National statistics

Port freight quarterly statistics: October to December 2021

Published 16 March 2022

About this release

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When comparing October to December 2021 with October to December 2020 through UK major ports:

• total freight tonnage decreased by less than half a percent to 112.3 million tonnes
• inward tonnage increased by 3% to 73.7 million tonnes
• outward tonnage decreased by 6% to 38.6 million tonnes
• total volume of unitised traffic decreased by 5% to 4.7 million units
• inward units decreased by 6% to 2.5 million units
• outward units decreased by 4% to 2.2 million units

When comparing the rolling year to December 2021 with December 2020 through UK major ports:

• total tonnage increased by 2% to 436.4 million tonnes
• total volume of unitised traffic increased by 2% to 18.3 million units

Detailed final annual statistics for 2021 will be published in summer 2022.

Tonnage traffic has increased in each quarter of 2021, but quarter 4 (October to December) tonnage levels are still 6% below what they were in quarter 4 2019. Unitised traffic has fallen by 7% between 2021 quarter 3 (July to September) and 2021 quarter 4 (October to December), which is consistent with the pre-pandemic seasonal pattern. Units remain substantially below pre-pandemic levels, 15% lower than in quarter 4 (October to December) 2019, reflecting continued lower passenger vehicle numbers. While units are also below quarter 4 (October to December) 2020 levels, the latter may be due to stockpiling during quarter 4 2020 (October to December).

Factors affecting port freight: coronavirus (COVID-19)

These statistics cover a period of government measures introduced to limit the impact and transmission of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. A quarterly timeline of measures that are relevant to port freight traffic is shown in further information and definitions at the bottom of this page.

Coronavirus has had a wide impact on UK society and economic activity since March 2020, with travel restrictions impacting unitised traffic particularly, especially passenger vehicles. Sea passenger volumes over this period are published in the Department for Transport’s (DfT) sea passenger data collection and a detailed COVID-19 timeline is available in the monthly table SPAS0107. The 2 sections below aim to provide an exploratory picture of the impact of coronavirus on port freight traffic since 2020.

Quarterly traffic compared to forecasts

DfT’s port freight traffic forecasts were published in 2019 and therefore provide a pre-pandemic estimation of how port freight traffic was expected to evolve.

The different scenarios shown in the port forecasts were based on key economic drivers, namely OBR GDP forecasts, ONS population projections, fuel projections from the OGA, National Grid and BEIS, and EIA Brent price forecasts. These forecasts presented low, central, and high scenarios from 2017 up to 2050.

The impact of coronavirus on port freight can be estimated by comparing port freight traffic statistics to the port freight forecasts (adjusted as described in the below note on method). The comparison below shows that all 4 quarters of 2020 were lower than levels expected pre-pandemic, with the lowest point reached in the second quarter of 2020 (April to June).

Note on method:

For past years, the annual DfT port freight traffic forecasts were adjusted so that the central scenario is in line with published annual port freight figures. 2020 to 2021 annual figures were scaled up based on the average adjustments made to the previous years. The low and high scenarios were then adjusted to keep the same yearly ratio to the central scenario. This is to adjust for the difference observed between actuals and forecasts for the years where the data has become available since forecasts were calculated.

The annual forecasts were broken down into quarters based on the quarterly trend observed in published port freight data in each year for 2017 to 2019. For 2020 and 2021, an average quarterly trend over previous years was used to apportion the annual forecast. This is so that the comparison of quarters impacted by coronavirus can be made to the proportion of the annual forecasts we would have expected these quarters to represent.

Passenger vehicle numbers were not included in the port freight forecasts but are included in the quarterly port freight data. Published annual figures for passenger vehicles were added to the forecasts for 2017 to 2019. As a pre-pandemic forecast for 2020, 2019 passenger vehicles volumes were used. This is because the recent trend for passenger vehicles has been relatively stable (absolute volumes varying between 5.9 and 5.5 million units since 2012).

The above methodology ensures that the baseline used for 2020 to assess the impact of coronavirus on these quarterly statistics has a comparable scope and reflects known trends since the forecasts were produced.

Quarterly traffic compared to variation of port freight traffic

This analysis puts the fall of port freight volumes since the pandemic into the context of how much port freight traffic usually varies over time. The below graphs show tonnage and unitised quarterly traffic since 2015 plotted against a long-term linear trend estimated from 2009 to 2019 data (grey line). The area shaded in light green represents the range of values within 1 standard deviation from this trend. The area shaded in dark green represents the range of values within 2 standard deviations from the trend.

Up to 2019, unitised traffic has tended to remain within 1 standard deviation from the trend, with a very regular seasonal variation. Tonnage traffic has varied slightly more than unitised traffic over time around the long-term trend and does not follow a very regular seasonal pattern but has remained within the wider range of 2 standard deviations from the trend. As the charts below show, figures for both tonnage and units fell far below historical variability in quarter 2 (April to June) 2020, showing the impact coronavirus and related effects of coronavirus (for example, on the economy) may have had on port freight traffic. In the fourth quarter of 2020 (October to December), tonnage was back within 1 standard deviation of pre-pandemic variability, while unitised traffic was within 2 standard deviations in both the third and fourth quarters. Following a dip in quarter 1 (January to March) 2021, tonnage has again recovered to within 1 standard deviation in quarter 4 (October to December). Throughout the second half of 2021 units have followed the pre-pandemic quarterly pattern, but at a much lower level, fluctuating within and outside of 2 standard deviations below pre-pandemic trends.

Note on method:

To calculate the ranges of standard deviation, the differences between the published quarterly port freight figures and the trend was calculated for each quarter and then squared. The sum of these squared differences, divided by the number of quarters minus 2, gives the expected variance. To obtain the standard deviation, the square root of this variance was performed. This standard deviation was then added and subtracted from the trend to show the range of how much we might expect port traffic to vary over time around the trend.

Further information and definitions

Unitised goods:

Goods which are lifted on or off the vessel in large (20 foot or longer) shipping containers or rolled on or off in one of a variety of self-propelled or towed units are said to be unitised cargoes. For these cargo types, the number of units as well as the weight of goods is recorded. The exception is passenger cars, which don’t carry cargo and therefore we collect only the number of units.

Tonnage:

Gross weight in tonnes, including crates and other packaging. The tare weights of containers, road goods vehicles, trailers and other items of transport equipment (the unloaded weight of the vehicle or equipment itself) are excluded.

Timeline of measures that are relevant to freight traffic:

First quarter: January to March 2020

March 2020:

Foreign and Commonwealth Office advised against all non-essential international travel.

UK lock-down applied.

Second quarter: April to June 2020

Lock-down restrictions started to ease and continued to be gradually reduced throughout the next quarter.

June 2020:

Requirement to self-isolate introduced for persons travelling to the UK from outside the Common Travel Area.

Third quarter: July to September 2020

July 2020:

Introduction of travel corridors, allowing travel into the UK from countries on an exempt list without the need to self-isolate.

August 2020:

Belgium, France and Netherlands removed from the exempt list.

Fourth quarter: October to December 2020

October 2020:

New 3-tier system of restrictions for England introduced.

November 2020:

England lockdown applied

December 2020:

Reduction of the self-isolation period for travellers returning from non-travel corridor countries, from 14 to 10 days.

Introduction of test to release to shorten the self-isolation period for international arrivals.

Varying Christmas travel guidelines across the UK.

Stricter tier 4 restrictions brought in for the South-East, after the discovery of a new variant. In response to this new variant, restrictions were brought in by other countries, that all individuals including freight drivers needed a negative COVID-19 test.

Passenger and accompanied freight travel to France was stopped completely for 2 days, accompanied freight travel was only allowed following this ban with the driver receiving a negative test within the last 72 hours.

First quarter: January to March 2021

National lock-down comes into force on 5 January for the duration of the first quarter of 2021. The UK advised against all international travel unless it is for a permitted exempt reason, with all travel corridors being suspended.

Pre-departure testing requirements for all inbound passengers to England were introduced, with passengers having to take a test up to 3 days before departure and provide evidence of a negative result before they travel. All inbound international passengers required to take 2 mandatory COVID-19 tests on day 2 and 8 of their quarantine with those arriving from red list countries required to quarantine in managed quarantine facilities.

Second quarter: April to June 2021

Non-essential international travel resumed from Monday 17 May 2021, with the introduction of the country traffic light system (red, amber and green lists).

Third quarter: July to September 2021

From 2 August 2021, passengers arriving from amber list countries, and territories, who are fully vaccinated residents in the UK, Europe and US are no longer required to isolate on arrival but must complete mandatory COVID-19 test on or before day 2 after their arrival. Norway and other European countries added to the Government’s Green list for travel on 8th August.

Fourth quarter: October to December 2021 (this release)

October:

A new system of travel with countries identified as on “red list” and “rest of world” was implemented.

Fully vaccinated travellers returning to England from “rest of world” countries (non “red list” countries) can replace day 2 PCR tests with lateral flow tests.

November:

In response to the omicron variant, fully vaccinated travellers returning to England from “rest of world” countries must self-isolate and take a PCR test before the end of day 2 after they arrive in England.

December:

All people aged 12 years and over must also take a PCR or lateral flow test before they travel to England from abroad. Similar rules also came in for travel to the rest of the UK.

In response to the omicron variant being widespread in the UK, all but essential travel from the UK to France was banned by the French Government.

Further information about these statistics is available, including:

• background information on quarterly port freight statistics
• notes and definitions for all port freight statistics

We are trialling this compact HTML format for our quarterly Port Freight releases, and we would like to hear your comments. If you have any feedback on our use of this format, or any questions about this release, please email Maritime Statistics

Please contact Maritime Forecasts if you have any questions about DfT port freight forecasts.

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