Guidance

Country bulletin Iran: security situation, March 2026 (accessible)

Updated 27 April 2026

Reference number: IRN-002-03-26

March 2026

Summary: Impact of the conflict inside Iran on Iranian civilians (28 February 2026 to 18 March 2026)

Summary

On Saturday 28 February 2026, the start of the working week in Iran, at approximately 10am local time, the US and Israel launched joint strikes in Iran, citing a lack of progress in nuclear talks and threats imposed by Iran.

The US and Israel, jointly the ‘combined force’, have stated various targets: Iran’s political and military leadership, its missile programme, its aerial defence systems, its navy, its broader military capabilities, Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon, its intelligence and internal security apparatus, and its defence industrial assets.

Since the conflict began, Iran has been in a nationwide, state-enforced, near-total, internet blackout, limiting and delaying the ability of ordinary Iranians to access safety updates and the flow of information leaving Iran. Accounts by those able to temporarily access the internet, including via satellite internet devices, are available. However, recent reporting indicates the authorities are seizing such devices.    

By 6 March 2026, the extent and geographical spread of strikes on Iran expanded. By 18 March 2026, at least 6,720 attacks in at least 2,566 separate incidents had been carried out, across all 31 of Iran’s provinces.

The combined force is reportedly meeting military objectives so far. Sources report that 2 weeks into the conflict, the US had sunk 60 Iranian naval vessels and the combined force had destroyed approximately 60% of Iran’s missile launchers, up to 80% of its air defences, and degraded up to 80% of its offensive capability. As many as 49 senior officials were killed in the combined force’s initial strikes including the country’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

However, civilian sites have been struck during hostilities. Two schools were reportedly hit on the first day of strikes. Strikes hitting one of those schools, located in the southern town of Minab, adjacent to an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) naval base, resulted in the deaths of 168 people, mostly school children. 

A US-registered press association of human rights advocates has monitored conflict-related civilian deaths daily. It confirmed at least 1,369 civilian deaths, including 207 children, between 28 February and 18 March 2026. With a further 627 reported deaths pending review, 1,996 is a cautious estimate of all civilian deaths, as of 18 March 2026. In an estimated population of approximately 93 million, this represents approximately 0.021 civilian deaths per 1,000 (or 2.15 deaths per 100,000) of the population. The actual figure may be higher due to the ongoing verification process.

This, taken alongside the very high threshold set out by Judgment of the ECJ (Grand Chamber) in Elgafaji (EUECJ C-465/07) [43] and the domestic courts in QD (Iraq) [36] and KH (Iraq), indicates that the security situation is such that there are not substantial grounds for believing there is a real risk of serious harm because there exists a serious and individual threat to a civilian’s life or person by reason of indiscriminate violence in a situation of international or internal armed conflict as within paragraphs 339C and 339CA(iv) of the Immigration Rules.

Until 9 March 2026, the number of conflict-related internally displaced persons (IDPs) remained at 100,000. However, by 11 March 2026, the most recent figures reported at the time of writing, IDP numbers had risen to between 1.9 and 3.2 million, representing between approximately 2% and 3.5% of the population.

All cases must be considered on their individual facts, with the onus on the person to demonstrate they face persecution or serious harm.