Guidance

Forecasting demand for SEND provision for SCAP 2026

Published 30 April 2026

Applies to England

Overview

This guidance supports local authorities to produce forecasts of demand for specialist school and alternative provision places for pupils with education, health and care plans (EHCPs) in line with the data requirements for the school capacity (SCAP) survey 2026. This guidance  supplements and supports the Department for Education (DfE)’s guidance on how to complete the SCAP survey.

How the data are used

The forecast data asked for will help to ensure that sufficient support is available for children and young people when they need it, in the most efficient way.

Collecting forecasts of demand for specialist provision supports both DfE and the local government sector to better identify the location and number of specialist school places that may be needed in future.

The forecasts allow DfE to explore options for evolving our capital funding methodologies and strengthening the targeting of that funding over time. However, we would expect to consult appropriately with local authorities before using any local authority-produced forecasts for funding purposes, and no decisions have yet been made as to how any future funding systems might operate in practice.

Expectations of the SCAP collection

In asking for this information, we recognise the challenges of forecasting demand for specialist provision, given the range of potential placements and the varied way they are organised through each local authority’s local offers of services and provision for special educational needs and disabilities (SEND). Close collaboration between local authority capital, high needs revenue, and SEND and AP teams is needed to ensure forecasts are realistic and reflect the local authority’s overarching strategy for delivering special educational needs provision.

SCAP 2023 was the first time many local authorities will have been asked to produce detailed forecasts of future demand for specialist places. We therefore recognise that processes and methodologies for producing said forecasts may still be less robust and mature than those used for producing mainstream pupil forecasts. Local authorities may be required to  involve individuals or business areas who might not have much previous experience of completing SCAP, especially SEND and AP teams and those responsible for high needs revenue funding.

As such, this guidance  supports all local authority colleagues undertaking this task. It builds on approaches and techniques used in previous surveys and those that local authorities may be familiar with from producing their mainstream pupil forecasts.

Local authorities are free to adopt whatever forecasting approach they think works best for their local circumstances, as long as their chosen approach both:

• produces the required outputs for the SCAP collection
• aligns with basic principles set out in this guidance

This flexibility reflects the variety of factors that influence demand for specialist provision and the differences in how such provision is organised.

As part of their SCAP return, we expect local authorities to include details of their chosen specialist provision forecasting methodology in addition to their mainstream methodology. DfE may work with local authorities to understand better their individual forecasting approach as part of SCAP data cleaning.

A key objective of the first few years of data collection is to identify forecasting techniques, approaches and considerations that contribute to local authorities producing reliable forecasts of future SEND demand. This ensures that best practice can be shared and incorporated into future collections. As this is only the third annual collection, we will continue to keep the recommended methodology under review.

Local authorities should produce forecasts that are as robust and reliable as possible, but we do not expect perfection.

We expect to continue to work with local authorities and the wider sector in future years to improve our collective approach to the forecasting of specialist demand, and we welcome continued feedback on the approaches and guidance set out below.

The forecast data required

We are asking local authorities to provide DfE with data on the capacity of their special schools, special educational needs (SEN) units and resourced provision, as well as forecasts of demand for various forms of specialist provision. The main SCAP guidance has more information on capacity.

Regardless of the exact methodology a local authority uses, all local authorities need to provide the following forecast information as part of SCAP:

• forecasts of the number of pupils resident in the local authority in each year group who are expected to have an EHCP and who will require a placement in specialist provision for:
  • primary year groups, for 5 academic years from 2026 to 2027 to 2030 to 2031
  • secondary year groups up to year 11, for 7 academic years from 2026 to 2027 to 2032 to 2033

These forecasts will need to be broken down by the type of provision these pupils are expected to attend. These categories are:

• SEN units and resourced provision in mainstream schools
• state-funded special schools (local authority-maintained schools, special academies, non-maintained special schools (NMSS))^{[footnote 1]}
• independent schools, including independent special schools
• alternative provision (AP), including AP academies, pupil referral units (PRU) and any other AP^{[footnote 2]}

Local authorities do not need to produce forecasts for pupils with EHCPs attending mainstream provision (except those in a formal SEN unit or resourced provision), as these pupils should already be captured in local authorities’ existing mainstream forecasts.

For SCAP, all forecasts of specialist demand will be collected at local authority level.

Local authority forecasts should include all pupils with an EHCP, which the local authority is responsible for maintaining and commissioning special educational provision for under the Children and Families Act 2014.^{[footnote 3]} This includes those who are awaiting or undergoing an assessment for an EHCP but who are nonetheless occupying a specialist place.

This will generally include all children with such needs that are resident in the local authority, or for whom the local authority is otherwise responsible, regardless of where the provision they may attend is located. Local authorities should include in their forecasts any of their own pupils with an EHCP who attend specialist provision in a neighbouring authority. Similarly, a local authority’s forecasts do not need to include pupils who attend specialist provision of any description in their area but are resident in another local authority’s area.

SCAP is only concerned with school-aged pupils, from reception to year 11, with an EHCP. Local authorities do not need to provide forecasts for people with EHCPs in any form of early years or post-16 provision, including school-based nurseries and school sixth forms. Similarly, at this time we are not seeking to collect forecasts of pupils attending AP settings who do not have an EHCP.

For further information on the definition of specialist provision, including the definition of a SEN unit and resources provision, see the main SCAP survey guide.

For pupils with EHCPs in alternative provision, where pupils do not spend the whole academic year in these settings, forecasts should represent the total number of pupils expected to need a place at any point within the academic year. There may be valid double counting between your alternative provision and mainstream forecasts, as these pupils will in practice need a place in both.

Table 1 is an illustration of a completed forecast. It is an example of a 5-year primary forecast of a local authority’s pupils with EHCPs who the local authority believes will require a place in a state-funded special school. Similar tables will be requested for secondary, and for each of the other categories of provision as described in Forecast data required. The data in table 1 is illustrative only.

Table 1: Example of forecasts being requested

Academic year	Reception	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6
2026/27	44	62	60	76	75	84	100
2027/28	47	44	63	62	79	75	89
2028/29	39	47	45	64	63	82	79
2029/30	45	42	51	49	66	65	85
2030/31	43	46	44	53	50	68	68

Forecast methodology

This section outlines the factors that you should consider within your forecast methodology. It also includes our recommended methodology, which can be broadly broken down into the following 3 steps:

• Step 1 – establish overall pupil population numbers

  • produce a forecast for the overall number of pupils who will be resident in your local authority, by age or year group - local authorities may wish to use similar modelling approaches to those used for producing mainstream pupil forecasts, or you may already have this data

• Step 2 – establish the number of pupils with EHCPs

  • apply a prediction around future rates of EHCPs to produce a forecast of the number of pupils resident in your local authority expected to have an EHCP by age or year group

• Step 3 – forecast pupil placements

  • apply a prediction on where any pupils with EHCPs are likely to be education - for example in a special school, integrated into mainstream provision, or placed into a dedicated SEN unit

These 3 steps represent just one possible approach, and other forecasting approaches may be viable. Alternative approaches has further detail of other possible forecasting approaches you may wish to consider.

Step 1 – establish overall pupil numbers

You may already have this data available as part of your mainstream pupil forecast methodology.

Local authorities should initially establish a forecast of the total anticipated number of pupils in each year group (including pupils without EHCPs or any other form of SEND need) that will be resident in your local authority, and for which you are potentially responsible under Part 3 of the Children and Families Act 2014. This forecast can then act as a base from which to calculate the smaller subset of pupils resident in your local authority that are likely to require some form of specialist provision. This also enables local authorities to factor in the impacts of additional local factors such as migration or local housing development, in line with existing best practice for producing mainstream pupil forecasts.

We expect that, for most local authorities, step 1 is likely to be similar to approaches used to calculate forecasts for mainstream pupil numbers (usually for intake years). You may wish to consider using similar (or the same) modelling or assumptions you have used to produce your mainstream forecasts. However, local authorities should consider other various considerations specific to pupils with SEND mentioned below.

One critical difference to mainstream is that you should only establish the number of pupils for each year group who will be resident in your area, and who the local authority therefore has responsibility for commissioning special educational provision for under the Children and Families Act 2014 and making alternative provision for under the Education Act 1996. Local authorities should ensure the forecast approach does not count pupils from other local authorities.

Step 1.1 – current and historical resident pupil population

We suggest that local authorities use relevant population-based data for estimating the number of pupils who currently and historically live in your local authority. Potential sources of population data include:

• Office for National Statistics – including Live Birth Data
• GP registration data
• Early Years census data

This step of the process is likely to be very similar to the recommended approach to forecasting mainstream pupil numbers for intake year R (reception). For a full example of how to calculate reception year group numbers, please see the relevant mainstream forecasting guidance.

Step 1.2 – establishing future population forecasts

Having established current resident pupil numbers for each year group, local authorities will need to establish a forecast for the relevant future years. Our recommended method for doing so is to use a population cohort progression rate, which requires the use of data on the current and historical resident populations. This technique assumes there will be a consistent increase or decrease to the number of pupils who are resident in the local authority in the next academic year for each cohort.

Population numbers for year R (reception) can be forecast using population data described in step 1.1. Population data will not be available for the final year of reception forecasts required. As with mainstream, you will need to produce a population estimate or use an external source of population or birth forecasts.

For a worked example of how to establish a cohort progression rate for each year group, see the guidance for producing mainstream pupil forecasts.

Whether using the cohort progression rate or not, you should consider the following factors when establishing future population forecasts:

Out of area pupil placements

Depending on local factors, any methodology used for producing mainstream forecasts may be affected by flows of pupils travelling from other local authorities to attend local schools. Local authorities will therefore need to ensure that any methodology it applies only represent changes to their resident population, such as population cohort numbers created by the movement of children taking up residence in the local authority or moving out of area.

Migration

The impact of migration on the number of residents should generally be accounted for in line with the practice applied to mainstream forecasts. However, local authorities should also consider whether some specific instances of migration (such as refugee resettlement) are likely to result in increased demand for specialist provision, for example due to additional health needs or a higher prevalence of social, emotional and mental health issues. If you anticipate specific migration factors having a disproportionate impact on specialist place demand, you should consider whether this may require making additional adjustments at an appropriate stage in your forecast methodology, such as to anticipated EHCP rates.

Housing

Unlike mainstream forecasting, local authorities should avoid accounting for potential pupil inflow from significant housing developments in neighbouring authorities. Local authorities should only include developments that are likely to increase the potential pool of pupils that they will themselves be responsible for commissioning additional specialist places for under the Children and Families Act 2014.

Other factors

As when producing their mainstream forecasts, local authorities may need to make further adjustments to account for specific local circumstances. Full details of relevant factors can be found in the associated guidance on producing mainstream forecasts, but some of the most common ‘other factors’ used in mainstream forecasting may have additional SEND-specific considerations to be aware of.

This is not an exhaustive list of considerations. Where local authorities are applying any form of adjustment for other factors, they should ensure they are considering whether these adjustment have any relevance or potential impact on the number of pupils requiring specialist provision the local authority may be responsible for.

Step 2 – establishing the number of pupils with EHCPs

Once you have established the total number of pupils likely to be resident in your area (and for which you are likely to be responsible) you should establish the number of pupils, by year group, that are likely to have an EHCP and require some form of special educational provision, including in mainstream.

Step 2.1 – current and historical number of pupils with EHCPs

To establish the number of pupils with EHCPs in future years, local authorities should calculate the EHCP rates. This is the proportion of the resident population calculated above that have an EHCP.

A very simple model could simply involve taking a local authority’s most recent available EHCP rates (such as for the 2025 to 2026 academic year) and rolling this forward to all future years. This would represent a scenario where the local authority assumes that no increase or decrease to EHCP rates is expected over forecast period (although the total numbers of pupils with EHCPs may still increase or decrease depending on underlying pupil numbers). However, for many local authorities this approach may not adequately capture recent trajectories of rising or falling demand for specialist provision or any actions that a local authority may be taking to develop their local offer, such as an expanded mainstream offer.

A local authority’s EHCP rates are likely to change over time, in response to a range of factors. As such, local authorities will need to consider how to model future EHCP rates in respect of the requested forecast years appropriately. Exactly how local authorities forecast their future EHCP rates will be dependent on their local circumstances and should account for any local strategy local authorities may have in place for managing overall demand for new EHCPs.

Local authorities may prefer to estimate potential increases or decreases in their local EHCP rates by looking at recent trends of growth or decline in EHCP rates. For example, by using an average (or weighted average) of recent historical rises or falls in EHCP rates.

Local authorities must also consider any national or local policies that may have an impact on the forecasts of pupils with EHCPs.

For example, a local authority may have experienced significant increases in their EHCP numbers in recent years and may therefore be actively pursuing local policies to ensure more pupils’ special educational needs can be met without requiring an EHCP. This might be by investing in early intervention and identification of appropriate SEND support measures that may reduce demand for EHCPs as the children age. Where such policies are planned or underway, local authorities may need to make some assumptions about the efficacy and timeliness of the outcomes of any local reform agenda. It is therefore important that local authorities prepare these forecasts with appropriate input from any relevant business areas (such as local SEND strategy teams).

Whatever methodology local authorities choose to use to establish their future trends in EHCPs, they should ensure they ‘sense check’ the resulting rates and forecasts of pupils of EHCPs to consider if they represent a scenario that could feasibly materialise in practice. In making this determination, local authorities should consider a range of local and national factors, including:

• any perceived demographic ceilings on overall demand
• any local strategy or reforms that may impact on the need for SEN to be met through new EHCPs
• whether any calculated figures suggest significant falls in EHCPs from year to year (which, for example, would mean unrealistic numbers of EHCPs would have to cease to be maintained)
• your participation in one of the DfE SEND intervention programmes, such as the Safety Valve Programme and Delivering Better Value, including any actions and agreed targets or trajectories relating to overall EHCP rates you may have agreed as part of these programmes
• the potential impact of policy and legislative changes

Example

In the following fictional example, ‘Appleford Local Authority’ has forecast the total number of pupils it expects to be responsible for under the Education Act 1996 and the Children and Families Act 2014. (Note: only 3 years are shown for illustration purposes, and all data is fictional. Local authorities should use their own EHCP data).

Year R (reception) forecasts have been generated using the historical trend in the resident pre-school population. Forecasts for year groups 1 to 11 have been generated using the actual resident pupil numbers in academic year 2025 to 2026 and the expected cohort growth. The expected cohort growth is based on historical changes in resident pupil numbers as the cohorts move up through the year groups. For more information on this, please see the main SCAP guidance.

Table 2: Resident pupil numbers, actual and forecast, for the primary phase

Academic year	Reception	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6
2025/26 actual resident pupil numbers	4486	4491	4436	4539	4766	4824	4773
2026/27 forecast	4,440	4,526	4,518	4,459	4,552	4,766	4,824
2027/28 forecast	4,445	4,480	4,553	4,541	4,472	4,552	4,766
2028/29 forecast	4,420	4,485	4,507	4,576	4,554	4,472	4,552
2029/30 forecast	4,400	4,460	4,512	4,530	4,590	4,554	4,472
2030/31 forecast	4,395	4,440	4,486	4,535	4,543	4,590	4,554

Table 3: Current EHCP rates for the primary phase

Academic year	Reception	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6
2025/26 EHCP rate	2.30%	2.60%	2.90%	3.50%	3.30%	3.60%	3.90%

Table 4: Initial forecast EHCP numbers for the primary phase

Academic year	Reception	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6
2026/27 forecast	102	118	131	156	150	172	188
2027/28 forecast	102	116	132	159	148	164	186
2028/29 forecast	102	117	131	160	150	161	178
2029/30 forecast	101	116	131	159	151	164	174
2030/31 forecast	101	115	130	159	150	165	178

In this fictional example, due to the variance in the current EHCP rates, the forecast number of pupils with an EHCP in year 4 for 2027 to 2028 onwards suggests shrinkage of the year 3 cohort as it moves into year 4. However, as it is likely that those existing EHCPs would continue to be maintained, the local authority has applied a protection so that the total EHCPs in any given cohorts will never reduce below the number it possessed in the previous academic year (marked in table 5 with a *).

Table 5: Updated forecast EHCP numbers for the primary phase

Academic year	Reception	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6
2026/27 forecast	102	118	131	156	150	172	188
2027/28 forecast	102	116	132	159	156*	164	186
2028/29 forecast	102	117	131	160	159*	161	178
2029/30 forecast	101	116	131	159	160*	164	174
2030/31 forecast	101	115	130	159	159*	165	178

In this example, and so far within this recommended methodology, the forecast of pupils with EHCPs is the total number of pupils with EHCPs regardless of the provision type the pupil is placed in.

Step 3 – forecasting pupil placements

The final stage of forecasting demand for specialist provision is to establish the likely placement destination of the pupils with EHCPs identified in step 2, such as the type of institution or provision each pupil will attend. Not every pupil with an EHCP will require access to a specialist place, and many will be educated entirely within mainstream provision with appropriate additional SEND support. These pupils should already be captured by local authorities’ existing SCAP reporting on mainstream forecasts and do not need to be reported again separately.

For all other pupils with EHCPs, we are again asking local authorities to provide separate forecasts for primary and secondary-age pupils with EHCPs who will require provision in:

• SEN units and resourced provision
• special schools, including maintained special schools, special academies and non-maintained special schools
• independent provision, both in mainstream independent schools and independent special schools
• alternative provision

Local authorities should produce a separate forecast for each category of provision as listed. For the purposes of submission to the SCAP collection, each of these categories will have a special planning area code and name.

In some instances, forecasts for SEN units, resourced provision and alternative provision may include pupils that also access mainstream provision (at the same time or at certain points in the academic year). This may result in these pupils also being captured in a local authorities’ mainstream forecasts (potentially ‘double counting’ such pupils). This is expected, as these pupils will in practice need a place in both mainstream and specialist provision.

For pupils with EHCPs in alternative provision, where they do not spend the whole academic year in these settings, forecasts should represent the total number of pupils expected to need a place within the academic year.

Pupils with EHCPs who are not expected to be placed in any of the listed categories of provision do not need to be included in the specialist provision forecasts.

Step 3.1 – current and historical EHCP placements

To establish the likely destination for pupils with EHCPs, we recommend you initially assess current and historical patterns of pupil placements (SEN2 data is likely to be helpful).

Step 3.2 – establish placement rates

You can establish historical rates of pupil placement in your area for each type of provision for any given academic year by using the formula:

• Number of pupils in relevant provision type divided by total number of pupils with EHCPs

Having established your relevant historical placement rates, you will need to determine the likely rates of pupil placement in future. As with establishing future EHCP rates, you will need to decide whether to establish your future placement rates by using averages of recent data, a weighted average, or other trend-based approaches.

In doing so, local authorities will also need to consider whether:

• there are any local factors that are likely to affect pupil placements in future
• their historical placement rates best reflect future placement practices in your local authority, especially for major intake years (for example year 7)

For example, if a new special secondary school is opening in a local authority, it may significantly affect placement patterns for future year 7 pupils compared to previous cohorts. Additional examples of factors to consider might include:

• opening new local specialist provision may result in a lower proportion of children being placed in independent provision
• local intervention measures focused on earlier intervention, inclusivity and better support in mainstream provision might result in fewer pupils requiring formal SEN units or resourced provision, freeing up capacity for pupils who might have otherwise required a special school place
• local capital programmes delivering more SEN units or resourced provision may result in a rise of future pupils being accommodated in those settings
• any local SEND strategy or plan that may affect how pupils are placed in specific types of provision in future
• capacity constraints in existing provision

As the numbers of pupils with EHCPs in a given year group may be relatively small, local authorities will also need to consider inherent volatility in your data set, as small changes in the number of placements from year to year may result in large percentage shifts. Depending on cohort size, local authorities will therefore need to determine whether it is better to calculate future placement rates at individual year group level, or to do so first by some more stable grouping such as education phase or across another combination of year groups (such as key stage, infants or junior).

Placement rates should also take account of how pupils are likely to move between provision types in practice. For example, pupils tend not to move between provision types once placed, so local reforms affecting pupil destinations are likely to have the largest impact of key transition or intake years (for example year 7). In such instances there may be significant differences between the placement rates for existing pupils against the likely placement rates for particular future cohorts. Local authorities should ensure their assumptions about future rates consider this dynamic where this might have a meaningful impact on their forecasts.

For alternative provision, we are only seeking to collect forecasts of alternative provision pupils with an EHCP. Pupils attending alternative provision without an EHCP should not be included when determining the EHCP placement rates.

Once you have established appropriate placement rates for each requested forecast year, local authorities can multiply the calculated rate for each provision type by the total number of pupils in each year group with EHCPs they established in step 2. This will provide a forecast number of pupils in each year group that you expect to be placed in each type of provision for any given forecast year.

Reasonable demand vs actual placements

Local authority forecasts of specialist place demand should as far as possible reflect demand for specialist places as is likely to be achievable within each local authority’s specific local context. For example, forecasts of demand should not generally indicate significant shifts in the balance of provision that existing pupils are attending, unless the local authority can provide an explanation of some corresponding local change that might realistically result in such an outcome.

For some local authorities we recognise that available and planned capacity in existing specialist provision may be a factor when they are considering how their future placement behaviour may evolve over the forecast period. For the purposes of the SCAP collection, local authorities should present their forecasts assuming that capacity will not be a barrier to making future placements, just as a local authority’s existing mainstream pupil forecasts assume the future availability of all necessary mainstream places.

This approach to forecasting is so we can better understand the true demand for specific forms of provision, and therefore the scale of any possible shortfalls between demand and existing capacity, without this being disguised by other assumptions. For example, should a shortfall of special school places materialise, a local authority might assume it would result in pupils remaining in unsuitable mainstream settings for longer than would be desirable. However, reflecting increased demand for mainstream places in their mainstream forecasts would disguise the underlying demand for places in special schools. As such, we do not wish for local authorities to artificially distort their forecasts in this way by attempting to forecast sub-optimal pupil placements based on their predictions about the future availability of the necessary places, or their access to additional capital funding in the intervening period.

Example

Based on the example in step 2, Appleford local authority forecasts in AY 2027 to 2028 it will have 1,062 secondary pupils with an EHCP. It also estimates that, based on historical trends, the impact of a new free school opening, and local authority efforts to boost inclusivity in mainstream, in AY 2027 to 2028 approximately 32% of those pupils will require a placement in a specialist school.

Applying the 32% placement rate to the 1,062 secondary pupils suggests a need for roughly 340 secondary special school places in AY 2027 to 2028. However, even with the new free school opening, and other local authority expansion projects in progress, Appleford believes that by AY 2027 to 2028 it will only have available capacity for around 330 special school placements.

For the purposes of SCAP, the local authority should still report a forecast of 340 special school places even though it may in practice need to find alternative accommodation for the 10 remaining children (such as by making additional independent placements or having them remain in less suitable mainstream provision while awaiting a place).

Local authorities should not report forecasts based on entirely unmitigated demand for certain types of provision. Instead, they should attempt to reflect demand from the perspective of the local authority acting as the commissioning body operating a financially sustainable local offer. This includes the demand a reasonable and effective local authority will experience after taking account of:

• existing placement policies
• their local SEND strategy
• likely pupil and parent preferences
• any local reform measures

This approach may, in some instances, require local authorities to make adjustments to their estimated future placement rates if their approach to calculating these already reflects assumptions about how existing capacity constraints may affect future placement decisions. For example, a local authority might be forecasting continued future rises in independent usage due to concerns that a lack of capacity in their state special schools has recently increased their reliance on such places.

Our recommendation is that local authorities should continue to forecast that existing pupils will remain in their current placements, as they are generally unlikely to move once placed.

For future pupil cohorts, we recommend that local authorities apply the following principles:

• capacity should not be treated as a barrier to identifying preferred placements
• local authorities should report their first choice of placement in line with their local placement policies

We recognise that applying these principles may appear to show an unrealistic shift from previous placement patterns. However, they should still be followed when forecasting future cohorts.

Example

Based on existing trends, Appleford local authority calculated that, in AY 2027 to 2028, approximately 7.2% of secondary pupil with an EHCP require a placement in an independent school. However, it knows that this figure reflects the fact that shortages of local special places have already led to the local authority commissioning increasing number of places in independent special schools.

Based on the recommended principles, we are asking local authorities to forecast demand for places they will face as a responsible commissioning body, rather than where pupils may ultimately be placed. The local authority determines that, of the 7.2%, approximately half might be happily accommodated in a local state-funded special school if local capacity was available, as opposed to instances where that particular provision genuinely represents the best option for that pupil.

Therefore, Appleford local authority continues to use its existing placement rates for any pupil cohorts already in the system, as they are now likely to move provision. However, for new pupils entering the system, it reflects the true reasonable demand as outlined above. It therefore produces a forecast assuming only 3.6% of future pupils might require an independent place, while the remaining 3.6% are added to the existing state-funded special school place forecast.

This approach may result in local authorities submitting forecasts of placements that will not ultimately reflect the reality of where their placements may be made. This is acceptable.

DfE will not hold local authorities to account for achieving or delivering their reported placement patterns.

We believe that this approach is a necessary compromise to help reveal demand for certain types of provision, which might otherwise have been disguised or hidden had we requested local authorities provide more realistic, but ultimately less optimal, placement forecasts.

Example

Tables 6 to 9 continue the fictional example of Appleford local authority, set out in step 2. The local authority in this example has produced a table of anticipated placement rates for various types of provision for primary pupils based on a trend analysis of their historic data and consideration of their ongoing reforms.

For the sake of this example, the local authority has chosen to consider the placement rate for the primary phase as a whole. In practice, local authorities may prefer to establish individual placement rates for a range of different pupil age ranges - for example by year group or by key stage.

Table 6: EHCP pupil placement rates by provision type for primary phase^{[footnote 4]}

Estimated placement Rates	Mainstream	SEN unit and resourced provision	Special schools	Independent	Alternative provision
2026/27	49.2%	13.0%	31.2%	5.7%	0.9%
2027/8	48.3%	13.3%	32.0%	5.5%	0.9%
2028/29	47.0%	13.6%	33.5%	5.0%	0.9%
2029/30	47.3%	14.0%	33.0%	4.5%	1.2%
2030/31	47.2%	13.8%	33.5%	4.5%	1.0%

Pupils in mainstream are already counted in the mainstream forecasts and do not require a place in specialist provision. They do not need to be included. For the remaining types of provision, the local authority can apply the rates set out above to the forecasts of pupils with EHCPs it produced in step 2, to produce an estimate for the number of pupils who will require specialist provision of that type for each relevant academic year.

Applying the special school rate to total EHCPs by year provides a forecast for primary pupils in each year group who will need a place at state special schools as required by the SCAP return.

Table 7: EHCP forecasts for primary phase

	Reception	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6
2026/27 forecast	102	118	131	156	150	172	188
2027/28 forecast	102	116	132	159	156	164	186
2028/29 forecast	102	117	131	160	159	161	178
2029/30 forecast	101	116	131	159	160	164	174
2030/31 forecast	101	115	130	159	159	165	178

Table 8: Special school pupil placement rates for primary phase

Estimated placement rates	Special schools
2026/27	31.2%
2027/28	32.0%
2028/29	33.5%
2029/30	33.0%
2030/31	33.5%

Table 9: Special school forecasts for primary phase

Academic year	Reception	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6
2026/27 forecast	32	37	41	49	47	54	59
2027/28 forecast	33	37	42	51	50	52	60
2028/29 forecast	34	39	44	54	53	54	60
2029/30 forecast	33	38	43	52	53	54	57
2030/31 forecast	34	39	44	53	53	55	60

Alternative approaches

The methodology set out in the 3 steps represents just one possible approach for producing forecasts of demand for specialist provision. Local authorities are free to apply other approaches if they feel this is appropriate for their area. All local authorities should ensure they detail the approach they have taken in their special forecast commentary.

Some local authorities may prefer to pursue a ‘bottom up’ forecasting approach, based on aggregating forecasts for individual institutions. Most pupils will remain in the school named in their EHCP for the duration of an educational phase.

Local authorities should be able to produce reasonable future forecasts by identifying the number of pupils resident in the local authority currently in each institution or type of institution, by age group, and progressing this cohort through the school.

Based on the local authority’s overall plan for managing high needs, it may be possible to make some assumptions about whether and for how long pupils currently placed in specialist provision will remain there, as well as anticipating the number of additional pupils that may join in future years. This will provide a baseline number for local authorities to model any anticipated placement, changes to placement approaches, or other local factors such as changes in overall pupil numbers due, for example, to migration or demographic growth. These institution-level forecasts can then be aggregated up to produce an overall local authority level forecast.

Whatever approach is chosen, as set out in this guidance, planning and forecasting of high needs provision should:

• involve any relevant teams across a local authority, including education service delivery and revenue and capital funding teams
• be overseen by senior leaders appraised of the need for a strategic approach and of the risks and issues involved

Effective strategic planning is reliant upon a thorough knowledge of local needs and a clear vision for the support required to meet existing and emerging needs effectively. This should be underpinned by robust and timely data regarding:

• existing placements
• local demographics
• trends over time of different types of need and age groups
• data on the capacity and performance of existing provision

Early identification of potential needs in early years can also help local authorities identify potential demand in advance of formal requests for support. This data can be used to identify the gaps in local authorities’ provision offer. This information should be maintained as robustly and as often as possible to ensure a local authorities ability to plan and respond.

Forecast by year group vs phase

To complete the SCAP template, local authorities need to provide forecast pupils by year group. If following the approach outlined in forecast methodology, this should be produced naturally as part of the recommended calculations. Where local authorities may choose to calculate their forecasts through a different method, or consistently rely on phase-level information, it may be necessary to break down a phase-level forecast into year group level figures. Various methods may be appropriate for doing so - for example, using existing or forecast numbers on roll as a guide for apportioning forecasts between year groups.

We recognise that for some pupils in special provision, year groups can be less meaningful than they are mainstream, and special schools may primarily be organised internally according to ability or type of need, rather than age. However, producing year group level pupil forecasts still provides valuable contextual information, such as when particular cohorts may be aging into different forms or stages of provision. Accordingly, local authorities should still attempt to provide forecasts that accurately reflect numbers in particular year groups, although we recognise that such figures may necessarily be less robust in comparison to mainstream pupils.

Changes to your forecasting methodology from the previous SCAP collection

SCAP 2023 was the first time many local authorities were asked to produce detailed forecasts of future demand for specialist places. As such, we are aware that the methodology used to produce these forecasts may develop and change over time. We encourage local authorities to assess their methodologies and make changes where possible to improve the accuracy of the forecasts.

Validating your forecasts

Whatever forecasting method a local authority chooses to employ, the process of producing your forecast should be robust and analytically sound. Local authorities should ensure any relevant modelling or input data is fit for purpose and has been subject to appropriate quality assurance checks, including final sign-off by a suitable senior official with relevant responsibilities for this area.

Final forecasts should be sense checked at a detailed and aggregate level. Checks should include comparisons to historical data and assessments of the accuracy of previous forecasts, which may indicate where inaccuracies exist. Local authorities should be aware that, when checking provision type forecasts, previous forecasts accuracy may appear low if the provision type has a particularly small number of pupils forecast. However, assessing forecast accuracy at an aggregate level may provide more insights into any inaccuracies.

Further guidance

Additional guidance and support on completing SCAP, including the required fields in COLLECT, can be found in our school capacity survey guide.

Local authorities should contact SCAP.PPP@education.gov.uk if they have additional questions or queries about the content of this forecasting guidance.

1. While local authority commissioning processing for NMSS may differ from other state-funded schools, NMSSs are state funded, as they are maintained by way of a funding agreement with the Secretary of State for Education and receive capital funding directly from DfE for the purposes of condition and general maintenance. ↩

2. Forecasts should just cover those pupils with EHCPs. We are not seeking to collect forecasts for all pupils requiring alternative provision, including pupils without an EHCP, at this time. ↩

3. The Children and Families Act 2014 contains duties relating to pupils with special educational needs, including preparing and maintaining EHCPs and securing special educational provision named in a young person’s EHCP. ↩

4. Figures are illustrative only. These figures do not represent what may be appropriate for any given local authority. ↩