Research and analysis

Asylum hotel savings from introducing visit visa requirements

Published 5 March 2026

1. Background

Since July 2024 visit visa requirements (VVR) have been introduced for nationals from the following countries: Jordan (10 September 2024), Colombia (26 November 2024), Trinidad and Tobago (12 March 2025) and Botswana (14 October 2025).

This note sets out an assessment of the savings to the Home Office from avoided asylum accommodation and support costs due to VVR preventing asylum claims from nationals of these countries. Prevented asylum claims are estimated up to December 2025.

2. Methodology

2.1 Considerations

The sharp and sustained fall in asylum claims from nationals of these countries following introduction provides strong evidence that visit visa requirements have prevented asylum claims. However, it is not possible to evidence the precise effect as there are potentially other factors at play.

The rate of asylum claims without VVR is difficult to predict as there are many factors influencing why people claim asylum. It is plausible that asylum claims from these nationalities would have continued to grow in the absence of VVRs. This analysis presents a conservative approach and considers what would have happened had asylum claims continued at their pre-introduction level.

To estimate the potential savings from VVR the key elements needed are:

• an estimate of the volumes impacted
• the proportion of asylum claimants that would have required accommodation and support and for how long
• unit costs for asylum support and accommodation

2.2 Estimated volumes impacted

To account for uncertainty 2 approaches have been used:

• approach A averages the number of claimants in the 4 quarters up to introduction and holds that average constant^{[footnote 1]}
• approach B holds constant the level of asylum claimants at the quarter of introduction ^{[footnote 2]}

The actual number of people claiming asylum in each quarter following VVR introduction is subtracted from the hypothetical volumes under approaches A and B.

See Table 2 for a full breakdown of the data used and estimated asylum claimants prevented.

2.3 The proportion of asylum claimants requiring Home Office accommodation and support and duration

The Home Office accommodation and support costs saved by preventing asylum claims will depend on the proportion of claimants that would have been destitute and therefore supported by the Home Office while their asylum claim is decided (including any subsequent appeal process). The proportion of claimants supported is estimated for each nationality using historic internal management information up to the period of each VVR introduction. The length of time an individual receives asylum support for is also nationality-specific based on historic initial decision grant rates and non-certified refusal rates^{[footnote 3]}. These should be treated as indicative rather than a prediction.

2.4 Unit cost of asylum accommodation and support

The cost of asylum accommodation and support fluctuates. For simplicity, a constant accommodation and support cost of £120 per person per night^{[footnote 4]}, plus VAT is assumed. This covers the costs of providing hotel accommodation and related services such as food, laundry and security. Using the hotel rate reflects the fact that the Home Office has used hotel accommodation to support asylum seekers throughout the period in question and therefore any increases in demand would have required more hotel bed space.

Table 1: Estimated number of people prevented claiming asylum and the associated accommodation and support savings.

Nationality	Asylum claimants prevented since VVR introduction up to December 2025	Total asylum accommodation and support savings since VVR introduction up to December 2025, £ million
Botswana	25 to 46	1.2 to 2.1
Colombia	1,627 to 2,206	103.9 to 140.9
Jordan	2,620 to 3,625	155.0 to 214.4
Trinidad and Tobago	269 to 297	17.7 to 19.6
Total	4,541 to 6,174	277.8 to 377.0

The ranges in Table 1 represent the low and high volume impacts from the 2 approaches (A and B) used to estimate the volume of asylum claims that could have happened in the absence of VVR introduction.

There are further costs of asylum claims that have not been included in this analysis. Further costs include caseworker time to process and decide a claim, legal services, as well as costs associated with any appeals. There may be wider public sector costs to provide education and health care while a claimant awaits their decision. And for those claims ultimately refused there are potential enforcement and removal costs.

Table 2: Estimated number of people claiming asylum with and without visit visa requirements, by relevant nationality^{[footnote 5]}

Botswana, VVR Introduced 14/10/2025	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4
Number of people claiming asylum	-	-	-	102	70	76	55	30
Estimated number of people claiming asylum without visit visa requirement (A)	-	-	-	102	70	76	55	76
Estimated number of people prevented from claiming asylum (A)	-	-	-	0	0	0	0	46
Estimated number of people claiming asylum without visit visa requirement (B)	-	-	-	102	70	76	55	55
Estimated number of people prevented from claiming asylum (B)	-	-	-	0	0	0	0	25

Colombia, VVR Introduced 26/11/2024	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4
Number of people claiming asylum	392	382	492	615	97	59	60	38
Estimated number of people claiming asylum without visit visa requirement (A)	392	382	492	615	470	470	470	470
Estimated number of people prevented from claiming asylum (A)	0	0	0	0	373	411	410	432
Estimated number of people claiming asylum without visit visa requirement (B)	392	382	492	615	615	615	615	615
Estimated number of people prevented from claiming asylum (B)	0	0	0	0	518	556	555	577

Jordan, VVR Introduced 10/09/2024	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4
Number of people claiming asylum	-	415	817	220	93	61	48	38
Estimated number of people claiming asylum without visit visa requirement (A)	-	415	817	616	616	616	616	616
Estimated number of people prevented from claiming asylum (A)	-	0	0	396	523	555	568	578
Estimated number of people claiming asylum without visit visa requirement (B)	-	415	817	817	817	817	817	817
Estimated number of people prevented from claiming asylum (B)	-	0	0	597	724	756	769	779

Trinidad and Tobago, VVR Introduced 12/03/2025	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4
Number of people claiming asylum	-	46	102	195	102	20	12	5
Estimated number of people claiming asylum without visit visa requirement (A)	-	46	102	195	102	111	111	111
Estimated number of people prevented from claiming asylum (A)	-	0	0	0	0	91	99	106
Estimated number of people claiming asylum without visit visa requirement (B)	-	46	102	195	102	102	102	102
Estimated number of people prevented from claiming asylum (B)	-	0	0	0	0	82	90	97

1. Two quarters of data are used for Jordan due to the lifting of a previous visit visa requirement on 22 February 2024, which makes comparison to 4 quarters not appropriate. ↩

2. For both approaches, where introduction of VVR has occurred mid-quarter, judgement is applied to whether the counterfactual precedes or includes the quarter of implementation. ↩

3. Initial decision grant and non-certified rate calculated using ‘Outcomes of asylum claims at initial decision, by nationality’, dataset Asy_D02, year ending December 2025. ↩

4. Hotel rate cost calculated from internal Home Office management information, also see Asylum accommodation in the UK - Migration Observatory; Figure 10 three-month average nightly rate between October 2024 and March 2025. ↩

5. Number of people claiming asylum from each nationality is taken from dataset Asy_D01, year ending December 2025. ↩