Teacher supply model: a technical description

An explanation of the model used to estimate the number of initial teacher training places required in any given year.



The Department for Education uses the teacher supply model (TSM) to calculate the optimum number of initial teacher training (ITT) places required. The TSM aims to match the future supply of qualified teachers to the estimated future demand within the state-funded sector in England. Outputs from the model are used by the National College of Teaching and Leadership (NCTL) when allocating ITT places to training providers.

Future demand for teachers is estimated using projections of pupil numbers in the state-funded sector, this is then adjusted by the estimated number of teachers required to implement the department’s new policy initiatives.