Research and analysis

Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire water situation: February 2026 summary

Updated 12 March 2026

Applies to England

• Publication for Northern Ireland
• Publication for Scotland
• Publication for Wales

1. Summary

February was an exceptionally wet month across the Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire Area (LNA), with rainfall totals exceeding twice the long term average (LTA).

This continued the very wet conditions experienced throughout winter, resulting in saturated soils and widespread exceptionally high river flows and groundwater levels. Several river flow and groundwater monitoring sites recorded their highest February levels on record. Reservoir stocks across the area remained healthy and at or above their normal operating curves.

2. Rainfall

Rainfall during February was reasonably distributed throughout the month, with multiple rainfall events contributing to the total rather than a single prolonged and intense period. The most significant rainfall occurred around 5 and 27 February, although rainfall was recorded somewhere in the area on every day of the month.

Across the LNA, total rainfall was 93mm (221% of the long term average, LTA). This is classified as exceptionally high and represents the sixth wettest February on record.

At the catchment scale, the eastern hydrological areas fell within slightly lower classification bandings. The Steeping, Great Eau and Long Eau received 202% of LTA, while the South Forty Foot and Hobhole recorded 207% of LTA, placing both in the notably high banding.

Looking at longer-term accumulations, the winter period (November to February) is now the wettest on record, exceeding the previous record (2024) by 46mm. The six-month period from September to February ranks as the fourth wettest on record, reflecting the strong influence of the wet winter following an exceptionally dry summer. This pattern is further illustrated in the longer-term rainfall maps, which shows 12-month totals within the normal to above normal range.

3. Soil moisture deficit and recharge

Soil moisture deficit (SMD) remained very low throughout February, reflecting the persistently wet winter conditions. Across the area the mean SMD at the end of the month was 4mm, compared to 2mm at the end of January.

All hydrological areas were classified within the normal to below normal deficit range for the time of year, indicating soils close to field capacity across much of the area. These conditions limited the capacity of soils to absorb rainfall and contributed to rapid runoff responses in rivers.

4. River flows

River flows across the area responded strongly to the exceptionally high rainfall totals recorded during February. Monthly mean flows increased to exceptionally high levels across most of the area, compared to January, when flows were largely above normal to notably high. Daily mean flows remained elevated throughout the month due to the persistence of rainfall and saturated catchment conditions.

Of the 12 indicator sites, 75% (9 sites) recorded exceptionally high monthly mean flows, while the remaining three sites, located in the north-east of the area, returned notably high flows.

In total, 4 sites recorded their highest February mean flow on record, including sites on the River Welland (Ashley, Barrowden/Tixover and Kates Bridge/King Street), and Langworth on the Barlings Eau. The remaining key sites, such as those on the River Nene, were comparable to monthly means observed in February 2024.

5. Groundwater levels 

Groundwater levels across all monitored aquifers were above normal to exceptionally high during February, continuing the upward trend observed in January, when most sites ended the month within the above normal to notably high range.

One monitoring site, Hanthorpe in the Lincolnshire Limestone, returned its highest groundwater levels on record for February, while Grainsby in the chalk remained with above normal levels since January.

6. Reservoir stocks

Reservoir storage across the region remained generally healthy. Pitsford and Hollowell reservoirs were both operating at 100% capacity by the end of the month. Covenham Reservoir remained below its seasonal control curve.

7. Environmental impact 

During February 2026 a total of 45 Flood Alerts and 13 Flood Warnings were issued across the area. The most significant activity occurred between 5 and 7 February and again around 28 February. All water transfer schemes remained switched off throughout the month. No abstraction licence cessations were issued.

8. Forward look

8.1 Projections for river flows at key sites

March 2026: Model projections indicate a high likelihood of higher than normal flows across all forecast sites during March. Under below average rainfall scenarios (60% to 80% of LTA), most sites are projected to remain within the normal to exceptionally high flow range. Under average to wetter scenarios (100 to 120% of LTA), flows at most sites are projected to fall within the notably high to exceptionally high range.

June 2026: Model projections indicate an increased probability of above normal flows across the forecast sites. Under below average to average rainfall scenarios (60 to 100% of LTA), flows at most sites are projected to fall within the normal range. Under a wetter scenario (120% of LTA), sites show a greater likelihood of above normal flows.

8.2 Projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers

March 2026: Model projections indicate a high likelihood of groundwater levels remaining exceptionally high across the key aquifers by March. Across all four rainfall scenarios (60% to 120% of LTA), groundwater levels at the forecast sites are projected to fall within the exceptionally high banding.

September 2026: Model projections suggest a greater probability of groundwater levels remaining higher than normal in September. Under below average rainfall scenarios (60% to 80% of LTA), most sites are projected to remain within the normal to above normal range. Under average to above average rainfall scenarios (100% to 120% of LTA), groundwater levels at most sites show an increased likelihood of remaining above normal or higher.

Author: Pan Hydrology Team, Hydrology-EAN-and-LNA@environment-agency.gov.uk

All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report.

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