Open consultation

Consultation options assessment (accessible)

Published 4 December 2025

Applies to England and Wales

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Consultation Options Assessment

Title: Extension of Licensing Hours for the 2026 FIFA Men’s Football World Cup

Type of measure: Domestic

Department or agency: Home Office

OA number: COA 1029

Contact for enquiries: alcohollicensingconsultations@homeoffice.gov.uk

Date: 04/12/2025

1. Summary of proposal

1. The government is consulting on whether to extend licensing hours across licensed premises in England and Wales to mark the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup semi-finals and final, subject to the progression of any of the national teams of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, or Wales to these stages.

2. Section 172 of the Licensing Act 2003[footnote 1] (LA 2003) allows the Secretary of State for the Home Department (Home Secretary) to make a Licensing Hours Order (LHO) to allow premises to open for specified, extended hours to mark occasions of “exceptional international, national or local significance”. This power has been exercised in recent years to mark the Royal Weddings in 2011 and 2018, the Late Queen’s Diamond Jubilee, 90th Birthday celebrations, and Platinum Jubilee, His Majesty’s Coronation in 2023, the 80th Anniversary of VE Day celebrations and major football tournaments including the FIFA Men’s World Cup 2014, UEFA Men’s Euro Championship 2020 final in 2021, the semi-final and final of the UEFA Men’s Euro Championship 2024[footnote 2] and the semi-final and final of the UEFA Women’s Euro Championship 2025[footnote 3].

3. A LHO can be used to extend licensing hours in licensed premises in England and Wales during a period not exceeding four days, as per subsection (5)(a) of section 172 of LA 2003. A LHO may be applied to all licensed premises in England and Wales. It is a decision for individual premises as to whether they wish to extend their hours under an LHO. Other information specified in a LHO includes the dates, times and licensable activities to which it applies. A LHO can be used to extend licensing hours for any of, or all the licensable activities under the LA 2003. Only the hours of the sale and supply of alcohol (on the premises) are to be extended in this instance.

4. An extension of licensing hours would mean that premises already licensed to sell alcohol for consumption on the premises would be able to extend their opening hours (if they so wish to do so) up to 1am the morning following the semi-final(s) and final without the need for a Temporary Event Notice (TEN), subject to the progression of any of the national teams of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, or Wales to these stages, and the match having a kick-off time of 9pm or earlier.

2. Strategic case for proposed regulation

5. There is now a well-established precedent for extending licensing hours in England and Wales for the semi-finals and final of major football tournaments should one of the home nations reach these stages. The government considers the potential participation of the Home Nations’ national football teams in the semi-final(s) and final of 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup to be nationally significant events which many people would wish to celebrate should the teams reach these later stages of the tournament.

6. By making a LHO, burdens would be reduced for licensed premises as they would not need to apply for a TEN should they wish to stay open later until 1am in the event that one of the Home Nations’ national football teams reaches the semi-final(s) and final and there is a kick-off time of 9pm or earlier. The administrative burden on licensing authorities (LAs) would also be reduced due to the decreased number of TENs that they must then process.

3. SMART objectives for intervention

7. The purpose of the LHO would be to enable communities to come together to celebrate this achievement and support their national team, while reducing burdens for businesses and LAs.

8. Many premises are expected to wish to extend their licensing hours for late-stage football matches (notably the semi-final on 14 and/or 15 July 2026 and the final on 19 July 2026 should a home nations’ team participate in them. To do this, they would need to apply for a TEN.

9. A LHO removes the need for individual premises to apply for extensions, reducing burdens for businesses that wish to stay open until 1am by removing the need to fill out a TEN and pay the associated fee. Administrative burdens are also reduced for LAs due to the reduced number of TENS to process.

10. A LHO therefore aids in supporting the government’s Growth Mission[footnote 4], providing a welcome boost to the hospitality sector and helps enable communities to come together in celebration.

11. A LHO will specify the date and times that it will cover.

4. Description of proposed intervention options and explanation of the logical change process whereby this achieves SMART objectives

12. Three options have been considered:

  • Option 0: ‘Do nothing’. This would mean that on-trade licensed premises would have to apply for a TEN should they wish to extend their licensing hours for the final and/or semi-final(s) of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. One TEN can last for up to 7 days/168 hours.

  • Option 1: Extend permitted licensing hours to 1am the following morning and providing that the relevant matches kick-off no later than 9pm UK time during the semi-final(s) and final of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup (to be held on 14, 15 and 19 July 2026) for premises in England and Wales already licensed to sell alcohol for consumption on the premises (should they wish to do so). This is contingent on the progression of any of the national teams of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, or Wales to the semi-final(s) and/or final. This is so premises do not need to apply for a TEN.

  • Option 2: Extend permitted licensing hours to 1am the following morning and providing that the relevant matches kick-off no later than 9pm UK time during the final of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup (to be held on 19 July 2026) for premises in England and Wales already licensed to sell alcohol for consumption on the premises (should they wish to do so). This is contingent on progression of any of the national teams of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, or Wales to the final. This is so premises do not need to apply for a TEN.

13. The contingent extension of licensing hours would allow licensed premises an optional extension in the latest hour for the sale of alcohol for consumption on the premises (extending from 11pm until 1am the following morning) on the days of the semi-final(s) on 14 and/or 15 July 2026 and final on 19 July 2026, contingent on any of the national teams of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, or Wales playing in any of these matches, and providing that the kick-off is at 9pm or earlier. Under the LHO, those premises wishing to take part in these celebrations would automatically be able to extend their licensing hours without the need for a TEN to be applied for, reducing burdens for businesses and LAs. Premises wishing to stay open beyond 1am would still require a TEN to do so. The proposed interventions meet the SMART criteria.

5. Summary of long-list and alternatives

Option 0 ‘Do nothing’

14. This would mean that on-trade licensed premises would have to apply for a TEN should they wish to extend their licensing hours for the final and/or semi-final(s) of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. One TEN can last for up to 7 days/168 hours.

Option 1

15. Extend permitted licensing hours to 1am the following morning and providing that the relevant matches kick-off no later than 9pm UK time during the semi-final(s) and final of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup (to be held on 14, 15 and 19 July 2026) for premises in England and Wales already licensed to sell alcohol for consumption on the premises (should they wish to do so). This is contingent on the progression of any of the national teams of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, or Wales to the semi-final(s) and/or final. This is so premises do not need to apply for a TEN.

Option 2

16. Extend permitted licensing hours to 1am the following morning and providing that the relevant matches kick-off no later than 9pm UK time during the final of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup (to be held on 19 July 2026) for premises in England and Wales already licensed to sell alcohol for consumption on the premises (should they wish to do so). This is contingent on progression of any of the national teams of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, or Wales to the final. This is so premises do not need to apply for a TEN.

Option 3

17. Extend permitted licensing hours to 1am the following morning and providing that the relevant matches kick-off no later than 9pm UK time during the quarter-finals(s), semi-final(s) and final of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup (to be held on 9, 10, 11 14, 15 and 19 July 2026) for premises in England and Wales already licensed to sell alcohol for consumption on the premises (should they wish to do so). This is contingent on the progression of any of the national teams of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, or Wales to the quarter-final(s), semi-final(s) and/or final. This is so premises do not need to apply for a TEN.

This option was not shortlisted as it would be a departure from recent previous extensions.

Option 4

18. Extend permitted licensing hours (further, for example to 2am, 3am or 4am) the following morning and providing that the relevant matches kick-off no later than 9pm UK time during the semi-final(s) and final of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup (to be held on 14, 15 and 19 July 2026) for premises in England and Wales already licensed to sell alcohol for consumption on the premises (should they wish to do so). This is contingent on progression of any of the national teams of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, or Wales to the final. This is so premises do not need to apply for a TEN.

This option was not shortlisted as it would be a novel departure from previous extensions, would be likely to increase concerns about crime and disorder and public health and place an additional burden on police resources. On balance therefore this option was not carried forward.

6. Description of shortlisted policy options carried forward

Option 0: ‘Do nothing’

19. This would mean that on-trade licensed premises would have to apply for a TEN should they wish to extend their licensing hours for the final and/or semi-final(s) of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. One TEN can last for up to 7 days/168 hours.

Option 1

20. Extend permitted licensing hours to 1am the following morning and providing that the relevant matches kick-off no later than 9pm UK time during the semi-final(s) and final of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup (to be held on 14, 15 and 19 July 2026) for premises in England and Wales already licensed to sell alcohol for consumption on the premises (should they wish to do so). This is contingent on the progression of any of the national teams of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, or Wales to the semi-final(s) and/or final. This is so premises do not need to apply for a TEN.

Option 2

21. Extend permitted licensing hours to 1am the following morning and providing that the relevant matches kick-off no later than 9pm UK time during the final of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup (to be held on 19 July 2026) for premises in England and Wales already licensed to sell alcohol for consumption on the premises (should they wish to do so). This is contingent on progression of any of the national teams of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, or Wales to the final. This is so premises do not need to apply for a TEN.

7. Monitoring and evaluation

22. As this is a temporary change of licensing hours contingent on the performance of any of the national teams of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, or Wales at the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup tournament, it will not be formally monitored or evaluated, although it is expected that feedback on any impact to services or businesses will be gathered from LAs and the police. This will provide further evidence regarding LHOs for future implementation.

8. Minimising administrative and compliance costs

23. A LHO removes the need for individual premises to apply for extensions, reducing administrative burdens for businesses that wish to stay open until 1am by removing the need to fill out a TEN and pay the associated fee. There is also a reduction in administrative burdens for LAs, who in turn receive fewer TENs which they must then process.

Declaration

Department: Home Office

Contact details for enquiries: alcohollicensingconsultations@homeoffice.gov.uk

Minister responsible: Minister for Policing and Crime

I have read the Consultation Options Assessment and I am satisfied that, given the available evidence, it represents a reasonable view of the likely costs, benefits and impact of the leading options.

Signed:

Date: 4/12/25

Summary: Analysis and evidence

Price base year: 2026/27

PV base year: 2026/27

Net present social value (with brief description, including ranges, of individual costs and benefits)

Option 0: ‘Do nothing’

Options 1 and 2 are costed against Option 0.

Option 1: Extend permitted licensing hours to 1am the following morning during the semi-final(s) and final of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup

The NSPV of Option 1 is estimated to be between £0.82 million and £1.52 million, with a central estimate of £0.98 million.

The monetised costs to businesses are the familiarisation costs of the new legislation for licensed premises, estimated in the range of £600 to £24,500, with a central estimate of £6,500.

The monetised costs to the public are the loss of revenue for LAs from TEN fees, estimated in the range of £277,600 and £555,200, with a central estimate of £416,400.

The monetised benefits to businesses include:

  • The reduced costs from TEN fees for licensed premises, estimated in the range of £277,600 and £555,200, with a central estimate of £416,400.

  • The saved time for licensed premises, estimated in the range of £9,700 and £322,700, with a central estimate of £38,500.

The monetised benefits to the public include:

  • Reduced costs to LAs of processing TENs, estimated in the range of £277,600 and £694,100 with a central estimate of £416,400.

  • Reduced costs to police forces of reviewing TENs, estimated in the range of £16,000 and £530,000, with a central estimate of £63,200.

Option 2: Extend permitted licensing hours to 1am the following morning during the final of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup

The NSPV of Option 2 is estimated to be between £0.32 million and £0.76 million, with a central estimate of £0.42 million.

The monetised costs to businesses are the familiarisation costs of the new legislation for licensed premises, estimated in the range of £100 to £12,200, with a central estimate of £2,200.

The monetised costs to the public are the loss of revenue for LAs from TEN fees, estimated in the range of £52,600 and £277,600, with a central estimate of £143,600.

The monetised benefits to businesses include:

  • The reduced costs from TEN fees for licensed premises, estimated in the range of £52,600 and £277,600, with a central estimate of £143,600.

  • The saved time for licensed premises, estimated in the range of £1,800 and £161,400, with a central estimate of £13,300.

The monetised benefits to the public include:

  • Reduced costs to LAs of processing TENs, estimated in the range of £52,600 and £347,000 with a central estimate of £143,600.

  • Reduced costs to police forces of reviewing TENs, estimated in the range of £3,000 and £265,000, with a central estimate of £21,800.

Public sector financial costs (with brief description, including ranges)

Option 0: ‘Do nothing’

Options 1 and 2 are costed against Option 0.

Option 1: Extend permitted licensing hours to 1am the following morning during the semi-final(s) and final of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup

The monetised costs to the public are the loss of revenue for LAs from TEN fees, estimated in the range of £277,600 and £555,200, with a central estimate of £416,400.

Option 2: Extend permitted licensing hours to 1am the following morning during the final of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup

The monetised costs to the public are the loss of revenue for LAs from TEN fees, estimated in the range of £52,600 and £277,600, with a central estimate of £143,600.

Significant un-quantified benefits and costs (description, with scale where possible)

The significant un-quantified costs are increased health harms, which would impose costs on affected individuals and health services, and increased costs of alcohol related crime and disorder, which would impose costs on the police, enforcement agencies and residents local to licensed premises.

It is impossible to monetise these costs as there is an absence of data on how relaxations of licensing hours impact health and disorder, but the scale of impact is thought to depend on the number of premises that open later for the fixtures that otherwise would not have stayed open under the baseline. It is therefore expected that costs would be greater under Option 1 compared to Option 2.

The main un-quantified benefit is the impact of meeting public expectations of celebrating national football successes and the emotional effect of higher public sentiments. It is also thought that the magnitude of this benefit should be higher under Option 1 compared to Option 2.

Key risks (and risk costs, and optimism bias, where relevant)

Option 0: ‘Do nothing’

Policy risks:

There is a risk that LAs would not have the capacity to process the required number of TEN applications. Premises can submit TENs up to 10 working days before an event or ‘late TENs’ up to 5 working days before an event[footnote 5], which could lead to a larger than average number of applications at the same time and resources being strained.

Option 1 and option 2

Policy risks:

There is a risk of increased alcohol-related crime and disorder caused by the extension of licensable activities later into the evening accompanied by the removal of the requirement to apply for a TEN which is likely to increase the number of businesses interested in extending hours.

Economic and analytical risks:

  • There is limited understanding and evidence on the true processing cost for LAs regarding TENs and whether this matches the current TEN fee.

  • There is considerable uncertainty associated with this analysis as there is no centralised data on the use of previous similar measures to inform a robust well thought out assumption about the number of premises likely to stay open late following the LHO.

Results of sensitivity analysis

N/A

Annex

A. Evidence Base

24. All costs and benefits are calculated against Option 0: ‘Do nothing’. This option would mean on-trade licensed premises, should they wish to, may apply for a TEN to extend their licensing hours for the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup final and/or semi-final(s) should any of the national teams of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, or Wales play in those matches.

General assumptions and data

A1 – Estimating the number of premises that would choose to stay open later in the event that any of the national teams of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, or Wales reach the final and/or semi-finals of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup.

25. There are an estimated 132,200 premises (year ending March 2024 data) in England and Wales with either an on-sales alcohol licence or both an on and off-sales licence[footnote 6].

26. In the absence of more specific data, it is assumed that, under Option 1, between 10 and 20 per cent of licensed premises would choose to stay open later should any of the national teams of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, or Wales reach the final and/or semi-finals of 2026 FIFA World Cup (whether they need to apply for a TEN or not) which translates into a range of between 13,220 and 26,440 premises. This assumption reflects the range of scenarios possible, contingent on the teams reaching each stage; it is likely that more premises will choose to extend their hours for the final than if just one team reaches the semi-final, for example.

27. Under Option 2, which allows premises to extend only for the final should any of the national teams qualify, it is assumed that many premises would have already served a TEN to extend licensing hours for the semi-final match. Given that a TEN lasts for seven days, it is assumed that a smaller range of 2,507 and 13,220 premises are in scope for the costs and benefits of Option 2.

28. To reach this assumption, data on UK viewership figures for England’s semi-finals and finals of Euro 2020 and 2024 was considered as a proxy for the growth in national interest from a semi-final match to a final. It was calculated that, on average, the number of viewers for a semi-final was a proportion of 81 per cent of the viewers for a final. It is assumed that for the lower bound of the range, 81 per cent of premises wanting to show the final will already have served a TEN, leaving 2,507 premises. For the high bound, it is assumed that half of the premises wanting to show the final will require a new TEN, which reflects the uncertainty around how many premises would require an additional TEN to extend licensing hours for the final.

29. The assumptions behind the costs and benefits associated with Options 1 and 2 are based on the relaxation of licensing hours economic note (EN) for the Men’s Euro Licensing Extension (2024)[footnote 7] and the EN for the Women’s Euro Licensing Extension (2025)[footnote 8].

A2 – Estimating the total labour cost to businesses following a policy change

30. This calculation assumes that the employee undertaking this task is within the category of ‘Publicans and managers of licensed premises’ and uses wage estimates from the 2025 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE), four-digit occupational coding (SOC) table[footnote 9]. These are inflated to 2026/27 prices using Office for Budget Responsibility GDP deflators for September 2025[footnote 10]. The ASHE data when inflated to 2026/27 gives an hourly median wage of £15.87; this is used across all scenario ranges.

31. This is just the wage cost and does not factor in other labour costs, such as pension and national insurance employer contributions. The median wage is uplifted by a wage multiplier derived from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Index of Labour Costs per Hour[footnote 11]. This gives the total labour cost of £17.91 per hour.

A3 – Estimating the saved time for businesses associated with giving a Temporary Event Notice

32. In the ‘Do nothing’ scenario, on-trade licensed premises will have to apply for a TEN should they wish to extend their licensing hours.

33. To monetise this, calculations are made around the length of time it would take to read and comprehend a TEN application form. The form is currently 5,700 words in length[footnote 12], which forms the upper range as it assumes that some individuals will read the bulk of the document as well as the footnoted and additional notes information. The lower range is 1,500 words, which is the total words of the main bulk of the form and assumes that some premises will be familiar with the application already and will not need to spend as much time reading and comprehending the document. The central estimate sits at 2,000 words and assumes that most licensed premises will read the main bulk of the form as well as relevant footnotes and additional information.

34. The total cost saving (estimated between £9,700 and £322,700 for Option 1 and between £1,800 and £161,400 for Option 2) is calculated by multiplying the total time to read and complete a TEN form, by the average labour cost of ‘Publicans and managers of licensed premises’ and the number of premises that are expected to extend their opening hours over the final and/or semi-finals. Each premises would be required to complete their own TEN.

A4 – Estimating the cost for LAs to process a Temporary Event Notice

35. The fee for a TEN was set at £21 in the LA 2003[footnote 13] and has remained at this level since then. The purpose of this fee is to compensate the LA for the processing time for an officer to review the TEN application and is treated as cost recovery.

36. For the purposes of this OA, the appraisal assumes that the cost recovery of £21 matches the processing costs to LAs. The low estimate is uplifted by 25 per cent giving a cost of £26.25 to account for potential increases in cost due to the anticipated large capacity and attendance to some establishments.

A5 – Estimating the familiarisation cost for premises following a policy change

37. A common economic cost to policy changes is a familiarisation cost. This is calculated to consider the opportunity cost for an individual spending time reading, comprehending, and becoming familiar with a policy change.

38. This calculation uses the assumption set above (A2) for the labour cost, assumes the employee undertaking this task is within the category ‘Publicans and managers of licensed premises, and uses wage estimates from the 2025 ASHE four-digit SOC table[footnote 14].

39. To calculate the true familiarisation cost, the wage cost is multiplied by the time it takes to read and comprehend a small amount of online text explaining the policy change, which is assumed to be between 100 and 300 words[footnote 15].

A6 – Estimating the cost for police to review a Temporary Event Notice

40. The police will review temporary events notices and can object if they believe an event could lead to crime or disturbance. Under Options 1 and 2, police will save time from not having to review TEN applications from premises wishing to show the semi-final and/or final of the World Cup, should a Home national team qualify.

41. To monetise this saved time, the time taken to read and comprehend a TEN form is used as a proxy for the processing time of police. The time spent on each application is estimated as in A3. This time is then multiplied by an estimate of total hourly labour costs of a police officer reviewing TEN applications.

42. This calculation uses the assumption that officers reviewing applications fall within the category ‘Police officers (sergeant and below)’ uses wage estimates from the 2025 ASHE four-digit SOC table. These are inflated to 2026/27 prices using Office for Budget Responsibility GDP deflators for September 2025[footnote 16]. The ASHE data when inflated to 2026/27 gives an hourly median wage of £24.28; this is used across all scenario ranges. In order to include other labour costs such as pension or national insurance contributions, the median wage is uplifted by a wage multiplier derived from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Index of Labour Costs per Hour[footnote 17]. This gives the total labour cost of £29.41 per hour.

1. Monetised impacts

Costs

Cost 1: Loss of revenue for licensing authorities (fees)

43. A potential cost arising from the LHO is likely to be the lost income to LAs from the additional TEN fees that would have been charged.

44. Under Option 1, assuming between 13,220 and 26,440 premises would have applied for a TEN for the fixtures, this equates to between £277,600 and £555,200 of foregone income, with a central estimate of £416,400.

45. Under Option 2, assuming between 13,220 and 2,507 premises would have applied for a TEN, this instead equates to between £52,600 and £277,600 of foregone income, with a central estimate of £143,600.

46. PThe TEN fee is designed to cover the cost of processing TENs, meaning that LAs’ financial position would not change should there be a reduction in TEN applications, soe, this figure is not included in the total costs. Instead, the opportunity cost of LAs’ time, which they may spend working on other matters other than TENs, is listed as a benefit.

47. As these costs are fees and a transactional cost, which constitutes a transfer between two parties, they are not included in the Net Present Social Value (NPSV).

Cost 2: Familiarisation cost

48. There may be a familiarisation cost to premises that would have applied for a TEN without the LHO, making staff aware of the legislation change. Premises do not need to take any action as a result of the policy and the familiarisation costs are simply reading and comprehending the new legislation, estimated to be between 100 and 300 words of written text. As this would not affect premises that are not planning to extend opening hours, they have not been included in the familiarisation cost.

49. This is calculated as the average time to read and fully comprehend 100 to 300 words of written text[footnote 18] multiplied by the total estimated cost of labour to businesses of ‘Publicans and managers of licensed premises’[footnote 19] multiplied by the number of premises that are expected to extend opening hours.

50. For Option 1, the cost is estimated in a range of £600 to £24,500, with a central estimate of £6,500.

51. For Option 2, these costs are estimated to range from £100 to £12,200, with a central estimate of £2,200.

Benefits

Benefit 1: Saved costs for licenced premises (fees)

52. One of the main benefits of this measure will be the cost savings to businesses from lifting the requirement to apply for a TEN.

53. This benefit is calculated by multiplying the TEN fee (£21) by the number of licensed premises expected to stay open late after the fixtures under each option.

54. For Option 1, this gives a range of fee savings to businesses between £277,600 and £555,200, with a central estimate of £416,400.

55. For Option 2, the fee savings to businesses are estimated within a range of £52,600 and £277,600, with a central estimate of £143,600.

56. The £21 fee for a TEN is considered a transactional cost (or transfer cost) and has been excluded from the NPSV for this measure.

Benefit 2: Saved time for licenced premises

57. Another benefit to licensed premises associated with not having to apply for a TEN is the saved time of the Publican or premise manager of licensed premises not being required to complete an application form.

58. This benefit is calculated by multiplying the time taken to read and comprehend the TEN application form[footnote 20] by the total labour cost of Publicans and managers of licensed premises (£17.91 per hour) multiplied by the number of premises expected to stay open later.

59. For Option 1, this gives a total range of savings between £9,800 and £322,700, with a central estimate of £38,500.

60. For Option 2, the range of savings is estimated to be between £1,800 and £161,400, with a central estimate of £13,300.

Benefit 3 – Reduced cost of processing Temporary Event Notices for licensing authorities

61. The fee for a TEN was set at £21 in the LA 2003[footnote 21] to compensate the LA for the processing time for an officer to review the TEN applications (see A4).

62. The fee is multiplied by the number of premises expected to stay open later (as per A1).

63. For Option 1, this gives a total range of savings between £277,600 and £694,100 with a central estimate of £416,400.

64. For Option 2, this gives a total range of savings between £52,600 and £347,000 with a central estimate of £143,600.

Benefit 4 - Reduced cost of reviewing Temporary Event Notices for police forces

65. The police can review TENs and object to them on grounds of promoting the licensing objectives by giving notice of their objection to the LA within three working days of receiving the TEN. There may be a benefit to police forces through the saved costs of reviewing TENs.

66. This benefit is calculated by multiplying the time taken to read and comprehend the TEN application form by the total labour cost of police officers (sergeant and below) (£29.41 per hour) multiplied by the number of premises expected to stay open later under each Option.

67. For Option 1, this gives a total range of savings between £16,000 and £530,000, with a central estimate of £63,200.

68. For Option 2, this gives a total range of savings between £3,000 and £265,000, with a central estimate of £21,800.

Overall

Option 1

69. The total cost of Option 1 is estimated to be in a range of £0.001 million to £0.02 million (PV), with a central estimate of £0.01 million. This is likely to be an underestimate due to the non-monetised costs in this option.

70. The total benefits are estimated to be in range of £0.82 million to £1.55 million (PV), with a central estimate of £0.98 million. This is also likely to be underestimated due to the non-monetised benefits in this option.

71. The monetised cost to business is estimated to be between £0.001 million and £0.02 (PV) with a central estimate of £0.01 million.

72. The monetised benefit to businesses is estimated to be between £0.29 million and £0.88 million (PV) with a central estimate of £0.45 million.

73. The Net Present Social Value (NPSV) lies in a range of £0.82 million to £1.52 million (PV), with a central estimate of £0.98 million (PV).

Table 1: Option 1 summary costs, benefits, NPSV and BNPV, England and Wales, £ million, 2025/26.

Summary Low Central High
Total Costs 0.02 0.01 0.00
Total Benefits 1.55 0.98 0.82
NPSV 1.52 0.98 0.82
BNPV 0.85 0.45 0.29
EANDCB 0.00 0.00 0.00

Source: Home Office own estimates, 2025.

Note: Economic transfers are not included in the above table. Estimates are driven primarily by the number of businesses who are assumed to have applied for a TEN under Option 0 where the low scenario presents the highest number of businesses; the lowest scenario presents the ‘best case’.

Option 2

74. The total cost of Option 2 is estimated to be in a range of £0.0001 million to £0.01 million (PV), with a central estimate of £0.002 million. This is likely to be an underestimate due to the non-monetised costs in this option.

75. The total benefits are estimated to be in range of £0.32 million to £0.77 million (PV), with a central estimate of £0.42 million. This is also likely to be underestimated due to the non-monetised benefits in this option.

76. The monetised cost to business is estimated to be between £0.0001 million and £0.01 (PV) with a central estimate of £0.002 million.

77. The monetised benefit to businesses is estimated to be between £0.05 million and £0.44 million (PV) with a central estimate of £0.16 million.

78. The Net Present Social Value (NPSV) lies in a range of £0.32 million to £0.76 million (PV), with a central estimate of £0.42 million (PV).

Table 2: Option 2 summary costs, benefits, NPSV and BNPV, England and Wales, £ million, 2025/26.

Summary Low Central High
Total Costs 0.00 0.00 0.01
Total Benefits 0.77 0.42 0.32
NPSV 0.76 0.42 0.32
BNPV 0.43 0.15 0.05
EANDCB 0.00 0.00 0.00

Source: Home Office own estimates, 2025.

Note: Economic transfers are not included in the above table. Estimates are driven primarily by the number of businesses who are assumed to have applied for a TEN under Option 0 where the low scenario presents the highest number of businesses; the lowest scenario presents the ‘best case’.

2. Non-monetised impacts

Non-monetised costs

Cost 3: Increased health harms

79. Options 1 and 2 may lead to a net rise in alcohol consumption due to the increased opportunity to buy alcohol in an on-sales premises until 1am on the fixture dates, if premises decide to extend hours that otherwise would either chosen not to apply for an extension or would have had their application rejected or modified. In this instance this could lead to a net increase in alcohol related health harms. This is reliant upon the health of individuals who consume alcohol and their personal consumption patterns.

80. It is possible that Option 1 may lead to greater health harms when compared with Option 2, as extending hours for the additional semi-final fixtures gives more opportunity to buy alcohol.

81. This increased opportunity to consume alcohol only occurs over the fixture date/s in July 2026 and is unlikely to have severe long term health effects.

82. The LHO brings the potential risk of an increase in alcohol-related crime and disorder, which could impose costs on the police, enforcement agencies and residents local to licensed premises. There is a strong link between alcohol and crime. In 39 per cent of all violent incidents in 2023/24 the victim believed the perpetrator to be under the influence of alcohol according to the Crime Survey England and Wales[footnote 22].

83. The relaxation of licensing hours would not be likely to result in a substantial increase in the overall number of premises staying open late over the World Cup 2026 final and/or semi-final(s), as many premises would likely apply for TENs for these fixtures under the ‘do nothing’ Option. There may be a small number of premises that choose to stay open later under a licensing extension that would not have applied for a TEN. There may also be a small number of premises whose TENs would have been rejected or modified following LA, police or environmental health authority (EHA) concerns but would now be able to stay open late if licensing hours were relaxed. Any increase in crime as a result of longer licencing hours could only be attributed to the national licencing extension if associated with a premises that would not have extended licencing hours anyway via the TEN process.

84. There is an absence of reliable data on the impact on crime when relaxing the licensing hours for a nationally significant event. There is some evidence internationally to indicate that an increase in on-trade trading hours is associated with a rise in crime. This includes evidence from Perth that there was a significant rate increase in monthly assaults between 1991 and 1997 for public hours with extended trading hours under the newly introduced extended trading permits[footnote 23], and evidence from Reykjavik that increased serving hours led to an increase in violent offenses reported by police from 1999 to 2000[footnote 24]. No meta-analysis is available to accurately quantify the mean effect of local licensing schemes. Furthermore, the lack of a significant rise in alcohol-related crime following the implementation of 24-hour licensing in England and Wales[footnote 25] suggests that a national licencing extension would not necessarily lead to an increase in crime rates.

85. While industry stakeholders are supportive of extensions for sporting events, the National Police Chiefs’ Council have previously drawn attention to data that shows a link between the England men’s team’s performance in international football competitions and higher levels of domestic abuse[footnote 26]. They are therefore less supportive overall.

86. Option 1 may lead to a greater increase in alcohol-related crime and disorder when compared with Option 2, as the licensing hours relaxation under Option 1 covers more fixtures. It is not possible to estimate the magnitude of this difference, as it depends on the number of premises that decide to extend hours that otherwise would either chosen not to apply for an extension or would have had their application rejected or modified.

Cost 5: Reduced profit for off-trade premises

87. If licensed premises are open later as a result of the LHO, this may result in a displacement of alcohol profits from off-trade premises (places where alcohol is purchased for consumption away from premises, such as corner shops) to the on-trade premises, as more customers may consume alcohol in pubs and bars during and after the final and/or semi-finals.

88. It is, it is likely that many premises that choose to open under the LHO would have otherwise sought a TEN under the ‘Do nothing’ option, so any displacement effect is estimated to be small.

89. Though the displacement effect is thought to be small, it is possible that it would be greater under Option 1 than Option 2, as the additional fixtures covered in the licensing hours relaxation under Option 1 may lead to a greater number of premises staying open later for matches.

Non-monetised benefits

Benefit 5 - Reduced cost of reviewing Temporary Event Notices for environmental health authorities

90. The police and EHAs can review TENs and object to them on grounds of promoting the licensing objectives by giving notice of their objection to the LA within three working days of receiving the TEN. There may be a benefit to EHAs through the saved costs of reviewing TENs.

91. In previous ENs for similar licensing hours extensions, such as for the 2025 UEFA Women’s Euro Championship, this benefit could not be quantified for police or environmental health authorities. For this analysis, the benefit to police is monetised, but it could not be quantified for EHAs due to an absence of high-quality data on the time spent by EHAs on reviewing and objecting to TENs.

Benefit 6 – Increased profits for a greater number of premises staying open later

92. It is possible that lifting the requirement to apply for a TEN may incentivise more businesses to stay open later whom otherwise may not have done. This is because relaxing the licensing hours will reduce the opportunity costs for businesses to stay open as they will no longer need to factor in the cost of filling out a TEN[footnote 27].

93. Although it is unclear how the LHO may impact profits for pubs in this case,based on early results of an Extended Licensing Survey for the police, the British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA; 2024)[footnote 28] estimated that pubs staying open later for the UEFA Men’s Euro Championship final 2024 would result in an additional 750,000 pints being sold. This is equivalent in sales to £3.7 million in 2025/26 prices.

94. This benefit is unmonetised for the purpose of this consultation OA as it is uncertain how many sales pubs and bars would have made in the baseline. There is also expected to be a substitution effect between additional sales from on-license premises and a reduction in other late-night alcohol sales.

95. For the same reason it is impossible to estimate the difference in this impact between Option 1 and Option 2, though it is thought that under Option 1, which includes additional semi-final fixtures, the increased profits may be greater compared with Option 2.

Benefit 7 – Meeting a public expectation to celebrate an event of national importance

96. It is likely that there will be a positive effect on societal welfare as people see the government as encouraging them to celebrate an event of national importance, should any of the national teams of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, or Wales progress far in the tournament. This is non-monetised as the true emotional effect of the policy and any subsequent impacts are difficult to estimate, but it could positively influence public sentiment and encourage spending elsewhere in the economy.

97. It is difficult to estimate the difference in this impact between Options 1 and 2, but it may be thought that Option 1, which includes the semi-final fixtures, will yield a higher positive emotional effect, and that this Option also addresses public expectations of celebrating national success more than Option 2.

3. Expected overall impacts

98. The overall impact of this measure on social welfare is expected to be business-driven, but minimal and short-term.

99. There are three main benefits from this policy measure. The first is meeting a public expectation to celebrate the success of the national football teams. This is an unquantifiable social benefit. Another benefit is the indirect benefit of potential cost savings for businesses who choose to stay open late by removing the requirement to complete a TEN application, which is monetised. The third benefit, which is also monetised, is the reduced time spent processing TEN applications for LAs.

100. The benefits of this policy are driven by the number of premises that do not have to apply for a licensing hours extension, or that decide to stay open that would otherwise not have applied. It can be thought that, under Option 1, which includes more fixtures than Option 2, the magnitude of these benefits should be greater when compared with Option 2.

101. The main costs of the proposal are a potential increase in alcohol-related crime and health harms, and costs for businesses familiarising themselves with the LHO; the latter cost is monetised. Due to impacts occurring over a maximum of three days, crime and health harm costs are likely to be minimal and are unmonetised.

102. As with the benefits, the scale of the costs is driven by the number of premises who are impacted by the licensing hours extension, and so it is thought that Option 1 should yield greater costs compared to Option 2.

4. Distributional Impacts

103. This legislation is not expected to have any notable regional effects. Slight regional impacts may occur contingent on the performance of any of the national teams of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, or Wales in the Championship as pubs and bars in England and Wales may be more or less likely to be impacted dependent on their own performance.

104. The hospitality and retail industries are both expected to be impacted. Off-trade premises in the retail sector are likely to be adversely impacted due to the expected substitution effect of sales toward on-trade premises, any impact of this is likely to be minimal as the appraisal period covers a maximum of three days and is contingent on the performance of England, Wales, Scotland and/or Northern Ireland in the 2026 World Cup.

5. Impacts on wider government priorities

Business Environment

105. The period for which this legislation is likely to have impacts is a maximum of three days contingent on the performance of any of the national teams of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, or Wales in the Championship. There is not expected to be any considerable impacts on the ease of doing business in the UK.

International Considerations

106. The legislation is not expected to have any impact on international trade and investment.

Natural Capital and Decarbonisation

107. This measure is not anticipated to lead to a significant negative impact on natural capital and decarbonisation. It is possible that the measure could lead to increased noise should additional pubs choose to stay open later following the measure. As the measure is only temporary, and many pubs would choose to stay open later anyway these impacts are expected to be minimal.

B. Statutory Equalities Duty

Mandatory specific impact test - Statutory Equalities Duties

Statutory Equalities Duties: Complete

The public sector equality duty requires public bodies to have due regard to the need to eliminate discrimination, improve equality of opportunity, and foster good relations in the course of developing policies and delivering services. (Equality Duty Toolkit)

Due to the limited time the licence extension will be in place and given that it is not changing the way alcohol is sold to the public, no significant impacts on any of the protected characteristics are expected due to direct or indirect discrimination. Given that the policy has no foreseeable impact on who can and cannot purchase alcohol, no impacts on equality of opportunity, nor any impact in relation to encouraging good relationships for those who share and do not share protected characteristics are expected.

The SRO has agreed these summary findings.

  1. Licensing Act 2003: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2003/17/section/172 ↩

  2. The Licensing Act 2003 (UEFA European Football Championship Licensing Hours) Order 2024: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2024/701/contents/made ↩

  3. The Licensing Act 2003 (UEFA Women’s European Football Championship Licensing Hours) Order 2025: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/793/contents/made ↩

  4. Kickstarting Economic Growth - GOV.UK: https://www.gov.uk/missions/economic-growth ↩

  5. GOV.UK (2025), Temporary Events Notice (England and Wales), https://www.gov.uk/find-licences/temporary-events-notice ↩

  6. Home Office (2024) ‘Alcohol licensing, England and Wales, April 2023 to March 2024’; Data Tables, Table 1 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/alcohol-licensing-england-and-wales-april-2023-to-march-2024 ↩

  7. The Licensing Act 2003 (UEFA European Football Championship Licensing Hours) Order 2024: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2024/701/pdfs/uksiod_20240701_en_001.pdf ↩

  8. The Licensing Act 2003 (UEFA Women’s European Football Championship Licensing Hours) Order 2025: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2025/793/pdfs/uksiod_20250793_en_001.pdf ↩

  9. ONS (2025) Earnings and hours worked, occupation by four-digit SOC: ASHE Table 14, Table 14.5a, Datasets. https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/regionbypublicandprivatesectorashetable25 ↩

  10. GDP deflators at market prices, and money GDP; September 2025 https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/gdp-deflators-at-market-prices-and-money-gdp ↩

  11. ONS (2020) Index of Labour Costs per Hour: level (£) by sector, seasonally adjusted. https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/indexoflabourcostsperhourilchseasonallyadjusted ↩

  12. The average time taken to read, comprehend and fill out a TENs form is between 2.5 and 40.9 minutes. These estimations are calculated using http://www.readingsoft.com/ ↩

  13. Legislation.gov.uk (2003) Licensing Act 2003, UK Public General Acts. https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2003/17/contents. ↩

  14. ONS (2025), Earnings and hours worked, occupation by four-digit SOC: ASHE Table 14, Table 14.5a, Datasets. https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14 ↩

  15. The times taken to read and comprehend the policy change are calculated using http://www.readingsoft.com/ ↩

  16. GDP deflators at market prices, and money GDP; September 2025 https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/gdp-deflators-at-market-prices-and-money-gdp ↩

  17. ONS (2020) Index of Labour Costs per Hour: level (£) by sector, seasonally adjusted. https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/indexoflabourcostsperhourilchseasonallyadjusted ↩

  18. It is assumed that a policy update for premises noting that the new legislation will only be a small sized length of text. The times taken to read and comprehend the policy change are calculated using http://www.readingsoft.com/. ↩

  19. ONS (2025p) Earnings and hours worked, occupation by four-digit SOC: ASHE Table 14, Table 14.5a, Datasets. https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/occupation4digitsoc2010ashetable14 ↩

  20. The average time taken to read, comprehend and fill out a TENs form is between 2.5 and 40.9 minutes. These estimations are calculated using http://www.readingsoft.com/. ↩

  21. Legilsation.gov.uk (2003) Licensing Act 2003, UK Public General Acts. https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2003/17/contents ↩

  22. ONS (2025), Nature of crime: violence. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/datasets/natureofcrimetablesviolence. ↩

  23. Chikritzhs and Stockwell (2001), The Impact of Later Trading Hours for Australian Public Houses (Hotels) on Levels of Violence. https://espace.curtin.edu.au/bitstream/handle/20.500.11937/25494/19058_downloaded_stream_150.pdf?sequence=2&isAllowed=y ↩

  24. Ragnarsdóttir et al. (2011), Alcohol-related mishaps on weekends in Reykjavík. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.2478/v10199-011-0009-0 ↩

  25. Institute for Alcohol Studies (2016), The Licensing Act 2003: its uses and abuses 10 years on. https://www.ias.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/rp21032016.pdf ↩

  26. NPCC (2024), Police to target domestic abusers during Euroshttps://news.npcc.police.uk/releases/police-record-over-three-hundred-domestic-abuse-offences-linked-to-euros-tournament ↩

  27. This includes the TEN fee (£21) and the central estimate for the benefit associated with the saved time giving a TEN (£1.97) which is calculated as the average labour cost for Publicans or premise owners (£17.91) multiplied by the total reading time (6.5 minutes) as per benefit 2. ↩

  28. The British Beer and Pub Association (2024) 40 per cent of pubs to stay open later for semi-finals. https://beerandpub.com/news/40-of-pubs-to-open-later-for-england-s-euros-semi-final/ ↩

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