Research and analysis

Winter health watch summary: 24 December 2015

Published 31 March 2016

1. Summary

1.1 Cold weather alert

A level 2 cold weather alert ‘Alert and readiness’ was in place for North East England, North West England, and Yorkshire and Humber between Friday 20 November and Monday 23 November.

All other regions have remained at level 1 ‘Winter preparedness and action’ since 1 November 2015.

1.2 Flu

Influenza activity remains at low levels in week 51 (ending 13 December 2015).

1.3 Syndromic surveillance

During week 51 there were further decreases in bronchitis indicators, particularly in infants aged <1 year across, all syndromic surveillance systems. These decreases may signal that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity has peaked, although is still circulating. Consultations for influenza-like illness remain low for the time of year.

1.4 Norovirus

The number of laboratory reports of norovirus in this season (since week 27 2015) is 1468. This is 34% lower than the average number for the same period in the previous 5 seasons 2010 and 2011, to 2014 and 2015 (2221), and 72% lower than the same weeks last season.

Reports of outbreaks of diarrhoea and vomiting in hospitals continue to be reported but at lower levels than in previous years.

1.5 Rotavirus

The level of rotavirus laboratory reporting is currently at similar levels to previous years. The level of Laboratory reports is 8% lower compared to the ten season average (from season 2003 and 2004 to season 2012 and 2013).

All-cause mortality

Up to week 50 2015, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death was seen through the EuroMoMo algorithm in England.

The next update for all-cause mortality will be week 1 of 2016.

2. Surveillance reports updated weekly

PHE syndromic surveillance page

PHE national seasonal influenza report

PHE norovirus and rotavirus: summary of surveillance

PHE weekly all-cause mortality surveillance

3. Further information

NHS Choices winter website

Met Office Get Ready for Winter

Keep warm keep well: information for over 60s, low income families and people living with a disability

4. Planning resources

Cold weather plan for England

Annual flu programme