National statistics

Wild bird populations in England, 1970 to 2022

Updated 7 November 2023

Applies to England

Use of the data

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The accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in February 2012. See Assessment Report 173 Statistics on Sustainability and the Environment in England and the UK. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled ‘accredited official statistics’. Since that assessment by the Office for Statistics Regulation, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics.

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Key changes to the England wild bird publication

Updates for this publication are:

• For this publication, we have changed how we refer to change in the headline indicators. We still use the smoothed trends because the unsmoothed indices are subject to more volatility than the smoothed trends, and so may be misleading. However, this year changes in the smoothed trends over time periods have been calculated including the most recent year of data. Since this release does not include updated data for seabirds, changes in unsmoothed trends for seabirds are calculated using the old method, which excludes the most recent year of data. When updated data for seabirds is next published, the new method will be used. The most recent data point in all these indices is subject to more volatility than the rest of the series, due in part to data updates made after publication. It is known that the final point in a smoothed trend is also subject to extra volatility, due to the statistical technique used. However it is deemed that the most recent smoothed data point is still a fairer representation of bird populations than the unsmoothed index, and better reflects the most current state. Our method for assessing change in individual species over time has not changed, and is carried out on the smoothed indices excluding the most recent data points. When referring to change in the short term to individual species we are referring specifically to changes between the 2016 to 2021, and for wintering waterbirds between the winters of 2015/2016 to 2020/2021, and for seabirds between 2013 to 2018.
• The chapters on all-species chapter 1, farmland chapter 2, woodland chapter 3, water and wetland chapter 4, wintering waterbirds chapter 6, chapter 7.

What we have not updated in this publication:

• We were unable to update seabirds chapter 5 as the collection of 2020 data was affected by COVID-19 restrictions and processes related to the transfer of the operation of the Seabird Monitoring Programme (SMP) from the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) to the British Trust for Ornithology (BTO). BTO are planning to publish trends from the SMP later this year.

• We no longer be produce an Annex showing long-term and short-term trends in bird species by habitat. However, all the relevant data is available in the data sets provided alongside this publication.

Executive summary

The combined all-species index has shown a shallow decline, of 12% over the last 45 years, however, this masks considerable variation, with some species increasing and some species decreasing. Changes by habitat are summarised below, using smoothed indices to assess change over long and/or short-term trends as they reduce short-term peaks and troughs.

Figure 1: Populations of wild birds in England, 1970 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 1 in ods format

Notes about Figure 1:

1. This indicator includes individual measures for 118 species of wild birds.
2. Figure 1 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.

The latest data shows that for 2022:

• the all-species index in England was 12% below its 1970 value
• the farmland bird index was 61% below its 1970 value
• the woodland bird index was 39% below its 1970 value
• the water and wetland bird index was 3% lower than in 1975
• the wintering waterbirds index was 88% higher in 2021/2022 than in 1975/1976
• the upland bird index was 9% below its 1994 value

The data for the seabirds index have not been updated this year, so the following trend from the 2021 publication is still current:

• in 2019, the seabirds index was 11% higher than its 1986 value

Table 1: Long and short-term trends at a glance for England

Index	Index started	Trend year end	Long-term trend	Short-term trend
All bird species	1970	2022	-12%	-6%
Farmland	1970	2022	-61%	-7%
Wetland	1975	2022	-3%	-8%
Woodland	1970	2022	-39%	-15%
Wintering waterbirds	1975/1976	2021/2022	88%	-8%
Upland	1994	2022	-9%	-5%
Seabirds	1986	2018	9%	4%

Notes for Table 1:

1. Data for the seabirds index only show trends to 2018.
2. The seabird indicator is an unsmoothed trend as no smoothed trend is yet available.

Introduction

Why monitor bird populations

Bird populations have long been considered to provide a good indication of the broad state of wildlife in England. This is because they occupy a wide range of habitats and respond to environmental pressures that also operate on other groups of wildlife. In addition, there are considerable long-term data on trends in bird populations, allowing for comparison between trends in the short term and long term. Because they are a well-studied taxonomic group, drivers of change for birds are better understood than for other species groups, which enable better interpretation of any observed changes. Birds also have huge cultural importance and are highly valued as a part of the UK’s natural environment by the general public. Although bird indicators can reflect the health of the natural environment more widely, those presented in this publication should not be used in isolation to infer the status of all other species groups.

It is not practical to determine changes in the actual number of birds for each species in England each year, but it is possible and more reliable to assess their status by calculating relative change, based on counts on representative sample plots surveyed as part of national monitoring schemes (see Main notes at the end for more details of the survey sources used).

Trends in bird populations are used by policy makers, government agencies and non-governmental organisations as part of the evidence base with which to assess the effects of environmental management, such as agricultural practices or woodland management, on bird populations. The trends are also used to assess the effectiveness of environmental interventions intended to address declines, such as agri-environment schemes targeted at farmland birds.

Understanding the bird population indices

Individual bird species population trends, based on carefully designed surveys undertaken largely by volunteer experts, are calculated as a series of annual indices. These relate the population in a given year to a ‘baseline’ – the first year that data are available – which is given a value of 100. Thereafter, the index is expressing the population as a percentage of this ‘baseline’.

This annual Defra Accredited Official Statistics Release presents data trends up to 2022 in populations of common birds (species with a population of at least 300 breeding pairs) that are native to, and breed in, England, with trends overall as well as for 5 main habitat groups (see relevant data sets published alongside this update for a list of birds in each group). The release also presents trends up to 2021/2022 for wintering waterbirds, some of which also breed in the England.

The charts presented combine individual species indices into a single indicator to provide an overall trend for each group mentioned above. Using a geometric mean - an average calculated by multiplying a set of index values and taking the nth root, where n is the number of index values. More information can be found in Introduction to the Wild Birds Population Indicator. The indices are considered to give reliable medium to long-term trends, but strong reliance should not be attached to short-term changes from year to year.

Assessing trends

Smoothed trends are referred to in the text, which are used to formally assess the statistical significance of change over time. For seabirds, there are currently no smoothed trends. Smoothed trends are used for both long and short-term assessments as they reduce the short-term peaks and troughs resulting from, for example, year-to-year weather and sampling variations as well as good or bad breeding seasons See analytical methods on BTO website (Fewster et al. 2000. Ecology 81: 1970 to 1984). The most recent data point in smoothed trends, that is, 2022 in this update, can change in subsequent publications due to the smoothing process being applied to additional 2022 data included in future updates (see BTO Research Report on ‘Production of smoothed population trends when a year of data is missing’ on BTO’s ‘Bird Indicators’ web page). Results and estimates of change are based on smoothed indices but unsmoothed trends are also provided in the plots.

These trends are based on estimates from surveys. Smoothed trends are presented with 95% confidence intervals (CI), which are a measure of the precision of these survey estimates: a 95% CI means users can be 95% confident that the true value of an indicator in a given year falls within the confidence interval around it. The width of the confidence intervals varies between habitat indicators because it is influenced by the number of species in each indicator and the precision of the individual species trends that make up the indicator. For the indicators derived from species trends that cannot be statistically evaluated by this method (for example, wintering waterbirds and all-species), a threshold of 5% is used to evaluate the significance of the change.

Throughout this release, assessment periods are referred to as:

• ‘Long-term’ – an assessment of change since the earliest date for which data are available; this varies among indicators and among individual species.
• ‘Short-term’ – an assessment of change over the latest 5 years for which data are available.

The data sets published alongside this update show long-term and short-term assessments for each individual bird species.

Alongside the overall index, the percentage of species within each indicator that have increased or decreased in the long-term and in the short-term is also shown. This is based on the average rate of annual change over the long or short-term, categorised by how much the population would change if that annual change continued for 25 years. These thresholds are asymmetrical to represent symmetrical proportional change in an index, that is, the opposite of a 50% decline is a doubling (a 100% increase), not a 50% increase. These thresholds are derived from those used in the Birds of Conservation Concern status assessment on the BTO website for birds in the UK.

The 5 categories of change are defined as:

• strong increase: population increase of 100% or more
• weak increase: more than 33% but less than 100% increase
• little change: between a 25% decrease and a 33% increase
• weak decline: less than 50% but greater than 25% decrease
• strong decline: population decrease of 50% or more

The bird population indices have been compiled in conjunction with the British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

1. Native breeding wild bird populations in England

Trend description

In 2022, the all-species index in England, based on the aggregated population trends of 118 breeding species, was 12% below its 1970 value.

The indicator declined between the late 1970s and the late 1980s, driven mostly by relatively steep declines in woodland and farmland birds. The all-species index has since levelled off although the index shows a 6% decrease between 2017 and 2022.

Within the index, 30% of the 118 species increased, 40% showed little change and 31% declined since 1970. It was not possible to calculate a long-term trend for 3 species because their data series start in 2005 or later.

Over the short-term period 23% of species increased, 28% showed little change and 48% declined.

Figure 1.1: Populations of wild birds in England, 1970 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 1.1 in ods format

Figure 1.2: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for wild birds in England, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 1.2 in ods format

Notes for Figures 1.1 and 1.2

1. This indicator includes individual measures for 118 species of wild birds.
2. Figure 1.1 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
3. Figure 1.2 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
4. Figure 1.2 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.
5. Figure 1.2: Data for 3 species that contribute to the calculation of short term changes, are not available for the calculation of long term changes.
6. The lower confidence intervals for 1994 and 1995 were un-estimable, this is due to the high uncertainty around the population trend for Snipe which is a scarce species. As a result the lower confidence intervals on the graph abridges the two data points for 1993 and 1996.

Species breakdown

The 118 species of birds included in the index includes all widespread species, with populations of at least 300 breeding pairs, for which there are sufficient data to calculate a trend. Species trends within this index vary widely, from those increasing several-fold (for example, buzzard, Cetti’s warbler, avocet, great spotted woodpecker and collared dove) to those having declined to less than a tenth of their 1970 numbers (for example, turtle dove, willow tit, grey partridge, lesser redpoll, spotted flycatcher and tree sparrow). The main patterns and drivers of change are best considered by looking at the indices of species grouped by habitat below in Figure 1.3 and described in greater detail in the following chapters.

Figure 1.3: Populations of wild birds in England by habitat, 1970 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 1.3 in ods format

Notes for Figure 1.3

1. Figure 1.3 shows the unsmoothed trends (dashed line) and the smoothed trends (solid line) for the 5 main habitat groups of wild birds.

2. Breeding farmland bird populations in England

Trend description

Farmland refers to the 68% of land in England which is devoted to agriculture. Farmland also provides semi-natural habitats such as hedgerows and field margins that provide food and shelter to birds.

In 2022 England farmland bird index was 61% below its 1970 value. The majority of this decline occurred between the late 1970s and the 1980s largely due to the negative impact of rapid changes in farmland management during this period. The decline has continued at a slower rate more recently; the index showed a decline of 7% in the short term.

Since 1970, 26% of species showed a strong decline and 32% showed a weak decline. Over the same period, 21% showed a weak increase and 21% showed little or no change.

Some species showed some recovery in the short-term; 21% of species increased, 37% showed little change and 42% declined.

Figure 2.1: Breeding farmland birds in England, 1970 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 2.1 in ods format

Figure 2.2: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for farmland birds in England, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 2.2 in ods format

Notes for Figures 2.1 and 2.2:

1. This indicator includes individual measures for 19 species of farmland birds.
2. Figure 2.1 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
3. Figure 2.2 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
4. Figure 2.2 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Factors affecting farmland bird populations

The large declines in the abundance of many farmland birds have a number of known and potential causes. For a large part, declines have been caused by the changes in farming practices that have taken place since the 1950s and 1960s, such as the loss of mixed farming, a move from spring to autumn sowing of arable crops, change in grassland management (for example, a switch from hay to silage production), increased pesticide and fertiliser use, and the removal of non-cropped features such as hedgerows. The rate of these changes, which resulted in the loss of suitable nesting and suitable feeding habitats, and a reduction in available food, was greatest during the late 1970s and early 1980s, the period during which many farmland bird populations declined most rapidly. However, some generalist species such as woodpigeon have benefitted from increased availability of their food throughout the winter owing to the autumn sowing of crops.

Some farming practices continue to have negative impacts on bird populations, but most farmers can and do take positive steps to conserve birds on their land. In particular, a number of incentive schemes encourage improved environmental stewardship in farming, with some measures specifically designed to help stabilise and recover farmland bird populations. These include the provision of over-wintered stubbles and planted wild bird crop covers to provide seed in the winter, uncropped margins on arable fields and sympathetic management of hedgerows. There is growing evidence that such action can deliver local recoveries in farmland bird populations and thus, if delivered at appropriate scale, wider recovery. Changes in numbers experienced by some species may, to a lesser extent, be further driven by other pressures. For example, there is evidence of an adverse impact from disease for some species, most notably greenfinch.

For more information about the evidence for this indicator, see the evidence statement Annex 1.03 Evidence Statement for C5a Farmland Birds.

Species breakdown

The farmland bird index contains data for 19 species. The long-term decline of the farmland bird indicator in England has been driven mainly by the decline of those species that are restricted to, or highly dependent on, farmland habitats (the ‘specialists’). Between 1970 and 2022, the index for farmland specialists declined by 75% while for farmland generalists it declined by 14%.

Figure 2.3: Breeding farmland birds in England, 1970 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 2.3 in ods format

Notes for Figure 2.3:

1. This indicator includes individual measures for 19 species of farmland birds, of which 12 species are farmland specialists and 7 species are farmland generalists.
2. Figure 2.3 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line).

Farmland specialists

Changes in farming practices, such as the loss of mixed farming systems, the move from spring to autumn sowing of cereal crops, and increased pesticide use, have been demonstrated to have had adverse impacts on farmland birds such as skylark and grey partridge. Five farmland specialists (corn bunting, grey partridge, starling, turtle dove and tree sparrow) have experienced severe declines, between 85 and 99%. since 1970. In contrast, numbers of two other farmland specialists (stock dove and goldfinch) have more than doubled over the same period, illustrating how responses to pressures varies among species.

Since 1970, 17% of the 12 specialist species in the farmland indicator increased, 8% showed little change and 75% declined.

The index for farmland specialists shows that in the short term on average specialists declined by 7%. Over this period, 25% of the specialist species in the farmland bird indicator increased, 33% showed little change and 42% declined. Lapwing, tree sparrow and turtle dove all showed strong declines over this period.

Figure 2.4: Breeding farmland specialist birds in England, 1970 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 2.4 in ods format

Figure 2.5: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for farmland specialist birds in England, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 2.5 in ods format

Notes for Figures 2.4 and 2.5:

1. This indicator includes individual measures for 12 species of farmland specialist birds.
2. Figure 2.4 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
3. Figure 2.5 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
4. Figure 2.5 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Farmland generalists

There are 7 generalist farmland species included in the indicator and they utilise a wider range of habitats than the specialist farmland species. Since 1970 the generalist farmland index has declined by 14%.

Generalist farmland species have fared better than specialists over the long term since 1970; 29% of the 7 generalist species in the indicator increased, 43% showed little change and 29% declined. The indices for woodpigeon and jackdaw populations have more than doubled relative to 1970 levels, while numbers of yellow wagtail and greenfinch have declined by 64% and 66% respectively.

The index shows that in the short term generalist farmland species declined by 6% on average. Three of the seven species declined over this period; greenfinch by 30%, kestrel by 12% and reed bunting by 8%. Greenfinch numbers have been negatively impacted by the disease trichomonosis. Jackdaw is the only species to show a marked increase, of 9%, over this period.

Figure 2.6: Breeding farmland generalist birds in England, 1970 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 2.6 in ods format

Figure 2.7: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for farmland generalist birds in England, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 2.7 in ods format

Notes for Figures 2.6 and 2.7:

1. This indicator includes individual measures for 7 species of farmland generalist birds.
2. Figure 2.6 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
3. Figure 2.7 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
4. Figure 2.7 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

3. Breeding woodland bird populations in England

Trend description

Woodland covers 10% of England’s land area, providing trees and other vegetation suitable for nesting, foraging opportunities and cover from predators.

In 2022, the breeding woodland bird indicator for England was 39% below its 1970 value. The greatest decline occurred between the early 1980s and the early 1990s. The index was stable, at around 80% of the 1970 numbers, between 1995 and 2012, since when it has decreased further by 15% in the short term.

Since 1970, 21% of species increased, 47% showed little change and 32% declined, the majority of the latter showing a strong decline.

In the short-term, 15% of species increased, 24% showed little change and 62% declined.

Figure 3.1: Breeding woodland birds in England, 1970 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 3.1 in ods format

Figure 3.2: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for woodland birds in England, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 3.2 in ods format

Notes for Figure 3.1 and 3.2:

1. This indicator includes individual measures for 34 species of woodland birds.
2. Figure 3.1 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
3. Figure 3.2 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
4. Figure 3.2 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Factors affecting woodland birds

The declines in woodland birds have several known and potential causes, such as a lack of woodland management (including the cessation of traditional practices such as coppicing) and increased deer browsing pressure, both of which result in a reduced diversity of woodland structure and reduced availability of suitable nesting and foraging habitats. Changes in farmland management, such as the removal of hedgerows, adversely impacted many of the species in the indicator which have substantial populations outside of woodland, for example, in farmland and gardens. In addition, several declining woodland birds are long-distance migrants, and a decline in the extent or quality of habitats used outside of England in the non-breeding season (in stop-over sites or African wintering areas) may be a significant factor affecting these species. Positive factors include the increasing area of woodland cover and milder winters potentially having a beneficial impact for some species.

For more information about the evidence for this indicator, see the evidence statement Annex 1.04 Evidence Statement for C5b Woodland Birds.

Species breakdown

The woodland bird index contains data for 34 species. The overall trend masks different underlying trends for specialist species, those which are highly dependent on woodland habitats, and generalist species, which are found in a wide range of habitats, including woodland.

In 2022, the woodland specialists index was 51% lower than in 1970, while the index for woodland generalists was only 10% lower (Figure 3.3). Over the short term, the woodland specialists have decreased by 17% and the woodland generalists have decreased by 12%.

Figure 3.3: Breeding woodland birds in England, 1970 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 3.3 in ods format

Notes for Figure 3.3:

1. This indicator includes individual measures for 34 species of woodland birds, of which 22 species are woodland specialists and 12 species are woodland generalists.
2. Figure 3.3 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line).

Woodland specialists

Eight species of woodland specialists have more than halved since 1970, with 5 species (lesser spotted woodpecker, lesser redpoll, willow tit, spotted flycatcher and tree pipit) having declined by 90% or more. In contrast, populations of 5 woodland specialists (blackcap, chiffchaff, great spotted woodpecker, nuthatch and sparrowhawk) have more than doubled since 1970. However, numbers of sparrowhawk have declined by 10% in the short term.

In the short term, the index for specialists shows a 17% decline. However, species within it show markedly different trends over this period. Lesser spotted woodpecker, wood warbler and willowtit have all decreased by 40% or more, and green woodpecker, spotted flycatcher and tree pipit by more than 20%. Blackcap and nightingale show increases of almost 20% over this period.

Since 1970, 32% of the 22 specialist species in the woodland indicator increased, 27% showed little change and 41% declined.

In the short term, 23% of the 22 specialist species increased, 9% showed little change and 68% showed a weak or strong decrease.

Figure 3.4: Breeding specialist woodland birds in England, 1970 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 3.4 in ods format

Figure 3.5: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for woodland specialist birds in England, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 3.5 in ods format

Notes for Figure 3.4 and 3.5:

1. This indicator includes individual measures for 22 species of woodland specialist birds.
2. Figure 3.4 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
3. Figure 3.5 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
4. Figure 3.5 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Woodland generalists

The majority of generalist woodland species, many of which have adapted to using gardens and wooded areas in farmland landscapes, have not shown a substantial change over the long term. Subsequently the overall woodland generalist index decreased by 10% since 1970. In the short term the woodland generalist index has declined by 12%.

Since 1970, populations of 2 woodland generalist species (bullfinch and song thrush) have declined by more than 50%. Although no species showed a marked annual rate of increase, four species (great tit, long-tailed tit, wren and robin) had increased by more than 50% over this period.

In the short term, 6 out of 12 species decreased: chaffinch by 30%, and bullfinch by 24%. Long-tailed tit, dunnock, blackbird and lesser whitethroat showed weak declines. The remaining woodland generalists showed little change, and no species had increased.

Figure 3.6: Breeding generalist woodland birds in England, 1970 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 3.6 in ods format

Figure 3.7: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for woodland generalist birds in England, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 3.7 in ods format

Notes for Figure 3.6 and 3.7:

1. This indicator includes individual measures for 12 species of woodland generalist birds.
2. Figure 3.6 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
3. Figure 3.7 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
4. Figure 3.7 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

4. Breeding water and wetland bird populations in England

Trend description

Water and wetlands include rivers, lakes, ponds, reedbeds, grazing marshes, other wet grasslands, and lowland raised bogs, all providing important habitats for birds. Species included in the wetland indicator are those defined as having a positive association with waterways or wetlands, but in practice, these overlap markedly with those classified as ‘lowland wetland’ species and also include some upland birds and those also associated with farmland, for example reed bunting and yellow wagtail.

Produced largely using the population trends from surveys in or alongside wetland habitats, the water and wetland bird index has remained fairly stable for most of the period since data collection started in 1975. In 2022 the water and wetland bird index was 3% lower than in 1975. In the short term the index decreased by 8%.

Since 1970, of the 25 species for which a long-term trend can be calculated, 24% of species increased, 48% showed little change and 28% declined, with more species exhibiting a weak rather than a strong change. For little egret, data can only be included from 2004 and therefore a long-term trend could not be calculated (for more information on the time series used for different species long-term trends, see data sets provided alongside this publication).

Over the short-term period, 15% of species increased, 31% showed little change and 54% declined.

Figure 4.1: Breeding water and wetland birds in England, 1975 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 4.1 in ods format

Figure 4.2: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for water and wetland birds in England, 1975 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 4.2 in ods format

Notes for Figure 4.1 and 4.2:

1. This indicator includes individual measures for 26 species of water and wetland birds.
2. Figure 4.1 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
3. Figure 4.2 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
4. Figure 4.2 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.
5. In Figure 4.1 the lower confidence intervals for 1994 and 1995 were un-estimable, this is due to the high uncertainty around the population trend for Snipe which is a scarce species. As a result the lower confidence intervals on the graph abridges the two data points for 1993 and 1996.

Factors affecting water and wetland bird populations

The historical declines in breeding waders resulted from land management changes such as drainage, the intensification of grassland management and the conversion of coastal and floodplain grazing marshes to arable land. Where populations persist in small fragments of high-quality habitat, their nests and young can be vulnerable to predation, which is currently thought to be limiting the recovery of several species of breeding wader. However, a range of species, particularly those associated with standing water bodies, have benefitted from habitat creation, particularly from the restoration of post-extraction gravel pits. Additionally, there has been a net positive impact from improved survival rates due to the trend towards milder winters.

For more information about the evidence for this indicator, see the evidence statement Annex 1.05 Evidence Statement for C5c Wetland Birds.

Species breakdown

The 26 species of bird included in the water and wetland bird index can be split into 4 categories for producing sub-habitat indicators. Although the index for all wetland and waterways species shows a relatively flat trend, this masks underlying and marked differences between sub-habitat indicators (Figure 4.3). When interpreting these trends, it should be borne in mind that each sub-habitat trend is derived from relatively few species’ trends.

Figure 4.3 : Breeding water and wetland birds in England, 1975 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 4.3 in ods format

Notes for Figure 4.3:

1. Figure 4.3 shows the unsmoothed trends (dashed line) and the smoothed trends (solid line) for the 4 sub-habitat indicators of breeding water and wetland birds.

Birds of slow flowing and standing water

Birds of slow flowing and standing water have shown the most positive trend, potentially benefitting most from wetland creation; in 2022 the index was 16% higher than in 1975 (Figure 4.4). However, the index has shown a 15% decrease in the more recent short-term reflecting a negative turn-around in the fortunes of this group in the last decade.

Over the long term there was a marked increase in one species; numbers of breeding mallards have more than doubled. Of the remaining 5 species, 4 showed little change and 1 species (great crested grebe) has declined since it could be monitored, in 1995.

In the short term, 1 species showed little change and 5 species declined. Tufted duck and coot showed strong declines of 20% and 17% respectively.

Figure 4.4: Breeding birds of slow flowing and standing water in England, 1975 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 4.4 in ods format

Figure 4.5: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for birds of slow flowing and standing water in England, 1975 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 4.5 in ods format

Notes for Figure 4.4 and 4.5:

1. This indicator includes individual measures for 6 species for birds of slow flowing and standing water.
2. Figure 4.4 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
3. Figure 4.5 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
4. Figure 4.5 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Birds of fast flowing water

The index for birds of fast flowing water was 23% lower in 2022 than in 1975. Like the overall indicator for breeding wetland and waterways birds, it dipped during 2010 to 2013, although not as low as in the early eighties, and has decreased by 17% in the short term (Figure 4.6). Although all the 4 species which make up this indicator are dependent on food from water, they share another characteristic of being found mainly in upland areas.

Over the long term, the index for common sandpiper has declined by 50%, while numbers of goosander have risen by 76%. The indices for both dipper and grey wagtail showed little change in the long term.

Over the recent short term period, 3 of the 4 species which make up this indicator have declined strongly; common sandpiper by 26%, dipper by 22% and goosander by 15%. The index for grey wagtail showed little change.

Figure 4.6: Breeding birds of fast flowing water in England, 1975 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 4.6 in ods format

Figure 4.7: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for birds of fast flowing water in England, 1975 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 4.7 in ods format

Notes for Figure 4.6 and 4.7:

1. This indicator includes individual measures for 4 species for birds of fast flowing water.
2. Figure 4.6 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
3. Figure 4.7 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
4. Figure 4.7 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Birds of reedbeds

The index for birds of reedbeds it made up of 4 species. In 2022 it was 22% higher than in 1975 (Figure 4.8). In the short term it increased by 6%.

In the long term, reed bunting and sedge warbler have shown weak declines in wetland habitats, of 58% and 48% respectively. In contrast Cetti’s warbler has shown a 9-fold increase since 1988 (when the species exceeded the 300 pair threshold for inclusion in the indicator, following the colonisation of England in 1972).

More recently, in the short-term, reed bunting has shown a modest decline of 11%, whilst sedge warbler has declined by 6%. Reed warbler showed little change and Cetti’s warbler increased strongly, by 27%.

Figure 4.8: Breeding birds of reedbeds in England, 1975 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 4.8 in ods format

Figure 4.9: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for birds of reedbeds in England, 1975 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 4.9 in ods format

Notes for Figure 4.8 and 4.9:

1. This indicator includes individual measures for 4 species for birds of reedbeds.
2. Figure 4.8 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
3. Figure 4.9 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
4. Figure 4.9 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Birds of wet grassland

The index for birds of wet grassland, which is made up of 8 species, was 29% lower in 2022 than in 1975 (Figure 4.10). The majority of the decline, which has been driven by drainage and the loss of habitat, occurred between the peak in the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s. More recently the indicator has levelled off, and declined by 4% in the short term.

Over the long term, although some wildfowl (mute swan and teal) have shown an increase, yellow wagtail (in wetland habitats), snipe and redshank have declined strongly, by 95%, 68% and 63% respectively.

Over the short term, yellow wagtail, albeit already in very low numbers, increased by 28% along waterways. Numbers of lapwing and redshank fell strongly by 34% and 15% respectively. In contrast the indices for snipe, teal and curlew have shown little change. Little egret, a colonist to England during the last few decades included for the first time in 2006 and therefore not assessed over the long-term period, has increased rapidly, by 25% since 2013.

Figure 4.10: Breeding birds of wet grassland in England, 1975 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 4.10 in ods format

Figure 4.11: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for birds of wet grassland in England, 1975 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 4.11 in ods format

Notes for Figure 4.10 and 4.11:

1. This indicator includes individual measures for 8 species for birds of wet grassland.
2. Figure 4.10 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
3. Figure 4.11 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
4. Figure 4.11 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.
5. In Figure 4.10 the lower confidence intervals for 1994 and 1995 were un-estimable, this is due to the high uncertainty around the population trend for Snipe which is a scarce species. As a result the lower confidence intervals on the graph abridges the two data points for 1993 and 1996.

5. Breeding seabird populations in England

Chapter 5 has not been updated due to the collection of the 2020 data for seabirds being affected by COVID-19 restrictions. Also, the Seabird Monitoring Programme (SMP) has recently transferred from the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) to the British Trust for Ornithology (BTO). BTO are planning to publish trends from the SMP later this year. These trends precede the onset of avian flu in Britain’s seabirds and the devastating effects this has had on many species.

Trend description

In the 2020 publication the breeding seabird index was updated with data up to and including 2019. In addition to the annual monitoring scheme SMP, JNCC is working, in association with other partners, on the completion of the next breeding seabird census, Seabirds Count (2015 to 2021) across Britain and Ireland. Regular counts at a sample of colonies provide robust trends, but entire population censuses are also required to add context and help to identify why changes might be happening, as well as to enable the calculation of between-census trends for those seabird species not monitored by the annual sample surveying. Additionally, conducting periodic censuses allows the accuracy of SMP annual monitoring trends to be tested and the opportunity to understand how breeding seabird populations might be changing spatially. This is especially important when considering inland and urban breeding species, which are rarely monitored annually. The seabird figures are presented with unsmoothed confidence intervals. Smoothed trends and assessments of change based on smoothed trends will be calculated subsequently.

The English coast consists of a wide variety of habitats such as sea cliffs, sand dunes, shingle ridges and intertidal areas. The marine habitats used for foraging by this group of birds include coastal lagoons and shallow coastal waters as well as deeper offshore waters throughout the UK. Although inland populations are largely excluded, some species will also exploit terrestrial food sources.

In 2019, the breeding seabird index in England was 11% higher than in 1986. The indicator has increased to the current level between 1986 and about 1992 since when it’s been stable with fluctuations. In the short term, the index increased by 4% between 2013 and 2018.

Between 1986 and 2018, 18% of the seabird species increased, 45% showed little change and 36% declined, the majority of the latter show a weak decline. There are 11 species of bird included in the England seabird indicator. This includes gannet, which has shown a rapidly increasing trend at the only English colony at Bempton Cliffs, Yorkshire, which has had a marked positive effect on the indicator. A breakdown by feeding behaviour (Figure 5.3) shows a 22% decline in seabirds that forage on the surface of the sea (surface piscivores) in contrast with a 168% increase in those that forage by diving (subsurface piscivores). Numbers of herring gull, the European shag, little tern and black-legged kittiwake have all declined by 75%, 53%, 44% and 41% respectively in the long term. In contrast, numbers of common guillemot and gannet show a strong increase; common guillemot numbers have more than doubled and gannet numbers increased 20-fold between 1986 and 2018.

Over the short-term period between 2013 and 2018, 55% of the species increased, 9% showed little change and 36% declined. Sandwich tern, Arctic tern, common tern and gannet all show strong increases between 2013 and 2018. Numbers of little tern, European shag, and herring gull continue to decline strongly, falling more than 15% between 2013 and 2018.

Figure 5.1: Breeding seabirds in England, 1986 to 2019

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 5.1 in ods format

Figure 5.2: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for seabirds in England to, 1986 to 2018

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 5.2 in ods format

Notes for Figure 5.1 & 5.2:

1. This indicator includes individual measures for 11 species of seabird.
2. Figure 5.1 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart. No smoothed trend is available for seabirds, but this will be in future publications.
3. Figure 5.2 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
4. Figure 5.2 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Species breakdown

Figure 5.3: Surface and subsurface feeding seabirds in England, 1986 to 2019

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 5.3 in ods format

Notes for Figure 5.3:

1. The subsurface feeders index includes individual measures for 4 species of seabirds; the surface feeders index includes individual measures for 5 species of seabirds.
2. Figure 5.3 shows the unsmoothed trends for all seabirds, subsurface seabirds and surface feeders (dashed lines).

Factors affecting seabird populations

This measure is focussed on the marine environment. Accordingly, for a number of species (for example, herring gull, great cormorant), the indicator uses data for coastal populations (colonies within 5 km of the coastline) only rather than data from all breeding areas of these species. This focusses the indicator on changes at the coast and in marine waters but means changes in inland populations are not taken into account. Work is currently underway to improve survey coverage of inland colonies so that a trend based on all breeding areas can be included in the ‘all species indicator’.

The seabird index in England continues to show a different pattern to the UK seabird index. One reason for this difference is species composition. Some species breed only in Scotland whereas others are more widespread but have the bulk of their populations in northern parts of the British Isles, and there may be insufficient data to generate an England-only trend. Furthermore, it was also possible to generate an England trend for gannet based on reliable data from a single large colony, but there are insufficient data representative of the UK population to produce a reliable UK trend for this species.

For more information about the evidence for this indicator, see the evidence statement Annex 1.06 Evidence Statement for C5d Seabirds.

6. Wintering waterbird populations in England

Trend description

The term waterbird refers to birds that inhabit or depend on water and wetland habitats; this chapter is about waterbirds that over-winter in England, some of which also breed in England. Not all of the wintering waterbirds in this chapter are included in the all-breeding birds index, only those which also breed in England and for which breeding trends are available. Wintering populations typically originate largely from breeding populations outside the UK and hence they represent completely different populations. In the relevant data sets published alongside this update, those species that overlap are included under both, using the breeding population trend for the all-species indicator and the wintering population trend for the Wintering Waterbird Indicator.

In the winter of 2021/2022, the wintering waterbird index was 88% higher than in the winter of 1975/1976. The index peaked in the late 1990s, and has declined since, with the index falling by 8% between the winters of 2016/2017 and 2021/2022, a short-term change considered enough to be significant (long- and short-term).

Since 1975/1976, 44% of wintering waterbird species increased, 41% showed little change and 15% declined, most of these showing a weak decline.

Over the short-term, 17% of species increased, 34% showed little change and 49% declined.

Figure 6.1: Wintering waterbirds in England, 1975/1976 to 2021/2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), the Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust (WWT), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 6.1 in ods format

Figure 6.2: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for wintering waterbirds in England, 1975/1976 to 2020/2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), the Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust (WWT), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 6.2 in ods format

Notes for Figure 6.1 and 6.2:

1. This indicator includes individual measures for 41 species of wintering waterbird of which 22 are wildfowl species and 15 are wader species.
2. Figure 6.1 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and smoothed trend (solid line). Data from wintering waterbirds monitoring schemes are based largely on full counts at colonies or at wetland and coastal sites of markedly varying size. This means that bootstrapping methods cannot be applied reliably and hence trends for these groups are currently presented without confidence intervals.
3. The number of species in each sub indicator do not sum to the number in the all-species indicator because 4 species are included in all wintering waterbirds but are neither wildfowl nor wader. These are 2 grebes (little and great-crested), one rail species (coot) and cormorant. These are in 3 different taxonomic groups, none large enough to warrant a separate indicator.
4. Figure 6.2 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods. Although the significance of change in species trends cannot be assessed using standard statistical methods, change categories are inferred based on statistical measures of change for species in other indicators.
5. Figure 6.2 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Factors affecting wintering wetland bird populations

Wintering wetland birds are affected by a range of factors including conditions in the high latitude countries where they breed, with breeding productivity increasing for species including black-tailed godwit but decreasing for others such as Greenland white-fronted geese. There is good evidence of a strong climate change impact on the indicator in recent years, with the pattern of milder winters leading to the wintering ranges of many species, including mallard, pintail, goldeneye, pochard, bewick’s swan, ringed plover and bar-tailed godwit, increasingly shifting north and east and away from the UK as more birds are able remain in areas closer to their northern breeding grounds. In addition, local changes, such as wetland creation and changes in agricultural management, have had an impact on wintering waterbird populations within the UK.

For more information about the evidence for this indicator, see the evidence statement Annex 1.07 Evidence Statement for C5e Wintering Waterbirds.

Species breakdown

There are 41 species, races and populations of bird included in the wintering waterbird indicator. These can be split into subcategories of wildfowl (ducks, geese and swans) and waders (sandpipers, plovers and their close relatives) which display slightly different trends. Overall, the wildfowl index has increased considerably by 91% and the wader index has increased by 71% between 1975/1976 and 2021/2022. However, both show more recent declines, having peaked in the late 1990s they have declined between 2016/2017 and 2021/2022, the indices for wildfowl declined by 11% and waders declined by 4%.

Wildfowl

Since 1975/1976, 50% of the wildfowl species increased, 32% showed little change and 18% declined. Notable strong increases included the British/Irish greylag goose, whooper swan, gadwall and the Svalbard light-bellied Brent goose; wintering numbers of which increased by at least 41-fold, 25-fold, 15-fold and 11-fold respectively in the long term. Numbers of wintering Bewick’s swan and scaup have declined most strongly by 87% and 77% respectively since 1975/1976. There were also long-term declines for: European white-fronted goose by 70% and pochard by 50%.

In the short-term, 18% of the wildfowl species increased, 27% showed little change and 55% declined. Notable recent strong declines were: Bewick’s swan by 78%, eider by 23%, dark-bellied Brent goose by 19%, teal, mallard and red-breasted merganser each declining by 17% and wigeon declining by 14%. The indices for Svalbard light-bellied Brent goose and whooper swan showed strong recent increases of 32% and 25% respectively.

Waders

Since 1975/1976, 33% of the wader species increased, 53% showed little change and 13% declined. Wintering numbers of avocet and black-tailed godwit increased by over 12-fold and 8-fold respectively in the long term. In contrast, numbers of ringed plover decreased by 53% and dunlin by 49% since 1975/1976.

In the short-term, 13% of the wader species increased, 47% showed little change and 40% declined. Wintering numbers of bar-tailed godwit, lapwing and golden plover declined by 23%, 17% and 16% respectively but the index for avocet increased by 15% and knot increased slightly by 8%.

Of four species not included in the wildfowl or wader sub-indicators, wintering numbers of little grebe and cormorant have both increased by roughly two-fold since the mid 1980s when monitoring of these species began. In the short term, coot has declined by 15% and great crested grebe by 7% whereas cormorant numbers have increased by 9%.

7. Upland bird populations in England

The upland bird statistics are now being published as official statistics rather than experimental statistics because the methodology used to produce them is now fully developed according to current understanding and science but may incorporate future developments. The data used within the methodology is subject to ongoing review and refinement from time to time.

Trend description

The upland areas in England are comprised mainly of large areas in northern England as well as pockets in the southwest. Largely open and often grazed with livestock, these areas provide the open habitats for waders and specialist moorland birds to breed or forage.

Due to its heavy reliance on the Breeding Bird Survey introduced in 1994, as well as relevant national single species surveys, this indicator covers the period 1994 to 2022.

In 2022, the England upland bird index was 9% lower than 1994. Between 2017 and 2022, the upland bird index declined by 5%.

Since 1994, 18% of the 28 upland species increased, 54% showed little change and 29% declined.

In the short term, 28% of the 25 upland species increased, 24% showed little change and 48% of the upland species decreased. Short-term trends are not available for 3 of the specialist upland species.

Figure 7.1: Upland birds in England, 1994 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 7.1 in ods format

Figure 7.2: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for upland birds in England, 1994 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 7.2 in ods format

Notes for Figures 7.1 and 7.2:

1. This indicator includes individual measures for 28 species of upland birds.
2. Figure 7.1 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
3. Figure 7.2 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
4. Figure 7.2 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Factors affecting upland birds

Upland birds are vulnerable to a number of pressures contributing to the pattern of overall decline, particularly among the upland specialists. England uplands have a long history of intensive sheep grazing, game management and commercial afforestation. Reviews of causes of change have identified changes in grazing pressure, forest expansion, especially by non-native conifers, site-based predator control and climate change effects such as droughts, as some of the major pressures for open-nesting moorland species whereas upland passerines are affected by reductions in vegetation structure and composition. Raptors have benefited from reduced persecution although this still remains a threat. The overall stability in generalist species may reflect a balance between long term negative impacts of land use changes and benefits of climate change as more adaptable species are able to colonise new areas and increase in abundance.

Species breakdown

The 28 species of bird included in the ‘all upland bird index’ can be split into 3 categories: upland specialist, upland riparian and upland generalist. The indicator for upland specialist birds is comprised of the population trends for 12 species characteristic of and found solely in upland, typically open moorland habitats. The indicator for upland riparian species is comprised of the population trends for 4 species strongly associated with upland rivers and streams. The indicator for upland generalist birds is comprised of the population trends for 12 species (for example, Wren, Skylark, Carrion Crow) which are widespread and often common in uplands but also found in other habitats such as lowland farms or woodland. For these species, the population trends used are derived solely from surveys in upland habitat.

The long-term decline of the upland indicator for England has been driven mainly by the decline of those species that are restricted to, or highly dependent on, upland habitats (the ‘specialists’) and species strongly associated with upland rivers and streams (riparian birds). Between 1994 and 2022, the upland specialists index declined by 25%, the upland generalists index increased by 17% and the upland riparian index declined by 21% (see Figure 7.3).

Figure 7.3: Sub-indicators for upland birds in England, 1994 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 7.3 in ods format

Notes for Figure 7.3:

1. This indicator includes individual measures for 28 species of upland bird of which 12 species are upland specialist birds, 12 species are upland generalist birds and 4 species are upland riparian birds.
2. Figure 7.3 shows the unsmoothed (dashed lines) and smoothed (solid lines) indices for all upland birds, upland riparian birds, upland specialist birds and upland generalist birds.

Upland specialist birds

In 2022, the upland specialist index was 25% lower than 1994. Between 2017 and 2022 the index declined by 8%.

Since 1994, 8% of the 12 upland specialist species increased, 50% showed little change and 42% declined. Snipe was the only species to show an increase, increasing by 49%. Numbers of twite and whinchat declined strongly by 72% and 58% respectively.

In the short term, 33% of the 9 upland specialist birds increased, 11% showed little change and 56% declined. Numbers of ring ouzel increased strongly by 24%. In contrast, golden plover, whinchat and raven declined strongly by 31%, 28% and 18% respectively. Short-term trends could not be calculated for 3 of the upland specialist bird species monitored through periodic surveys.

Figure 7.4: Upland specialist birds in England, 1994 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 7.4 in ods format

Figure 7.5: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for upland specialist birds in England, 1994 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 7.5 in ods format

Notes for Figure 7.4 and 7.5:

1. This indicator includes individual measures for 12 species of upland specialist birds.
2. Figure 7.4 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
3. Figure 7.5 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
4. Figure 7.5 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Upland generalist birds

In 2022, the upland generalist index was 17% higher than 1994. Between 2017 and 2022 the index increased by 3%.

Since 1994, 33% of the 12 upland generalist species increased, 50% showed little change and 17% declined. Peregrine and redshank show strong declines of 84% and 57% respectively. Numbers of stonechat increased by nearly 8-fold, red kite by more than 3-fold and oystercatcher by more than 2-fold since 1994.

In the short term, 33% of the 12 upland generalist species increased, 33% showed little change and 33% declined. Numbers of stonechat, cuckoo, red kite and oyster catcher increased strongly in the short-term, by 93%, 17%, 16% and 15% respectively. Numbers of peregrine, redshank, carrion crow and pied wagtail have all declined strongly in the short term, by 56%, 14%, 14% and 13% respectively.

Figure 7.6: Upland generalist birds in England, 1994 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 7.6 in ods format

Figure 7.7: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for upland generalist birds in England, 1994 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 7.7 in ods format

Notes for Figure 7.7:

1. This indicator includes individual measures for 12 species of upland generalist birds.
2. Figure 7.6 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
3. Figure 7.7 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
4. Figure 7.7 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Upland riparian birds

In 2022, the upland riparian birds index was 21% lower than in 1994. Between 2017 and 2022 the index declined by 17%.

Since 1994, 3 of the 4 upland riparian species showed little change, with the remaining species, the common sandpiper, showing a weak decline of 41%.

In the short term, one of the upland riparian species, grey wagtail, showed little change whereas numbers of common sandpiper, dipper and goosander all declined strongly, by 27%, 22% and 17% respectively.

Figure 7.8: Upland riparian birds in England, 1994 to 2022

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 7.8 in ods format

Figure 7.9: Long-term and short-term changes in individual species trends for upland riparian birds in England, 1994 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Download the data for Figure 7.9 in ods format

Notes for Figure 7.8 and 7.9:

1. This indicator includes individual measures for 4 species of upland riparian birds.
2. Figure 7.8 shows the unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and the smoothed trend (solid line) together with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded area on the chart.
3. Figure 7.9 shows the percentage of species within the indicator that have shown a statistically significant increase (strong or weak increase), a statistically significant decrease (strong or weak decline) or no statistically significant change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term assessment periods.
4. Figure 7.9 is presented as a stacked bar chart and the legend is presented in the same order as the stacks in the bar chart.

Main notes: methodological detail, limitations of the indicators and further information

The bird population indices have been compiled in conjunction with the British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC), and the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) from a wide range of sources, principally:

• the Common Birds Census (from 1966 to 2000)
• the BTO/JNCC/RSPB Breeding Bird Survey (from 1994 to 2021)
• the BTO/ Waterways Bird Survey(from 1974 to 2007)
• the BTO/JNCC/RSPB Waterways Breeding Bird Survey with support from the Environment Agency (from 1998 to 2021)
• the BTO/RSPB/JNCC Wetland Bird Survey counts (from 1975/1976 to 2019/2020)
• the WWT Goose & Swan Monitoring Programme in partnership with the JNCC and Scottish Natural Heritage
• the Seabird Monitoring Programme (from 1986)
• the Periodic Seabird censuses supplied by JNCC, RSPB, the Seabird Group, SOTEAG (Shetland Oil Terminal Environmental Advisory Group) and other partners
• Monitoring of scarce and rare breeding birds by the Statutory Conservation Agency and RSPB Annual Breeding Bird Scheme (SCARABBS) and the Rare Breeding Birds Panel (from 1970 to 2018)

1. The census sources provide an indication of the average annual rate of change between censuses for some species, and this is assumed to apply to each year between censuses
2. More information about individual species trends, including photographs and background to the changes in population are available via the BTO website. Some regional analysis is also published as part of the Breeding Bird Survey, including for other constituent countries of the UK. More information about the State of UK birds can be accessed through the RSPB website. Details on the monitoring of scarce and rare breeding birds, including annual reports, can be found on the website of the Rare Breeding Birds Panel.
3. More information on how a smoothed trend was produced when a year of data is missing is in the BTO Research Report ‘Production of smoothed population trends when a year of data is missing’ on BTO’s ‘Bird Indicators’ web page.
4. For more information on the Upland Indicator, see BTO Research Report ‘Upland Indicator Report’ on BTO’s ‘Bird Indicators’ web page.
5. The indices cover birds that are native to England, excluding rare (less than 300 breeding pairs) and introduced species. The indices portray the annual changes in abundance. Within the indices, each species is given equal weighting, and the overall index is the geometric mean of the individual species indices. Individual species populations within the index may be increasing or decreasing, irrespective of the overall index trends. Species indices are derived by modelling count data and estimates are revised when new data or improved methodologies are developed and applied retrospectively to earlier years.
6. The indices are considered to give reliable medium to long-term trends, but strong reliance should not be attached to short term changes from year to year.
7. The individual species included within each indicator are given in the relevant data sets published alongside this update for a list of birds in each group.
8. Smoothing is a standard procedure in the generation and reporting of bird population trends. The smoothing methodology involves the application of a thin plate smoothing spline to remove the short-term peaks and troughs due to weather effects and any between year sampling error. Research by the BTO and RSPB further developed this procedure to enable the production of an indicator based on smoothed individual species’ indices.
9. Bootstrapping, a standard statistical technique, is used to calculate 95% confidence intervals in the indicators and in change over any specified period. The width of the confidence interval for a given indicator is influenced by the number of species in that indicator and the precision of the individual species trends that make up that indicator. The precision of trends varies between species; this is true even for species for which trends come from the same source, due to the variation in sample size. Therefore, the size of confidence intervals varies among habitat indicators.
10. For the farmland bird index, it should be noted that although 20 species were originally chosen for the index, a reliable annual index is not available for barn owl, so that species is excluded.
11. Details of agri-environmental schemes designed to improve environmental management in farming can be found via the following web links:

• For England on the Environmental Stewardship: guidance and forms on the GOV.UK website