UK monthly property transactions commentary
Updated 23 November 2021
© Crown copyright 2021
This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0 except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3 or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: psi@nationalarchives.gov.uk.
Where we have identified any third party copyright information you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned.
This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/monthly-property-transactions-completed-in-the-uk-with-value-40000-or-above/uk-monthly-property-transactions-commentary
UK monthly property transactions statistics notes
Following significant forestalling activity by taxpayers whilst completing UK residential transactions in September 2021, an expected but noticeable decrease has been observed within the provisional statistics for UK residential transactions completed in October 2021.
Forestalling is when advanced action is taken to prevent an anticipated event. For these statistics, forestalling refers to taxpayers completing property transactions earlier to take advantage of government policies. In this case, the ending of the temporarily increased nil rate band for residential Stamp Duty Land Tax from 30 September 2021.
Temporary increases to nil rate bands for UK residential property taxes and the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic have both produced significant uncertainties underlying seasonal trends since around April 2020. Seasonally adjusted statistics should therefore be treated with additional caution.
Headline statistics
The latest UK monthly property transactions data shows that:
- the provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of UK residential transactions in October 2021 is 76,930, 28.2% lower than October 2020 and 52.0% lower than September 2021
- the provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of UK non-residential transactions in October 2021 is 10,160, 10.4% higher than October 2020 and 1.0% higher than September 2021
- the provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of UK residential transactions in October 2021 is 85,090, 30.1% lower than October 2020 and 48.4% lower than September 2021
- the provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of UK non-residential transactions in October 2021 is 10,460, 7.7% higher than October 2020 and 1.7% higher than September 2021
About this release
These HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) National Statistics provide monthly provisional estimates of residential and non-residential property transactions in the UK and its constituent countries.
Statistics are based upon records by HMRC, Revenue Scotland and the Welsh Revenue Authority (WRA) for Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT), Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) and Land Transaction Tax (LTT) respectively.
The latest release was published 09:30 23 November 2021 and was updated with provisional data from completed transactions during October 2021. The next release will be published 09:30 21 December 2021 and will be updated with provisional data from completed transactions during November 2021.
The ‘Monthly property transactions completed in the UK with value of £40,000 or above’ statistical release is Crown Copyright. The information can be used as long as the source is clearly described.
Coronavirus (COVID-19)
During their initial response to the coronavirus pandemic, the UK government announced a UK wide lockdown, including restrictions for the property market, from 23 March 2020. During the summer of 2020, restrictions (including those for the property market) were gradually removed.
Following this first lockdown, the UK government introduced several more regional and national lockdowns in England, the latest of which was between 5 January and 19 July 2021. The housing market in England remained active during these lockdowns. Go to Moving home during coronavirus (COVID-19) for the latest guidance in England.
Public health is the responsibility of devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. This has resulted in differences in the management of coronavirus controls within these nations following the first UK wide lockdown introduced on 23 March 2020.
These differences in national coronavirus controls may affect property transactions patterns within different areas of the UK.
Go to the Scottish Government, Welsh Government and the government in Northern Ireland for the latest coronavirus and home moving guidance within these nations.
Transactions statistics within this release have captured impacts from the coronavirus since around April 2020.
The latest statistics
The latest statistics section provides UK residential and non-residential transactions estimates during the previous 3 years. To demonstrate any underlying trends within the data, seasonally adjusted transactions estimates are also provided alongside non-seasonally adjusted transactions estimates.
Caution is advised when interpreting the latest estimates due to their provisional status. Estimates for the latest month are based upon incomplete data as not all SDLT, LBTT and LTT returns from completed transactions during that month will have been received by HMRC, Revenue Scotland and WRA respectively when figures are compiled.
We therefore expect statistics to be revised in future months, although transactions figures generally settle after approximately 3 months.
Chart 1. Non-seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted UK residential property transactions by month between October 2018 and October 2021, in thousand transactions.
Chart 1 demonstrates the following trends for UK residential transactions:
- after significant forestalling activity by taxpayers was captured within UK residential transactions completed in September 2021 statistics, the non-seasonally adjusted provisional estimate of UK residential transactions completed in October 2021 has decreased by 48.4%
- residential transactions completed in Scotland and Wales during October 2021 do not reflect the level of forestalling observed in England and Northern Ireland, as the equivalent temporarily increased nil rate band policies for LBTT and LTT ended on 31 March 2021 and 30 June 2021 respectively
- impacts from forestalling are particularly evident in England, where the provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of residential transactions completed during October 2021 is 66,830, 33.4% lower than October 2020 and 54.2% lower than September 2021
- following year on year decreases in April and May 2020 of around 50% caused by the coronavirus pandemic, non-seasonally adjusted UK residential transactions gradually increased, before peaking in March, June and September 2021
- between October 2018 and March 2020, UK residential transactions followed a seasonal but stable trend, with higher transactions during summer and autumn months and lower transactions during the remaining months
Chart 2. Non-seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted UK non-residential property transactions by month between October 2018 to October 2021, in thousand transactions.
Chart 2 demonstrates the following trends for UK non-residential transactions:
- the provisional estimate of 10,460 for non-seasonally adjusted UK non-residential transactions in October 2021 is similar to levels reported in recent years, for example October 2019 when transactions were 10,490
- following year on year decreases in April and May 2020 of around 45% caused by economic impacts relating to the coronavirus pandemic, non-residential transactions have followed a generally increasing trend during subsequent months
- between October 2018 and February 2020, UK non-residential transactions had been stable, but had followed a very gradually decreasing trend
UK residential transactions
Residential property refers to buildings used or suitable for use as a dwelling, or in the process of being constructed for use as a dwelling. It also includes the gardens and grounds of dwellings. Go to HMRC Stamp Duty Land Tax Manual for more definitions of residential and non-residential properties.
The following section provides detailed analysis of UK residential transactions. To demonstrate any underlying trends within the data, seasonally adjusted transactions estimates are also provided alongside non-seasonally adjusted transactions estimates.
Chart 3. Year on year comparisons of non-seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted UK residential transactions in October between 2012 and 2021, in thousand transactions.
| Month and year | Non-seasonally adjusted | Seasonally adjusted |
|---|---|---|
| October 2012 | 83,060 | 76,970 |
| October 2013 | 101,920 | 94,860 |
| October 2014 | 114,990 | 100,330 |
| October 2015 | 119,950 | 106,750 |
| October 2016 | 98,070 | 95,540 |
| October 2017 | 107,560 | 101,200 |
| October 2018 | 109,020 | 99,910 |
| October 2019 | 107,100 | 98,500 |
| October 2020 | 121,740 | 107,220 |
| October 2021 [provisional estimates] | 85,090 | 76,930 |
Chart 3 shows that the non-seasonally adjusted provisional estimate for UK residential transactions in October 2021 is the lowest October total since 2012.
This can largely be explained through a 54.2% decrease in England compared to September 2021, when significant forestalling was observed following the ending of the temporarily increased nil rate band for residential SDLT on 30 September 2021
Chart 4: Financial year to date (April to October) comparison of UK residential transactions between the 2012 to 2013 and 2021 to 2022 financial years, in thousand transactions.
| Financial year | Non-seasonally adjusted | Seasonally adjusted |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 to 2013 | 553,470 | 530,840 |
| 2013 to 2014 | 654,660 | 628,460 |
| 2014 to 2015 | 751,070 | 715,360 |
| 2015 to 2016 | 758,740 | 724,590 |
| 2016 to 2017 | 676,270 | 649,850 |
| 2017 to 2018 | 736,890 | 714,630 |
| 2018 to 2019 | 718,990 | 697,260 |
| 2019 to 2020 | 708,280 | 683,750 |
| 2020 to 2021 | 537,430 | 507,420 |
| 2021 to 2022 [provisional estimates] | 868,040 | 842,250 |
Chart 4 shows that the provisional non-seasonally adjusted 2021 to 2022 financial year to date total for UK residential transactions is the highest for this period during the previous 10 financial years, having captured impacts from temporarily increased nil rate bands of SDLT until September 2021 and LTT until June 2021.
Chart 5. Historic non-seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted UK residential property transactions between 2005 and 2021, in thousand transactions.
Chart 5 demonstrates the following trends for UK residential transactions:
- the provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate for UK residential transactions in 2021 quarter 2 of 430,790 is the highest quarter 2 total since the introduction of these statistics in April 2005, and the highest quarterly total since 2007 quarter 3 (442,930)
- quarter 2 of the 2020 calendar year was the lowest quarterly total for UK residential transactions since quarter 1 of 2009, caused by impacts from the coronavirus pandemic
- between May 2013 and March 2020, UK residential transactions followed a seasonal but generally stable trend
- there was a very large peak in March 2016 caused by significantly increased residential transaction completions before the introduction of higher rates for additional properties from April 2016
- there was an unseasonal peak in December 2009 peak caused by the ending of an SDLT holiday at that time
- the fall in transactions from late 2007 coincided with the financial crisis, before which transactions had increased steadily before peaking in mid 2006
UK non-residential transactions
Non-residential property includes, but is not limited to:
- commercial property
- agricultural land
- forests
- any other land or property which is not residential
- 6 or more residential properties bought in a single transaction
- mixed use transactions
The following section provides detailed analysis of UK non-residential transactions. To demonstrate any underlying trends within the data, seasonally adjusted transactions estimates are also provided alongside non-seasonally adjusted transactions estimates.
Chart 6. Year on year comparisons of non-seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted UK non-residential transactions in October between 2012 and 2021, in thousand transactions.
| Month and year | Non-seasonally adjusted | Seasonally adjusted |
|---|---|---|
| October 2012 | 8,480 | 7,960 |
| October 2013 | 9,320 | 8,790 |
| October 2014 | 10,500 | 9,610 |
| October 2015 | 10,720 | 10,250 |
| October 2016 | 9,980 | 10,210 |
| October 2017 | 10,860 | 10,590 |
| October 2018 | 11,290 | 10,500 |
| October 2019 | 10,490 | 9,790 |
| October 2020 | 9,710 | 9,200 |
| October 2021 [provisional estimates] | 10,460 | 10,160 |
Chart 6 shows that the provisional estimate of 10,460 for non-seasonally adjusted UK non-residential transactions in October 2021 is similar to levels reported in recent years, for example October 2019 when transactions were 10,490.
Chart 7: Financial year to date (April to October) comparison of UK non-residential transactions between the 2012 to 2013 and 2021 to 2022 financial years, in thousand transactions.
| Financial year | Non-seasonally adjusted | Seasonally adjusted |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 to 2013 | 56,690 | 56,820 |
| 2013 to 2014 | 60,720 | 60,610 |
| 2014 to 2015 | 66,940 | 66,400 |
| 2015 to 2016 | 69,730 | 69,490 |
| 2016 to 2017 | 73,110 | 73,410 |
| 2017 to 2018 | 73,420 | 74,070 |
| 2018 to 2019 | 73,170 | 73,370 |
| 2019 to 2020 | 70,470 | 70,340 |
| 2020 to 2021 | 52,340 | 52,000 |
| 2021 to 2022 [provisional estimates] | 71,040 | 71,290 |
Chart 7 shows that the provisional non-seasonally adjusted 2021 to 2022 financial year to date total for UK non-residential transactions is similar to levels reported in recent years (excluding 2020 to 2021 when transactions were impacted by the coronavirus pandemic).
Chart 8: Historic non-seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted UK non-residential property transactions between 2005 and 2021, in thousand transactions.
Chart 8 demonstrates the following trends for UK non-residential transactions:
- quarter 2 of the 2020 calendar year was the lowest quarterly total for UK residential transactions since the introduction of Stamp Duty statistics in their current format from 2005, caused by impacts from the coronavirus pandemic
- after following a generally increasing trend from late 2013 to early 2016, UK non-residential transactions had then flattened until the significant decreases during 2020 calendar year quarter 2
- the UK non-residential transactions seasonal pattern generally features a low point at the start of the year with a corresponding peak each March as the financial year ends
- as with UK residential transactions, the 2007 financial crisis triggered a fall in UK non-residential transactions
Contacts
The ‘Monthly property transactions completed in the UK with value with value of £40,000’ or above’ statistical release is produced by the Indirect Tax Receipts Monitoring team as part of the ‘Property transactions in the UK’ collection.
For statistical enquiries, contact:
For media enquiries see HMRC press office.