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Next publication of UK HPI
The January 2024 UK HPI will be published at 9.30am on Wednesday 20 March 2024. See the calendar of release dates for more information.
Northern Ireland sales volumes
We’ve changed the way we publish the Northern Ireland sales volumes and corrected the way we include them in the UK figures. We’ve produced a monthly estimate by dividing the total sales volumes for the quarter in Northern Ireland by 3.
We previously included the quarterly Northern Ireland data in the monthly UK sales volumes data, which resulted in higher than expected sales figures.
Methodology change for new build property
Because of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on both the number and supply of housing transactions, some methodology changes have been made. The processing of “new build” properties has been more affected than the processing of “old build” properties. Users are advised that estimates for new build properties may be less representative and more likely to be revised. To help address this, we have pooled new build transactions for certain months in England and Wales since 2020. Usually, new build volumes have been pooled for six months, but we have extended the pooling period because of low new build volumes to pool for ten months. This means that:
January 2023 includes new build transactions from December 2022 and January 2023
February 2023 includes new build transactions from January 2023 and February 2023
March 2023 includes new build transactions from February 2023 and March 2023
April 2023 includes new build transactions from March 2023 and April 2023
May 2023 includes new build transactions from April 2023 and May 2023
June 2023 includes new build transactions from May 2023 and June 2023
July 2023 includes new build transactions from June 2023 and July 2023
August 2023 includes new build transactions from July 2023 and August 2023
September 2023 includes new build transactions from August 2023 and September 2023
October 2023 includes new build transactions from September 2023 and October 2023
November 2023 includes new build transactions from October 2023 and November 2023
December 2023 has not been affected because the model for the first estimate does not use the new build indicator to predict property price because of the nature of their processing.
A key determinant of house prices is the demographic characteristics of the area in which the property is located. The UK HPI uses the socio-demographic classification, known as Acorn (produced and licensed by CACI Ltd), in the hedonic regression model to measure the affluence of the area.
From 20 December 2023’s publication, a change was made to how property transactions for Great Britain with a missing Acorn classification are used in the regression model. This methodology improvement increases UK coherence and improves the quality of UK HPI statistics. More information is available in the UK HPI Quality and Methodology Information and in the Acorn quality assurance information.