Research and analysis

South-east England water situation report: February 2026 summary

Updated 12 March 2026

Applies to England

• Publication for Northern Ireland
• Publication for Scotland
• Publication for Wales

1. Summary

The South-east of England received 191% of the long term average (LTA) rainfall for February due to frontal rainfall from the Atlantic, caused by a strong jet stream. It was the second consecutive month with over 190% of the monthly LTA. The two-month period ending February was the wettest on record for the South-east, the four areas and a number of areal units since 2014. The soil moisture deficits (SMDs) were largely at or close to zero at the end of the month, resulting in an average recharge for the South-east of 239% of the LTA for February.

The monthly mean flow of all 21 indicator flow sites were in the above normal or higher category, reflecting the heavy rainfall during the last 2 months. Nine sites had exceptionally high flows for February, largely clustered towards the west and south where rainfall has been the greatest. There were 102 fluvial flood alerts and 35 fluvial flood warnings in the South-east of England during February. Groundwater levels have generally risen during the month in response to the rainfall and high recharge. However, the levels at more responsive sites have declined slightly at the end of the month reflecting the drier days after 18 February. There were 19 groundwater flooding alerts issued across the South-east during February.

2. Rainfall

The wet start to 2026 continued into February which was relatively warm and unsettled, with an average of only 8 ‘dry’ days (less than 0.2mm rainfall). The South-east of England received 191% of the LTA rainfall for February due to frontal rainfall from the Atlantic, caused by a strong jet stream. It was the second consecutive month with over 190% of the monthly LTA. Solent and South Downs (SSD) and Thames (THM) were the wettest areas with 211% and 204% LTA respectively. This is reflected in the rainfall map for February with patches of exceptionally high rainfall in these areas. Hertfordshire and North London (HNL) received 196% the LTA and Kent and South London (KSL) 159% the LTA for February. There were daily rainfall totals in excess of 35mm recorded on both 18 and 1 February. The highest daily rainfall total, 38.1mm, was recorded at Chale, IOW (SSD) on 18 February. However, the rainfall was more widespread on both 5 and 18 February, accounting for almost a quarter of the monthly total combined. For the third consecutive month, the top 5 highest daily rainfall totals were recorded in SSD.

The two-month period ending in February was the wettest since 2014 for the South-east, the four areas and a number of areal units. It was the third wettest on record for the South-east of England and the second wettest for both SSD and THM. It was the wettest two-month period ending in February on record for Isle of Wight (SSD). The 4-month period ending in February was the wettest on record for Cotswolds West, Cotswolds East and Cherwell areal units (all THM).

3. Soil moisture deficit and recharge

As would be expected at this time of year, the SMDs were largely at or close to zero at the end of the month. The SMDs have been very low since mid-January for HNL and KSL and since mid-December for SSD and parts of THM. Unsurprisingly, recharge across the South-east was high this month ranging from 193% of the LTA for KSL to 281% of the LTA for HNL with an average of 239% for the South-east. This average drops to 138% for the winter so far (since October) as the SMDs at the start of the winter were some of the highest on record.

4. River flows

The monthly mean flow of all 21 indicator flow sites were in the above normal or higher category, reflecting the heavy rainfall of the last 2 months. The rivers in the above normal category were in the drier east, examples being the Mimram at Panshanger (HNL) and the Darent at Hawley (KSL). Nine sites had exceptionally high flows for February, largely clustered towards the west and south where rainfall had been the greatest. The 8 sites with notably high flows were mainly in the clay catchments of KSL and SSD to the east.

Flows at groundwater dominated sites peaked around mid-February, for example the Kennet at Marlborough (THM) and the Itchen at Allbrook and Highbridge (SSD). Sites draining impermeable catchments had multiple discrete peaks in response to the rainfall events during the month, for example Lymington River at Brockenhurst (SSD). A number of sites had the highest monthly mean flows since 2014, with the Thames at Farmoor, the Wey at Tilford (both THM) and Lymington River at Brockenhurst (SSD) all having the second highest monthly flows for February on record. There were 102 fluvial flood alerts and 35 fluvial flood warnings in the South-east of England during February.

5. Groundwater levels   

Groundwater levels have generally risen during the month in response to the rainfall and high recharge. Therfield, Lee Chalk (HNL) is normally the last of the indicator Chalk boreholes to respond to winter recharge. Levels there started to rise in the second week of February and remained in the normal range for the month. The groundwater levels of the more responsive indicator sites peaked after the rainfall on 18 February and have since declined slightly. Examples of this include Jackaments, Cotswolds and Rockley (both THM) and Chilgrove (SSD). Sites in the exceptionally high category were towards the south and west where the high rainfall totals were recorded. Lopcombe and West Meon (both SSD) recorded the highest February levels since 2014. There were 19 groundwater flooding alerts issued during February across the South-east.

6. Reservoir stocks

The reservoir storage remained below the LTA for February at Lower Thames (THM) and at Arlington (KSL). The storage at the remaining reservoirs at Bewl, Bough Beech, Weir Wood, Darwell, Powdermill (all KSL), at Ardingly (SSD) and Lower Lee (HNL) had recovered to above the LTA for February. Ardingly (SSD), Bough Beech, Darwell, Powdermill and Weir Wood (all KSL) were at 100%.

Author: groundwaterhydrology@environment-agency.gov.uk     

All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report.