Business critical models for Department of Health and Social Care
A list of the main analytical models used by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) and its arm's length bodies and executive agencies.
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This publication lists the business critical models used by DHSC and its arm’s length bodies and executive agencies as at December 2025.
Business critical models are analytical models that:
- have a significant influence on financial and funding decisions
- are essential to delivering departmental objectives
- are essential where errors could cause serious financial, legal or reputational harm
This list of models is intended for analysts, analytical managers, commissioners and anyone with an interest in how DHSC uses analytical models to support decision-making. It supports transparency and encourages good practice in quality assurance.
The AQuA Book (updated 2025) provides government-wide guidance on producing robust, fit-for-purpose analysis. It covers quality assurance across the full analytical life cycle and includes guidance on publishing business critical models registers.
Publishing lists of business critical models was recommended by Sir Nicholas Macpherson’s 2013 review of the quality assurance of government analytical models. The 2022 National Audit Office report, Financial modelling in government, re-emphasised the importance of these lists.
Updates to this page
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The list of business critical models has been brought up to date for the year 2025 to 2026. Models have been updated for DHSC, UKHSA, NHS England and NHS Resolution.
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First published.