East Anglia water situation: November 2025 summary
Updated 11 December 2025
Applies to England
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East Anglia rainfall for November 2025 ranged from 79% to 196% of the long term average (LTA) for the month. Above average rainfall was received in all catchments, except for South Essex which received below average rainfall. The soil moisture deficit (SMD) for East Anglia reduced by approximately 74mm from October to November, following above average rainfall. The SMD has been categorised as normal for the time of year. River flows increased at all sites in November 2025, with the majority of sites categorised as normal or below normal. Groundwater levels at approximately 50% of the report sites continued to recede, with approximately 50% of the sites showing groundwater recharge. The majority of groundwater report sites were categorised as normal to notably low for the time of year. Public water supply reservoirs within East Anglia ended November 2025 with levels ranging from 50% to 80% of full storage capacity.
1. Rainfall
November 2025 rainfall totals across East Anglia ranged from 79% to 196% of the LTA for the month. The Upper and Lower Bedford Ouse catchments recorded the highest rainfall totals, receiving respectively 123mm and 112mm across the month. The average rainfall across East Anglia for November 2025 was 101mm, which is 161% of the historic LTA and is considered notably high for the time of year. All catchments across East Anglia recorded above normal or higher rainfall in November, except for South Essex which recorded the lowest rainfall total of 46mm, which is considered normal for the time of year. Over the past 3 months rainfall has been approximately average or above, with East Suffolk recording the highest LTA of 132%.
2. Soil moisture deficit and recharge
The SMD for East Anglia at the end of November 2025 was 28mm. The SMD has continued to decrease following above average rainfall and is considered normal for the time of year. South Essex, Central Area Fenland and North West Norfolk and Wissey catchments have the highest SMD values ranging between 41mm to 70mm. All other catchments had SMD values ranging between 11mm to 40mm.
3. River flows
Following above average rainfall in nearly all catchments, the November 2025 month mean flow at all river flow report sites, was higher than the October 2025 month mean flow. All report sites in the east of the area recorded normal flows for the time of year. In the west, the Little Ouse catchment recorded 41% of the LTA, which is considered notably low for the time of year. The Burn, Heacham, Nar, Ely Ouse and Cam catchments all recorded below normal flows. All other flow report sites in the west of the area recorded normal flows, with the Ivel recording the highest LTA at 94%.
4. Groundwater levels
Groundwater levels have continued to recede at 8 report sites, with a drop in level from October to November. Report sites Breckland, Hindolveston and The Spinney were all categorised as exceptionally low for the time of year. Groundwater recovery has been observed at 9 report sites, with an increase in level from October to November. The majority of report sites ended November 2025 with groundwater levels categorised as normal or below normal for the time of year. Therfield Rectory, North Hertfordshire Chalk, continues to be atypical for the area, with above normal groundwater levels for the time of year. This is likely to be the result of a locally exceptional recharge season, with the September 2024 to February 2025 rainfall in the Upper Bedford Ouse catchment being the fifth wettest September to February rainfall total on record (1871 to 2025) for that catchment.
5. Reservoir stocks
All public water supply reservoirs have seen refill in November 2025, with levels ranging from 50% to 80% of full storage capacity. Alton Water, Grafham and Hanningfield reservoirs ended the month with levels below their respective normal operating curves.
6. Forward look
6.1 Probabilistic ensemble projections for river flows at key sites
River flow projections at all key sites show a high probability of below normal to notably low flows for December 2025. The Ivel has the highest probability of normal flows for December 2025. Projections for March 2026 show a high probability of normal to exceptionally low flows at all report sites.
6.2 Probabilistic ensemble projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers
Groundwater projections for March 2026 show a high probability of below normal to exceptionally low levels at most forecast sites. Projections for September 2026 show a high probability of normal to exceptionally low levels. The Therfield Rectory groundwater level projection shows an 89% probability of normal groundwater levels by March and September 2026.
Author: Hydrology Team, hydrology-ean-and-lna@environment-agency.gov.uk
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report.