EMRG medium-term projections for COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths: 21 December 2022
Updated 6 January 2023
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The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) Epidemiology Modelling Review Group (EMRG) shares these medium-term projections (MTPs) for coronavirus (COVID-19) hospitalisations and deaths with thanks to SPI-M-O, who contribute model outputs for the combined projections (not all modelling groups produce projections for both hospitalisations and deaths).
Medium-term projections
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These medium-term projections (MTPs) for COVID-19 hospitalisations ± and deaths ¥ are not forecasts or predictions. They represent a scenario in which the trajectory of the epidemic continues to follow the trends that were seen in data available to 15 December 2022.
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Several modelling groups produce their own set of projections. These individual projections are then combined to form consensus MTPs. MTPs are provided for England, Wales and Scotland for hospital admissions (Figure 1), as well as English regional hospital admissions (Figure 2). Due to an insufficient number of models being available, it has not been possible to produce any projections for deaths, nor for Northern Ireland hospitalisations.
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The delay between infection, developing symptoms, the need for hospital care, and death means the MTPs cannot fully reflect the impact of policy and behavioural changes made in the 2 to 3 weeks prior to 15 December 2022. An assumed effect of school holidays has been included.
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Modelling groups have used their expert judgement and evidence from UKHSA and other published studies when making assumptions about vaccine effectiveness.
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Projections do not include the potential effects of any novel variants. The delay between infection, developing symptoms, the need for hospital care, and death means it is unlikely that a novel variant will significantly alter the trajectories of hospitalisations and deaths in the timescales covered by these projections.
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On this occasion, medium term projections are provided for a period of 6 weeks after 21 December 2022. It should be noted that the projections become increasingly uncertain over this time-period, with uncertainty increasing with the length of the projections.
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Following a detailed review, this publication of the ‘EMRG medium-term projections (MTP) for COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths’ on 6 January 2023 will be the last. COVID-19 incidence data will continue to be accessible from the ONS coronavirus (COVID-19) infection survey. All UKHSA data publications will be kept under constant review. For feedback email emrg@ukhsa.gov.uk
± These are new hospitalisations per day which incorporates both the number of individuals admitted with COVID-19, as well as inpatients newly diagnosed with COVID-19. Data definitions differ slightly across all 4 nations.
¥ These are the number of new deaths per day (by date of death) that are within 28 days of being identified as a COVID-19 case. Data definitions differ slightly across all 4 nations.
Acknowledgements
UKHSA thanks SPI-M-O and academic partners for providing model outputs for these projections. UKHSA also acknowledges the work developing combination estimates from Defence and Science Technology Laboratory and the support and collaboration of the SPI-M-O Secretariat and co-Chairs, as well as colleagues across the 4 nations.
Key
This key applies to all of the following fan charts.
All fan charts show the 90% credible interval (lighter shading) and interquartile range (darker shading) of the combined projections based on current trends. Note axes scales differ for figures.
England
Figure 1a. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the UK nations based on data available on 15 December 2022
View key.
Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. Taken from NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.
Wales
Figure 1b. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the UK nations based on data available on 15 December 2022
View key.
Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 by admission date and inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 by test authorisation date. Provided by Public Health Wales.
Scotland
Figure 1c. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the UK nations based on data available on 15 December 2022
View key.
Number of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 in the 14 days prior to admission, on the day of admission, or during their stay in hospital. Readmissions within 14 days of a positive test are excluded. Provided by Public Health Scotland.
London
Figure 2a. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 15 December 2022
View key.
Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.
East of England
Figure 2b. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 15 December 2022
View key.
Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.
Midlands
Figure 2c. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 15 December 2022
View key.
Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.
North East and Yorkshire
Figure 2d. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 15 December 2022
View key.
Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.
North West
Figure 2e. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 15 December 2022
View key.
Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.
South East
Figure 2f. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 15 December 2022
View key.
Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.
South West
Figure 2g. Modelled projections of new hospital admissions per day in the NHS England regions based on data available on 15 December 2022
View key.
Number of patients admitted with confirmed COVID-19 and the number of inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 24 hours. The past data is taken from the NHS England COVID-19 situation reports.