Research and analysis

Winter health watch summary: 17 March 2016

Published 31 March 2016

1. Summary

1.1 Cold Weather alert

All regions are currently at Level 1 – Winter Preparedness and Action.

1.2 Flu

In week 10 2016 (ending 13 March 2016), influenza circulation with mainly A(H1N1)pdm09 continues with indicators stable across surveillance schemes, including the number of influenza admissions to hospitals and intensive care units. A further increase in influenza B circulation has been noted this week.

1.3 Syndromic surveillance

Respiratory indicators for influenza-like illness have risen during week 10 2016, with the highest rates in the 15 to 44 years age group. Pharyngitis and scarlet fever GP consultations in children have risen during week 10 2016.

1.4 Norovirus

The number of laboratory reports of norovirus in this season (since week 27 2015) is 2972. This is 39% lower than the average number for the same period in the 5 seasons from season 2010 and 2011 to season 2014 and 2015 (4909), and 34% lower than the same weeks last season. Reports of outbreaks of diarrhoea and vomiting in hospitals continue to be reported but at lower levels than in previous years.

1.5 Rotavirus

The number of laboratory reports of rotavirus in this season (since week 27 2015) is 1359. This is 74% lower than the 10 season average for the same period in the seasons 2003 and 2004 to 2012 and 2013 (5174). Rotavirus laboratory reports are currently lower than previous years.

1.6 All-cause mortality

Excess mortality was seen in the 15 to 64 year olds in England in week 10 2016. So far this season in England, excess mortality has been noted in the 15 to 64 year olds from week 52 2015 to week 3 2016 and week 5 2016 to week 10 2016, in 5 to 14 year olds in week 51 2015 and in under 5 year olds in weeks 51 2015 and 5 2016.

2. Surveillance reports updated weekly

PHE syndromic surveillance page

PHE national seasonal influenza report

PHE norovirus and rotavirus: summary of surveillance

PHE weekly all-cause mortality surveillance

3. Further information

NHS Choices winter website

Met Office Get Ready for Winter

Keep warm keep well: information for over 60s, low income families and people living with a disability

4. Planning resources

Cold weather plan for England

Annual flu programme