Research and analysis

University of Warwick: Roadmaps for relaxation of NPIs, 15 February 2021

Modelling from the University of Warwick.


University of Warwick : Roadmaps for Relaxation of NPIs - 15 February 2021

This file may not be suitable for users of assistive technology.

Request an accessible format.
If you use assistive technology (such as a screen reader) and need a version of this document in a more accessible format, please email Please tell us what format you need. It will help us if you say what assistive technology you use.


Modelling from the University of Warwick on easing of restrictions. It was considered at SAGE 81 on 18 February 2021.

The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.

This paper should be read alongside the following papers released under SAGE 81:

Earlier SPI-M-O statements on modelling on easing restrictions were discussed at SAGE 79 and SAGE 80:

These also link to earlier modelling papers from Warwick and Imperial.

These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.

Redactions in this document have been made to remove any security markings.

Published 22 February 2021