Paper prepared by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) on the reasonable worst-case scenarios.
This paper was presented at SAGE 50 on 6 August 2020. It should be read alongside:
and considered in the context of these statements released under SAGE 49:
These outputs should not be interpreted as a forecast of what is most likely to happen, but rather scenarios to inform planning at the time. Reasonable worst-case scenarios are considered for planning to ensure that we are able to respond to a range of scenarios. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly. You can find the most recent analysis from ONS here.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.