Research and analysis

Winter health watch summary: 1 December 2016

Published 30 March 2017

1. Summary

1.1 Cold Alert

Southeast and southwest England are currently at a level 2 cold weather alert. All regions excluding London have been at level 2 alert in the period since 28 November and are now at level 1.

Prior level 2 cold weather alerts have been in place this season from 8 to 9 November, 18 to 21 November and 24 to 26 November.

1.2 Flu

During week 47 (ending 27 November 2016), influenza activity is at low levels and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) continues to circulate.

1.3 Syndromic Surveillance

There were further increases in seasonal respiratory conditions during week 47. Indicators of influenza, including GP consultations for influenza-like illness remain stable at low levels.

There were decreases in vomiting and gastroenteritis during week 47 however they remain above seasonally expected levels.

1.4 Norovirus

Reports of suspected and confirmed outbreaks of norovirus in hospitals continue to be reported at similar levels to previous years. The number of laboratory reports of norovirus in this season* (since week 27 2016) is 1495. This is 6% higher than the average number for the same period in the 5 seasons from season 2011 and 2012 to season 2015 and 2016 (1411), and 45% higher than the same weeks last season.

1.5 Rotavirus

The number of laboratory reports of rotavirus in this season* (since week 27 2016) is 894. This is 5% higher than the 10 season average for the same period in the seasons 2003 and 2004 to 2012 and 2013 (855)**. Rotavirus laboratory reports are currently at similar levels to previous years.

1.6 All-Cause Mortality

In week 47 2016, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death was seen through the EuroMOMO algorithm in England overall and by age group and across the devolved administrations.

*In order to capture the winter peak of activity in one season, for reporting purposes, the norovirus and rotavirus season runs from week 27 in year 1 to week 26 in year 2, for example week 27 2009 to week 26 2010, July to June.

**Comparison is made with this ten season period as it is prior to the vaccine introduction.

2. Surveillance reports updated weekly

PHE syndromic surveillance page

PHE national seasonal influenza report

PHE norovirus and rotavirus: summary of surveillance

PHE weekly all-cause mortality surveillance

3. Further information

NHS Choices winter website

Met Office Get Ready for Winter

Keep warm keep well: information for over 60s, low income families and people living with a disability

4. Planning resources

Cold weather plan for England

Annual flu programme