Official Statistics

Irregular migration to the UK, year ending March 2023

Published 25 May 2023

This is not the latest release. View latest release.

Introduction

This release provides an overview of irregular migrants who come to the UK. This includes those arriving on a small boat across the English Channel (a ‘small boat arrival’), a phenomenon that was rare prior to 2019 but has since increased notably in number, along with some other groups arriving without prior lawful permission.

The statistics presented here relate to the number of people recorded being detected on, or shortly after, arrival to the UK on various routes. They do not provide an indication of the total number of people currently in the UK who have entered the UK via irregular routes or the number of irregular migrants present in the UK. It is not possible to know the exact size of the irregular population currently resident in the UK, nor the total number of people who enter the UK irregularly.

A small boat is only one of a number of irregular methods by which a person may reach the UK border and seek entry without permission. This release provides additional statistics on other irregular modes of entry but not all irregular entries will be recorded and we are not able to provide an estimate for the entirety of the irregular migrant population. Some people may enter the UK on regular routes and their status subsequently become irregular (for example if they overstay their visa). Others may enter through an irregular method and remain undetected or will be detected some time after their arrival. Additionally, other migrants may enter irregularly but gain ‘regular’ status (for example following an application for asylum).

Other migrants may seek to enter the UK without valid permission but be prevented from reaching the UK border (for example, at the juxtaposed controls in France and Belgium, or further afield, if prevented from travelling). Prevented attempts are not counted in this release. Any counts of attempted entries will relate to a number of recorded detections, which may include multiple attempts by the same individual, and therefore will not relate to numbers of persons or indicate an arrival to the UK.

Additional information is provided in the ‘About the statistics’ section, including notes on data quality.

Irregular arrivals

It is not possible to directly compare recorded detections on different methods of entry or add these together to provide a full picture of how many migrants entered the UK without permission. However, some broad trends can be observed.

As shown in Figure 1, while there was an initial increase in small boats detections in 2019, recorded detections on other routes remained relatively stable. Small boat arrivals increased further in 2020 as detections on other routes declined, likely in part due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic making other methods of entry such as air or ferry less viable. However, in 2021 and 2022, there was a substantial increase in the numbers of small boat arrivals. This occurred despite the other entry methods becoming more viable as global COVID-19 restrictions eased.

Figure 1: Detections at the UK border, by method of entry^1,2,3, January 2018 to March 2023

Source: Irregular migration to the UK - Irr_D01

Notes:

1. The chart does not indicate the total number of arrivals, nor is it intended to compare the different modes of arrivals. Different datasets have different levels of coverage which means they are not necessarily comparable. Further details and definitions of each category are provided in the ‘About the statistics’ section.
2. The data includes the number of people recorded as attempting to enter the UK, having been detected on, or within 72 hours of, arrival to the UK. It does not include those prevented from reaching the UK border (for example, those prevented from boarding transportation at their port of embarkation or where their concealment in a vehicle has been detected prior to arrival in the UK).
3. The 2023 data on inadequately documented air arrivals is for January to February 2023 only. Data for March 2023 was unavailable at the time of data extraction.

How many migrants were detected arriving in the UK via small boats?

1. Number of people arriving by small boat

Statistics on small boats include individuals who were detected on arrival to the UK, detected in the Channel and subsequently brought to the UK, and those encountered in the UK who were suspected of having arrived on a small boat. They do not include any persons who arrived on larger vessels (such as on a ferry), those prevented from departing France or intercepted by French authorities and returned to France, or those who arrived in the UK undetected (see the ‘About the statistics’ section for more details).

There were 45,000 people detected arriving by small boats in the year ending March 2023. Fifty-twp per cent of those people arrived in the 3 months of August, September, and October 2022. The month of August 2022 saw the highest number of small boat arrivals (8,631) of any month since data has been collected. The total in the year ending March 2023 was 42% higher than in the year ending March 2022 (see Figure 2).

However, the number of small boat arrivals from January to March 2023 (3,793) was 17% lower than in January to March 2022.

Figure 2: Number of people detected arriving in the UK via small boats per month, January 2021 to March 2023

Source: Irregular migration to the UK summary tables - Irr_02a

There is a seasonal effect on small boat arrivals due to weather conditions. Crossings are generally higher in the warmer summer months. However, in 2021 the number of small boat arrivals peaked in November. Comparisons of arrivals between the same months in different years may be affected by differences in weather conditions.

2. Number of boats and people per boat

There were 1,053 small boats detected arriving in the UK in the year ending March 2023, slightly fewer than the 1,107 in the year ending March 2022, as shown in Figure 3. However, the number of people arriving increased more substantially, meaning there was an increase in the average number of people per boat.

Figure 3: Number of small boats and average number of people per boat detected arriving in the UK, January 2018 to March 2023

Source: Irregular migration to the UK summary tables - Irr_02a

In the year ending March 2023, there was an average of 43 people per small boat. This has increased compared to the year ending March 2022, when there was an average of 29 people per small boat and is much higher than 2020 (13 people per small boat), 2019 (11 people) and 2018 (7 people).

In the year ending March 2023, there was at least one small boat recorded arriving in 2 out of every 5 days (an arrival on 163 of the 365 days). This was similar to the rate in the year ending March 2022 (158 of the 365 days) but higher than the rate in 2020 (130 of the 366 days), and the one every 5 days in 2019 (81 of the 365 days) and less than one arrival every 10 days in 2018 (29 of the 365 days).

3. Nationalities and demographics of arrivals

Numbers in this section exclude those where the nationality and demographic data has not yet been added to the electronic record (labelled as ‘Not currently recorded’ in the data tables).

Overall, males represented 87% of small boat arrivals in the year ending March 2023. This proportion is similar to the proportion of males each year from 2018 to 2021.

Since January 2018, 76% of arrivals have been adult males aged 18 and over. Around one-sixth (16%) have been children aged 17 and under (see table Irr_02c).

Since January 2018, Iranians have comprised 21% of all small boat arrivals. They represented the majority of small boat arrivals in 2018 (80%) and 2019 (66%). However, a greater mix of nationalities have been detected making the crossing since 2020 (see table Irr_02b).

In the year ending March 2023, almost half of small boat arrivals were from 2 nationalities - Albanians (28%) and Afghans (20%), as shown in Figure 4.

Prior to May 2022, Albanians were not commonly detected on small boats. Despite this, they were the top small boat nationality in the year ending March 2023 overall, with 12,094 detected arrivals (compared to 1,049 in the year ending March 2022). In the year ending March 2023, Albanians were most prominent from July to September 2022, accounting for 45% of small boat arrivals in that period. However, as temperatures cooled towards the end of 2022, numbers decreased so that only 9% of small boat arrivals were Albanian (1,099) between October and December. Afghans were the top nationality for small boat arrivals in these 3 months, 33% of arrivals (3,834). In January to March 2023, the proportion of Albanians had decreased to 1% of small boat arrivals (28).

The number of Afghans arriving on small boats has been increasing since summer 2021. There were 8,429 arrivals in the year ending March 2023 (78% of whom arrived between July and December). This compares with 2,466 Afghan arrivals in the year ending March 2022, and 554, 82 and 3 in the 3 preceding years ending in March.

While Afghans were the most common small boat arrival nationality between January and March 2023 (898), this period also saw the highest volumes of Indian nationals arriving by small boat (670) since recording began.

Figure 4: Top nationalities arriving via small boats^1,2,3, January 2021 to March 2023

Source: Irregular migration to the UK - Irr_D01

Notes:

1. The top nationalities are those with the highest number of small boat arrivals since January 2021.
2. Excludes arrivals where information on nationality was not recorded in the dataset.
3. The legend follows the same order and orientation as the stacks within the bars.

4. Asylum claims from small boat arrivals

The majority of small boat arrivals claim asylum. In the year ending March 2023, 90% (40,444 of 44,797 arrivals) had an asylum claim recorded either as a main applicant or dependent, at the time of data extraction. However, small boat arrivals account for less than half (44%) of the total number of people claiming asylum in the UK in the year ending March 2023.

Most asylum claims from small boat arrivals are still awaiting a decision. More recent periods will naturally have a higher proportion of asylum applications awaiting a decision, as less time has passed to allow for applications to be processed. Ninety-three per cent (33,299) of small boat asylum applications in the year ending March 2023, or 78% (57,371) of all small boat asylum applications since 2018, are awaiting a decision. Just over 1% of the small boat arrivals applying for asylum in the year to March 2023 had received an initial decision within the same year.

Table 1: Small boat arrivals applying for asylum and initial decision outcomes on their applications, 2018 to March 2023^1,2,3

	Total to date (2018 to March 2023)	Year ending March 2023
Small boat arrivals	88,221	44,797
Asylum applicants (people)	80,989	40,444
Of which, applications (main applicants only)	73,118	35,988
Applications awaiting a decision	57,371	33,299
Applications withdrawn	3,845	2,185
Applications which received an initial decision (% of applications)	11,902 (16%)	504 (1%)
Of which:
Granted refugee status or other leave (grant rate)	7,643 (64%)	305 (61%)
Refused	1,266	156
Not considered on third country grounds	2,993	43

Notes:

1. Applications awaiting a decision, withdrawn, and which received a decision are a count of applications, not people (meaning they exclude dependents).
2. Applications granted includes grants of refugee status, humanitarian protection and other forms of leave.
3. Grant rate is the percentage of applications that resulted in a grant of protection or some form of leave at initial decision.

Of those small boat arrivals who have received an initial decision (11,902) since 2018, 64% (7,643) were granted refugee status or another type of leave.

The prevalence of asylum claims from small boat arrivals, and the outcomes of those claims, vary across nationalities.

Albanians were the top small boat arriving nationality applying for asylum in the year ending March 2023, making up 26% of total small boat arrivals applying for asylum over that year. Of the 12,451 Albanian small boat arrivals in the year ending March 2023, 85% applied for asylum (10,634 people, relating to 9,487 applications). Of these applications, 1,813 were withdrawn (19%) and 91 have received an initial decision (<1%), with the following outcomes:

• 10% (9) were granted refugee status or another type of leave
• 19% (17) were not considered on third country grounds
• 71% (65) were refused for other reasons

The outcomes for Albanian nationals arriving on small boats may differ markedly from those for Albanians whose asylum cases have been concluded in the main asylum system in recent periods. This is likely due to the different situation and demographics of those cases. Albanian small boat arrivals consist largely of adult men, whereas the recent initial decisions made on Albanian asylum applications and reported in the Home Office quarterly asylum statistics include many more women and children.

Afghans were the second highest small boat arriving nationality applying for asylum in the year ending March 2023, making up 20% of total small boat arrivals applying for asylum over that year. Of the 8,883 Afghan small boat arrivals in the year ending March 2023, 92% applied for asylum (8,153 people, relating to 7,687 applications). Of these applications, 101 were withdrawn (1%) and 143 have received an initial decision (2%), with the following outcomes:

• 97% (139) were granted refugee status or another type of leave
• <1% (1) was not considered on third country grounds
• 2% (3) were refused for other reasons

Total small boat arrivals in this section on asylum claims will differ slightly from the total small boat arrivals cited elsewhere in this publication due to differences in the dates on which data was extracted.

For more details on people applying for asylum, see the ‘How many people do we grant protection to?’ chapter of the Immigration System Statistics quarterly release.

5. Potential victims of modern slavery

Modern slavery includes any form of human trafficking, slavery, servitude or forced labour. Potential victims of modern slavery in the UK are referred to the National Referral Mechanism (NRM). Statistics on modern slavery referrals show the overall number of NRM referrals has been increasing. For more information on NRM referrals, see the ‘About the statistics’ section.

5.1 Small boat arrivals with modern slavery referrals

A small proportion of small boat arrivals are referred to the NRM as potential victims of modern slavery. Of the 88,221 people that arrived in the UK on small boats between 1 January 2018 and 31 March 2023, 8% (7,051 people) were referred to the NRM. Most of these individuals (6,676 or 95%) also had an asylum claim lodged.

NRM referrals can be made at any stage after arrival in the UK. NRM referrals may be triggered by, or occur after, other immigration events (such as detention in preparation for return). Home Office research on modern slavery referrals from immigration detention and prisons (July 2021) reported that the prevalence of NRM referrals from within detention has increased in recent years, especially amongst those detained for third country removal (applicable to small boat arrivals who have travelled via a safe third country). Over half of people detained for third country return in August to December 2020 were referred to the NRM while in detention.

The number of small boat arrivals in each year with NRM referrals is likely to increase over time, particularly for more recent years, as people have more time to be identified (or identify) as a potential victim and be referred into the NRM.

5.2 Outcomes of small boat modern slavery referrals

Individuals referred to the NRM receive decisions on 2 grounds: reasonable grounds; and conclusive grounds.

A positive reasonable grounds decision means the decision-maker believes, based on objective factors but falling short of conclusive proof, that a person is a victim of modern slavery (human trafficking or slavery, servitude, or forced or compulsory labour).

Following a positive reasonable grounds decision, a conclusive grounds decision will be made. A positive conclusive grounds decision indicates that, on the balance of probabilities, there is sufficient information to consider the individual is a victim of modern slavery.

Table 2 shows that most small boat arrivals with NRM referrals have received a reasonable grounds decision, but not yet received a conclusive grounds decision. This is because most reasonable grounds decisions are issued within 5 days of the referral, but conclusive grounds decisions can take considerably longer. More recent periods will naturally have a higher proportion awaiting a conclusive grounds decision, as less time has passed to allow for a decision to be made. Sixty per cent (1,763) of small boat NRM referrals in the year ending March 2023, or 62% (4,369) of all small boat NRM referrals since 2018, are awaiting a conclusive grounds decision.

As shown in Table 2, the majority (81%) of more than 6,000 reasonable grounds decisions for small boat arrivals since 2018 have been positive. Of the 670 conclusive grounds decisions issued, 80% were positive.

Table 2: Outcomes of small boat modern slavery referrals, 2018 to March 2023^1,2,3,4

	Total to date (2018 to March 2023)	Year ending March 2023
Small boat arrivals	88,221	44,797
Arrivals with NRM referrals	7,051	2,940
Reasonable grounds (RG) decisions	6,232	2,498
Positive (%)	5,039 (81%)	1,924 (77%)
Negative (%)	1,193 (19%)	574 (23%)
Awaiting RG decision	395	322
Conclusive grounds (CG) decisions	670	161
Positive (%)	534 (80%)	103 (64%)
Negative (%)	136 (20%)	58 (36%)
Awaiting CG decision	4,369	1,763
Referrals withdrawn / closed	406	113
Awaiting reconsideration	18	7

Notes:

1. The time periods relate to the date of the small boat arrival, not the date of NRM referral or decision. NRM referrals can be made at any stage after arrival into the UK. The number of small boat arrivals in each year with NRM referrals is likely to increase over time as people have more time to be identified and referred into the NRM.
2. Individuals will be counted in multiple groups shown in the table. For example, those who are awaiting, or have received, a conclusive grounds decision will have previously received a positive reasonable grounds decision.
3. Referrals withdrawn / closed includes some cases where contact with the individual has been lost. These may be reopened if the individual makes contact in future.
4. Cases awaiting reconsideration includes both those awaiting a new reasonable grounds decision and those awaiting a new conclusive grounds decision.

5.3 How do NRM referral rates change for different small boats cohorts?

The number of people with an NRM referral may vary within different cohorts of small boat arrivals. For example, table 3 shows that for small boat arrivals with a refused asylum application nearly one-quarter (24%) were referred to the NRM, compared to only 12% of those who had been granted asylum following their claim.

Please note these NRM referrals may have been raised before, during or after the small boat arrival went through the asylum process. Additionally, these figures are based on small numbers and are subject to change as more NRM referrals and initial decisions on asylum applications are made.

Table 3: Small boat NRM referral rate for those with asylum claims, 2018 to March 2023^1,2,3,4,5

Asylum case outcome	Total asylum initial decisions	of which, cases with an NRM referral	NRM referral rate
Grants of Protection and Other leave	7,643	927	12%
Refused	4,259	1,036	24%
Total initial decisions	11,902	1,963	16%
Grant rate	64%	47%

Notes:

1. Includes main applicants only.
2. The small boat NRM referral rate is the percentage of small boat arrivals who received an NRM referral.
3. Grant rate is the percentage of asylum applications that resulted in a grant of protection or some form of leave at initial decision.
4. NRM referrals may have been raised before, during or after the small boat arrival went through the asylum process.
5. Figures are based on small numbers and are subject to change as more NRM referrals and initial decisions on asylum applications are made.

The small boat NRM referral rate varies for different nationalities over the period since 2018. Table 4 shows that for 2018 to March 2023, Albania was the top nationality for NRM referrals, though it did not have the largest proportion of referrals to the NRM. Sudanese and Vietnamese nationals had higher referral rates.

Table 4: Small boat NRM referral rate, for top ten nationalities and total, 2018 to March 2023

Nationality	Small boat arrivals	Small boat NRM referrals	Small boat NRM referral rate
Iran	18,591	783	4%
Albania	13,586	2,009	15%
Iraq	13,261	337	3%
Afghanistan	12,022	304	3%
Syria	6,537	206	3%
Eritrea	5,652	802	14%
Sudan	3,940	993	25%
Vietnam	2,105	692	33%
Egypt	1,858	131	7%
India	1,550	46	3%
Other	9,119	748	8%
Total arrivals	88,221	7,051	8%

In the year ending March 2023, there were 12,451 Albanian small boat arrivals. Albanians were the most common small boat nationality referred to the NRM in this period, accounting for just over half (53%) of total small boat NRM referrals.

Just over one in 8 (13% or 1,572) Albanians who arrived on a small boat in the year ending March 2023 were referred to the NRM in that period. Of the 1,572 Albanians referred, 1,382 had received a reasonable grounds decision (of which 1,121, or 81%, were positive). Of the 1,121 with positive reasonable grounds decisions, 1,009 were awaiting a conclusive grounds decision and 112 had received a conclusive grounds decision (of which 60, or 54%, were positive).

Total small boat arrivals in this section on NRM referrals will differ slightly from the total small boat arrivals cited elsewhere in this publication due to differences in the dates on which data was extracted.

About the statistics

These statistics should not be used to infer the size of the irregular population in the UK, nor the total number of people entering the UK irregularly. For a number of reasons, it is not possible to know the exact size of the irregular population, or the number entering irregularly, and so we have not produced any official estimates for this number.

This is because:

• some irregular migrants will successfully evade border controls and remain in the UK undetected
• some migrants who enter the UK regularly may subsequently become ‘irregular’ migrants – for example if they overstay a visa (it should be noted that there are a number of ways in which a migrant’s departure from the UK may legitimately not be recorded on the system)
• the data sources available count the number of recorded detections - in some instances the same person may be detected multiple times, either on the same route or across different routes (such individuals will be counted multiple times in the statistics)
• some migrants who enter the UK irregularly may subsequently become ‘regular’ migrants – for example following a successful asylum application

Figures on detections may be affected by the levels of operational activity at the border and overseas, so should not be used to infer levels of irregular migration. Changes in detection could be a result of changes in operational activity as well as changes in the number of people attempting to enter the UK irregularly and recording practices.

Small boats

A ‘small boat’ is one of a number of vessels used by individuals who cross the English Channel, with the aim of gaining entry to the UK without a visa or permission to enter – either directly by landing in the UK or having been intercepted at sea by the authorities and brought ashore. The most common small vessels detected making these types of crossings are rigid-hulled inflatable boats (RHIBs), dinghies and kayaks.

The statistics in this release include individuals who:

• are detected on arrival to the UK
• are detected in the Channel by UK authorities and subsequently brought to the UK

These statistics do not include individuals who:

• arrive on larger vessels, such as go-fast craft, yachts, motor cruisers, tugs and fishing vessels – although these are rarely used by irregular migrants at present
• arrive in the UK irregularly on larger vessels not referenced above, including where hidden in a vehicle on a ferry
• are prevented from departing France, or those intercepted by French authorities and returned to France
• arrive in the UK undetected, or where there have been reports of people making the crossing, but no actual encounters

In some instances, particularly during periods of high numbers of arrivals, it can take some time for the full information from an asylum claim to be checked and recorded on case working systems. Data on the total number of small boat arrivals (from 2021 onwards) is derived from manual records collated by Border Force officers. More detailed breakdowns (for example, nationality, sex and age) are derived from case working systems, including the asylum application, which take longer to complete. As a result, data for some periods, particularly more recent periods, may have a number of cases where a full breakdown is not yet available.

On 14 April 2022, the government announced that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) would take operational command of responding to small boat crossings. The MoD published provisional numbers on ‘Migrants detected crossing the English Channel in small boats’, from April 2022 to 30 January 2023.

From 31 January 2023 leadership of small boat operations returned to the Home Office. The Home Office publishes provisional daily and weekly numbers since 1 January 2023 on ‘Migrants detected crossing the English Channel in small boats’. Figures in this release may differ from the provisional daily figures due to more time available for additional information to be recorded and additional quality assurance to be undertaken.

Modern slavery referrals – National Referral Mechanism (NRM)

When referred to the NRM, the Home Office makes a ‘reasonable grounds’ decision on whether an individual could be a victim of modern slavery.

Reasonable grounds decisions are those taken by the competent authorities to determine if there are reasonable grounds to believe, based on objective factors but falling short of conclusive proof, that a person is a victim of modern slavery (human trafficking or slavery, servitude, or forced or compulsory labour).

Adults given a positive reasonable grounds decision can have access to support if they need it. In England and Wales this support includes accommodation, financial support and other material assistance, legal aid and medical treatment while pending a ‘conclusive grounds’ decision on their case. Local authorities support children.

Conclusive grounds decisions are those taken following a positive reasonable grounds decision by the competent authorities as to whether, on the balance of probabilities, there are sufficient grounds to decide that the individual being considered is a victim of modern slavery.

Adults in NRM support in England and Wales who receive a positive conclusive grounds decision receive a minimum of 45 days of ‘move-on’ support. After this they can continue to receive support on a needs-basis until they exit through the Recovery Needs Assessment process. Those with a negative decision receive 9 days of ‘move on’ support as the individual exits NRM support.

The Devolved Administrations in Scotland and Northern Ireland provide support to victims. In Northern Ireland individuals will receive support for at least 45 days while their case is considered. In Scotland, individuals will receive support for 90 days or until a conclusive grounds decision is made, whichever comes sooner. However, in some cases support may be offered beyond the 90 days if a conclusive grounds decision has not yet been made.

For further information, see the National Referral Mechanism statistics collection.

The number of small boat arrivals in each year with NRM referrals is likely to increase over time, particularly for more recent years, as people have more time to be identified (or identify) as a potential victim and be referred into the NRM.

The time periods between NRM statistics collection and these statistics do not align. These statistics relate to the date of arrival into the UK whereas the NRM statistics are based on date of referral into the NRM or date of decision.

Other entry methods

This report also refers to some other modes of irregular entry. Data in these sections is derived from Home Office Management Information. The data is not designed for statistical purposes and should therefore be interpreted with caution.

Each dataset will be subject to a number of unknowns, for example an unknown number of people will evade detection altogether. Additionally, there will be instances where a detection may not be recorded on the system. The extent of these will vary between datasets and as such, it is not possible to compare different datasets, or infer the total number of people attempting to enter irregularly on each route.

Data on inadequately documented air arrivals relates to individuals who intentionally attempt to arrive in the UK via air routes either without adequate documentation or using fraudulent documentation. It does not include passengers who have genuinely made a mistake, lost their documents, or have arrived inadequately documented for reasons outside of their control. It does not include those who were prevented from boarding at their port of embarkation.

Data on recorded detections in the UK relates to detections of individuals outside of the controlled environment of a port, who when encountered are believed by authorities to have evaded border controls to enter the UK irregularly, up to 72 hours before being detected. It includes detections at the ports serviced by the juxtaposed controls (Dover, Cheriton/Longport and St Pancras).

Data on recorded detections at UK ports includes individuals attempting to enter the UK irregularly at ports. It includes, for example, those detected at ports in lorries, and shipping containers. It does not include detections at ports that are serviced by the juxtaposed controls or those prevented from leaving their port of embarkation en route to the UK, such as those detected at the juxtaposed controls.

Data tables

Data referred to here can be found in the following tables:

• Irregular migration summary tables
• Detailed irregular migration datasets