Research and analysis

Winter health watch summary: 11 December 2014

Published 26 March 2015

1. Summary

A Level 2 Cold Weather Alert has been issued today (11 December 2014) for North East England, North West England, and Yorkshire and the Humber. All other regions of England remain at Cold Weather Alert Level 1 ‘winter preparedness and action’ since 1 November 2014.

Indicators for influenza-like illness (ILI) have started to increase across all syndromic surveillance systems in week 49. GP consultations for severe asthma have risen particularly in 5 to 14 year olds, but Emergency Department (ED) attendances for asthma, wheeze, difficulty breathing in children have started to decrease.

In week 49 2014 (ending 7 December), influenza activity increased for several indicators, including syndromic indicators, GP ILI consultation rates and proportion of samples positive for influenza. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) continues to circulate, predominantly in under five year olds.

The number of laboratory reports of norovirus in the season to date is similar to the 5 year seasonal average (from season 2009 and 2010 to season 2013 and 2014). Reports of outbreaks of diarrhoea and vomiting in hospitals continue to be reported at similar levels to previous years.

Rotavirus activity is low; laboratory reports are slightly lower than the 10 season average (from season 2003 to 2004 to season 2012 to 2013). The decreased rotavirus activity is likely to be associated with the introduction of the oral vaccine in July 2013 [1].

In week 49 2014, no excess all-cause mortality by week of death was seen in England through the EuroMOMO algorithm.

2. Surveillance reports updated weekly

PHE syndromic surveillance page

PHE national seasonal influenza report

PHE norovirus page

PHE weekly all-cause mortality surveillance

3. Further information

NHS Choices winter website

Met Office Get Ready for Winter

Keep warm keep well: information for over 60s, low income families and people living with a disability

4. Planning resources

Cold weather plan for England 2014

Annual flu programme

[1] PHE have recently introduced a new laboratory reporting system so direct comparisons between norovirus and rotavirus data from the previous system (LabBase2) and the new system (SGSS) may not be valid.