Research and analysis

Winter health watch summary: 7 January 2016

Published 31 March 2016

1. Summary

1.1 Cold Weather alert

A level 2 cold weather alert ‘Alert and readiness’ was in place for North East England, North West England, and Yorkshire and Humber between Friday 20 November and Monday 23 November. All other regions remain at level 1 ‘Winter preparedness and action’ since 1 November 2015.

1.2 Flu

In week 53 2015 (ending 03 January 2016), allowing for Christmas reporting breaks, across surveillance schemes, influenza activity increased for several indicators, including GP ILI consultation rates, proportion of laboratory samples positive for influenza and influenza admissions to hospitals and ICU. There is an indication that the influenza season has started.

1.3 Syndromic surveillance

During week 53, there was an increase in lower respiratory tract infections in adults over 65 years, though they continue to be within seasonally expected levels.

1.4 Norovirus

The number of laboratory reports of norovirus in this season (since week 27 2015) is 1676. This is 38% lower than the average number for the same period in the previous 5 seasons from 2010 and 2011 to 2014 and 2015 (2698), and 74% lower than the same weeks last season. Reports of outbreaks of diarrhoea and vomiting in hospitals continue to be reported but at lower levels than in previous years.

1.5 Rotavirus

The level of rotavirus laboratory reporting is currently at similar levels to previous years. The level of laboratory reports is 14% lower compared to the 10 season average (from season 2003 and 2004 to season 2012 and 2013).

1.6 All-cause mortality

Up to week 50 2015, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death was seen in England.

2. Surveillance reports updated weekly

PHE syndromic surveillance page

PHE national seasonal influenza report

PHE norovirus and rotavirus: summary of surveillance

PHE weekly all-cause mortality surveillance

3. Further information

NHS Choices winter website

Met Office Get Ready for Winter

Keep warm keep well: information for over 60s, low income families and people living with a disability

4. Planning resources

Cold weather plan for England

Annual flu programme