Independent report

Updates to the HS2 Model Development Report

This report describes further development of a revised PFM model, which is termed PFMv4.3, and has been developed by Atkins.



The latest version of the PFM model includes updates to the base year rail, highway and air matrices to include revisions to the journey purposes in the rail matrices. Also development of new highway matrices derived from the DfT’s Long Distance Model and revised air matrices from the DfT’s Aviation Model. These matrices were also developed in Production/Attraction format (PA) to allow for potential changes to the PFM demand model.

The demand forecasts have been updated to reflect revised OBR growth forecasts. This was part of a wider package of model development that included moving to using revised forecasting parameters from the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook v5 (PDFHv5) and updating the PLANET South matrices.

Rail, highway and air networks have been updated to reflect latest assumptions. An update to the crowding methodology to incorporate the latest guidance found in PDFHv5. Other model developments including introducing the method of successive averages (MSA) to the mode choice algorithm in PLANET Long Distance. Moving PFM to the EMME3 software and adjusting appraisal values to ensure consistency with the latest OBR growth forecasts used to develop the demand forecasts.

Published 25 September 2014