information. The devolved administrations publish estimates for their own nations.

These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on contributors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.

Published 13 August 2021
Last updated 25 November 2022 + show all updates
  1. Added consensus statement and medium-term projections for 9 November 2022.

  2. Added consensus statement and medium-term projections for 26 October 2022.

  3. Added consensus statement and medium-term projections for 12 October 2022.

  4. Added consensus statement and medium-term projections for 28 September 2022.

  5. Added consensus statement and medium-term projections for 14 September 2022.

  6. Added consensus statement and medium-term projections for 31 August 2022.

  7. Added consensus statement and medium-term projections for 17 August 2022.

  8. Added consensus statement and medium-term projections for 3 August 2022.

  9. Added consensus statement and medium-term projections for 20 July 2022.

  10. Added consensus statement and medium-term projections for 6 July 2022.

  11. Added consensus statement and medium-term projections for 22 June 2022.

  12. Added consensus statement and medium-term projections for 25 May 2022.

  13. Added consensus statement and medium-term projections for 11 May 2022.

  14. Added medium-term projections and EMRG consensus statement on COVID-19: 27 April 2022.

  15. Added medium-term projections: 29 April 2022 and EMRG consensus statement: 13 April 2022.

  16. Added consensus statement for 30 March 2022.

  17. Added consensus statement for 23 March 2022.

  18. Added consensus statement for 16 March 2022.

  19. Added consensus statement for 9 March 2022.

  20. Added consensus statement for 2 March 2022.

  21. Added consensus statements for 16 and 23 February 2022.

  22. Added consensus statement for 9 February 2022.

  23. Added consensus statement for 2 February 2022.

  24. Added consensus statement for 26 January 2022.

  25. Added consensus statement for 19 January 2022.

  26. Added consensus statement for 12 January 2022.

  27. Added consensus statement for 6 January 2022.

  28. Added latest consensus statement for 22 December 2021.

  29. Added latest consensus statement for 15 December 2021.

  30. Added latest consensus statement for 8 December 2021.

  31. Added latest consensus statement for 1 December 2021.

  32. Added latest consensus statement for 24 November 2021.

  33. Added latest consensus statement for 17 November 2021.

  34. Added latest consensus statement for 10 November 2021.

  35. Added latest consensus statement for 3 November 2021.

  36. Added latest consensus statement for 27 October 2021.

  37. Added latest consensus statement for 20 October 2021.

  38. Added latest consensus statement for 13 October 2021.

  39. Added latest consensus statement for 6 October 2021.

  40. Added consensus statement for 29 September 2021.

  41. Added consensus statement for 22 September 2021.

  42. Added consensus statement for 15 September 2021.

  43. Added consensus statement for 8 September 2021.

  44. Added consensus statement for 1 September 2021.

  45. Added consensus statement for 25 August 2021.

  46. Added consensus statement for 18 August 2021.

  47. Added consensus statement for 11 August 2021.

  48. Added consensus statement for 4 August 2021.

  49. First published.