Fossil fuel price assumptions

BEIS produces long-term assumptions for the wholesale prices of oil, gas and coal for the UK.

These assumptions play a key role in determining the costs associated with energy and climate change policies and feed into the projections of carbon prices, generation costs, emissions and price and bill impacts of policies.

High, Central and Low Price Assumptions are provided for each fossil fuel. They provide a range for plausible future fossil fuel prices. The assumptions reflect long-term trends in fossil fuel prices and are not intended to capture potential short-term variability.

In compiling the assumptions BEIS has employed a number of different methods to produce figures using considered judgement. The 2017 Fossil Fuel Price Assumptions were reviewed by an external Expert Panel.

For any enquires about these assumptions or the supporting documents please contact

There are also links below to the Fossil Fuel Price publications from earlier years.


  1. Fossil Fuel Price Assumptions: 2017
  2. Fossil Fuel Price Assumptions: 2016
  3. Fossil fuel price projections: 2015
  4. Fossil fuel price projections: 2014
  5. Fossil fuel price projections: 2013
  6. Fossil fuel price projections: 2012
  7. Dynamic Dispatch Model (DDM) - May 2012
Published 17 July 2013
Last updated 30 November 2017 + show all updates
  1. Fossil fuel price assumptions 2017 published.
  2. Fossil fuel price assumptions 2016 published
  3. First published.