Modelling from University of Warwick academics on roadmaps for relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). It was considered at SAGE 80 on 11 February 2021.
This paper should be read alongside the following papers released under SAGE 80:
An earlier version of the corresponding paper is SPI-M-O: Summary of modelling on easing restrictions which was discussed at SAGE 79 on 4 February 2021. An updated version of this paper titled SPI-M-O: Summary of modelling on roadmap scenarios was brought to SAGE 81 on 18 February 2021. These also link to corresponding modelling papers from Warwick and Imperial from SAGE 79 and 81 respectively.
The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.
Redactions in this document have been made to remove any security markings.