Corporate report

Business critical models for Department of Health and Social Care and its arm’s length bodies

Updated 26 March 2026

A list of all business critical models held within the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) and its arm’s length bodies (ALBs) and executive agencies as at December 2025.

DHSC

Adult social care demand and funding projection models

A suite of models is used to project user numbers and expenditure for adult social care over both the short, medium and longer term.

A shorter-term model is used to estimate the total expenditure necessary to maintain the existing publicly funded adult social care system given demographic and unit cost pressures over the time frame of a spending review period.

Over longer time periods than a spending review, expenditure projections for adult social care are estimated using a long-term demand model, which is consistent with the shorter-term modelling.

To produce these expenditure projections, both of these models make use of externally commissioned projections of adult social care demand (in particular, user numbers) from the Care Policy and Evaluation Centre at the London School of Economics.

Adult social care technical efficiency model 

The adult social care technical efficiency model identifies similar areas (or ‘statistical neighbours’) for adult social care delivery, and provides a basis for exploring national-level variation in adult social care spending and outcomes.

Average cost model (reciprocal healthcare)

This model estimates the average annual cost of healthcare in the UK for different age groups. Calculations are based on expenditure and population data for each UK nation, adjusted for age groups using age-cost curves. The inputs to the model are updated annually and the new results are submitted to the EU each year to inform charging under reciprocal healthcare arrangements.

Calorie model

This is a simulation model used to model the long-term impacts of policies that affect calorie intake at a population level. It uses estimates of change in calorie intake, along with other assumptions, to estimate the effect on obesity-related health outcomes, NHS treatment costs, social care costs and changes in economic output.

Clinical negligence reform modelling

This models the costs of clinical negligence over the next 70 years under the current system, as well as under various changes to the system to consider the impact of policy changes.

Community Pharmacy Contractual Framework fees model

Model to estimate annual spend on remuneration fees made to community pharmacies in England as part of the Community Pharmacy Contractual Framework.

Comprehensive investment appraisal model

It provides the basis on which a decision is made to invest in a proposed development and to select the option that provides the best value for money to the public sector. The model appraises shortlisted options for capital investment by calculating the economic benefits, costs and risks of a range of shortlisted options.

CVDPREVENT model

CVDPREVENT data supports the delivery of the CVDPREVENT audit, which aims to use monitoring to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention and treatment of CVD and high-risk conditions in primary care. The data is used to generate indicators of prevalence, treatment and outcomes, broken down by health geographies and health inequalities.

DHSC finance model

This model estimates the total future revenue spending pressure on the departmental Group (DHSC and the NHS) by considering unit price and volume pressures across all departmental spending.

Drug Tariff category A model

This model uses supplier sales data to calculate the prices at which the NHS will normally reimburse primary care providers for specific medicines that they buy and dispense to fulfil prescriptions. The model covers medicines that are listed in category A of part VIIIA of the NHS Drug Tariff, which are available as generic products and are either:

• dispensed in relatively low volumes
• available from only one manufacturer

The products and prices are usually updated every calendar quarter, with occasional monthly updates to individual products.

Drug Tariff category M model

This model uses supplier sales data to calculate the prices at which the NHS will normally reimburse primary care providers for specific medicines that they buy and dispense to fulfil prescriptions.

The model covers medicines that are listed in category M of part VIIIA of the NHS Drug Tariff, which are available as generic products from more than one manufacturer and are dispensed in relatively high volumes.

The products and prices are usually updated every calendar quarter, with occasional monthly updates to individual products.

Drug Tariff category 8B specials model

This model uses supplier sales data to calculate the prices at which the NHS will normally reimburse primary care providers for specific medicines that they buy and dispense to fulfil prescriptions.

The model covers medicines that are listed in part VIIIB of the NHS Drug Tariff, which are unlicensed products that can be prescribed for individual patient needs and are usually creams or liquids.

The products and prices are usually updated every calendar quarter, with occasional monthly updates to individual products.

Drug Tariff category 8D specials model

This model uses supplier sales data to calculate the prices at which the NHS will normally reimburse primary care providers for specific medicines that they buy and dispense to fulfil prescriptions.

The model covers medicines that are listed in part VIIID of the NHS Drug Tariff, which are unlicensed products that can be prescribed for individual patient needs and are usually tablets or capsules.

The products and prices are usually updated every calendar quarter, with occasional monthly updates to individual products.

Drug Tariff part IX post-categorisation impact analysis model

This model predicts spend change as a result of implementing changes to part IX of the NHS Drug Tariff.

Ethnicity assignment model

The ethnicity assignment model generates the most frequent ethnic code recorded for each individual within Hospital Episode Statistics, based on multiple criteria. It allows us to estimate the ethnicity for individuals when multiple ethnicities are recorded in the data.

Excess mortality model

This model estimates the expected number of deaths that are registered each month for multiple population subgroups (all persons, English regions, by age group, by sex, by deprivation quintile, by cause of death and by place of death). It then compares the observed count of registered deaths with those expected deaths to quantify the excess deaths for that period.

Fixed recoverable costs modelling

This models the costs of the fixed recoverable costs scheme over the next 20 years. The scheme caps claimants’ lawyers’ fees for successful low-value claims.

General practice long run workforce model

Model to project the number of doctors in general practice in England.

Human resources analytics dashboards

A suite of Power BI dashboards (some of which are under construction) showing workforce size and shape, diversity and inclusion, sickness and absence, and related workforce metrics. All data presented is aggregated for anonymity and General Data Protection Regulation compliance.

Immigration health surcharge (IHS) fee calculation model

Calculates the average cost of healthcare services available to IHS payers - to determine the annual fee that those within scope of the IHS will be required to pay.

Infected blood support payments costing

This model is used to estimate DHSC’s liability for payments under the England Infected Blood Support Scheme (EIBSS) and for future UK-wide interim compensation payments (paid to infected individuals and bereaved partners eligible for support payments). This is done by estimating the number of infected beneficiaries and their bereaved partners who may be entitled to financial support.

The model now only estimates DHSC’s liability for financial year 2026 to 2027 as the Infected Blood Compensation Authority will take over the liability from 2027 to 2028.

Medical and non-medical education and training cost model suite

A collection of models that estimate outlay costs associated with the number of medical and non-medical students entering training.

Medicines expenditure forecast model and voluntary scheme for branded medicines pricing, access and growth (VPAG) operational model

These models consist of:

• a forecast model of future drug spend in England based on typical life cycles of expenditure
• a model that supports the voluntary scheme through calculation of sales growth rates and payment percentages

The medicine spend forecast model is updated annually and the VPAG operational model is updated quarterly.

Medicine margin survey

This model estimates the retained medicine margin made by community pharmacies in England. Data from a survey of community pharmacies informs the model, which estimate the medicine margin from the NHS Drug Tariff prices.

National Living Wage pay model

This model estimates the cost to the state of uplifting the National Living Wage in adult social care over a spending review period. It does this using Low Pay Commission projections for the National Living Wage, applied to Skills for Care data on the wage distribution within adult social care.

Pay negotiation and pay strategy modelling suite

Suite of models to:

• estimate the breakdown of historical pay bill by staff group and cost stream
• quantify historical pay bill drivers (such as pay drift and its components)
• link with workforce planning models to forecast future pay bill
• cost-specific proposed pay reforms using off-shoot models (for example, junior doctor contract review and review of consultant doctor reward package)
• inform further modelling by the NHS Pensions Authority and Government Actuary’s Department on the NHS Pension Scheme
• inform internal briefing around internal pay bill and workforce forecasting
• support consideration of pay reform

Prescribing profile model

This model uses historic data and policy information to forecast the proportion of spend in each month of the forthcoming financial year on prescriptions.

Prescription charge uplift model

Prescription charges are normally reviewed annually to inform decisions on whether they should be frozen, uplifted in line with inflation, or changed in some other way. This model focuses specifically on the total amount of revenue raised from charges to support the NHS.

It draws on existing revenue figures and trends in the number of prescriptions issued, and models a range of uplift options. The model looks only at revenue raised if rates are changed: it does not consider potential wider reform to who pays charges. That sort of analysis, if and when required, would be completed separately.

The model considers prescription charges in England (they are not charged elsewhere in the UK). Dental and optician charges are out of scope.

Public health grant (PHG) demand model

Models the required level of funding needed to maintain PHG service provision at current levels. This considers wage, inflation, demand and policy pressures.

PHG return on investment (RoI) model

Estimates the RoI of marginal changes to the PHG budget and allows users to model different funding scenarios to estimate the health and financial impacts of changes to the PHG funding level.

Public Health Outcomes Framework

The Public Health Outcomes Framework presents indicator trends and benchmarks to enable assessment of outcome measures at upper-tier and lower-tier local authority level.

Smoke-free generation Markov model

Model used to estimate the impact of the smoke-free generation policy on smoking prevalence, and the consequent long-term impact on smoking-related diseases, costs and mortality. The core of the model is based on transition probabilities from the University of Sheffield’s tobacco model.

Social care allocations - adult social care relative needs formula model

This model aims to estimate the relative needs for local authority-supported adult social care and is used to distribute adult social care funding. The model includes variables that are comparable between local authorities and proxies local authority-supported eligibility factors that are legitimately outside of local authorities control, including:

• population
• impairment levels
• income and wealth
• unpaid care support
• area cost

The models used by all ALBs and executive agencies are listed in the following sections below.

Care Quality Commission

Fees model

Models for each sector regulated by the Care Quality Commission (CQC) to calculate appropriate regulatory fees based on the costs of regulation in that sector.

Indicators for evidence

A suite of indicators that measure aspects of quality of care for CQC-regulated health and adult social care services. These indicators:

• use data from a wide range of national data collections, including nationally agreed measures of quality
• are mapped to the assessment framework CQC uses to carry out assessments and ratings of services

The results of the indicators are considered alongside other relevant evidence to inform judgements.

Risk categorisation model

A risk categorisation is used to inform the order in which assessment activity across registered health and adult social care services is carried out. Each service is assigned one of 3 categories. The categories are driven by a rules set and, where they are in place, any risk scores from a list of service-specific risk models.

Risk model: adult social care services

Models to support prioritisation of services most at risk of providing poor quality of care. The adult social care risk model combines results from a set of indicators relevant to these services to create a risk score. The risk score is used to calculate an overall risk category for each service. The model covers residential and community adult social care services.

Risk model: general practice

Models to support prioritisation of services most at risk of providing poor quality of care. The GP risk model combines results from a set of indicators relevant to these services to create a risk score. The risk score is used to calculate an overall risk category for each service.

Risk model: independent health services

Models to support prioritisation of services most at risk of providing poor quality of care. The independent health risk model combines results from a set of indicators relevant to these services to create a risk score. The risk score is used to calculate an overall risk category for each service. The risk model covers a wide range of services, across diverse settings (such as hospital, clinics, diagnosis services, dialysis units and so on).

Risk model: urgent and emergency care

Models to support prioritisation of services most at risk of providing poor quality of care. The NHS urgent and emergency risk model combines results from a set of indicators relevant to these units to create a risk score. The risk score is used to calculate an overall risk category for each service.

Human Tissue Authority

Licence fee model

This model is used to calculate the annual fees of licensed establishments regulated by the Human Tissue Authority by allocating forecast Human Tissue Authority organisational costs against expected regulatory activity for different establishments and sectors.

Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency

Safety, quality and efficacy assessment model

This model is made up of national legislation, guidance and appropriate international standards. It’s within numerous disciplines (pre-clinical, clinical, pharmacological quality, toxicological, clinical pharmacological and statistical). It assesses applications for individual products to assess the:

• quality, safety and efficacy of the product
• ability for it to be manufactured, supplied appropriately and monitored in use

On the basis of this analysis, a marketing authorisation decision will be made to approve or refuse the medicine to be placed on the market in the UK.

Safety signals detection analytical models

These models are used to conduct statistical analysis of adverse incidents to medicines, vaccines and device reports. They aim to identify possible safety signals for more in depth clinical and non-clinical assessment, potentially leading to a full safety review.

National Institute for Health and Care Excellence

Guideline models

National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline models are used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of various interventions (including treatment, care, testing and follow-up) across clinical, public health and social care settings. The models are used to support recommendations for affordable best practice within the NHS and personal social services, and sometimes the wider public sector.

The models use cost-utility analysis, with benefits measured using QALYs, and allow probabilistic analyses. External academic or commercial models may sometimes be used if relevant to the decision.

The numbers of models developed by the programme vary by year but, for 2025 to 2026, an approximate estimate is 15 models.

HealthTech guidance models

The NICE National HealthTech Access Programme produces guidance on interventional procedures, diagnostics, devices and digital health technologies. HealthTech guidance models are used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of technologies and are used to support recommendations for the use of the technologies within the NHS and personal social services.

The models use cost-utility analysis, with benefits measured using QALYs, and allow probabilistic analyses. Cost-comparison models may also be used, which undertake analysis of the costs and resource use associated with the health technology compared with that of the comparators.

The numbers of models considered by the programme vary by year, but for 2025 to 2026 an approximate estimate is 20 models.

Medicines guidance models

NICE guidance on medicines is developed through the technology appraisals and the highly specialised technologies programmes. Models are used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of medicines (and sometimes other health technologies) and are used to support recommendations for the use and funding of the medicines within the NHS and personal social services in England. The models are predominately developed externally by the medicine technology manufacturers, health economic consultancies or academic assessment groups.

The models use cost-utility analysis, with benefits measured using QALYs, and allow probabilistic analyses. Cost-comparison models may also be used, which analyse the costs and resource use associated with the health technology compared with that of the comparators for circumstances when it is reasonable to assume equivalency of health outcomes.

The number of models used within the programmes varies each year, but an approximate estimate for 2025 to 2026 is 80 to 85 models.

NHS Blood and Transplant

Blood demand forecast model

A statistical model is used to forecast demand for blood components over a period of zero to 5 years, using historic demand trends overlaid with other sources of insight such as population and demographic data.

Blood supply and stock forecasting model

Factors such as booked blood donor appointments and forecast attendance rates are used to forecast expected blood collection levels, which, when combined with anticipated demand and wastage, can be used to produce blood stock forecasts.

Blood pack type selection model

Using inputs of booked donation appointments (by blood group and gender) and anticipated product demand or stocks, the optimal pack type that each unit of blood should be collected into is derived. This is important because some blood products can only be manufactured from certain pack types.

Blood platelet stock management algorithm

A tool that makes platelet product inter-site distribution decisions based on product availability, current local stocks at 14 distribution centres and anticipated demand. It also factors in product characteristics and shelf life.

Organ allocation algorithms

Statistical models are used in the development of organ allocation algorithms for the UK. These models identify and evaluate factors associated with waiting times to transplant and post-transplant outcomes. In turn, they inform algorithms designed to appropriately match and prioritise patients on national waiting lists for organ transplantation.

NHS Business Services Authority

EIBSS forecasting

Forecasts the annual number of scheme applications, and their related payment value for the EIBSS. This informs the NHS Business Services Authority’s (NHSBSA) annual EIBSS payment budget for the service, set by DHSC.

Forecast out-turn prescribing monitoring document

The forecast outturn is a profile to help forecast the primary care prescribing spend for each practice for the financial year. The profile is calculated using the previous 5 years of data for England. The forecast outturn is provided by DHSC at the beginning of each financial year. 

The forecast outturn is used by NHSBSA in the prescribing monitoring document that is accessible by GP practices in ePACT2 (an electronic prescribing analysis and cost tool). Alternatively, the forecast template can be used by GP practices locally to reflect any local initiatives or adjustments.

Healthy Start forecasting model

Forecasts of the number of Healthy Start cards, beneficiaries, top-ups and spend. This helps to inform the card funding annual budget for DHSC. Operational forecasting and spend analysis is conducted. Drawdown requests are made against the budget and the DHSC portal is used for funding requests.

Nursery Milk Scheme forecasting

Forecasts the number of milk and formula portion claims submitted by local authorities, childcare settings and agents, as well as the average cost per portion. This informs the reimbursement costs for the Nursery Milk Scheme. Forecasts are updated quarterly or as needed in response to any anticipated changes in milk or formula prices, as agreed upon with suppliers.

Student services forecasting model

Forecasts the expenditure for NHSBSA student services comprising the NHS Learning Support Fund, NHS Bursary and Social Work Bursary. This helps to inform the annual budget for the service to pay students and health education institutions, which is set by DHSC.

Vaccine damage payment forecasting model

A model forecasting:

• the number of future claims
• the cost of medical assessments
• NHSBSA administration costs
• potential payments to successful claimants
• administration payments to healthcare providers

This helps to inform the annual budget for the service, which is set by DHSC. Further monthly operational forecasting takes place, which is reviewed monthly between DHSC and NHSBSA to monitor spend.

NHS England

Accident and emergency (A&E) admissions forecasting tool

The tool aims to provide forecasts of admissions from A&E at the trust level, one to 3 weeks ahead. This can be aggregated up to integrated care board (ICB), regional and national levels.

A&E performance model 

A model designed to predict A&E 4-hour performance.

Allocations model

The allocations model is used to determine the ‘fair shares’ allocation for commissioners (integrated care systems (ICSs)). The formulae are derived, in the most part, through patient-level regression models.

Ambulance response model    

Model to understand ambulance resource requirements and forecast response times.

Cancer diagnostic and treatment demand model

Projections for demand for cancer diagnostic services by testing modality and treatment demand by modality based on Cancer Research UK incidence projections and referral projections from the referral growth model.

Cancer diagnostic demand model

This model calculates the ‘diagnostic test gap’ for cancer diagnostic services under different investment scenarios (for example, ‘fixed share’ vs ‘growing share’) to support diagnostic capacity planning and assess impact on progress towards achieving cancer wait times targets.

Cardiovascular disease - respiratory long-term plan commitments modelling

Modelling of potential benefits - in heart attacks and strokes avoided, lives saved and admissions reduced - from various prevention, rehabilitation and other initiatives.

Core 10 Year Workforce Plan model (formally the Long Term Workforce Plan 2 model)

The 10 Year Workforce Plan model is built on the Long Term Workforce Plan model and has undergone significant improvements and developments over the past 1.5 years. This model:

• projects both workforce demand and supply over 10 years
• includes policy interventions designed to implement 10 Year Health Plan commitments and other policy improvements
• helps narrow the gap between demand and supply

COVID-19 expected vaccinations model

The COVID-19 expected vaccinations model estimates the weekly expected number of vaccinations for each cohort by comparing demand, capacity and supply.

Diagnostics demand and capacity model

This model establishes the diagnostic capacity required to meet demand between 2025 to 2026 and 2029 to 2030 for specific core diagnostic modalities.

Economic analysis of community pharmacy

In 2022, as a part of the final negotiated Community Pharmacy Contractual Framework (years 4 to 5) deal, NHS England committed to:

commission an economic analysis of NHS pharmaceutical services through an independent review, using data provided by contractors, and [to] work with the Pharmaceutical Services Negotiating Committee on the review.

In 2024, Frontier Economics Limited (Frontier) and IQVIA were commissioned to deliver this study.

Elective activity and waiting list projections model

This model uses projections of national elective activity, referral to treatment (RTT) pathways and demand scenarios to project the RTT waiting list.

Elective payments model (also known as the elective recovery fund)

This model calculates financial rewards to systems (sustainability and transformation partnership and ICSs) based on whether they have achieved expected levels of elective care activity.

Greener NHS carbon footprint model

The greener NHS carbon footprint model produces estimates of the total NHS carbon footprint and carbon footprint plus as defined in the Delivering a net zero NHS report.

High-level allocations model

The model is used to set high-level allocations, the total quantum of funding available for each of the different commissioning streams. The modelling is often used as part of spending review negotiations to set out the total quantum of funding required.

High-level electronic staff record flow tool (HEFT)

HEFT enables analysis on electronic staff record (ESR) data for any definition of workforce, including:

• demographics
• joiner or leaver analysis
• dashboard data set creation
• projections

Enhancements are made to ESR data such as geographic code, nationality and newly qualified joiners through referencing registration data. The data is then mapped using multivariable mapping based on geo code, occupation code, status, job role and tertiary area of work, and any combination of these. Flow analysis is then performed on a year-by-year or month-by-month basis. Projections and other analysis are then produced based on the flow analysis.

Hospital demand forecasting tool

A Monte Carlo-based simulation of demand in acute hospitals, using baseline Hospital Episode Statistics data and a number of change factors (including demographic growth, non-demographic growth, a set of consistently-defined types of potentially mitigable activity and others) to project demand for hospital care into the future.

Hybrid closed loop (HCL) financial impact analysis model

Models the financial impact of HCL adoption across England, allowing for 3 possible delivery scenarios.

ICB contracts analysis model

Model to estimate value of ICBs to provider financial flows from Hospital Episode Statistics activity data as compared with planned total contract values.

This model was used to provide supporting information to regions and systems for the 2025 to 2026 NHS Payment Scheme and fed into the design of the 2026 to 2027 deconstructing block contracts exercise.

Integrated urgent care workforce requirements tool

A tool to assist systems in estimating workforce requirements for NHS 111 call-handling and Pathways clinical advisers ahead of a new financial year.

Market forces factor model 2025 to 2026 and 2026 to 2027

The market force factor is a measure of unavoidable cost differences between healthcare providers, and a means of offsetting the financial implications of these cost differences. Each NHS provider is assigned an individual market force factor value, which is used to adjust national prices and/or unit prices for the services trusts provide. As well as being part of the NHS Payment Scheme (formerly known as the National Tariff), it is also used to adjust allocations.

Maternity Outcomes Signal System

The Maternity Outcomes Signal System (MOSS) is a near-real-time safety signal system that supports early detection and rapid responses to potential safety issues in intrapartum care service delivery.

Medicines spend forecast

Forecast of spend on medicines by NHS in England.

Medium-term activity projections model

This model provides a set of medium-term activity projections, with a consistent method, for most hospital-based activity and primary care prescribing. It has projections for:

• contacts (such as spells)
• bed days (where relevant)
• price-weighted contacts (capturing treatment and/or  complexity changes)

Projections are built from demographic effects (changes in the population size and structure) and historic trends.

Outpatient transformation model

Projection of outpatient activity demand and the potential opportunity through various transformation interventions to reduce future demand.

Referral growth model

Projections for urgent suspected cancer referrals by cancer type.

RTT demand scenario model  

Scenario model that projects RTT clock starts.

Tariff production models

This is a suite of models with the function of developing prices to inform or for use in funding non-primary health care delivery. The models are used to set prices and analyse the impact of NHS Payment Scheme policies and proposals on providers and commissioners.

NHS Resolution

Actual and forecast expenditure files

Used for reporting of scheme expenditure. The files are used for in-month and month-end reporting and forecasting of clinical negligence and non-clinical schemes expenditure.

The expenditure includes damages (this is the biggest element), claimant and defence costs payments. Most are in relation to:

• claims settled in the form of lump sums (non-period payment orders)
• structured payments issued by courts in the form of periodic payment orders

Cashflow projection models

Range of models and sub-models to derive future-year cashflow projections for each scheme.

Combined provision file

Combines provisions from the settled PPO model and the open book model.

Contribution setting models

Three main models and range of sub-models to calculate member-level contributions.

Incurred but not reported models

Over 100 models and sub-models to calculate provisions for incurred but not reported claims by agreed claims segmentation.

Known claims models

Ten models (one for each scheme) that calculate known claims provisions.

Maternity Incentive Scheme model

The Maternity Incentive Scheme (MIS) model contains payment history for years one to 6, which relate to payments disseminated to and any repayments due back from NHS trusts under the MIS.

Ogden model

Calculates reserve for reported potential high-value claims (period payment orders (PPOs)).

Open book model

Calculates provision for known claims and known incidents. The model will replace 10 known claims models in 2026 to 2027.

Settled PPO model

Calculates provision for settled PPOs.

Settled PPO recalculation model

Calculates payments for settled PPOs.

Trust reporting files

Calculates provisions to be held by NHS trusts.

UK Health Security Agency

Avian influenza susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR) model

This model uses a SEIR structure to estimate the number of avian influenza:

• infections
• hospitalisations
• intensive care unit admissions
• deaths

in England under different disease scenarios and vaccination strategies.

Carbapenemase-producing enterobacterales hospital transmission individual-based model

Individual-based model of carbapenemase-producing enterobacterales transmission within an acute NHS hospital trust.

COVID_Hosp_IBM model

Individual-based model of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) transmission between staff and patients in English hospitals.

COVID-19 vaccine contingent liability model

This model estimates the maximum potential liability that may be incurred through the administration of COVID-19 vaccines.

COVID-19 vaccine provision model

This model estimates the cost of the provision following the administration of the COVID-19 vaccine.

COVID-19 Vaccine Unit inventory forecasting model (scenario modelling tool)

Models demand and supply to understand inventory, expiry and unmet demand for the COVID-19 vaccine.

Dose estimate

Software for estimation of external ionising radiation dose and circumstances of exposure, based on International Organization for Standardization standard methods using chromosome aberrations in blood.

Elderly pneumococcal model

Markov model that evaluates the impact and cost-effectiveness of different immunisation strategies against pneumococcal disease in the elderly.

Flu evidence synthesis model

Used to model the cost-effectiveness of influenza (flu) vaccination. This consists of a susceptible, exposed, exposed, infected, infected, recovered (SEEIIR) ordinary differential equations (ODE) model. It also contains components to model the potential impact of updated vaccine programmes, including calculating the averted burden and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) as a result of implemented vaccine programmes.

General Register Office (GRO) daily deaths model

This is an all-cause mortality model for England. It produces a daily calculation using the date of death, with a baseline estimate based on the past 5 years. This model can help determine likely excess deaths due to factors such as COVID-19, influenza, heatwaves and cold snaps. This model uses data from GRO.

Heart mortality model

Model of historic-lagged temperature-mortality relationships in summers in England.

Hepatitis C virus burden model

Estimation of hepatitis C virus prevalence, burden and treatment impact using multiple sources of data within a Bayesian model.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) back-calculation model

Estimation of HIV incidence on the basis of new HIV diagnosis data and CD4 counts at diagnosis, using a Bayesian back-calculation model.

HIV multi-parameter evidence synthesis model

Estimation of HIV prevalence based on multiple sources of data, using a Bayesian evidence synthesis model.

Hospital network and sentinel prioritisation model

England acute hospital network analysis and stochastic simulations of inter-hospital pathogen spread.

Hyades model

Internal radiation dose estimates for clinical trials with radio-labelled compounds.

Imported tuberculosis (TB) emergence model

A prediction model for expected immigrated tTB case numbers at varied time since entry.

Individual-based disease environment model

An agent-based modelling framework for tracking the spread of infectious disease. It has been applied in closed community settings - such as schools, care homes and prisons - and has been used to assess the effectiveness of interventions, and for parameter estimation.

Integrated Modules for Bioassay Analysis (IMBA) suite

Internal radiation dose assessment software.

Joint Agency Modelling

Joint Agency Modelling is a multi-agency tool and supporting process. It enables rapid assessment of the impacts of atmospheric releases during radiation emergencies, based on an estimate of the radioactive material that has (or could be) released. It aims to support strategic decision-making in central government.

June model

Agent-based model for fine-grained epidemic simulation.

Mass assessment suite of codes

A suite of codes based on IMBA and Taurus that can perform automated internal radiation dose assessments for large groups of individuals.

Measles risk model

Mathematical model of measles in England regions that estimates effective reproduction numbers in each region to investigate potential outbreaks of measles.

Mpox transmission and vaccination model

This model consists of 2 parts:

• the first includes transmission dynamics (calibrated to outbreak data and to evaluate the impact of different control measures)
• the second investigates the cost-effectiveness of different vaccination strategies

Pandemic influenza SEEIIR model

This model uses a SEEIIR dynamic transmission model to estimate the disease burden under different pandemic influenza scenarios, including:

• non-pharmaceutical interventions
• roll out of a pandemic specific vaccine
• use of an antiviral or antibiotic stockpile

Pay model suite

Suite of models used for internal pay and HR assessments and cost impacts.

Personal computer - consequences of releases to the environment assessment methodology (PC-CREAM)

PC-CREAM is a model used to assess the radiological impacts of planned discharges of radioactive material to the atmosphere or to water bodies.

Pertussis model

Deterministic model of pertussis transmission dynamics and cost-effectiveness model of maternal pertussis vaccination programme in England, which is used to investigate pertussis outbreaks in England.

Pneumococcal model

Deterministic and individual-based models, and cost-effectiveness models of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination programmes in England.

Python generic ODE modelling (PyGOM) framework

PyGOM is a framework for production of ODE-based compartmental models and has been used for work on enclosed populations (including cruise ships and prisons), the UK population-wide model and repatriations.

Real-time transmission model for pandemic respiratory pathogens

SEIR-based transmission modelling framework using multiple sources that can include prevalence data (both serological and virological) as well as time series data on infection sequelae (such as symptom onset, hospitalisation or death statistics). The model can be very flexibly parameterised to account for the specific characteristics of the pathogen under consideration and the data available.

ReverseEpi model

This model locates the source of high-impact biological agents based on cases admitted to hospital.

Smallpox vaccination model

Stochastic compartmental metapopulation model describing smallpox spread in the UK, with vaccination, contact tracing and case isolation.

SynthesisCOVID model

Estimates the changes in transmissibility and severity of COVID-19 in UK and vaccine efficacy by fitting a SEEIIR compartmental transmission model to the data of confirmed cases, deaths and recovery.

During the pandemic, the model was calibrated with available data and was used to predict a 2-week moving window.

SynthesisFlu model

Estimates the changes in transmissibility and severity of flu in the UK by fitting a SEEIIR compartmental transmission model to the data of confirmed cases, hospitalisations, and intensive care units.

During the winter pressures season, the model was calibrated with available data and used to predict a 2-week moving window.

TARGET-ID blood-borne viruses machine learning models

Set of machine learning algorithms to predict people at risk of blood-borne viruses (such as HIV, and hepatitis B and C).

Taurus software

Internal radiation dose assessment software (which implements the International Commission on Radiological Protection 2007 recommendations).

West Nile Virus (WNV) extrinsic incubation model

A statistical model that quantifies how long it takes WNV to cause an infection in the mosquito Culex pipiens across a range of temperatures.