Independent report

Review of HS1 demand forecasts

Report commissioned by HS2 to analyse the over-forecasting of cross-Channel rail passenger demand carried by Eurostar on High Speed 1 (HS1).



Chapter 1 focuses on the forecasts prepared before the opening of the Channel Tunnel, and those used to bid for the concession to build the Channel Tunnel Rail Link to operator Eurostar (UK) Ltd.

Chapter 2 looks at more recent forecasts (post 1997), outlining market trends over the period to 2010.

Chapters 3 to 5 analyse in detail 3 sets of forecasts prepared by Booz and Company for the government from 1997 to 2004/5.