Research and analysis

Winter health watch summary: 16 November 2017

Updated 29 March 2018

1. Summary

1.1 Cold alert

All regions are currently at Level 1 (winter preparedness and action). Temperatures or weather conditions are not expected to reach cold weather alert threshold criteria until further notice.

1.2 Flu

During week 45 (ending 12 November 2017), influenza activity was low across all surveillance systems and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity continues to increase.

1.3 Syndromic surveillance

During week 45, there were further small increases in bronchitis or bronchiolitis consultations (ED and GP OOH) and difficulty breathing calls (NHS 111) in infants aged under 1 year, in line with recent increases in laboratory reports for RSV.

1.4 Norovirus

Reports of suspected and confirmed outbreaks of norovirus in hospitals in England are currently at lower levels than in previous years (2009 to 2016).

Since week 27 in 2017, there have been 1003 laboratory reports of norovirus in England and Wales. This is 14% lower than the average number for the same period in the previous 5 seasons from season 2012 to 2013 to season 2016 to 2017 (1164).

1.5 Rotavirus

Since week 27 in 2017, there have been 433 laboratory reports of rotavirus in England and Wales. This is 45% lower than the average for the period after vaccine was introduced - 2013 to 2014 until 2016 to 2017 (784).

Following the introduction of the rotavirus vaccine into the routine childhood immunisation schedule in July 2013, the total number of laboratory-confirmed rotavirus infections each season has remained low compared to the pre-vaccine period.

1.6 All-cause mortality

In week 45 in 2017, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death was seen through the EuroMOMO algorithm in England overall or by age group.

Throughout the winter, local weekly flu and infectious intestinal disease bulletins are available from the relevant PHE Field Epidemiology Team. The contact details are:

East Midlands: FES.EM@phe.gov.uk

East of England: EFEU@phe.gov.uk

London: FES.SEaL@phe.gov.uk

North East: FES.NorthEast@phe.gov.uk

North West: FES.NorthWest@phe.gov.uk

South East: FES.SEaL@phe.gov.uk

South West: FES.SouthWest@phe.gov.uk

West Midlands: FES.WestMidlands@phe.gov.uk

Yorkshire and Humber: YHFES@phe.gov.uk

2. Surveillance reports updated weekly

PHE syndromic surveillance page

PHE national seasonal influenza report

PHE norovirus and rotavirus: summary of surveillance

PHE weekly all-cause mortality surveillance

3. Further information

NHS Choices winter website

Met Office Get Ready for Winter

Keep warm keep well: information for over 60s, low income families and people living with a disability

4. Planning resources

Cold weather plan for England

Annual flu programme