Official Statistics

National flu report summary: 10 January 2019 (week 2)

Updated 26 September 2019

Main points: data up to week 1, 2019

Data up to week 1 (ending 06 January 2019) shows:

• during week 1 - allowing for Christmas and New Year reporting breaks - there is evidence that influenza is now circulating in the community, as activity indicators breach baseline threshold levels at low intensity
• the impact of flu on healthcare services is at moderate intensity levels for hospitalisations and ICU/HDU admissions
• influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 is the dominant subtype
• the Department of Health and Social Care has issued an alert on the prescription of antiviral medicines by GPs

The full weekly flu report this summary is based on, accompanying spreadsheet of data, and slideset are available from Weekly national flu reports: 2018 to 2019 season.

Surveillance scheme summaries

Community

Data from outbreak surveillance shows:

• there have been 97 new acute respiratory outbreaks reported in the past 7 days
• a total of 84 outbreaks were reported from care homes where 15 tested positive for influenza A(not subtyped), 1 for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 3 for hMPV, 1 for picornavirus, 3 for rhinovirus, 5 for RSV, and there were 2 mixed infections - 1 influenza A(not subtyped) and RSV and 1 RSV and rhinovirus
• a total of 11 outbreaks were reported from hospitals where 2 tested positive for influenza A(not subtyped), 1 for influenza A(H3), 1 for hMPV, 1 for RSV and 1 for mixed infection with influenza B and RSV
• the remaining 2 outbreaks were reported from the other settings category with 1 positive for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09

Primary care

Data from primary care surveillance shows:

• the rate of influenza-like illness (ILI) was at low-intensity threshold levels
• the overall weekly ILI GP consultation rate was 14.8 per 100,000 registered population, in participating GP practices for England - this is similar to 8.4 per 100,000 in week 52. Due to bank holidays in week 1, GP surgeries were only open for 4 days, so data should therefore be interpreted with caution
• in the devolved administrations, ILI rates were at below baseline threshold levels for Northern Ireland and Scotland, and were at low-intensity threshold levels for Wales

Secondary care

Data from secondary care surveillance shows:

• hospitalisation rate observed was at moderate impact threshold levels, with a rate of 4.32 per 100,000 trust catchment population for England (14 NHS Trusts), this is an increase from 1.96 per 100,000 in week 52
• ICU and HDU admission rate observed was at moderate impact threshold levels, with a rate of 0.40 per 100,000 trust catchment population for England (130 out of 143 NHS Trusts) - this is an increase from 0.32 per 100,000 in week 52
• there were 8 new influenza admissions (7 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 1 influenza A(H3N2)) reported from the 6 severe respiratory failure centres in the UK

All-cause mortality

Data from all-cause mortality surveillance shows:

• no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death was seen overall and by age group in England in week 1
• in the devolved administrations, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality for all ages was observed in Northern Ireland and Wales in week 1 2019 and in Scotland in week 51 2018

Microbiological surveillance

Data from microbiological surveillance shows:

• in primary care, 25 samples tested positive for influenza (15 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 3 influenza A(H3), 6 influenza A(not subtyped) and 1 influenza B) with a positivity of 56.8% through the UK GP sentinel swabbing schemes
• in secondary care, influenza percent positivity was 16.4%, above baseline threshold levels - this is a decrease from 18.1% in week 52
• a total of 418 detections were recorded through the DataMart scheme (233 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 53 influenza A(H3), 128 influenza A(unknown subtype) and 4 influenza B)

Vaccination

Data from the GP patient, healthcare worker and primary school-age children flu vaccine uptake programmes shows:

• up to week 52 2018, in 97.2% of GP practices in England, the provisional proportion of people who had received the 2018 to 2019 influenza vaccine in targeted groups was 44.7% in under 65 years in a clinical risk group, 43.6% in pregnant women and 69.7% in those aged 65years and over
• in 97.5% of GP practices reporting for the childhood collection the provisional proportion vaccinated was 41.5% in 2-year-olds and 43.0% in 3-year-olds
• provisional data from the second monthly collection of influenza vaccine uptake by frontline healthcare workers show 61.0% were vaccinated by 30 November 2018, compared to 59.3% vaccinated in the previous season by 30 November 2017
• provisional data from the second monthly collection of influenza vaccine uptake for children of school years reception to year 5 shows 49.6% in school year reception age, 49.4% in school year 1 age, 47.7% in school year 2 age, 46.8% in school year 3 age, 45.2% in school year 4 age and 43.7% in school year 5 age were vaccinated by 30 November 2018

International situation

• in the temperate zone of the Northern hemisphere, influenza activity continued to increase slowly
• in the temperate zone of the Southern hemisphere, influenza activity returned to inter-seasonal levels with exception of some parts of Australia
• worldwide, seasonal influenza subtype A viruses accounted for the majority of detections

Further information

The full weekly flu report this summary is based on, accompanying spreadsheet of data and slideset are available from weekly national flu reports: 2018 to 2019 season.

See seasonal influenza: guidance, data and analysis for further information on the symptoms, diagnosis, management, surveillance and epidemiology of seasonal influenza (flu).

See sources of UK flu data: influenza surveillance in the UK for further information and guidance on the surveillance schemes we use to track seasonal influenza.