Official Statistics

Statistical report: near to real-time suspected suicide surveillance (nRTSSS) for England for the 15 months to January 2024

Updated 25 April 2024

Applies to England

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This report contains sensitive content which refers to details on deaths by suspected suicide.

If you are struggling to cope, please call Samaritans for free on 116 123 (UK and the Republic of Ireland) or contact other sources of support, such as those listed on the NHS help for suicidal thoughts webpage. Support is available around the clock, every day of the year, providing a safe place for you, whoever you are and however you are feeling.

If you are a journalist covering a suicide-related issue, please consider following the Samaritans’ media guidelines on the reporting of suicide because of the potentially damaging consequences of irresponsible reporting. In particular, the guidelines advise on terminology and include links to sources of support for anyone affected by the themes in this report.



This report draws upon suspected suicide data from across England supplied by local police force areas (PFAs) submitting to the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC) Suicide Prevention Portfolio. The data presented in this report is for rapid surveillance. Its purpose is to complement the Office for National Statistics reporting of suicide, which is based on coroner’s verdict, that confirms cause of death, but is not as up to date.

Summary of findings

Data on deaths by suspected suicide in England shows that for the period November 2022 to January 2024:

  • the overall rate is notably high for January 2024 - however, due to relatively small numbers monthly figures are subject to variation and should be viewed in this context

  • for persons, males, and the age groups 10 to 24 and 45 to 64, the rate recorded in January 2024 is the highest in the reporting period

  • when compared to the previous month (December 2023) the rate for January 2024 is significantly higher for persons and males

  • when comparing to the same period in the previous year, for persons, males, females and all 4 age groups, January 2024 is higher than January 2023 - these differences are not statistically significant

  • over the entire period, rates are consistently higher for males and the age groups 25 to 44 and 45 to 64

  • the proportion of deaths for the method group ‘hanging, strangulation and suffocation’ is consistently the highest across all quarters - however, there is a continual decrease across the reporting period

  • the proportion of deaths for method group ‘drowning’ shows a continual increase across the whole reporting period

  • there is some indication of an increasing trend in deaths by suspected suicide where ‘poisoning’ is the recorded method type group

Note: some reported findings are not statistically significant and are based on relatively small numbers - each finding will be monitored.

The above findings should take into account that:

  • reported monthly rates are based on around 70% of England’s population, therefore some caution should be applied when considering these findings - this should be addressed in future reporting

  • the rates reported for January 2024 are based on the same geographies and populations as December 2023

  • a large number of historical records were recently added - though this has improved reporting, some were missing ‘sex’, ‘age’ or ‘method type’ which has impacted the monthly rate breakdown and increased the proportion of ‘method type’ that is presented as ‘other or unknown’

Introduction

The purpose of the work is to provide an early warning system for indications of changes in trends in suicides through analysis of data on suspected suicides. This data can inform and enable a more timely and targeted prevention response to changing patterns in suspected suicides. The data outputs from the near to real-time suspected suicide surveillance (nRTSSS) work programme are primarily for national and local organisations working on suicide prevention.

The designation ‘suspected suicide’ is provided by the police and the term is used because the cause of death has not yet been confirmed by coroner inquest. When ‘sudden and unexpected’ death occurs, the suspected cause of death is allocated by the attending police officer. There is then a review, based on guidance from the NPCC, before a death is reported as a ‘suspected suicide’.

The listed suspected suicide methods presented in this report have also not been confirmed by coroner inquest and should be viewed as provisional.

The report presents data at England level. It includes overall numbers and rates of death by suspected suicide and breaks the data down by age group and sex. This data is presented as monthly directly standardised rates (DSRs).

The report also includes suspected suicide method, grouped by category. This data is shown as proportions of all suspected suicides and is presented as quarterly figures.  

All data is presented for the most recent available 15 months to enable comparison to the same period in the previous year.

This report is classified as official statistics in development.

Important to know

To enhance understanding of the report, some important terms and aspects of the work are explained below. Further details on how these terms are defined and used, and on how results were generated, are provided in the methodology section.

Data presented in this report is based on month and year of death occurrence. This differs from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suicide statistics which are usually based on date of registration of death. The approach used in this report allows monitoring of seasonal variation in trends and is more appropriate for surveillance purposes.  

Not all PFAs submit records each month and some PFA submissions are not used in monthly reporting. For records from a PFA to be included in monthly reporting, there must be a submission for that month, and it must meet the ‘observed compared to expected’ criteria. This means the number of deaths by suspected suicide are compared with the number that would be expected, based on recent deaths by suicide for that area (as collected by ONS). Information on the number of PFAs whose data are included, number of records used in reporting, and detail on the excluded population, is in the ‘Basis for reporting’ section.  

Data about method is presented by quarter, because the number of method groups would lead to small number suppression if presented monthly. All records received are included in quarterly presentation. The actual number of deaths for each method group are available in the data tables.

Data is presented for a 15 month period to enable comparison to the same months in the previous year. This is because in England there is some evidence of seasonal differences in suicide rates, with higher rates for males between April and June, and for females in the first half of the year.

The monthly data is presented as age directly standardised rates, to enable comparison between groups and over time.

Due to relatively small numbers, identified trends in deaths may not have statistical significance. Within this report, where a change is viewed as potentially important, comments are included in the text accompanying figures.

It is important to note that as rates of death by suicide and suspected suicide vary across the country, while this surveillance is not yet based on all of England, figures will be affected by which PFAs are included. For example, if data from areas where rates are lower are included, whilst data from areas with higher rates excluded, the effect will be that the England rates will be lower than if this was reversed.

Although report production is based on allowing sufficient time for most recent data being representative of the population, it must be recognised that the most recent months are most likely to be missing some cases.

Records received late will be included within the next possible update. This means that coverage is likely to improve over time and statistics may be subject to change.

New in this update

This surveillance report is revised monthly to ensure it is as up to date as possible. Each update includes new data for the most recent time period and any additional delayed records for previously published months. Methodological and analytical improvements to the data presented in this report will be added as the official statistic develops.

The April 2024 report includes:

  • new data for January 2024 (and removal of data for October 2022) so that reporting covers the most recent 15 month period

  • additional data for the months June 2023, August 2023, September 2023, October 2023 and December 2023, due to delayed submissions by some PFAs

  • recalculated monthly rates for the months affected by delayed submissions

  • recalculated quarterly proportions by method type for quarters affected by delayed submissions

Findings

Monthly rates

This section presents monthly rates of death by suspected suicide in England for the period November 2022 to January 2024. The rates are presented as directly standardised rates (DSRs). Further details on how DSRs were calculated are available in the methodology section.

Monthly rates are presented for:

  • persons

  • sex as female and male

  • age groups as 10 to 24 years, 25 to 44 years, 45 to 64 years, and 65 years and over

Between November 2022 and January 2024 out of 4,931 deaths:

  • 3,644 (73.9%) were in males and 1,287 (26.1%) in females

  • 473 (9.6%) were in people aged 10 to 24, 1,871 (37.9%) in people aged 25 to 44, 1,869 (37.9%) in people aged 45 to 64, and 718 (14.6%) in people aged 65 and over

In January 2024 out of 388 deaths:

  • 286 (73.7%) were in males and 102 (26.3%) in females

  • 41 (10.6%) were in people aged 10 to 24, 138 (35.6%) in people aged 25 to 44, 156 (40.2%) in people aged 45 to 64, and 53 (13.7%) in people aged 65 and over

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 1 presents monthly rates of death by suspected suicide for persons aged 10 years and over in England for the 15 month period ending January 2024. This figure shows that:

  • the DSR for January 2024 is 13.9 deaths per 100,000 population - this is the highest rate in the reporting period

  • the rate for January 2024 is an increase of 25% and significantly higher than the previous month, December 2023 (10.4), and is significantly higher than 7 out of 14 previous months in the reporting period

  • other than January 2024, rates were also high in the early summer months and October 2023

  • when comparing rates to the same months in the previous year there is a mixed picture: the November rate is similar, the December rate lower in 2023, and the January 2024 rate is 19% higher than January 2023 - these differences are not statistically significant

  • although most months are not significantly different from each other, it is worth noting that in addition to January 2024, the rates in May 2023 and July 2023 are significantly higher than February 2023

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 2 presents monthly rates of deaths by suspected suicide for males aged 10 years and over in England for the 15 month period ending January 2024. This figure shows that:

  • the DSR for January 2024 is 20.9 deaths per 100,000 males - this is the highest rate in the reporting period

  • the rate for January 2024 (20.9) is an increase of 23% and is significantly higher than the previous month, December 2023 (16.0) - it is also significantly higher than February 2023 (14.9)

  • other than January 2024, rates in males are generally highest in the early summer months

  • when comparing rates to the same months in the previous year, November and December rates are slightly lower in 2023, whereas the January 2024 rate is 18% higher than January 2023 - these differences are not statistically significant

  • although most months are not significantly different from each other, it is worth noting that the rates between May and July 2023 are significantly higher than February 2023

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 3 presents monthly rates of deaths by suspected suicide for females aged 10 years and over in England for the 15 month period ending January 2024. This figure shows that:

  • the DSR for January 2024 is 7.2 deaths per 100,000 females, this is higher than the rate recorded in the previous month, December 2023 (5.2) - this difference is not statistically significant

  • the rate for January 2024 (7.2) is the second highest figure in the reporting period. October 2023 has the highest rate (7.4)

  • when comparing rates to the same months in the previous year there is a mixed picture: November is higher in 2023, December is lower in 2023, and the January 2024 rate is 18% higher than January 2023 - these changes are not statistically significant

A comparison of monthly suspected suicide rates in England for males and females between November 2022 and January 2024 shows that:

  • rates are significantly higher for males and this aligns with trends observed for deaths by suicide

  • male rates of suspected suicide are generally around 3 times higher than females

  • males have higher rates in the early summer months - seasonal trends are less apparent for females

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 4 presents monthly rates of death by suspected suicide for persons aged 10 to 24 years in England for the 15 month period ending January 2024. This figure shows:

  • the DSR for January 2024 is 7.4 deaths per 100,000 population - this is the highest rate in the reporting period and higher than the rate recorded in the previous month, December 2023 (5.6), but this difference is not statistically significant

  • other than January 2024, rates are also high in February 2023 (6.4), April 2023 (6.3) and September 2023 (6.1)

  • when comparing rates to the same months in the previous year there is a mixed picture: November is similar, December is slightly lower in 2023, and the January 2024 rate is 32% higher than January 2023 - these changes are not statistically significant

  • although most months are not significantly different from each other, it is worth noting that the rate for January 2024 is significantly higher than May 2023

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 5 presents monthly rates of death by suspected suicide for persons aged 25 to 44 years in England for the 15 month period ending January 2024. This figure shows:

  • the DSR for January 2024 is 17.0 deaths per 100,000 population, this is the fifth highest rate in the reporting period and higher than the rate recorded in the previous month, December 2023 (13.5) - this difference is not statistically significant

  • the highest rate in the reporting period was recorded in October 2023 (17.7) and rates were also higher in the early summer months

  • when comparing rates to the same months in the previous year there is a mixed picture: November is higher in 2023, December slightly lower in 2023, and the January 2024 rate is 21% higher than January 2023 - these differences are not statistically significant

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 6 presents monthly rates of death by suspected suicide for persons aged 45 to 64 years in England for the 15 month period ending January 2024. This figure shows:

  • the DSR for January 2024 is 18.9 deaths per 100,000 population - the highest rate recorded in the reporting period and higher than the rate recorded in the previous month, December 2023 (13.4), though this difference is not statistically significant

  • other than January 2024, rates are also high in May 2023 (17.6) and June 2023 (16.1)

  • when comparing rates to the same months in the previous year, November and December are lower in 2023, whereas the January 2024 rate is 16% higher than January 2023 - these differences are not statistically significant

  • although most months are not significantly different from each other, it is worth noting that the rate for January 2024 and May 2023 are significantly higher than February 2023 and November 2023

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 7 presents monthly rates of death by suspected suicide for persons aged 65 years and over in England for the 15 month period ending January 2024. This figure shows:

  • the DSR for January 2024 is 8.5 deaths per 100,000 population - this is the fourth highest rate recorded in the reporting period and is higher than the rate recorded in the previous month, December 2023 (6.3), though this difference is not statistically significant

  • the highest rates in the reporting period are in July 2023 (9.3), May 2023 (9.1) and October 2023 (8.8)

  • when comparing rates to the same months in the previous year there is a mixed picture: November is higher in 2023, December is lower in 2023, and January 2024 is higher than January 2023 - these differences are not statistically significant

A comparison of monthly suspected suicide rates in England for the 4 age groups between November 2022 and January 2024 shows that:

  • rates are higher in the 25 to 44 and 45 to 64 age groups than in the 10 to 24 and 65 and over age groups - these differences are generally statistically significant

  • for age groups 10 to 24 and 45 to 64, January 2024 shows the highest rate recorded in the reporting period

  • there are indications of higher rates in the early summer months for the age group 25 to 44 - seasonal trends are less apparent for other age groups  

Method of death by suspected suicide

This section presents quarterly proportions of deaths by suspected suicide in England by method type group. The data is for the period quarter 4 (Q4 - October to December) 2022 to Q4 2023.

Between Q4 2022 and Q4 2023, 6,407 suspected suicides were recorded with:

  • 1,250 in Q4 2022

  • 1,221 in Q1 2023

  • 1,367 in Q2 2023

  • 1,342 in Q3 2023

  • 1,227 in Q4 2023

Data is presented for persons aged 10 and over, using the following method type groups:

  • hanging, suffocation and strangulation (3,620 deaths)

  • poisoning (1,440 deaths)

  • fall and fracture (365 deaths)

  • jumping or lying in front of a moving object (337 deaths)

  • other or unknown (316 deaths)

  • drowning (211 deaths)

  • sharp object (192 deaths)

Please note that for some deaths more than one method is recorded.

Figure 8: proportion of deaths by suspected suicide method type, in England, persons, Q4 2022 to Q4 2023

Source: National Police Chiefs’ Council.

Figure 8 presents quarterly proportions of death by suspected suicide method type for persons aged 10 and over in England, between Q4 2022 and Q4 2023. This figure shows that:

  • in all reported quarters hanging, suffocation and strangulation is the most common method type and it accounts for more than half of all deaths - however, this proportion appears to be decreasing over time

  • poisoning is the second highest method type group across all quarters and it accounts for over 20% of all deaths - there is some indication of an increasing trend in deaths by poisoning and this will be monitored

  • drowning shows a continual increase across the quarters reported, with the latest quarter (Q4 2023) at 4.2%, which is an increase from 2.2% in the same period of the previous year - this trend will be monitored

For some method types, the quarterly number of deaths by suspected suicide is small and this should be considered when interpreting changes in proportions. The number of deaths by method type group and reporting quarter are available in the data tables.

Basis for reporting

Although from the same source, the basis for monthly and quarterly figures in this report are different. This reflects data quality and data requirements for the reporting periods, and approach to data presentation.

Monthly reporting is based on the 15 months from November 2022 to January 2024. Reporting for January 2024 is based on data from 30 of 39 PFAs in England. The data points for the 14 months prior to January 2024 are based on between 28 and 32 PFAs.

The PFAs, and the populations within them, that are excluded from monthly reporting will affect the monthly rates. To help understand this, missing PFAs have been categorised as having low, medium or high rates based on historical suicides. Knowing this will help understand if missing data is likely to lead to the reported figures skewing high, low or being broadly representative of England.

For January 2024, missing PFAs accounted for 32.6% of England’s population. Of this population, 16.6% were categorised as low, 11.4% as medium and 4.5% as high. As there is less excluded data from populations likely to have high suspected suicide rates, the reported England rate may appear high. An overview of populations excluded for each month covered in this report is available in the data tables.  

Please note that due to rounding, the proportions of PFAs categorised as low, medium or high might not add up to the overall proportions of the population excluded.

Reporting for January 2024 is based on 388 records. Overall, there were 489 suspected suicide records received. However, due to data quality issues, 101 could not be included. The data points for the 14 months prior to January 2024 are based on between 290 and 371 suspected suicide records, drawn from between 382 and 492 received records. The overall 15 month report is based on 4,931 records.

A number of delayed records from months prior to November 2023 have been added, which enhances the monthly DSR reporting. However, some of these are missing ‘sex’ or ‘age’ which means more records are excluded from reporting of these breakdowns. This data quality issue is being addressed. Reporting for the month January 2024 is based on PFAs that cover 67.4% of the population in England aged 10 and over. The data points for the 14 months prior to January 2024 are based on between 64.8% and 73.5% of this population.

Quarterly reporting is based on the 15 months from October 2022 to December 2023. All PFAs in England submitted some records during that period. However, not all PFAs submitted data every month, and some monthly submissions were likely to be under reporting. Quarterly reporting is based on all records received but it is not based on all suspected suicide cases in England during the period.

A number of historical records have been added to the 5 quarters which enhances reporting. However, some are missing ‘method type’ which means that the proportion of records reported as ‘other or unknown’ has increased. This data quality issue is being addressed.

The fields from the NPCC data used in analysis and reporting are age, gender, date of death, place of death and method.

Detail on suspected suicide records and proportions of the English population covered for each month are available in the data tables.

Acknowledgement

This report draws upon data from across England supplied by local police force areas submitting to the National Police Chiefs’ Council Suicide Prevention Portfolio. Without NPCC’s collaboration and the involvement of every police force in England, this work would not have been possible.

Background and further information

This work is supported and enhanced by continuing feedback and input from:

  • members of the nRTSSS System Leadership Group

  • local systems and police force areas

Responsible statistician:

  • Head of Intelligence (Mental Health Intelligence Network, the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID))

Product leads:

  • Programme Lead (Mental Health Intelligence Network, OHID)

  • Deputy Director (Clinical Epidemiology, OHID)

This report complies with: 

For queries relating to this publication please contact mhin@dhsc.gov.uk

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