Research and analysis

Winter health watch summary: 16 January 2014

Published 16 January 2014

This research and analysis was withdrawn on

1. Summary

All regions of England have been at Cold Weather Alert Level 1 ‘winter preparedness and action’ since 1 November 2013.

Indicators of influenza activity remain at low levels of intensity with evidence of sporadic detections of influenza. However, increasing influenza positivity and influenza-confirmed hospitalisations in young adults (15 to 44 year olds) has been reported, with A(H1N1)pdm09 predominating.

Syndromic surveillance has nothing new to report. Selected indicators of influenza-like illness activity remain stable and below seasonally expected levels. National attendances for bronchitis and bronchiolitis continue to decrease, particularly for young children.

Reports of outbreaks of diarrhoea and vomiting in hospitals increased in the last two weeks. However, norovirus activity is low. The number of laboratory reports of norovirus in the season to date is lower than the 5 year seasonal average (covering winter seasons from 2007 to 2012).

Rotavirus activity is low, laboratory reports are lower than the ten year average (2002 to 2011).

In week 2 of 2014, no excess all-cause mortality was seen across in Scotland and Northern Ireland and none has been reported since week 40 of 2013. Due to the bank holidays, there is no update for excess mortality estimates in recent weeks for England and Wales (no significant excess all-cause mortality was reported from week 40 to week 50 of 2013).

2. Surveillance reports, updated weekly

PHE syndromic surveillance page

PHE national seasonal influenza report

PHE norovirus page

PHE weekly all-cause mortality surveillance

3. Further information

NHS Choices winter website

NHS England winter health check

Met Office Get Ready for Winter

Keep warm keep well: information for over 60s, low income families and people living with a disability

4. Planning resources

Cold weather plan 2013

Flu plan: Winter 2013 to 2014 by DH, NHS England and PHE