Research and analysis

Risk assessment on the likelihood of spread of peste des petits ruminants virus to Great Britain from EU and EFTA member states in June 2025 (executive summary)

Published 18 March 2026

Applies to England, Scotland and Wales

This summary outlines a qualitative risk assessment which has been completed to assess the risk of sheep and goat species in Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales) becoming infected with peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) through legal and illegal trade, as well as personal movements from EU and European Free Trade Association (EFTA) member states. The assessment reflects the situation as of June 2025.

It was necessary to make several assumptions in the risk assessment, such as compliance with trade restrictions and other legal requirements (except when assessing illegal trade routes). A detailed breakdown is available in the full risk assessment, which can be requested by emailing ukassurance@defra.gov.uk.

Background

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a disease caused by a virus from the Paramyxoviridae family with a relatively high morbidity and mortality rate of around 20%, based on recent European estimates. PPRV infects both wild and domestic sheep and goats. The disease was first detected in Europe in Georgia in 2016, which was followed by further reports in the EU, initially in Bulgaria in 2018. It was then detected again in Greece in 2024. As of February 2025, PPR is now present in Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary.

The following pathways were considered as part of the entry and exposure assessment:

• commercial trade in live sheep and goats
• commercial trade in sheep and goat germplasm (ova, embryos and semen)
• commercial trade in sheep and goat products (meat and meat products, raw milk and milk products, untreated fresh hides and skins, untreated hair and wool)
• packaging fomites (contaminated packaging)
• clothing and shoes
• transport vehicles and equipment
• commercial vehicles
• animal feed, bedding and crops
• illegal imports of live sheep and goats
• personal imports of sheep and goat products (legal and illegal)

Hazard

Peste des petits ruminants virus.

Risk questions

1. What is the annual likelihood of introduction of infectious PPRV from EU and EFTA member states into Great Britain?
2. What are the subsequent exposure routes for sheep and goats?
3. What are the potential consequences of an incursion into Great Britain?

Main findings

Entry pathways

The annual likelihood of PPRV being introduced into Great Britain through most pathways ranged from low (rare but does occur) to very low (very rare but cannot be excluded).

The most likely way that PPRV would be introduced into Great Britain was considered illegal personal imports of sheep and goat products. The annual likelihood of introduction associated with this pathway was medium (event occurs regularly) with high uncertainty, which raised the overall likelihood of introduction.

In the absence of the illegal personal import pathway, the overall likelihood of introduction would be reduced to low risk with high uncertainty. 

Exposure pathways

The overall annual likelihood of a sheep or goat being exposed to PPRV in Great Britain was considered high (event occurs very often) with medium uncertainty. This was due to the potential for close contact between infected and uninfected animals. While the likelihood of an infected sheep or goat being introduced into Great Britain is low, the high exposure score reflects the fact that close-contact transmission represents the main transmission route for PPRV.  

The uncertainty was medium because biosecurity measures on sheep and goat farms vary considerably and are not systematically recorded. Many recommended practices, such as isolating new animals, cleaning equipment and visitor controls, are not legal requirements. The remaining uncertainties for this section are listed at the bottom of this page.

Exposure of a sheep or goat to PPRV does not guarantee infection. For this to occur, the animal must be exposed to an infectious dose of the virus. There is no available data concerning the minimum infectious dose of PPRV in sheep and goats. Additionally, there are many other factors which may contribute to the likelihood of infection, such as the viral strain.

Consequence assessment

As of 2024, Great Britain is home to just over 31 million sheep and goats. Annual exports amount to approximately 87,000 tonnes of lamb and mutton, worth an estimated £599 million. Due to the possibility of sheep and goats not displaying clinical signs of infection, the extent of an outbreak in Great Britain would partly depend on how long the virus had been circulating before it was detected. While further spread after detection remains possible, early identification and culling of infected herds would substantially limit onward transmission. The virus is unlikely to survive effectively in the environment and has no known wildlife reservoirs in Great Britain. 

The consequences of a potential PPRV outbreak were considered major with medium uncertainty (major impact for small population, systems significantly compromised and abnormal operation, if at all, high level of monitoring required).

Key uncertainties

Entry assessment

The uncertainties in this section were:

• the lack of data on PPRV survival times on fomites and in animal products, with current estimates based on RPV
• the limited available data on the quantity of raw sheep and goat milk and milk products commercially imported into Great Britain
• the limited data available on the quantities of personal imports of sheep and goat products being imported into Great Britain
• the limited amount of data on the number of people and vehicles entering Great Britain from PPR-affected EU and EFTA member states

Exposure assessment

The uncertainties in this section were:

• the level of biosecurity among sheep and goat farms in Great Britain
• the length of time the disease could circulate undetected in sheep and goats, particularly in upland or mountain areas
• the lack of data on PPRV survival times on fomites and in animal products, with current estimates based on RPV data

Consequence assessment 

The uncertainties in this section were:

• the lack of data with which to quantify the potential impact of a PPR outbreak, due to the lack of previous PPR reports in Great Britain
• the susceptibility of sheep and goat breeds in Great Britain to PPR, and the potential for undetected spread due to some infected animals not displaying clinical signs