Quality and methodology report: trade and investment factsheets

Question 1

1. Background information

Accepted Answer

1.1 Introduction

The BIST trade and investment factsheets are a set of compendium documents which provide the latest trade and investment statistics between the UK and over 220 individual trading and investment partners.

The factsheets bring together a wide range of UK statistics produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC), as well as international statistics produced by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), among others.

All statistics used within the trade and investment factsheets are publicly available and are listed in section 3. The factsheets also present previously unpublished statistics on UK market share, which are calculated using publicly available statistics from the ONS and UNCTAD.

It is recommended that users download the most recent version of the factsheets and do not attempt to compare these with older versions, to ensure the use of the latest and most accurate statistics available. Many of the data sources are subject to revisions, including revisions to previous years’ data. All figures presented in the factsheets accurately represent the statistics available from those sources at the time of publication. The factsheets will be updated and revised as and when updates to the statistics are available.

The trade and investment factsheets were first published on GOV.UK on 12 February 2021. Forthcoming dates for publication will be made available on the statistics release calendar on GOV.UK and are aligned to other major trade and investment statistics publications, as set out in Section 3. The next available update to these factsheets will also be highlighted within the trade and investment factsheets themselves.

BIST welcome any feedback about the factsheets or this quality and methodology report. You can submit any comments, questions, or suggestions to statistics@businessandtrade.gov.uk.

In addition, BIST publish the UK trade in numbers and the trade and investment core statistics book which provide the most up to date snapshot of the UK’s overall trade and investment position to and from the world. These publications are based on the same data sources as the trade and investment factsheets and therefore are comparable across the 3 publications.

The UK trade in numbers and the core statistics book should be used if overall trade or investments statistics are required for the UK as a whole. The trade and investment factsheets should be used when there is a focus on the UK trading and investment relationships with partner countries and territories.

A full list of all other statistical series that are published by BIST can be found on the Statistics at DBT webpage.

1.2 Statistics designation

Official statistics are statistics produced by UK Crown bodies, those acting on behalf of Crown bodies, or those bodies specified in statutory orders This is defined in section 6 of the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007.

The responsible government minister, acting on the advice of their Chief Statistician, and in accordance with the guidance issued by the National Statistician, determines whether statistics should be treated as official statistics.

The term official statistics includes 3 types of statistics produced by UK public bodies:

Official statistics are statistical releases that comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics, but have not been formally assessed by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR). The trade and investment factsheets are an example of official statistics as they have been assessed as adhering to the code. However since no formal assessment has been undertaken by the OSR, they cannot be labelled as ‘accredited official statistics’.

Accredited official statistics are a subset of official statistics which have been assessed by the OSR as being fully compliant with the Code of Practice for Statistics. This ensures they meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality, and value in government statistics.

Official statistics in development are a subset of official statistics which include newly developed or innovative statistics. These are published as experimental so that users and stakeholders can be involved in the assessment of their suitability and quality.

More information on the labelling of official statistics can be found on the Government Statistical Services (GSS) webpage.

The trade and investment factsheets are designated as official statistics. Furthermore, within the factsheets, statistics produced in the UK, such as from the ONS and HMRC, are all based on official statistics publications.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) statistics published by the ONS, as well as trade in goods statistics by UK region, published by HMRC, are classified as accredited official statistics. These have been assessed by the OSR as being fully compliant with the Code of Practice for Statistics.

Trade by services by service type statistics published by the ONS are currently designated as official statistics in development while they continue to develop their methodologies.

While international statistics providers are not assessed using these same criteria, they are provided in this publication as BIST have deemed them to be suitable for their use in these factsheets. This judgement is based on peer review within BIST where their data quality has been assessed. More information on how these statistics providers adhere to international data quality standards can be found for each individual dataset in Section 3.

1.3 Statistics update schedule

See Section 3 for more detailed information about each statistics source listed here.

Publication	Statistics provider	UK designation of statistics	Updates from providers	BIST update frequency on GOV.UK
Quarterly UK total trade statistics	ONS	official statistics	quarterly	quarterly
UK trade monthly statistics	ONS	official statistics	monthly	no regular monthly update
Trade statistics by commodity type	ONS	official statistics	monthly	no regular monthly update
Trade statistics by service type	ONS	official statistics in development	quarterly	quarterly
UK market share	ONS and UNCTAD	not applicable (combines 2 datasets from this list and is not published elsewhere)	quarterly (ONS) and bi-annual (UNCTAD)	in-line with update frequency for the ONS quarterly trade and UNCTAD statistics
Trade in goods by UK region	HMRC	accredited official statistics	quarterly	in-line with update frequency for the ONS quarterly trade statistics
Trade in services by mode of supply	ONS	official statistics in development	annual	annual
Number of VAT-registered businesses trading goods	HMRC	official statistics	quarterly	in-line with update frequency for the ONS quarterly trade statistics
TiVA: Trade in Value Added	OECD	produced by other international organisation	annual	annual
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)	ONS	accredited official statistics	annual	annual
Headline trade and investment data reported by international providers	UNCTAD	produced by other international organisation	annual	bi-annual, but may vary
Economic data and projections	International Monetary Fund (IMF)	produced by other international organisation	bi-annual	full dataset updated bi-annually in April and October

1.4 Release schedule and revisions policy

Due to the designation of these statistics as official statistics, BIST will notify users when they plan to publish new editions and if any revisions are required, in line with T3.9 in the Code of Practice for Statistics. A revision is defined as any change to official statistics in the public domain. These revisions can take the form of pre-announced revisions, or un-announced revisions such as when data updates are published without prior knowledge.

Pre-announced factsheet editions

Planned editions due to the release of pre-announced data from providers are when new editions of the factsheets are published following the release of new statistics. Examples of these regular updates include the publication of most recent quarterly statistics for the headline trade statistics, as well as revised ONS statistics which feed into the UK market share statistics.

The dates of these editions with be announced in advance via the government statistics release calendar as data providers also pre-announce the publication of new or revised data. The update frequency of each statistics source is provided in Section 1.3.

When the new statistics are likely to be highly revised from previous editions, users will be notified ahead of time with a summary of its impact included within the factsheets.

Unplanned editions due to factsheet corrections

The BIST statistics team regularly review and quality assure the factsheets before they are published (see Section 4.1 for more information on the quality assurance processes). Whilst the fully automated production process reduces the risk of introducing errors, there may be occasions where errors appear in the factsheets due to code not working as intended. This could happen when the statistics provider changes how the statistics are presented from previous releases, such as a change in column name or a change in formatting.

There is a thorough quality assurance process in place to prevent these errors, as detailed in Section 4.1, but errors may only be found after the publication of the factsheets. If these errors are small in impact, these revisions will be made at the time of the next scheduled release. However, if the errors significantly affect the users’ ability to use the factsheets correctly, a revised edition of factsheets will be published if agreed by the BIST Chief Statistician. This will be considered on a case-by-case basis. The impact of these revisions will be detailed on the GOV.UK website as well as within the factsheets where appropriate.

Unplanned factsheet updates

Unplanned editions due to the release of unannounced statistics from providers are similar to planned editions, but for updates where BIST did not have prior knowledge on the exact date of release. This can happen for data from international statistics providers, such as UNCTAD and IMF, where the date of the update is unknown.

The impact of the unplanned schedules will be reviewed by the BIST statistics team to determine if a new edition is required to be published. This will be considered on a case-by-case basis whether a new edition of the factsheets are required. If a new edition is required, this will be announced on GOV.UK as soon as possible and users on GOV.UK will be informed about the reason for this.

Revisions due to conceptual or methodological changes to statistics sources

These revisions account for substantial methodological changes. As these methodological changes may have a large impact on the statistics presented, the factsheets may need substantial changes to its dissemination to reflect these differences. Each set of statistics has its own individual revisions policy with the provider, detail on where this information may be found is provided in Section 3.

Where major changes to statistics occur, BIST will ensure the impact of these changes are made clear within the factsheets as well as on the GOV.UK website. If these revisions are substantial in impact, this figures may be caveated or temporarily removed while these methodological changes are implemented in the factsheets.

As the trade and investment factsheets are classed as official statistics, BIST are required to provide prior notification of the release dates of the factsheets. In the event of revisions occurring by statistics producers, this will be communicated upfront, with a notice to users provided within the affected section of the factsheets.

Question 2

2. Quality dimensions

Accepted Answer

2.1 What is quality?

Quality is defined in terms of how well outputs meet user needs. The Code of Practice for Statistics states that quality means that statistics fit their intended uses, are based on appropriate data and methods, and are not misleading. This definition is a relative one allowing for various perspectives on what constitutes quality depending on the intended use.

In order to determine whether outputs meet their needs, quality is measured in terms of the quality dimensions of the European Statistical System. These are:

Relevance: the degree to which statistics meet current and potential user needs in both coverage and content.
Accuracy and reliability: the closeness between an estimated result and the (unknown) true value, and the closeness of early estimates to subsequent estimated values.
Timeliness and punctuality: the time gap between the publication and the reference period of the estimate, and the gap between planned and actual publication dates.
Accessibility and clarity: the ease with which users can access the data, and the quality and sufficiency of the metadata, illustrations and accompanying advice.
Coherence and comparability: the degree to which the data can be compared over time and domain, and the degree to which data that are derived from different sources or methods, but refer to the same topic, are similar. Cost, burden, and confidentiality: a summary of the financial burden the factsheets have, the resource required to generate the factsheets for publication, and whether there are any issues with data being published into the public domain.

Note that the information in this chapter reviews these quality dimensions with respect to the trade and investment factsheets, rather than appraising the quality of each individual statistics source.

The quality and methodology of each individual statistics source is explored in Section 3, with links provided for more information from each provider. Further information on the quality assurance processes for the factsheets can be found in Section 4.1.

2.2 Relevance

The trade and investment factsheets were first published February 2021, drawing together many different trade and investment statistics sources into one single collection of documents for each individual trade and investment partner. This was done to improve the access of these statistics by providing them in a clear and consistent manner and presenting a ‘single version of the truth’. This single version of the truth is important to ensure consistency and accuracy in the use of these statistics.

This publication provides a reference product for both users who require summary statistics with links to the source statistics for further analysis, and users who require simple easy-to-read headline statistics to quote from. While the factsheets’ main users are not necessarily data experts, the hyperlinks given in the footnotes throughout the document show where the source statistics can be found for those users wanting access.

Publishing these factsheets has allowed a wide range of users to access the factsheets.

The factsheet users include:

analysts in other government departments or those in the private sector
media outlets who wish to see headline trade statistics in a more accessible format without the use of in-depth knowledge of raw data or data providers
users who wish to view headline trade and investment statistics without in-depth knowledge of the data or data providers

Work has been done within BIST and the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) to review the effectiveness of these factsheets with its internal users. This has included the addition of new sources, as well as ensuring statistics are as clear as possible to all users. A presentation peer review group also reviewed the factsheets before their first publication on GOV.UK.

If users wish to provide feedback on the factsheets contact us at statistics@businessandtrade.gov.uk.

BIST will continuously review the factsheets’ relevance to users following feedback from stakeholders. BIST will perform regular reviews of the factsheets to ensure their quality continues to be high and included statistics remain relevant to all users. The review will involve sourcing views from users of the factsheets on the dissemination of statistics and asking if any new datasets should be included. The Chief Statistician at BIST will be informed of any recommendations following these reviews.

Factsheet review – March 2023

In March 2023, the former DBT undertook a survey to gather views from both internal and external users of the trade and investment factsheets. The survey covered the content and the design of the factsheets. Content refers to the statistics included within the factsheets and the review aimed to assess whether further statistics were required by users, if any current data needs amending, or if any need removing. Design refers to how the information in the factsheets are displayed and whether there are better ways to present the statistics.

The survey received 74 respondents, but not all responses were complete, leading to 58 full responses. The respondents varied, as did their uses of the factsheets, but the majority of users requested the following changes:

increased trade in services and investment statistics
time-series statistics for market share and percentage comparison for top 5 trade in goods by commodity type and top 5 trade in services by service type
greater annual statistics for headline statistics

The results of all responses were analysed by the DBT statistics team, and based on the necessity and priority of users, 2 distinct phases to incorporate changes desired by users were carried out. All results were recorded and noted; however, some changes were either not feasible or did not fit the remit of the factsheets.

The phases were as follows:

Phase 1 (Autumn 2023)

inclusion of annual statistics in the summary statistics page
inclusion of trade in services by modes of supply statistics

Phase 2 (2024)

inclusion of FDI by sector statistics
addition of market share time-series
comparison of previous period (% change) for trade in goods by commodity and trade in services by service type

The aim of these changes was to ensure the factsheets best fit the needs of users, by improving the display and information available within the factsheet, or increasing the depth of trade in services and investment statistics included.

If you wish to discuss anything further, you can get in touch via statistics@businessandtrade.gov.uk.

2.3 Accuracy and reliability

We produce the trade and investment factsheets via a reproducible analytical pipeline (RAP) using the software package ‘R’. Not only does using RAP greatly reduce the production time, but it also reduces human interaction needed and therefore minimises risk of errors. Any errors that do occur are likely to be systematic, and therefore, only need to be fixed once. We therefore consider these statistics to be robust and reliable.

A quality assurance process takes place throughout the production process in R as well as checking the end products before their publication. More information on the BIST quality assurance process can be found in Section 4.1.

There are checks in place to ensure accuracy is maintained between the statistics provided by the data owners and statistics presented in the factsheets. All liability for the quality and accuracy of these individual statistics are with the data owners. More information on sources and where quality reports can be found from the data owners are shown in Section 3.

2.4 Timeliness and punctuality

The time lag between the updates from certain statistics providers and the trade and investment factsheets publication on GOV.UK is around 5 working days. This means that there may be occasions where the statistics contained in the factsheets may not reflect the latest available statistics. Note that not all statistics updates will prompt a new version of the factsheets to be published.

There may be times when multiple statistics updates are scheduled from different providers in a short space of time, typically within a week of each other. In these cases, to reduce burden, all statistics updates will be included in a single factsheet update after all statistics have been published.

There may be times when the exact date of a statistics update was not known in advance. This can happen for international statistics providers where the exact date of the next update is not known. In these cases, BIST will ensure any update is announced on the GOV.UK release calendar as soon as possible, with an aim to publish within 5 working days.

There may be times when the factsheets are updated on an unscheduled basis if the statistics owners provide revised or corrected statistics. See Section 1.4 on the revisions policy for further details.

All scheduled releases will be captured within the GOV.UK release calendar. BIST will notify users if there are changes to the pre-announced release schedule and provide reasons for the change, as set out in the Code of Practice for Statistics. BIST is committed to releasing its statistics in an open and transparent manner that promotes confidence.

2.5 Accessibility and clarity

All statistics used in the trade and investment factsheets are from publicly available statistics sources which can be downloaded free of charge. The factsheets include links to the source statistics in the footnotes section for each statistic presented. Hyperlinks to each statistics source used within the factsheets, including notes on its quality and methodology, are available in Section 3 of this document.

In line with the government accessibility requirements, the trade and investment factsheets are provided in a PDF format which have been made to pass these AA accessibility standards for GOV.UK publications. An internal accessibility audit of the factsheets was undertaken, and items which were identified in this audit were amended prior to their first publication onto GOV.UK. BIST continues to review the accessibility of these factsheets, ensuring they adhere to the government accessibility requirements. Prior to each publication, BIST check a random sample of factsheets using accessibility testing software. These factsheets are also reviewed by the BIST digital team.

If you have any feedback on the accessibility of these documents contact statistics@businessandtrade.gov.uk.

2.6 Coherence and comparability

There may be some differences in the coherence between different statistics sources presented in the factsheets. Some of the reasons for these differences are given below:

some partners may be defined differently between data providers and so different statistics sources may not be directly comparable within the factsheets. An example of this is where ONS statistics for UK trade with the United States includes Puerto Rico, while other providers do not include Puerto Rico. A further example is where UNCTAD statistics for Liechtenstein are contained within the data for Switzerland, whereas these 2 partners are separated for other providers. Where there are discrepancies in definitions, these are outlined within the relevant footnotes
the statistics from the UK providers ONS and HMRC may differ from other international providers due to trade and investment asymmetries. It is recommended for statistics on the UK that UK providers are used instead of other national providers for consistency. More information on asymmetries can be found in Section 5.2
care must be taken when comparing different statistics sources from UK providers. Some statistics are seasonally adjusted whereas others are not, furthermore, while ONS statistics are recorded on a balance of payment basis, HMRC statistics are recorded on a physical movement basis. Definitions of these trade measures can be found in Section 6
statistics may show figures in different currencies, where an exchange rate conversation must take place for the figures to be comparable. Statistics have been presented in the same currency as the source data

Unless stated otherwise, the statistics presented in these factsheets are comparable over time, and where possible, any changes to methodology are applied to the whole series to ensure comparability is maintained. Time-series statistics for every dataset are not provided in the factsheets, where historic figures can be found online at the statistics owners’ webpage.

2.7 Cost, burden, and confidentiality

The statistics used are all derived from other primary statistics sources, so therefore, no extra resource is required to collect data. Due to the automated processes of producing the factsheets, there is a vastly reduced cost and burden associated with producing the publication compared to if it was done manually. No extra cost is required to publish these factsheets.

There are no confidentiality issues with the statistics contained in the factsheets as the statistics are already in the public domain. The UK providers, ONS and HMRC, also provided BIST permission to use their statistics before the first publication of the factsheets in February 2021.

Pre-release access is not applicable to the trade and investment factsheets, and therefore no period of pre-release access is granted. Pre-release access is the practice of making official statistics, and the written commentary that accompanies them, available in advance of their publication to specific individuals not involved in their production. In most cases, this includes government ministers and other officials who may be required to provide comment on the official statistics in a public forum. Pre-release access is not applicable for the trade and investment factsheets as it is not the first release of these statistics into the public domain. This decision was made in discussion with the Chief Statistician in BIST.

Question 3

3. Data sources

Accepted Answer

This section provides a list of the data sources used in the trade and investment factsheets, which includes information on the methodology and where to find more details from the data provider. The statistics are presented in the order they appear in the publication.

Note that UK market share statistics are the only statistics contained in the factsheet that are not explicitly published by other providers. These statistics are calculated within BIST using publicly available statistics from the ONS UK total trade: all countries, seasonally adjusted and UNCTAD goods and services BPM6 datasets. More information on these statistics can be found in Section 3.12.

3.1 Quarterly headline trade statistics (ONS)

The headline trade statistics presented for the latest rolling 4 quarters and latest calendar year come from the UK total trade: all countries, seasonally adjusted. This source provides statistics for total trade (exports and imports) for both goods and services between the UK and other trading partners. This seasonally adjusted figures are used for the headline trade statistics for all partners. All UK total trade statistics are presented in current prices, meaning no adjustment has been made to account for changes in inflation or exchange rates.

The trade in goods statistics published by the ONS are mainly sourced from data collected by HMRC via customs declarations on the physical goods exported from and imported to the UK. However, to conform to international reporting standards for goods trade on a ‘balance of payment’ basis, adjustments are made by the ONS to include trade which does not involve a change in ownership.

The trade in services statistics published by the ONS are collected from various sources, though the bulk of the data come from the ONS International Trade in Services Survey (ITIS). More detailed information on the sources of ONS goods and services data can be found in the ONS quality and methodology report.

ONS trade statistics are classified as official statistics, work has been undertaken to redesignate these trade statistics as accredited official statistics after their removal in 2014.

3.2 Monthly trade statistics and trade in goods by commodity (ONS)

The headline trade statistics in Section 3.1 are based on quarterly statistics and present figures for the latest 4 quarters. However, the timeliest statistics for trade are published in the monthly ONS UK trade publication. These statistics are provided on a monthly basis, including total UK trade in goods and services, and trade in goods only, by partner market.

Trade in goods by commodity statistics use the ONS statistics on ‘trade in goods: country-by-commodity’ for exports and imports. While these statistics are updated on a monthly basis, these commodity statistics are consistent with the same time period as presented for the headline trade statistics, to enable comparability. Therefore, more recent time periods for trade in goods by commodity by trading partner can be found in the ONS exports and imports statistics. Trade in goods by commodity and trading partner are not seasonally adjusted and should not be compared to seasonally adjusted datasets.

See the ONS website for more information on the methodology for seasonal adjustment.

The trade in goods by commodity figures are classified using the latest version of the standard international trade classification (SITC). SITC is designed to provide the commodity aggregates required for purposes of economic analysis and to facilitate the international comparison of trade-by-commodity data. Other sources may use other classifications, such as the harmonized system (HS).

ONS provide different levels of disaggregation in their statistics. The highest level is the 9 1-digit SITC codes (for example, ‘3 Fuels’). These are broken down into lower 2-digit SITC codes (for example, ‘33 Oil’) which reflect different products. For some commodities these are further broken down into lower 3-digit SITC codes (for example, ‘33R Refined Oil’). There are multiple hierarchies for each 1-digit SITC code.

BIST present commodity figures in the factsheets at the lowest level of disaggregation available in the ONS statistics. It is recommended that users also use the lowest level of disaggregation available in the ONS statistics to ensure consistency with our figures, although ONS provide statistics on all levels in each commodity’s hierarchy. A full list of the lowest-level SITC codes in the ONS statistics are provided in Annex A.

The percentage of the total UK exports and imports of goods accounted for by each of the top 5 commodities are not provided for some trading partners. This is due to the value of total UK exports and imports of goods being rounded to the nearest £ million, with commodity trade values being given to a greater level of accuracy to the nearest £10,000. As a result, in some cases, the percentages of the total accounted for by each commodity would sum to more than 100%. Therefore, these percentages are only presented if the total value of exports and imports are over £125 million with that trading partner. The percentages can be obtained if required from the original ONS statistics for exports and imports.

The ONS monthly trade in goods statistics are mainly sourced from data collected by HMRC in the same way as detailed in Section 3.1. All statistics are presented in current prices, meaning no adjustment has been made to account for changes in inflation or exchange rates. The statistics are affected by the change in methodology for trade in goods statistics following the end of the EU Exit transition period, as outlined in Section 3.1.

More detail on the methodology of these statistics can be found in the ONS quality and methodology information page. Trade statistics from the ONS UK trade publication are classified as official statistics.

3.3 Trade statistics by service type (ONS)

Trade in services by service type statistics are published in the ONS release: ONS UK trade in services by partner country. These statistics are published on a quarterly basis and are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on services and service types is collected by the ONS from a number of different sources. The main data source is the ONS ITIS survey which accounts for over half of all UK trade in services. See the ONS website for information on the ITIS survey.

Other sources of data include the International Passenger Survey (IPS) and other UK government departments. More information on the surveys that feed into the data collection for trade in services statistics are provided in the ONS quality and methodology report.

The ONS trade in services by service type statistics are classified using the latest version of the extended balance of payments services (EBOPS) classification. EBOPS is an internationally recognised classification for trade in services and is based on 12 higher-level classifications of services. The ONS UK trade in services: service type by partner country does provide lower disaggregation for some of these 12 higher-level classifications. However, the decision was taken to not report these disaggregated service types to avoid issues with suppressed data, as well as a lack of coverage for some trading partners at the lower levels.

A full list of EBOPS codes that services are broken down in the factsheets are given in Annex B.

There are differences in the coverage of the quarterly statistics due to ONS data suppression. This suppression is done to protect the confidentiality of individual companies where there are low amounts of service types traded for certain partners. This may mean the top service types are not reflected accurately due to lack of data for some quarters. In these cases comparisons from previous time periods should be treated with caution. More information on these issues can be found in the ONS UK trade in services by partner country release.

Statistics are presented for the top 3 service types traded between the UK and partner countries and territories. Note that statistics on trade by service type are limited by the ONS to approximately the largest 65 trading partners only, although world totals are also provided.

Statistics by service type are classified as official statistics in development which include newly developed or innovative statistics. More detail on the methodology of these statistics from ONS can be found on the quality and methodology information page.

3.4 Trade in goods by UK countries and English regions (HMRC)

These statistics present exports and imports of goods to and from the UK by trading partner broken down by UK country or English region. The 12 regions specified in these statistics refer to 9 separate regions in England, along with Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. These 12 UK regions are based on International Territorial level 1 (ITL1), which are equivalent to the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics level as defined by Eurostat as NUTS1 regions. These statistics are published on a quarterly basis in the HMRC UK regional trade in goods release.

The latest annual totals are presented in the factsheets which are provisional and subject to change. The latest statistics are based on goods trade from an ‘open’ time period, where data from ‘closed’ time periods is finalised and presented in the HMRC regional trade statistics publication.

This HMRC statistics do not include information for goods that either move wholly within the UK or are intangible, and any trade in services is excluded.

The regional trade statistics are compiled by merging trade data collected by HMRC with employment data from the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR). A business’ trade is allocated to a region based on the proportion of its employees employed in that UK country or English region. Where a trader cannot be matched with the IDBR, its trade is matched with ONS postcode data to obtain the region in which the head office of the business (importer or exporter) is based.

Not all trade can be allocated to a country in the UK or a single English region. Where appropriate, this trade is denoted as being ‘unallocated’. Unallocated trade is not presented in the factsheets, but is included in the calculation for the percentage of trade for each UK country and English region. For this reason, the percentages presented may not sum up to 100%. The latest figures are provisional and may be subject to change. Data for smaller trading partners may be unavailable.

The figures provided in this section are not comparable to the ones from the ONS in the headline trade statistics. This is because the HMRC statistics are provided on a physical movement basis, while the ONS statistics are provided on a balance of payments basis (change of ownership).

Total figures for regional trade will also differ from the HMRC Overseas Trade in Goods statistics due to the exclusion of non-response estimates and trade in non-monetary gold, which would distort the overall figure for the London region. More information on the magnitude of these differences between HMRC statistics can be found in the regional trade publication commentary.

Trade in services by UK region are not available from HMRC sources. However, the ONS publish the International trade in services by subnational areas of the UK. These statistics are listed as official statistics in development as they include newly developed or innovative statistics. BIST note these statistics are available from the ONS. They are not presented in the factsheets as the HMRC and ONS regional trade figures are provided on a different basis.

Further information on the methodology of these statistics from HMRC can be found in the regional trade statistics methodological paper and the explanatory notes in each statistical commentary. HMRC trade by region statistics are classified as accredited official statistics as they have judged to be fully compliant with the Code of Practice for Statistics.

3.5 Trade in services by mode of supply (ONS)

These statistics present the value of UK exports and imports of services by partner country and mode of supply. They are published on an annual basis, covering 67 countries, in the ONS release Imports and exports of services by country, by modes of supply, UK.

Modes of supply define the way services trade is conducted. The World Trade Organization’s General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) categorises trade in services into 4 modes of supply, which depend on the territorial presence of the supplier and the consumer at the time of transaction.

The 4 modes are as follows:

Mode 1: remote trade (a supplier in one country sells a service to a customer in another, without the movement of people)
Mode 2: consumption abroad (the person receiving the service travels to the supplier’s country)
Mode 3: commercial presence (for example, a company subsidiary) – this mode is not counted as part of UK services trade on a balance of payments basis and is not reported in this release
Mode 4: presence of natural persons (a supplier sends its personnel to the customer’s country to provide service)

ONS trade in services statistics are calculated from a variety of different sources, primarily surveys, with the ITIS survey (outlined in Section 3.1) accounting for around 50% of the value of trade in services.

The ITIS survey was amended in 2018 to include a question on modes of supply. This asks businesses to provide an estimate of the percentage of their trade that is delivered remotely (mode 1), by means such as post, telephone, internet or email. This dataset collects data for mode 1 only as research by Eurostat found 69% of trade in services is conducted via this mode. This decision was made to help mitigate some of the response burden on businesses and help improve data capture.

Once mode 1 estimates are finalised for each service type, the residuals are allocated to either mode 2 or mode 4 using Eurostat’s proportional allocation of EBOPS categories to modes of supply. There are exceptions for maintenance and repair and, within other business services, waste treatment and depollution, where residuals are divided between modes 2 and 4.

For non-ITIS industries (transport, travel, and government services) the allocation of modes of supply is based on Eurostat’s proportional allocation of EBOPS categories to modes of supply.

Further information on the methodology of these statistics from ONS can be found in the article Modes of supply: methods.

ONS imports and exports of services by country, by modes of supply, UK are designated as official statistics in development.

3.6 Number of VAT-registered businesses trading goods (HMRC)

These statistics provide figures on the number of businesses that trade in goods (both exporting and importing). These statistics are published on a quarterly basis alongside the UK regional trade in goods statistics (RTS) publication.

Note that prior to mid-February 2024, the factsheets used HMRC’s trade in goods by business characteristics (TGBC) statistics to compile estimates on the number of businesses in the UK trading with a country. More details on why BIST have changed the source from TGBC to RTS can be found in section 3.14.

Business counts include VAT-registered businesses trading in goods. Data is sourced from customs declarations for trade between Great Britain and the EU and between the UK and non-EU markets, and from Intrastat and VAT data for trade between Northern Ireland (NI) and the EU. Businesses that trade with both EU and non-EU markets are counted only once in the total business counts.

The RTS statistics link goods data sourced from the UK overseas trade in goods statistics (OTS) with ONS business data sourced from the IDBR, to provide information about the number of businesses that are trading those goods. The IDBR is a comprehensive list of UK businesses used by government for statistical purposes. It is mainly sourced from VAT receipts and PAYE records from HMRC. The IDBR is fully compliant with the EU regulation on the harmonisation of business registers for statistical purposes. See the ONS website for more information on the IDBR.

Businesses trading exclusively below the statistical value threshold for customs declarations (£873 in value and 1,000kg in net mass) are not captured in these statistics. NI-EU movements are captured via trade above the Intrastat threshold (£500,000 for EU imports and £250,000 for EU exports), and by VAT data for those sums below the threshold for both imports and exports. Total UK business counts also exclude private individuals, non-VAT-registered businesses, and trade in non-monetary gold.

Further information on the methodology of these HMRC statistics can be found in the HMRC methodologies page for overseas trade statistics. Methodological changes for trade between the UK and the EU were introduced for 2021, so business counts data for years from 2021 onwards are not comparable with data for years prior to 2021.

3.7 TiVA: Trade in Value Added (OECD)

TiVA is a statistical approach for measuring trade and is different from the headline ‘gross’ trade statistics presented in these factsheets. The development of TiVA addresses the issue of Global Value Chains (GVCs) by considering the value added by each partner in the production of goods and services that are consumed worldwide. For example, in the case where UK exports are manufactured using imports of raw materials from a foreign partner, TiVA will attribute some of the final UK export value to that foreign partner. In this way, it distinguishes between domestic value added by that exporter, and foreign value added by importing raw materials used to make the final exported goods and services.

TiVA is a developing metric and should be treated as official statistics in development used as a compliment to gross trade statistics. These results are estimates and should not be over-interpreted. This development was aided by a report on Research on Trade in Value Added from the Department for International Trade and Cambridge Econometrics in May 2020 which was the first attempt in the UK to explore TiVA in a systematic way. Data from the OECD are used for the TiVA statistics presented in the factsheet. See the OECD website for more information on the TiVA statistics.

TiVA statistics are wide ranging and examples of metrics include:

the degree to which UK sectors are dependent on imported inputs for their exports (backward linkages)
the degree to which UK value added is embodied in foreign exports (forward linkages)
UK’s role in GVCs relative to other major economies, at the sector level, and over time
UK employment supported by exporting activity
how UK’s bilateral trade balances change in TiVA terms
UK’s revealed comparative advantage (RCA) sectors in TiVA terms

The factsheets provide figures on UK forward linkages (that is, the value added by the UK for trading partners exports), UK backward linkages (that is, the value added by trading partners for UK exports), and employment supported by exports both in the UK and by trading partners. One limitation of these statistics can be their timeliness, although the messages from the statistics should be largely representative for recent years. TiVA data may also be limited for developing countries. See the OECD website for more information on the methodology of the TiVA statistics.

3.8 Foreign direct investment (ONS)

FDI are contributions made by a firm or individual in one economy into the business interests located in another economy, with the objective of establishing a lasting interest in the host economy. Generally, FDI takes place when an investor establishes foreign business operations or acquires foreign business assets in a foreign company. FDI plays an important role in economic development, particularly for developing partners.

Statistics on UK FDI are published annually by the ONS in the Foreign direct investment involving UK companies release which has been designated as an accredited official statistics publication. The factsheets present UK-sourced statistics from the ONS which may differ from international data providers due to investment asymmetries. This is where the FDI from the UK to another partner, as reported by UK providers, are different from the values reported to the trading partner. Users are advised to use statistics from UK providers where possible.

UK FDI can be measured in 2 directions:

outward FDI: the direct investments of UK-resident companies in other economies
inward FDI: the direct investments in the UK from non-UK-resident companies

The main source of data for UK FDI statistics is the ONS annual FDI survey where separate surveys are used to collect data on inward UK FDI and outward UK FDI. This is combined with data from the Bank of England for all monetary financial institutions and other sources for property and public corporations in FDI. Survey responses are used to estimate or impute FDI values for every company in the UK’s inward and outward FDI populations.

More information on the data sources and quality can be found in the ONS FDI quality and methodology report.

The FDI statistics presented in the factsheets are for the overall FDI stock, which measures the total level of direct investment at the end of the year. These stocks are given in net terms, which are calculated as investments minus disinvestments. This means negative FDI values can occur when disinvestments are greater than investments. Disinvestments are the withdrawal or reduction of previous investments made, for example when a firm receives a loan from a partner overseas, or when a firm decides to remove some of its previous investment in a partner overseas.

The FDI statistics presented in the factsheets are based on the ‘directional principle’, where the data are compiled according to the direction of the investment for the reporting economy. This is different from statistics based on the ‘asset and liability principle’, where the data are organised according to whether the investment relates to an asset or a liability. The different presentation of the statistics can result in different estimates for outward and inward FDI.

It is worth noting that ONS statistics on FDI are largely influenced by mergers and acquisitions and therefore can be volatile and cyclical. FDI statistics are prone to large revisions due to the inclusion of updated information from surveys and revaluations in the value of acquired assets. FDI statistics can also be affected by investment asymmetries as well as ‘pass through investments’ which is similar to the issue of the ‘Rotterdam Effect’ for trading in goods. More information on investment asymmetries and ‘pass through investments’ are found in Section 5.

More detail on the methodology of these statistics can be found in the ONS foreign direct investment involving UK businesses publication, as well as in the ONS FDI quality and methodology information.

3.8.1 Changes to FDI sampling methodology for 2020 data onwards

On 3 February 2022, the ONS FDI publication introduced changes to the sampling methodology used to compile estimates of UK FDI. These changes were made to ensure the latest estimates were more representative of UK FDI than estimates before 2020.
These changes include improvements to the FDI population that the ONS draws its sample from.

The addition of new commercial data has increased the FDI population coverage, capturing more businesses that had not previously been included in the FDI analysis. This includes greater coverage of minority investment relationships (where these investment have between 10% and 50% of the voting power), and the inclusion of some special purpose entities that are not fully captured in the IDBR.

Adding this new commercial data resulted in an increased FDI population between 2019 and 2020: inward FDI increased by 16,100 businesses to 45,500 businesses in 2020, and outward FDI increased by 4,700 businesses to 17,900 businesses during this time. This population is now more representative of businesses in the UK undertaking inward and outward FDI.

As a further result of this new commercial data being used which has increased the FDI population, ONS has reviewed its sampling stratification methods. These methods are used to be divide the FDI population into similar groups, known as strata, to assist in the sampling of businesses. For the purpose of estimating FDI, stratification is used to calculate estimates for non-sampled businesses, based on similar characteristics such as industry and size of business. The new commercial data, which includes information on shareholder funds, has meant changes in the stratification for some industries in the population for inward FDI. This has had a net increase in FDI stock in 2020 compared to previous years. Note that outward FDI stratification methods have remained unchanged between data for 2019 and 2020.

These improvements have tended to increase FDI for new companies which were sampled, as those companies who received the FDI survey for the first time were likely to increase overall FDI stock values. Additionally, where these new companies were not sampled, ONS estimated the FDI for these companies and these often had a positive net effect on FDI stock.

Due to these changes in sampling methodology, caution must be taken when interpreting differences in FDI stock over time, particularly when comparing figures for 2020 onwards to figures pre-2020. Note that these methodology changes have led to an increase in reported FDI, particularly inward FDI, from 2020. The effect of these methodology changes will vary between partners, although it is not possible to quantify the magnitude of this impact for individual partners. See the ONS FDI overview of methods changes article for full information.

3.9 Headline trade and investment statistics reported by international providers (UNCTAD)

The UNCTAD datacentre allows users to explore trends in overall trade and investment between that partner and the rest of the world. This section differs from the statistics presented in Sections 3.1 and 3.9 which only consider trade between that partner and the UK. The statistics presented in this section of the factsheets show the total exports, imports and trade balance for each trading partner, as well as the total outward and inward FDI for each investment partner. This dataset is used over other comparable datasets from international providers due to its high quality as appraised within BIST, as well as its high level of coverage for individual trading partners.
The statistics presented by UNCTAD are collected from international data providers from each individual economy, which means reporting methods may not be consistent throughout.

There are 2 datasets from UNCTAD used within the factsheets:

trade statistics on exports, imports, and the overall trade balance (exports minus imports): Goods and Services (BPM6): Exports and imports of goods and services, annual
foreign investment statistics for both inward and outward FDI stock: Foreign direct investment: Inward and outward flows and stock, annual

All statistics are presented in USD$ billions, in current prices. Historic statistics are revised when the latest data are added for the first time. The trade figures are on a ‘balance of payments’ basis for both goods and services combined and use the latest Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BMP6) for its classifications of trade.

The investment figures show the FDI stock on a net directional basis (investment minus disinvestment), which in some instances may show negative levels of FDI stock if an individual country or territory removes previous investment with a partner.

Some figures for individual economies are estimated values, where these are presented in italics in the statistics table. These statistics are published bi-annually with previous figures subject to revision. See the UNCTAD statistics release calendar detailing projected dates of updates.

More historic statistics than what are provided in the factsheets can be found on the UNCTAD website. More information on the methodology of both statistics can be found on each webpage by clicking the ‘i’ symbol in the tables title.

3.10 Economic data and projections (IMF)

These statistics provide a range of macro-economic metrics from the IMF in their World Economic Outlook (WEO) reports. These macro-economic metrics include:

gross domestic product (GDP) metrics such as changes in GDP between years
inflation
unemployment rate
population
investment savings
government net lending and borrowing

BIST present a small range of the metrics included in IMF’s bi-annual WEO reports. Many other published metrics can be found accompanying the releases in the IMF WEO database. Only figures from the full WEO databases are presented in the factsheets, although ad-hoc updates to figures such as real GDP growth may be presented when new updates become available. Projected figures for future years as well as estimated figures are presented in italics in the table. More historic figures than what are provided in the factsheets can be found on the IMF website.

Most of the macroeconomic statistics presented in the WEO conform broadly to the 2008 version of the System of National Accounts (SNA). Although national statistical agencies are the ultimate providers of historical data and definitions, the IMF are involved in resolving statistical issues, with the objective of harmonizing methodologies for the compilation of these statistics. More information on data quality is available at the IMF data portal.

More information on the methodology of each metric can be found when extracting the data directly from the IMF webpage by clicking on the ‘i’ symbols.

While the factsheets largely present statistics based on publicly available figures, the UK market share statistics are the only figures contained in the factsheet that are not explicitly published by other statistics providers. These UK market share statistics allow users to estimate the importance of UK trade on the imports of each trading partner. In the context of the factsheets, reference to UK market share in other markets is equivalent to UK market share in other trading partners.

UK market share statistics presented in the factsheets provide an estimate of the proportion of the value of all imports into a market that are accounted for by the UK.
Data availability and quality, as detailed in the other sections in this chapter, make it necessary to combine multiple statistics sources to derive market share. Market share values are calculated as the value of UK exports to each trading partner as a proportion of the total value of that partner’s imports from the world. The statistics are calculated using publicly reported statistics from the ONS UK total trade: all countries, seasonally adjusted and UNCTAD goods and services BPM6.

The UK’s market share in a given trading partner is calculated as follows:

UK market share = UK exports to trading partner / trading partner imports from the world

Statistics from UNCTAD are converted from US dollars into pounds sterling using the annual average spot exchange rates from the Bank of England so both datasets are comparable in the same currency; the exchange rates used for UNCTAD are for each corresponding year of market share statistics. As ONS and UNCTAD sources report trade values for both goods and services, the factsheets present a total trade market share, as well as ‘goods only’ and ‘services only’ market shares, where data allows.

UK market share statistics are updated when the ONS release their latest quarterly UK total trade all countries statistics, as well as when UNCTAD release their latest goods and services BPM6 bi-annual updates. The statistics are calculated for the last 10 years, up until the latest year common to both datasets, and statistics from UNCTAD may contain estimated data for some years. In the market share time series table, figures containing estimated UNCTAD statistics are shown in italics.

Market share statistics will be shown as being unavailable if:

there is no data provided for that trading partner in the UNCTAD statistics for the most recent year
the UK market share is above a tolerance set at 60%. This can occur when small amounts are traded with individual partners and is a result of trade asymmetries between the reporting of UK imports from the UK source and the reporting of world imports from the trading partner source (see Section 5.2 for more information on how trade asymmetries can influence trade statistics)

UK exports to a trading partner are used as a proxy for that partner’s imports from the UK. Statistics on UK exports to each trading partner are provided by the quarterly ONS UK total trade: all countries, seasonally adjusted. These figures are the same as those presented in the factsheets for UK exports to each trading partner.

ONS export statistics are used instead of import statistics from the official providers for each trading partner to ensure these factsheets use figures from UK providers where possible. ONS statistics may not agree with a partner’s own reporting of UK imports due to trade asymmetries, see Section 5.2 for more details.

Statistics on imports from the world by each trading partner are provided by UNCTAD in their table on ‘Goods and Services (BPM6): Exports and imports of goods and services, annual’. Statistics are updated and revised bi-annually. Dates of the next releases are published in the UNCTAD statistics release calendar.

More detail on the quality and methodology of the ONS export statistics can be found in Section 3.1, with more detail on UNCTAD import statistics from the world in Section 3.8.

3.12 Changes to data sources

BIST strives to provide high quality and transparent statistics that promote understanding and trust. BIST continuously review the factsheets to ensure the statistics provided remain fit for purpose. We review the addition of other publicly available statistics if there are clear needs from our users for their inclusion.
This section reflects changes made to sources in the trade and investment factsheets since its first publication in February 2021. This section will be updated as and when existing sources are changed or removed. Information on the sources currently used in the factsheets can be found in Section 3.

3.12.1 Changes to headline trade statistics: removal of non-seasonally adjusted quarterly trade data

On 27 January 2022, ONS published new statistics presenting UK trade by each partner market on a seasonally adjusted basis. All BIST factsheets now include seasonally adjusted headline trade statistics from the ONS UK total trade: all countries, seasonally adjusted. These headline statistics present the latest rolling 4 quarters for all partners.

Prior to the 3 February 2022 publication of these factsheets, figures were presented on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, from the ONS UK total trade: all countries, non-seasonally adjusted. The inclusion of seasonally adjusted trade statistics provides a clearer view of underlying trends that might otherwise be obscured by seasonal influences.

3.12.2 Change of data source for the number of businesses trading goods

Since mid-February 2024, the HMRC UK TGBC is no longer used as the source of business counts statistics in the trade and investment factsheets. Business counts figures are now sourced from the HMRC UK regional trade in goods (RTS).

Reasons for the change in data source include the following:

Coverage: the RTS statistics cover a greater number of markets compared to the TGBC statistics. In the statistics for 2022, RTS covered 103 markets for exports and 102 for imports, while TGBC covered 42 markets for both exports and imports.
Timeliness: the RTS business counts statistics provide more timely statistics, presenting annual data 9 months earlier than the TGBC.
Coherence:

the RTS statistics are revised each quarter to ensure coherence with other UK statistics, whereas TGBC statistics are not revised after they are published
BIST Core Statistics Book uses the RTS to report ‘Number of goods exporters and export value by region’. Although this is not the statistic reported in the factsheets, this change aligns the use of the same source for the number of goods exporters. The factsheets also use the RTS source for the section covering regional exports of goods

Question 4

4. Quality assurance

Accepted Answer

This section covers specific issues related to the quality assurance and dissemination of statistics within the trade and investment factsheets. Note this section does not highlight the quality of each individual data source contained in the factsheets. This is explored in Section 3 which provides links to quality reports from individual data providers.

4.1 Quality assurance process

Each trade and investment factsheet is produced via a RAP. RAP is used to ensure accuracy and consistency throughout the factsheets, as well as to reduce burden within BIST. During this process, BIST ensure that all documents are produced to an AA accessibility standard in line with government accessibility legislation as demonstrated in BIST accessible documents policy.

Production of the factsheets is typically carried out by one member of staff, whilst quality assurance is completed by a small team, to ensure there is independent assessment of the quality of the outputs. Several checks are undertaken to maintain a high quality and accurate product which correctly represents and matches the figures from providers.

The below items show the range of checks that are done during the production process:

Checks undertaken before a statistics release:

A series of test factsheets are run in the days leading up to a factsheet update to ensure the code is stable and works as intended. Regular testing of the code allows BIST statisticians to resolve any errors far in advance of data release.

The R code is continuously reviewed to ensure the functions work correctly and are amended, for example, when the functions have been made defunct due to R package updates. Additional validation checks for the R code are also added through a process of continuous development within the statistics team in BIST.

Quality checks for downloading statistics and factsheet creation:

Checks are done to ensure the statistics have been correctly downloaded from the source website. Any errors are picked up during programmed validation checks, for example, R identifies errors where the URL link to download the statistics has been amended compared to previous updates, or in cases where application programming interfaces (APIs) fail when downloading large quantities of data.

Following the download of statistics, manual checks are done to ensure the file is in a similar format to previous files. These checks include what file format is used, which time periods are being presented, and if there are changes in how figures are presented, for example, a change in its rounding of figures.

The R code is then run in segments to update the statistics used in the factsheets. Running the code in segments means that error warnings are easy to identify.

Quality checks on the factsheet outputs:

Once the factsheets are produced, BIST statisticians check that formatting for all pages is correct and there are no obvious page gaps.

There is some cross checking of figures between older versions of the factsheets. This is done when data has remained unchanged since the previous version, for example, when updating the factsheets to encompass the ONS quarterly trade statistics, the HMRC statistics should remain the same as the previous version.

The updated factsheets are then checked with online sources using a sample of factsheets. These checks confirm if the new factsheets are accurate and correctly represent the new statistics.

For the quality checks, BIST check a randomised stratified sample of different partners which have different ranges of data availability. This is to ensure a wide range of factsheets are checked and reviewed for each factsheet publication.

Final set of checks before publication:

A random sample of factsheets are checked to ensure they adhere to government accessibility standards, using accessibility testing software (see Section 2.5 for more information on web content accessibility guidelines).

The responsible statistician will then approve the factsheets for publication on GOV.UK at the set time of scheduled release, if it is a planned release.

Once the factsheets are ready to be published, final spot checks are undertaken by the digital team to ensure the correct version are uploaded, and accessibility guidelines have been adhered to.

The UK market share statistics are the only set of statistics in the factsheets which are not explicitly published by other statistics providers. These statistics are derived by BIST from publicly available ONS and UNCTAD datasets, and more information on their derivation can be found in Section 3.12. As these statistics are derived by BIST, a quality assurance process is in place to ensure they are accurately calculated.

The methodology for UK market share has been peer reviewed within BIST to ensure its outputs are accurate and of a high quality that meets user needs. UK market share is regularly used within BIST to analyse trends in trade with trading partners over time, as well as to explore potential opportunities for UK trade with certain partners.

The market share statistics are derived in BIST using a model built in R Studio. The model takes both datasets, performs the calculations and omits any data which are not applicable, for example, where total imports to certain trading partners are unavailable in the UNCTAD statistics.

The calculations are quality assured using a model in Excel to replicate the R Studio process for producing the market share figures. The Excel model is used to confirm the accuracy of figures used in the final factsheet outputs; another member of the team will compare outputs from the Excel model with the R Studio model to check they arrive at the same figure.

4.3 Partner market names

To ensure the factsheets reflect the current names recognised by the UK government for each trading partner, we use the FCDO list of approved names for countries and territories.

In cases where there has been a recent name change, or names are not recognised globally, there may be differences in the market names included in each dataset presented in the factsheets. BIST have attempted, where possible, to use the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) codes to ensure the data for each partner are presented consistently. However, comparisons between raw datasets may be more difficult due to these inconsistencies that occur in partner names.

Some examples of differences include Czechia and the Czech Republic (both are recognised names), Ivory Coast (also known as Côte d’Ivoire), as well as differences in smaller partners such as St. Helena (known by FCDO by the collection of islands of St Helena, Ascension and Tristan da Cunha, but are presented as St. Helena here for consistency with the ONS dataset).

BIST have ensured that the partner names fully reflect the FCDO list of approved names by presenting our list of partner names prior to the first publication of these factsheets in February 2021. These partner names may change over time and BIST will endeavour to present the most recent names in the factsheets at the time of writing.

Factsheets are provided for over 220 individual partners who trade with the UK. This list of partners is based on those reported in the ONS UK total trade publication (see Section 3.1 for more detail on this dataset). Almost all of the partners in this ONS publication correspond to a trade and investment factsheet that is published online. While the list of partners we publish factsheets for is extensive, it is not exhaustive. There are a small number of partners, where trade with the UK is small in value and limited data is available from other sources. These factsheets are available by contacting statistics@businessandtrade.gov.uk. This list will be reviewed on an annual basis and additional factsheets will be published online if there is a user need.

Question 5

5. Understanding data methods

Accepted Answer

5.1 Changes to EU trade in goods data collection

Following the end of the EU Exit transition period on 31 December 2020, the free movement of goods and services between the UK and the EU ended. This has meant the HMRC data collection methodology for the trade in goods statistics changed, where ONS source their trade in goods data from this HMRC data.

From January 2021 onwards, exports from Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales) to the EU are captured by customs declarations, rather than by the Intrastat survey, in line with exports to non-EU partners.

From January 2022, the Goods Vehicle Movement Service (GVMS) was introduced for all UK exports to the EU. This ensures all export paperwork is completed before vehicles enter the port. All exports of goods from Great Britain are recorded on their departure date.

In line with Great Britain exports, from January 2022 onwards, Great Britain imports from the EU are now also captured by customs declarations. Data from the Intrastat survey is now only used for the movement of goods between Northern Ireland and the EU.

More information can be found in the impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics ONS articles.

More information on these data collection methodology changes can be found on the HMRC overseas trade in goods statistics methodology and quality report webpage.

5.2 Understanding seasonal adjustment

The factsheets present seasonally adjusted headline trade statistics, which provide a better indication on the latest trends for trade between the UK and its partners than non-seasonally adjusted data. Seasonal adjustment makes it easier to draw meaningful comparisons between data ensuring the statistics presented are not affected by variation associated with the time of year. For example, social, cultural and religious events – such as increased retails sales on the run up to Christmas which may influence trade in certain quarters. It also includes the removal of other calendar effects which do not necessarily occur in the same month (or quarter) each year, such as quarters which have more bank holidays. See the ONS guidance on seasonal adjustment.

Note that not all data series within the seasonally adjusted dataset are affected by seasonal effects. Where this occurs, data are not distorted by seasonal influences and so figures will remain unaltered for some partners, when compared to the non-seasonally adjusted dataset. ONS also publish UK total trade: all countries, non-seasonally adjusted.

Seasonal adjustment is applied to each data series independently. This means that summing values across partners may not equal the total figure presented for a trade bloc or group of partners.

5.3 The influence of non-monetary gold on headline trade statistics

Non-monetary gold is often seen as a ‘safe investment’ during times of economic uncertainty. In recent years there have been large movements of trade in unspecified goods, the majority of which is (approximately 90%) formed of non-monetary gold. As a result, and because trade in unspecified goods can be volatile, it can mask underlying trends in trade. For example, UK trade in precious metals increased by over 400% during 2019.

Some partners can be significantly affected by trade in unspecified goods, such as Switzerland, Turkey, Russia, the United States, and China. Unspecified goods can have substantial effects on trade trends with certain partners. It is included in the overall totals to ensure international comparability and comply with the UN Balance of Payments Manual (BPM6). The ONS have written a blog on UK trade in non-monetary gold.

Exports of non-monetary gold are not driven by a desire to own physical gold, but as an investment in gold via unallocated gold accounts, which can be considered similar to speculative investment in a currency that you expect to appreciate in value. Non-monetary gold is often seen as a safe haven asset during times of economic uncertainty. See the ONS website for more information on non-monetary gold and its effect on trade statistics.

5.4 The influence of asymmetries on headline statistics

When goods and services are traded between partners, the transactions are reported twice: once by the exporter and once by the importer. In theory, these values should be identical, but this is rarely the case, and this discrepancy is known as an asymmetry.

This is a common issue in trade statistics which means data discrepancies occur between various trade data sources. These asymmetries can occur for several reasons:

differences in coverage (that is, territory classification) and methodology
differences in survey methods and data sources
exclusions of particular types of goods or services
differences in disclosure control rules
differences in the recording of goods sent abroad for processing and repair
differences in methods of estimating value of exports
differences in the classification of goods and services in balance of payments statistics compiled in different partners:
under-reporting or misallocation of trade to a partner
differences in the timing of recording transactions
processing errors, fraudulent declarations, and so on

These asymmetries also affect investment statistics too, where the outward FDI stock for the UK may not match the inward FDI stock as reported by the UK’s investment partner. Users are advised to use UK data sources such as the ONS where possible when reporting trade and investment statistics with partners.

See the ONS guide to asymmetries in trade data, as well as the latest ONS asymmetries in international trade in services, UK and international partner countries: 2024 and the latest HMRC asymmetries in international trade in goods statistics: UK measured against EU and non-EU partner countries, 2022 to 2024.

The ONS also detail some of the reasons behind bilateral FDI asymmetries in UK FDI bilateral asymmetries in UK foreign direct investment statistics .

5.5 The influence of the Rotterdam Effect on headline trade statistics

Bilateral trade in goods statistics can be affected by transit trade. This is because headline trade in goods data are reported when goods travel between 2 partners (on an immediate basis) rather than reporting when the goods reach their ultimate destination. This ensures the reporting of trade statistics adhere to the recognised international standards.

For example, it is argued that UK trade with the Netherlands, and therefore with the EU, is overstated because many UK exports of goods sent to the port of Rotterdam are for onward supply to partners outside the EU. And goods imported from the Netherlands may simply be goods that arrived in Rotterdam from other non-EU partners on their way to the UK.

The ‘Rotterdam Effect’ is named as such after this effect for re-exporting in the Netherlands when trade arrives in the port of Rotterdam. However, there are other major re-export hubs around the world which also have this effect on trade statistics, such as Singapore, Hong Kong SAR, and the United Arab Emirates.

For more information, see the published research from the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence.

Question 6

6. Glossary of terms

Accepted Answer

Term	Description
Balance of payments	A set of accounts summarising all the transactions of an economy with the rest of the world. See Section 3.2 for more information.
‘Balance of payments’ or ‘change of ownership’ basis	On this basis, a good is recorded as being traded if that economic property changes hands. This means there is a change of ownership between partners even if it may not move physically. An example of this is trade in non-monetary gold, which tends to change economic ownership while still remaining in the same location. The ONS trade in goods data are reported on this basis and are not directly comparable with the HMRC trade in goods data which are based on a ‘physical movement’ basis. All trade in services are reported on a change of ownership basis.
Conversion (or exchange) rate	The conversion rate is the value of one currency for the purpose of conversion to another currency. For the purposes of UK market share statistics (see Section 3.13), figures presented in US dollars are converted into pounds sterling by using the annual average spot exchange rate from the Bank of England.
Directional basis reporting for FDI	These are direct investment flows, outward or inward, as presented by the partner companies in the reporting partner. Directional statistics present FDI from the perspective of the parent company, where any reverse investments to the parent company are subtracted. All FDI statistics presented in the factsheets are on this basis. An alternative way of presenting FDI is on an asset and liability basis. These statistics are organised according to whether the investment relates to an asset or a liability for the investment partner compiling the statistics instead. More information on how the 2 bases differ can be found on the OECD website.
Domestic value added	In TiVA statistics, this measures the value added generated by the domestic economy in the production of its exports, for example the value added by UK car manufacturers and their UK supply chains in car exports. See Section 3.7 for more information.
Exports	Goods and services that were produced or sourced from a country or territory, which were then sold to a trading partner abroad.
Extended Balance of Payments Services (EBOPS) service type codes	The EBOPS is an international classification of service types to compare trade in services throughout the world. These codes are used in the presentation of service types by ONS, in Section 3.4. respectively. A full list of EBOPS codes which are reported in the factsheet can be found in Annex B.
FDI asymmetries	Discrepancies in bilateral FDI statistics reported by different partners. For example, the value of outward FDI to the United States (as reported by the UK) may not match the value of inward FDI stock to the United States from the UK (as reported by the United States).
FDI stock	The accumulated value of all previous investments at the end of a reference period. Figures are net, that is the value of investment minus disinvestment, and can be negative. FDI stock figures reported in the factsheets are on a directional basis, see above for a definition.
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)	Investments made by a firm or individual in one economy (‘direct investor’) to acquire a ‘lasting interest’ in an enterprise operating in another economy. The lasting interest is deemed to exist if the direct investor acquires at least 10% of equity, or equivalently 10% of the voting rights, of the company.
Foreign value added	In TiVA statistics, this measures the value-added contribution that foreign suppliers make to these exports, for example the import of foreign car parts. See Section 3.7 for more information.
Global value chains (GVCs)	Global value chains refer to international production sharing. This occurs when different stages of the production process are carried out by different partners, such as when parts of a final product are produced by another partner overseas.
Goods trade	Trade of tangible items, such as raw materials or products.
Gross domestic product (GDP)	GDP is the final value of the goods and services produced in the context of this factsheet for an individual partner. GDP growth rate is an important indicator of the economic performance of a market. Metrics on GDP are provided in the dataset from the IMF, see Section 3.10 for more information.
Harmonized System (HS) commodity codes	The HS is an international classification of good commodities for the purposes of economic analysis and to facilitate the international comparison of trade-by-commodity data. HS codes are used in the presentation of trade in goods in statistics from UN Comtrade.
Imports	Goods and services that were bought by a country or territory, which were produced or sourced from a trading partner abroad.
Inflation	The rate at which prices for goods and services increase or decrease over time.
Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR)	The IDBR is a comprehensive list of UK businesses used by government for statistical purposes. More information on the IDBR can be found on the ONS website.
Inward FDI stock	The FDI stock which provides the total investment of overseas economies for the reporting partner.
Nominal (or current) prices	These are the prices at which goods and services were sold in the market at that time. This means no adjustments for inflation are made for that data.
Outward FDI stock	The FDI stock which provides the total investment in economies overseas by the reporting partner.
Partner	An individual country or territory which the UK trades or invests with.
‘Physical movement’ basis	On this basis, a good is recorded as being traded if it moves between the partners’ borders. This means there is a physical movement of that good between the trading partners, even if there is not a change in ownership. An example of this is trade in art which tends to be traded overseas so it can be displayed publicly, but still remains the property of another partner. The HMRC regional trade in goods data are reported on this basis and not directly comparable with the ONS trade in goods data which are based on a ‘balance of payments’ basis.
Real (or constant) prices	A real price is one which has been adjusted for inflation, enabling comparisons over time as if the prices of goods had not changed on average. This means adjustments for inflation have been made for that data.
Regional trade in the UK	The UK is categorised into 12 regions, which are Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the following 9 English regions: North East, North West, Yorkshire and The Humber, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, South East, and South West. These UK regions are based on the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics references as defined by Eurostat as ITL1 regions. See Section 3.5 for more information.
Seasonal adjustment	The purpose of seasonal adjustment is to remove systematic calendar-related variation associated with particular times of the year. The removal of these seasonal effects facilitates more statistically robust comparisons between consecutive time periods. Seasonal effects can be influenced by weather patterns; administrative measures; social, cultural and religious events; variation in the length of months and quarters; number of trading days in a month; and moving holidays such as Easter and Ramadan. It is advised not to compare seasonally and non-seasonally adjusted data unless it is for a full calendar year where seasonally and non-seasonally adjusted data will be equivalent. More information on this methodology on ONS statistics can be found on the ONS website.
Services trade	Trade of intangible products, such as business or travel industries.
Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) commodity codes	The SITC is an international classification of good commodities for the purposes of economic analysis and to facilitate the international comparison of trade-by-commodity data. SITC codes are used in the presentation of trade in goods in the statistics from ONS, as detailed in Section 3.3, where the Harmonized System is used instead in other datasets. SITC covers all of the goods classifiable in the Harmonized System, except for trade in monetary gold and gold coins. A full list of SITC codes which are reported in the factsheet can be found in Annex A.
Total or ‘bilateral’ trade	The value of total trade between 2 partners, calculated as exports plus imports.
Trade asymmetries	Discrepancies in bilateral trade statistics reported by different partners. For example, the value of UK exports to the United States (as reported by the UK) may not match the value of United States imports from the UK (as reported by the United States).
Trade balance	The difference in value between exports and imports, calculated as exports minus imports.
Trade deficit	Occurs when the value of imports exceeds that of its exports, that is, when its trade balance is negative.
Trade in Value Added (TiVA)	TiVA is a statistical approach to examine supply chains, which is not possible with conventional trade statistics. This is because TiVA treats international trade flows as flows of value added rather than gross flows of final goods and services. This is done by decomposing exports into the value added domestically and value added overseas. See Section 3.7 for more information.
Trade surplus	Occurs when the value of exports exceeds that of its imports, that is, when its trade balance is positive.
UK market share	These statistics allows users to estimate the influence of UK trade on imports to each trading partner. It is calculated as the proportion of imports from the UK as a percentage of all the goods and services imported by that trading partner. The statistics are derived by the Department for International Trade from publicly available data from the ONS and UNCTAD and are not published elsewhere. See Section 3.13 for more information.
VAT-registered business	Any company with a taxable turnover of more than £85,000 must be registered for VAT with HMRC.

Question 7

7. Annexes

Accepted Answer

Annex A – List of SITC codes presented in the ONS trade by commodity data

See the United Nations website for a full list of all SITC codes. Note that BIST present data in the factsheets at the lowest level of disaggregation available in the ONS dataset, although ONS provide data on all levels in each commodity’s hierarchy.

Within the ONS dataset, some codes have been aggregated up and therefore user should take care when using these data to avoid double counting.
As an example, in the ONS dataset, SITC: 7EC, 7EI, 7EK, 8OC, 8OI and 8OK are aggregates, that is:

7EC = 75C +76C +77C
7EI = 71EI +75I +76I + 77I
7EK = 71EK +75K +76K + 77K
8OC = 81C + 82C + 83 + 89OC
8OI = 81I + 82I + 89I
8OK = 81K + 82K + 89K

Code	Description of commodity
00	Live animals
01	Meat and meat preparations
02	Dairy products and eggs
03	Fish and shellfish
04	Cereals
05	Vegetables and fruit
06	Sugar
07	Coffee, tea, cocoa etc.
08	Animal feeding stuffs
09	Miscellaneous foods
11	Beverages
12	Tobacco
21	Hides, skins and furskins
22	Oil-seeds and oleaginous fruits
23	Crude rubber
24	Wood and cork
25	Pulp and waste paper
26	Textile fibres
27	Crude minerals and fertilisers
28	Metal ores and scrap
29	Other crude animal and vegetable materials
32	Coal, coke and briquettes
33O	Crude oil
33R	Refined oil
34	Gas
35	Electricity
41	Animal oils and fats
42	Vegetable oils and fats
43	Processed oils and fats
51	Organic chemicals
52	Inorganic chemicals
53	Dyeing, tanning and colouring materials
54	Medicinal and pharmaceutical products
55	Toilet and cleansing preparations
56	Processed fertilisers
57	Plastics in primary forms
58	Plastics in non-primary forms
59	Other chemicals
61	Leather manufactures
62	Rubber manufactures
63	Wood and cork manufactures
64	Paper and paperboard
65	Textile fabrics
66	Mineral manufactures
67	Iron and steel
68	Non-ferrous metals
69	Miscellaneous metal manufactures
71EI	Electric motors (intermediate)
71EK	Electric motors (capital)
71MC	Mechanical power generators (consumer)
71MI	Mechanical power generators (intermediate)
71MK	Mechanical power generators (capital)
72C	Specialised machinery (consumer)
72I	Specialised machinery (intermediate)
72K	Specialised machinery (capital)
73I	Metal working machinery (intermediate)
73K	Metal working machinery (capital)
74C	General industrial machinery (consumer)
74I	General industrial machinery (intermediate)
74K	General industrial machinery (capital)
75C	Office machinery (consumer)
75I	Office machinery (intermediate)
75K	Office machinery (capital)
76C	Telecoms and sound equipment (consumer)
76I	Telecoms and sound equipment (intermediate)
76K	Telecoms and sound equipment (capital)
77C	Miscellaneous electrical goods (consumer)
77I	Miscellaneous electrical goods (intermediate)
77K	Miscellaneous electrical goods (capital)
78C	Road vehicles other than cars (consumer)
78I	Road vehicles other than cars (intermediate)
78K	Road vehicles other than cars (capital)
78M	Cars
791I	Railway equipment (intermediate)
791K	Railway equipment (capital)
792	Aircraft
793	Ships
81C	Plumbing, heating and lighting fixtures (consumer)
81I	Plumbing, heating and lighting fixtures (intermediate)
81K	Plumbing, heating and lighting fixtures (capital)
82C	Furniture (consumer)
82I	Furniture (intermediate)
82K	Furniture (capital)
83	Travel goods, handbags etc.
84	Clothing
85	Footwear
87C	Scientific instruments (consumer)
87I	Scientific instruments (intermediate)
87K	Scientific instruments (capital)
88C	Photographic and optical goods and clocks (consumer)
88I	Photographic and optical goods and clocks (intermediate)
88K	Photographic and optical goods and clocks (capital)
89I	Other manufactures (intermediate)
89K	Other manufactures (capital)
89OC	Other manufactures (consumer)
896	Works of art
897C	Jewellery
9	Unspecified goods

9 - ‘Unspecified goods’ includes precious metals, parcel post, low value trade, coins, and defence equipment; approximately 90% of all goods in this unspecified goods category are known to be non-monetary gold and may have a significant influence on overall trade trends for some trading partners.

Consumption goods are those goods that are used directly by their final consumers, for example food, cars. Intermediate goods are those goods which are not used directly by final consumer but are necessary for manufacturing of the final goods, for example salt in food production, car engines. Capital goods are those goods which help in manufacturing of consumption or intermediate goods, for example machinery, tools.

Annex B – List of EBOPS codes presented in the ONS trade by services type data

See the United Nations website for a full list of all EBOPS codes.

Code	Description of service type
1	Manufacturing
2	Maintenance and repair
3	Transportation
4	Travel
5	Construction
6	Insurance and pension
7	Financial
8	Intellectual property
9	Telecommunications, computer and information services
10	Other business services
11	Personal, cultural and recreational
12	Government

10 - ‘Other business services’ includes professional, management consulting, technical and trade related services.

Cookies on GOV.UK