Official Statistics

Statistical report: near to real-time suspected suicide surveillance (nRTSSS) for England for the 15 months to July 2024

Updated 31 October 2024

Applies to England

This report contains sensitive content which refers to details on deaths by suspected suicide.

If you are struggling to cope, please call Samaritans for free on 116 123 (UK and the Republic of Ireland) or contact other sources of support, such as those listed on the NHS help for suicidal thoughts webpage. Support is available around the clock, every day of the year, providing a safe place for you, whoever you are and however you are feeling.

If you are a journalist covering a suicide-related issue, please consider following the Samaritans’ media guidelines on the reporting of suicide because of the potentially damaging consequences of irresponsible reporting. In particular, the guidelines advise on terminology and include links to sources of support for anyone affected by the themes in this report.

Main Findings

This report presents data from May 2023 to July 2024. It includes new data collected for July 2024, and revised rates based on updated data for March, May and June 2024. For July 2024, data from 28 out of 39 police force areas (PFAs) and 313 out of 390 reported cases contributed to the monthly rates (all cases were used for the quarterly proportions).  Data shows that:

• there is no statistically significant difference between suspected suicide rates in July 2024 (directly standardised rate (DSR) of 9.6 deaths per 100,000) compared to June 2024 (11.0 per 100,000), with no evidence of a statistically significant change in recent months
• suspected suicide rates in males (15.7 per 100,000) remain higher than females (3.8 per 100,000), both of which remain similar to the rates in the previous months
• the age group with the highest rate of suspected suicide throughout the reporting period is those aged 45 to 64 (12.1 per 100,000 in July 2024), followed by people aged 25 to 44, then those aged 65 and over, with the lowest rate in those aged 10 to 24 (5.9 per 100,000 in July 2024) - there is no evidence of a statistically significant change compared to recent months in any of these age groups
• the most common method type for deaths by suspected suicide in the latest quarter (April to June 2024) remains ‘hanging, suffocation and strangulation’ (54.8%), followed by ‘poisoning’ (21.0%), ‘fall and fracture’ (6.2%), ‘jumping or lying in front of a moving object’ (5.9%), ‘other’ (4.5%), ‘drowning’ (4.3%) and ‘sharp object’ (3.4%)

Note:

This report is based on suspected suicides reported by local police. It complements, but does not replace suicide registration data, based on a coroner’s verdict to confirm cause of death, and reported by the Office of National Statistics (ONS)Suicides in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics. Near real time surveillance is based on date of death, whereas ONS reports on date of registration of death, which can occur up to 2 years after the date of death and on occasion longer.

Introduction

The purpose of the work is to provide an early warning system for indications of changes in trends in suicide through analysis of data on suspected suicide. This data can inform and enable a more timely and targeted prevention response to changing patterns in suspected suicides at a local and national level.

This report draws upon suspected suicide data from across England supplied by local PFAs submitting to the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC) Suicide Prevention Portfolio. The designation ‘suspected suicide’ is provided by the police and the term is used because the cause of death has not yet been confirmed by coroner inquest. When ‘sudden and unexpected’ death occurs, the suspected cause of death is allocated by the attending police officer. There is then a review, based on guidance from the NPCC, before a death is reported as a ‘suspected suicide’.

The report presents data at England level. It includes overall numbers and rates of death by suspected suicide and breaks the data down by age group and sex. This data is presented as monthly DSRs.

The report also includes suspected suicide method, grouped by category. This too has not been confirmed by coroner inquest and should be viewed as provisional. This data is shown as proportions of all suspected suicides and is presented as quarterly figures.  

All data is presented for the most recent available 15 months to enable comparison to the same period in the previous year.

The data outputs from the nRTSSS work programme are primarily for national and local organisations working on suicide prevention.

This report is classified as official statistics in development.

Important to know

To enhance understanding of the report, some important terms and aspects of the work are explained below. Further details on how these terms are defined and used, and on how results were generated, are provided in the methodology section.

Data presented in this report is based on month and year of death occurrence. This differs from ONS suicide statistics which are usually based on date of registration of death. The approach used in this report allows monitoring of monthly and seasonal variation.  

Not all PFAs submit records each month and some PFA submissions are not used in monthly reporting. For records from a PFA to be included, there must be a submission for that month, and it must meet the ‘observed compared to expected’ criteria. This means the number of deaths by suspected suicide are comparable with the number that would be expected, based on recent deaths by suicide for that area (as collected by ONS).  

Data about method is presented by quarter, because the number of method groups would lead to small number suppression if presented monthly. All records received are included in quarterly presentation. The actual number of deaths for each method group are available in the data tables.

Data is presented for a 15 month period to enable comparison to the same months in the previous year. This is because in England there is some evidence of seasonal differences in suicide rates, with higher rates for males between April and June, and for females in the first half of the year.

The monthly data is presented as age DSRs to enable comparison between groups and over time.

Due to relatively small numbers, identified trends in deaths may not have statistical significance. Within this report, where a change is viewed as potentially important, comments are included in the text accompanying the figure.

It is important to note that as rates of death by suicide and suspected suicide vary across the country, while this surveillance is not yet based on all of England, figures will be affected by which PFAs are included. For example, if data from some areas where rates are lower are included, whilst data from other areas with higher rates excluded, the effect will be that the England rates may appear low.

Although report production is based on allowing sufficient time for data to be representative, it must be recognised that recent months are most likely to be missing some cases.

Delayed records will be included within the next possible update.

New in this update

This surveillance report is revised monthly to ensure it is as up to date as possible. Each update includes new data for the most recent time period and any additional delayed records for previously published months.

The October 2024 report includes:

• new data for July 2024 (and the removal of data for April 2023) so that reporting covers the most recent 15 month period
• additional data for the months March, May and June 2024, due to delayed submissions by some PFAs
• recalculated monthly rates and quarterly proportions for the months affected by delayed submissions

Findings

Monthly rates

This section presents monthly rates of death by suspected suicide in England for the period May 2023 to July 2024. The rates are presented as DSRs per 100,000 population.

Monthly rates are presented for:

• persons
• sex as female and male
• age groups as 10 to 24 years, 25 to 44 years, 45 to 64 years, and 65 years and over

Between May 2023 and July 2024 out of 5,388 deaths:

• 4,038 (74.9%) were in males and 1,350 (25.1%) in females
• 532 (9.9%) were in people aged 10 to 24, 2,005 (37.2%) in people aged 25 to 44, 2,064 (38.3%) in people aged 45 to 64, and 787 (14.6%) in people aged 65 and over

In July 2024 out of 313 deaths:

• 248 (79.2%) were in males and 65 (20.8%) in females
• 39 (12.5%) were in people aged 10 to 24, 104 (33.2%) in people aged 25 to 44, 114 (36.4%) in people aged 45 to 64, and 56 (17.9%) in people aged 65 and over

Readers should note that the months May to July are presented for both 2023 and 2024, to allow comparison to the same period in the previous year.  However, the rates for months in 2024 are based on a population with a higher proportion of areas viewed as having ‘low’ suicide rates than the same months in 2023. Any comparison between these months should be made with caution.

Figure 1: suspected suicide rates in England, persons, May 2023 to July 2024

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 1 shows that:

• the DSR for July 2024 is 9.6 deaths per 100,000 population
• July 2024, together with February 2024, has the lowest rate in the reporting period, however this rate is not statistically significantly different to the majority of reported months
• within the reporting period, rates were high in May to July 2023 and in January 2024
• except for a higher rate in January 2024, months from August 2023 onwards show relatively consistent rates

Figure 2: suspected suicide rates in England, males, May 2023 to July 2024

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 2 shows that:

• the DSR for July 2024 is 15.7 deaths per 100,000 males
• the rate for July 2024 is lower than the previous month, June 2024 (17.8), however the difference to this month and the majority of other reported months is not statistically significant
• within the reporting period, rates were high in May to July 2023 and in January 2024
• except for a higher rate in January 2024, months from August 2023 onwards show relatively consistent rates

Figure 3: suspected suicide rates in England, females, May 2023 to July 2024

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 3 shows that:

• the DSR for July 2024 is 3.8 deaths per 100,000 females
• the rate for July 2024 is the lowest rate in the reporting period, however the difference is not statistically significant from the majority of preceding months
• the highest rates seen in the reporting period were in January 2024 (6.6), May 2023 (6.3), and October 2023 (6.2)
• there is some indication of a decreasing trend, however differences are generally not statistically significant and this will be monitored

Figure 4: suspected suicide rates in England, persons aged 10 to 24, May 2023 to July 2024

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 4 shows that:

• the DSR for July 2024 is 5.9 deaths per 100,000 population

• the rate for July 2024 is slightly higher than the previous month, June 2024 (5.6), however the rate is not statistically significantly different compared to other reported months

• within the reporting period, high rates were seen in January 2024 (7.2) and April 2024 (6.7)

Figure 5: suspected suicide rates in England, persons aged 25 to 44, May 2023 to July 2024

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 5 shows that:

• the DSR for July 2024 is 10.4 deaths per 100,000 population
• July 2024 has the lowest rate in the reporting period, however the difference is not statistically significant from the majority of preceding months
• the highest rates in the reporting period were recorded in May to July 2023
• there is some indication of decreasing trend, however differences are generally not statistically significant, and this will be monitored

Figure 6: suspected suicide rates in England, persons aged 45 to 64, May 2023 to July 2024

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 6 shows that:

• the DSR for July 2024 is 12.1 deaths per 100,000 population
• the rate for July 2024 is the second lowest rate in the reporting period after November 2023 (11.4), however the difference is not statistically significant from the majority of preceding months
• within the reporting period the highest rates were seen in May 2023 (17.6), January 2024 (17.0) and June 2023 (16.2)

Figure 7: suspected suicide rates in England, persons aged 65 and over, May 2023 to July 2024

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 7 shows that:

• the DSR for July 2024 is 8.2 deaths per 100,000 population

• the rate for July 2024 is similar to the 2 preceding months, May and June 2024 (both 8.5), and not statistically significantly different from any month in the reporting period

• the highest rates in the reporting period are in July 2023 (9.3), May 2023 (9.1) and January 2024 (8.7)

Method of death by suspected suicide

This section presents quarterly proportions of deaths by suspected suicide in England by method group. The data is for the period quarter 2 (Q2 - April to June) 2023 to Q2 2024.

Between Q2 2023 and Q2 2024, 6,649 suspected suicides were recorded with:

• 1,367 in Q2 2023
• 1,340 in Q3 2023
• 1,306 in Q4 2023
• 1,344 in Q1 2024
• 1,292 in Q2 2024

Data is presented for persons aged 10 and over, using the following method groups:

• hanging, suffocation and strangulation (3,651 deaths)
• poisoning (1,524 deaths)
• fall and fracture (376 deaths)
• jumping or lying in front of a moving object (363 deaths)
• other or unknown (326 deaths)
• drowning (277 deaths)
• sharp object (216 deaths)

Please note that for some deaths more than one method is recorded.

Figure 8: proportion of deaths by suspected suicide method group, in England, persons, Q2 2023 to Q2 2024

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 8 shows that:

• across the 5 quarters presented, the proportions in Q2 (for both 2023 and 2024) are highest for ‘hanging, suffocation and strangulation’, ‘fall and fracture’, and ‘jumping or lying in front of a moving object’
• across the 5 quarters presented, the proportions in Q2 are lowest for ‘poisoning’
• in all reported quarters ‘hanging, suffocation and strangulation’ is the most common method group and it accounts for more than half of all deaths
• ‘poisoning’ is the second highest method group across all quarters and it accounts for over 20% of all deaths
• the method group ‘fall and fracture’ shows some indication of increase between Q4, 2023 (5.1%) and Q2, 2024 (6.2%)
• there is some indication of an increase in the method group ‘jumping or lying in front of a moving object’ between Q3, 2023 (4.6%) and Q2, 2024 (5.9%)
• the method group ‘drowning’ shows an increase across the first 4 quarters of the reporting period, from Q2, 2023 (3.4%) to Q1, 2024 (4.8%)

For some method groups, the quarterly number of deaths by suspected suicide is small and this should be considered when interpreting changes in proportions. The number of deaths by method group and reporting quarter are available in the data tables.

Basis for reporting

Although from the same source, the basis for monthly and quarterly figures in this report are different. This reflects data quality and approach to data presentation.

Monthly reporting is based on the 15 months from May 2023 to July 2024. Reporting for July 2024 is based on data from 28 of 39 PFAs in England. The data points for the 14 months prior to July 2024 are based on between 28 and 32 PFAs.

The PFAs, and the populations within them, that are excluded from monthly reporting, will affect the monthly rates. To help understand this, missing PFAs are categorised as having low, medium or high rates based on historical suicides. Knowing this helps understand if missing data is likely to lead to the reported figures skewing high, low or being broadly representative of England.

For July 2024, missing PFAs accounted for 22.6% of England’s population. Of this population, 5.8% were categorised as low, 9.2% as medium and 7.6% as high. An overview of populations excluded for each month covered in this report is available in the data tables.  

Reporting for July 2024 is based on 313 records. Overall, there were 390 suspected suicide records received. However, due to data quality issues, 77 could not be included. The data points for the 14 months prior to July 2024 are based on between 328 and 441 suspected suicide records, drawn from between 400 and 504 received records. The overall 15 month report is based on 5,388 records.

Reporting for the month July 2024 is based on PFAs that cover 77.4% of the population in England aged 10 and over. The data points for the 14 months prior to July 2024 are based on between 65.0% and 83.4% of this population.

Quarterly reporting is based on the 15 months from April 2023 to June 2024. All PFAs in England submitted some records during that period. However, not all PFAs submitted data every month, and some monthly submissions were likely to be under reporting. Quarterly reporting is based on all records received but it is not based on all suspected suicide cases in England during the period.

Detail on suspected suicide records and proportions of the English population covered for each month are available in the data tables.

Acknowledgement

This report draws upon data from across England supplied by local PFAs submitting to the NPCC. Without their collaboration this work would not have been possible.

Background and further information

This work is supported and enhanced by continuing feedback and input from:

• members of the nRTSSS System Leadership Group
• local suicide prevention teams and police force areas

Responsible statistician:

• Head of Intelligence (Mental Health Intelligence Network, the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID))

Product leads:

• Programme Lead (Mental Health Intelligence Network, OHID)
• Deputy Director (Clinical Epidemiology, OHID)

This report complies with: 

• Samaritans’ media guidelines for reporting suicide
• the code of practice for statistics

For queries relating to this publication please contact mhin@dhsc.gov.uk