East Anglia water situation: February 2026 summary
Updated 12 March 2026
Applies to England
© Crown copyright 2026
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This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/water-situation-local-area-reports/east-anglia-water-situation-february-2026-summary
1. Summary
East Anglia rainfall for February 2026 ranged from 129% to 204% of the long term average (LTA) for the month. The soil moisture deficit (SMD) for East Anglia at the end of February 2026 was 3.4mm with all catchment areas ending February 2026 with deficits below 10mm. River flows were greater than normal or normal for all sites except Heacham which recorded below normal flows. Groundwater levels have increased across all sites with most sites recording greater than or normal groundwater for this time of year. Only 3 sites across East Anglia show below normal groundwater levels for this time of year. Public water supply reservoirs ended February 2026 with levels ranging from 71% to 98% of their full storage capacities. Two reservoirs ended the month with levels above their respective normal operating curves, and 3 reservoirs ended the month with levels below their respective normal operating curves.
2. Rainfall
East Anglia received above average rainfall in February 2026. February 2026 rainfall totals across East Anglia ranged from 129% to 204% of the LTA for the month. The average rainfall across East Anglia for February 2026 was 75mm, which is 176% of the historic LTA and is considered notably high for the time of year. The highest rainfall totals were recorded in the Upper and Lower Bedford Ouse, East Suffolk and North Essex, with these catchments all recording exceptionally high rainfall for the time of year. The cumulative rainfall totals over the past 3 and 6 months have been above average across all catchments. Over the past 12 months, rainfall totals have been classified as normal in all catchments except for North West Norfolk and Wissey, North Norfolk and South Essex.
3. Soil moisture deficit and recharge
The SMD for East Anglia at the end of February 2026 was 3.4mm, which is normal for the time of year. All catchments have SMD values of 5mm or below. Central Area Fenland and North Norfolk have SMD values between 25mm and 6mm below the LTA for February 2026. The remaining 9 catchments in East Anglia have SMD values between 5mm above and 5mm below the LTA for February 2026. SMD has improved since January 2026 with 2 catchments North Essex and Lower Bedford Ouse moving from SMD values of 25mm to 6mm below the LTA into 5mm above and 5mm below the LTA.
4. River flows
Following above average rainfall across East Anglia, the February 2026 month mean flows at roughly half the monitoring sites have increased compared to January 2026. All sites have greater than normal or normal flows except Heacham which received below normal flows at 54% of the LTA. Five sites recorded exceptionally high month mean flows with LTAs ranging from 220% at the Ouse to 283% at the Colne.
5. Groundwater levels
Groundwater levels have continued to rise in all reporting sites, for which there is data available, for February 2026. Most sites are greater than or normal for this time of year with Smeetham Hall Cottages recording notably high for this time of year and Fringford recording exceptionally high for this time of year. Three reporting sites; Bircham Newton, Hindolveston and Breckland have below normal groundwater levels for this time of year.
6. Reservoir stocks
All public water supply reservoirs have seen a net increase in storage for February 2026. At the end of the month, levels ranged from 71% to 98% of the full storage capacity. Alton and Ardleigh reservoirs ended the month with levels above their respective normal operating curves. Grafham, Abberton and Hanningield reservoirs ended the month with levels below their respective normal operating curves.
7. Forward look
7.1 Probabilistic ensemble projections for river flows at key sites
River flow projections at all sites show a high probability of normal or higher flows for March 2026. The Ouse at Roxton and Ely Ouse at Denver are the only sites with projections of flows below normal for March 2026. River flow projections for June 2026 show most sites with a high probability of normal or higher flows. The Ely Ouse at Denver shows a greater than 50% prediction that flows will be less than normal in June 2026.
7.2 Probabilistic ensemble projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers
Groundwater projections for March 2026 show a high probability of normal or higher levels at most sites. Bircham Newton and Newmarket have a higher probability that the groundwater levels will be below normal for March 2026. Bury St Edmunds and Smeetham are predicted to have greater than normal groundwater levels for March 2026. Groundwater projections for September 2026 show a high probability of normal or higher levels at most sites. Bircham Newton and Newmarket have a higher probability that the groundwater levels will be below normal for September 2026. Therfield Rectory and Smeetham are predicted to have greater than normal groundwater levels for September 2026.
Author: Hydrology Team, hydrology-ean-and-lna@environment-agency.gov.uk
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report.
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