Official Statistics

Irregular migration to the UK, year ending June 2023

Updated 14 November 2023

This is not the latest release. View latest release.

1. Introduction

This release provides an overview of irregular migrants who come to the UK. This includes those arriving on a small boat across the English Channel (a ‘small boat arrival’), a phenomenon that was rare prior to 2019 but has since increased sharply, along with some other groups arriving without prior lawful permission.

The statistics presented here relate to the number of people recorded being detected on, or shortly after, arrival to the UK on various routes. They do not provide an indication of the total number of people currently in the UK who have entered the UK via irregular routes or the number of irregular migrants present in the UK. It is not possible to know the exact size of the irregular population currently resident in the UK, nor the total number of people who enter the UK irregularly.

A small boat is only one of a number of irregular methods by which a person may reach the UK border and seek entry without permission. This release provides additional statistics on other irregular modes of entry but not all irregular entries will be recorded. Some people may enter the UK on regular routes and their status subsequently become irregular (for example, if they overstay their visa). Others may enter through an irregular method and remain undetected or will be detected some time after their arrival. Additionally, other migrants may enter irregularly but gain ‘regular’ status (for example, following an application for asylum).

Other migrants seek to enter the UK without valid permission but are then prevented from reaching the UK border (for example, at the juxtaposed controls in France and Belgium, or further afield, if prevented from travelling). Prevented attempts are not counted in this release.

Any counts of attempted entries will relate to a number of recorded detections, which may include multiple attempts by the same individual, and therefore will not relate to numbers of persons nor indicate an arrival in the UK.

Additional information is provided in the ‘About the statistics’ section, including notes on data quality.

2. Irregular arrivals

It is not advisable to directly compare recorded detections on different methods of entry or to assume that figures provide a full picture of how many migrants entered the UK without permission. This is because levels of undercount may vary for different methods of entry. However, some broad trends can be observed.

In the year ending June 2023, there were 52,530 irregular migrants detected entering the UK, up 17% from the year ending June 2022. 85% of these arrived via small boats.

As shown in Figure 1, small boats have been the predominant recorded method of entry for irregular migrants since 2020, when entries via this route increased rapidly and detections on other routes declined (likely in part due to the COVID-19 pandemic making other methods of entry such as air or ferry less viable). Small boats continue to be the predominant recorded method, despite the other entry methods becoming more viable as global COVID-19 restrictions have eased.

Small boat arrival numbers are particularly subject to seasonal fluctuations during the year due to weather effects, as is evident from the chart.

Figure 1: Detections at the UK border, by method of entry¹, January 2018 to June 2023

Source: Irregular migration to the UK - Irr_D01

Notes:

1. The chart does not indicate the total number of arrivals, nor is it intended to compare the different modes of arrivals. Different datasets have different levels of coverage which means they are not necessarily comparable. Further details and definitions of each category are provided in the ‘About the statistics’ section.

3. How many migrants were detected arriving in the UK via small boats?

Small boats data for June 2023 was incomplete at the time of data compilation. While it has been possible to produce total arrival figures up to the end of June, breakdowns by nationality, asylum and National Referral Mechanism (NRM) information have only been provided to the end of May in the data tables accompanying the release. The data will be included in future releases when available.

Where possible, provisional nationality data published in the Statistics relating to the Illegal Migration Act report has been used to provide commentary on general trends in 2023.

3.1. Number of people arriving by small boat

Statistics on small boats include individuals who were detected on arrival to the UK, detected in the Channel and subsequently brought to the UK, and those encountered in the UK who were suspected of having arrived on a small boat within the previous 72 hours. They do not include any persons who arrived on larger vessels (such as on a ferry), those who arrived in the UK undetected or those prevented from departing France or intercepted by French authorities and returned to France (see the ‘About the statistics’ section for more details).

There were 44,460 people detected arriving by small boats in the year ending June 2023, 26% higher than in the year ending June 2022. However, this increase was concentrated in the first 6 months of the period as arrivals from January to June 2023 were 10% lower than those in the same period of 2022. Just over half (53%) of arrivals in the year ending June 2023 were in the 3 months from August to October 2022. August 2022 saw the highest number of small boat arrivals (8,574) of any month since data has been collected.

Figure 2: Number of people detected arriving in the UK via small boats per month, January 2021 to June 2023

Source: Irregular migration to the UK summary tables - Irr_02a

Small boat crossings are generally higher in the warmer summer months. However, in 2021 the number of small boat arrivals peaked in November partly due to unseasonably good weather. Comparisons of arrivals between the same months in different years may likewise be affected by differences in weather conditions.

3.2. Number of boats and people per boat

1,000 boats were detected arriving to the UK in the year ending June 2023, slightly fewer than the 1,115 in the year ending June 2022. However, the increasing numbers of people per boat means there has been an overall increase in the number of people arriving between the 2 years.

Figure 3: Number of small boats and average number of people per boat detected arriving to the UK, January 2018 to June 2023

Source: Irregular migration to the UK summary tables - Irr_02a

In the year ending June 2023, there was an average of 44 people per small boat. This has increased compared to the year ending June 2022, when there was an average of 32 people per small boat and as Figure 3 shows it is much higher than in 2020 (13 people per small boat), 2019 (11 people) and 2018 (7 people).

Small boats containing irregular migrants have also been arriving more frequently. In the year ending June 2023, there was at least one small boat recorded arriving on 2 out of every 5 days (an arrival on 160 of the 365 days). This was similar to the rate in the year ending June 2022 (157 of the 365 days) but higher than the rate of just over a third of days in 2020 (130 of the 366 days), and the one every 5 days in 2019 (81 of the 365 days) and less than one arrival every 10 days in 2018 (29 of the 365 days).

3.3 Nationalities and demographics of arrivals

Overall, males represented 87% of small boat arrivals in the year ending June 2023. This proportion is similar to the proportion of males each year from 2018 to 2021.

Since January 2018, 75% of small boat arrivals have been adult males aged 18 and over. Around one-sixth (17%) have been children aged 17 and under (see table Irr_02c).

Since January 2018, Iranians have been the most commonly detected nationality making up 21% of all small boat arrivals. They were the top nationality detected in the years 2018 to 2021. However, other nationalities have been appearing in greater numbers since 2020.

In the year ending June 2023, almost half of small boat arrivals were from 2 nationalities - Albanians (26%) and Afghans (21%).

Before summer 2022, Albanians were not commonly detected on small boats, comprising just 3% of all arrivals from 2018 to the end of March 2022. However, between July and September 2022, numbers increased dramatically and 11,238 Albanians were detected arriving during just these 3 months. Numbers then decreased rapidly during the autumn and winter months, beyond the decrease seen in this period for other commonly seen nationalities. Low numbers of Albanian small boat arrivals have continued in 2023.

The number of Afghans arriving on small boats has been increasing since summer 2021. Afghans were the second most common nationality in the last 6 months of 2022 with 6,895 detected arrivals and are the most common nationality in 2023 so far.

There has been an increase in Indian arrivals in 2023, where the majority arrived between January and March (670). The arrivals in those 3 months exceed any calendar year total for Indian nationals arriving by small boats since records began.

Turkish nationals, rarely seen arriving on small boats prior to summer 2022, started arriving in higher volumes in the second half of 2022, and this trend has continued into 2023 with Turkish nationals being one of the top small boat nationalities in 2023 so far.

Figure 4: Top nationalities arriving via small boats, July 2021 to June 2023^1,2,3

Source: Irregular migration to the UK - Irr_D01

Notes:

1. The top nationalities are those with the highest number of small boat arrivals since July 2021.
2. Excludes arrivals where information on nationality was not recorded in the dataset. Note: data on arrivals for June 2023 did not have nationality recorded at the time of publication.
3. The legend follows the same order and orientation as the stacks within the bars.

4. Asylum claims from small boat arrivals

Data for asylum claims from small boat arrivals in June 2023 was not available. Therefore, data for the ‘year ending June 2023’ covers July 2022 to May 2023.

The majority of small boat arrivals claim asylum. In the year ending June 2023, 90% (36,169 of 40,386 arrivals) had an asylum claim recorded either as a main applicant or dependant, at the time of data extraction. Small boat arrivals accounted for over one-third (37%) of the total number of people claiming asylum in the UK in the year ending June 2023.

In the year ending June 2023, 8% of the asylum applications made by small boat arrivals were from UASCs (2,842 out of 36,169 applications). UASC applications from small boat arrivals made up 55% of all UASC applications in the year ending June 2023 (2,842 of 5,186), and 35% of all UASC asylum applications raised between 2018 and June 2023.

Most asylum claims from small boat arrivals are still awaiting a decision. More recent arrivals will naturally have a higher proportion of asylum applications awaiting a decision, as less time has passed to allow for applications to be processed.

88% (28,488) of small boat asylum applications in the year ending June 2023, or 74% (56,745) of all small boat asylum applications since 2018, are awaiting a decision. 11% of asylum applications raised by small boat arrivals were withdrawn in the year ending June 2023 (3,394), the majority of which were withdrawn by Albanians (86%). Only 1% of the small boat arrivals applying for asylum in the year to June 2023 had received an initial decision.

Table 1: Small boat arrivals applying for asylum and initial decision outcomes on their applications, 2018 to June 2023^1,2,3

	Total to date (2018 to June 2023)	Year ending June 2023
Small boat arrivals	91,918	40,386
Asylum applicants (people)	84,637	36,169
Of which, applications (main applicants only)	76,327	32,242
Applications awaiting a decision	56,745	28,488
Applications withdrawn	6,603	3,394
Applications which received an initial decision (% of applications)	12,979 (17%)	360 (1%)
Of which:
Granted refugee status or other leave (grant rate)	8,399 (65%)	176 (49%)
Refused	1,586	184
Not considered on third country grounds	2,994	0

Notes:

1. Applications awaiting a decision, withdrawn, and which received a decision are a count of applications, not people (meaning they exclude dependants).
2. Applications granted includes grants of refugee status, humanitarian protection and other forms of leave.
3. Grant rate is the percentage of applications that resulted in a grant of protection or some form of leave at initial decision, excluding withdrawn applications.

Of those small boat arrivals who have received an initial decision (12,979) since 2018, 65% (8,399) were granted refugee status or another type of leave.

The prevalence of asylum claims from small boat arrivals, and the outcomes of those claims, vary across nationalities.

Albanians were the top small boat arriving nationality applying for asylum in the year ending June 2023, making up 24% of the total over that year. Of the 10,377 Albanian small boat arrivals in the year ending June 2023, 83% had applied for asylum (8,606 people, relating to 7,557 applications). Of these applications, 2,933 were withdrawn (39%) and 101 had received an initial decision (1%). Only 9 applications were granted refugee status or another type of leave.

The outcomes for Albanian nationals arriving on small boats may differ markedly from those for Albanians whose asylum cases have been concluded in the main asylum system in recent periods. This is likely due to the different situation and demographics of those cases. Albanian small boat arrivals consist largely of adult men, whereas the recent initial decisions made on Albanian asylum applications and reported in the Home Office quarterly asylum statistics include many more women and children.

For more details on people applying for asylum, see the ‘How many people do we grant protection to?’ chapter of the Immigration System Statistics quarterly release.

5. Potential victims of modern slavery

Data for small boat arrivals with NRM referrals in June 2023 was not available. Therefore, data for the ‘year ending June 2023’ covers July 2022 to May 2023.

Modern slavery includes any form of human trafficking, slavery, servitude or forced labour. Potential victims of modern slavery in the UK are referred to the National Referral Mechanism (NRM). Statistics on modern slavery referrals show the overall number of NRM referrals has been increasing. For more information on NRM referrals, see the ‘About the statistics’ section.

5.1 Small boat arrivals with modern slavery referrals

A small proportion of small boat arrivals are referred to the NRM as potential victims of modern slavery. Of the 91,918 people that arrived in the UK on small boats between 1 January 2018 and 30 June 2023, fewer than one in 10 (9% or 7,923 people) had been referred to the NRM. Most of these individuals (7,466 or 94%) also had an asylum claim lodged.

NRM referrals can be made at any stage after arrival in the UK. NRM referrals may be triggered by, or occur after, other immigration events (such as detention in preparation for return). Home Office research on modern slavery referrals from immigration detention and prisons (July 2021) reported that the prevalence of NRM referrals from within detention has increased in recent years, especially amongst those detained for third country removal (applicable to small boat arrivals who have travelled via a safe third country). Over half of people detained for third-country return in August to December 2020 were referred to the NRM while in detention.

The number of small boat arrivals in each year with NRM referrals is likely to increase over time, particularly for more recent years, as people have more time to be identified (or identify) as a potential victim and be referred into the NRM.

5.2 Outcomes of small boat modern slavery referrals

Individuals referred to the NRM receive decisions on 2 grounds: reasonable grounds, and conclusive grounds.

A positive reasonable grounds decision means the decision-maker believes, based on objective factors but falling short of conclusive proof, that a person may be a victim of modern slavery (human trafficking or slavery, servitude, or forced or compulsory labour).

Following a positive reasonable grounds decision, a conclusive grounds decision will be made. A positive conclusive grounds decision indicates that, on the balance of probabilities, there is sufficient information to consider the individual is a victim of modern slavery.

Table 2 shows that most small boat arrivals with NRM referrals have received a reasonable grounds decision, but not yet received a conclusive grounds decision. This is because most reasonable grounds decisions are issued within 5 days of the referral, but conclusive grounds decisions can take considerably longer. More recent periods will naturally have a higher proportion awaiting a conclusive grounds decision, as less time has passed to allow for a decision to be made. 43% (1,052) of small boat NRM referrals in the year ending June 2023, or 54% (4,290) of all small boat NRM referrals since 2018, are awaiting a conclusive grounds decision.

As shown in Table 2, the majority (78%) of reasonable grounds decisions for small boat arrivals since 2018 have been positive. Of the 780 conclusive grounds decisions issued, 78% were positive.

Table 2: Outcomes of small boat modern slavery referrals, 2018 to June 2023^1,2,3,4

	Total to date (2018 to June 2023)	Year ending June 2023
Small boat arrivals	91,918	40,386
Arrivals with NRM referrals	7,923	2,470
Reasonable grounds (RG) decisions	6,526	1,764
Positive (%)	5,070 (78%)	1,150 (65%)
Negative (%)	1,456 (22%)	614 (35%)
Awaiting RG decision	896	598
Conclusive grounds (CG) decisions	780	98
Positive (%)	608 (78%)	55 (56%)
Negative (%)	172 (22%)	43 (44%)
Awaiting CG decision	4,290	1,052
Referrals withdrawn / closed	480	100
Awaiting reconsideration	21	8

Notes:

1. The time periods relate to the date of the small boat arrival, not the date of NRM referral or decision. NRM referrals can be made at any stage after arrival into the UK. The number of small boat arrivals in each year with NRM referrals is likely to increase over time as people have more time to be identified and referred into the NRM.
2. Individuals will be counted in multiple groups shown in the table. For example, those who are awaiting, or have received, a conclusive grounds decision will have previously received a positive reasonable grounds decision.
3. Referrals withdrawn / closed includes some cases where contact with the individual has been lost. These may be reopened if the individual makes contact in future.
4. Cases awaiting reconsideration includes both those awaiting a new reasonable grounds decision and those awaiting a new conclusive grounds decision.

5.3 How do NRM referral rates change for different small boats cohorts?

The number of people with an NRM referral may vary within different cohorts of small boat arrivals. For example, Table 3 shows that for small boat arrivals with a refused asylum application nearly one quarter (22%) were referred to the NRM, compared to 12% of those who had been granted asylum following their claim.

Please note these NRM referrals may have been raised before, during or after the person went through the asylum process. Additionally, these figures are based on small numbers and are subject to change as more NRM referrals and initial decisions on asylum applications are made.

Table 3: Small boat NRM referral rate for those with asylum claims, 2018 to June 2023^1,2,3,4,5

Asylum case outcome	Total asylum initial decisions	of which, cases with an NRM referral	NRM referral rate
Grants of Protection and Other leave	8,969	1,065	12%
Refused	5,270	1,142	22%
Total initial decisions	14,239	2,207	15%
Grant rate	63%	48%

Notes:

1. Includes main applicants only.
2. The small boat NRM referral rate is the percentage of small boat arrivals who received an NRM referral.
3. Grant rate is the percentage of asylum applications that resulted in a grant of protection or some form of leave at initial decision.
4. NRM referrals may have been raised before, during or after the small boat arrival went through the asylum process.
5. Figures are based on small numbers and are subject to change as more NRM referrals and initial decisions on asylum applications are made.

The small boat NRM referral rate varies for different nationalities. Table 4 shows that since 2018, Albania had the highest number of NRM referrals, though proportionally Sudanese and Vietnamese nationals had higher referral rates.

Table 4: Small boat NRM referral rate, for top 10 arrival nationalities, 2018 to June 2023

Nationality	Small boat arrivals	Small boat NRM referrals	Small boat NRM referral rate
Iran	18,975	817	4%
Albania	13,706	2,274	17%
Iraq	13,582	367	3%
Afghanistan	12,599	346	3%
Syria	6,846	237	3%
Eritrea	6,033	913	15%
Sudan	4,177	1,128	27%
Vietnam	2,337	773	33%
Egypt	2,058	168	8%
India	1,746	64	4%
Other	9,859	836	9%
Total arrivals	91,918	7,923	9%

In the year ending June 2023, there were 10,377 Albanian small boat arrivals. Albanians were the most common small boat nationality referred to the NRM in this period, accounting for just under half (49%) of total small boat NRM referrals.

Just over 1 in 9 (12% or 1,220) Albanians who arrived on a small boat in the year ending June 2023 were referred to the NRM in that period. Of the 1,220 Albanians referred, 938 had received a reasonable grounds decision (of which 681, or 73%, were positive). Of the 681 with positive reasonable grounds decisions, 599 were awaiting a conclusive grounds decision and 82 had received a conclusive grounds decision (of which 45, or 55%, were positive).

6. About the statistics

These statistics should not be used to infer the size of the irregular population in the UK, nor the total number of people entering the UK irregularly. For a number of reasons, it is not possible to know the exact size of the irregular population, or the number entering irregularly, and so we have not produced any official estimates for this number.

This is because:

• some irregular migrants will successfully evade border controls and remain in the UK undetected
• some migrants who enter the UK regularly may subsequently become ‘irregular’ migrants – for example, if they overstay a visa (it should be noted that there are a number of ways in which a migrant’s departure from the UK may legitimately not be recorded on the system)
• the data sources available count the number of recorded detections - in some instances the same person may be detected multiple times, either on the same route or across different routes (such individuals will be counted multiple times in the statistics)
• some migrants who enter the UK irregularly may subsequently become ‘regular’ migrants – for example, following a successful asylum application

Figures on detections may be affected by the levels of operational activity at the border and overseas, so should not be used to infer levels of irregular migration. Changes in detection could be a result of changes in operational activity as well as changes in the number of people attempting to enter the UK irregularly and recording practices.

Data on detections includes the number of people recorded as attempting to enter the UK, having been detected on, or within 72 hours of, arrival to the UK. It does not include those prevented from reaching the UK border (for example, those prevented from boarding transportation at their port of embarkation or where their concealment in a vehicle has been detected prior to arrival in the UK).

6.1 Small boats

A ‘small boat’ is one of a number of vessels used by individuals who cross the English Channel, with the aim of gaining entry to the UK without a visa or permission to enter – either directly by landing in the UK or having been intercepted at sea by the authorities and brought ashore. The most common small vessels detected making these types of crossings are rigid-hulled inflatable boats (RHIBs), dinghies and kayaks.

The statistics in this release include individuals who:

• are detected on arrival to the UK
• are detected in the Channel by UK authorities and subsequently brought to the UK

These statistics do not include individuals who:

• arrive on larger vessels, such as go-fast craft, yachts, motor cruisers, tugs and fishing vessels – although these are rarely used by irregular migrants at present
• arrive in the UK irregularly on larger vessels not referenced above, including where hidden in a vehicle on a ferry
• are prevented from departing France, or those intercepted by French authorities and returned to France
• arrive in the UK undetected, or where there have been reports of people making the crossing, but no actual encounters

In some instances, particularly during periods of high numbers of arrivals, it can take some time for the full information from an asylum claim to be checked and recorded on case working systems. Data on the total number of small boat arrivals (from 2021 onwards) is derived from manual records collated by Border Force officers. More detailed breakdowns (for example, nationality, sex and age) are derived from case working systems, including the asylum application, which take longer to complete. As a result, data for some periods, particularly more recent periods, may have a number of cases where a full breakdown is not yet available.

On 14 April 2022, the government announced that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) would take operational command of responding to small boat crossings. The MoD published provisional numbers on ‘Migrants detected crossing the English Channel in small boats’, from April 2022 to 30 January 2023.

From 31 January 2023 leadership of small boat operations returned to the Home Office. The Home Office publishes provisional daily and weekly numbers since 1 January 2023 on ‘Migrants detected crossing the English Channel in small boats’. Figures in this release may differ from the provisional daily figures due to more time available for additional information to be recorded and additional quality assurance to be undertaken.

6.2 Modern slavery referrals – National Referral Mechanism (NRM)

When referred to the NRM, the Home Office makes a ‘reasonable grounds’ decision on whether an individual could be a victim of modern slavery.

Reasonable grounds decisions are those taken by the competent authorities to determine if there are reasonable grounds to believe, based on objective factors but falling short of conclusive proof, that a person is a victim of modern slavery (human trafficking or slavery, servitude, or forced or compulsory labour).

Adults given a positive reasonable grounds decision can have access to support if they need it. In England and Wales this support includes accommodation, financial support and other material assistance, legal aid and medical treatment while pending a ‘conclusive grounds’ decision on their case. Local authorities support children.

Conclusive grounds decisions are those taken following a positive reasonable grounds decision by the competent authorities as to whether, on the balance of probabilities, there are sufficient grounds to decide that the individual being considered is a victim of modern slavery.

Adults in NRM support in England and Wales who receive a positive conclusive grounds decision receive a minimum of 45 days of ‘move-on’ support. After this they can continue to receive support on a needs-basis until they exit through the Recovery Needs Assessment process. Those with a negative decision receive 9 days of ‘move on’ support as the individual exits NRM support.

The Devolved Administrations in Scotland and Northern Ireland provide support to victims. In Northern Ireland individuals will receive support for at least 45 days while their case is considered. In Scotland, individuals will receive support for 90 days or until a conclusive grounds decision is made, whichever comes sooner. However, in some cases support may be offered beyond the 90 days if a conclusive grounds decision has not yet been made.

For further information, see the National Referral Mechanism statistics collection.

The number of small boat arrivals in each year with NRM referrals is likely to increase over time, particularly for more recent years, as people have more time to be identified (or identify) as a potential victim and be referred into the NRM.

The time periods between National Referral Mechanism statistics collection and these statistics do not align. These statistics relate to the date of arrival into the UK whereas the NRM statistics are based on date of referral into the NRM or date of decision.

6.3 Other entry methods

This report also refers to some other modes of irregular entry. Data in these sections is derived from Home Office Management Information. The data is not designed for statistical purposes and should therefore be interpreted with caution.

Each dataset will be subject to a number of unknowns, for example, an unknown number of people will evade detection altogether. Additionally, there will be instances where a detection may not be recorded on the system. The extent of these will vary between datasets and as such, it is not possible to compare different datasets, or infer the total number of people attempting to enter irregularly on each route.

Data on inadequately documented air arrivals relates to individuals who intentionally attempt to arrive in the UK via air routes either without adequate documentation or using fraudulent documentation. It does not include passengers who have genuinely made a mistake, lost their documents, or have arrived inadequately documented for reasons outside of their control. It does not include those who were prevented from boarding at their port of embarkation.

Data on recorded detections in the UK relates to detections of individuals outside of the controlled environment of a port, who when encountered are believed by authorities to have evaded border controls to enter the UK irregularly, up to 72 hours before being detected. It includes detections at the ports serviced by the juxtaposed controls (Dover, Cheriton/Longport and St Pancras).

Data on recorded detections at UK ports includes individuals attempting to enter the UK irregularly at ports. It includes, for example, those detected at ports in lorries, and shipping containers. It does not include detections at ports that are serviced by the juxtaposed controls or those prevented from leaving their port of embarkation en route to the UK, such as those detected at the juxtaposed controls.

7. Data tables

Data referred to here can be found in the following tables:

• Irregular migration summary tables
• Detailed irregular migration datasets