Academies funded on estimates
Information for academies funded on estimated pupil numbers
Applies to England
Introduction
For most academies, their autumn census return forms the basis for calculating pupil-led funding for the following academic year. In some cases, we use estimated pupil numbers if the academy’s funding agreement includes a clause to this effect.
The funding agreement clause may be conditional, and an academy’s allocation is funded on estimates until certain conditions are met. This is usually until all year groups are present. Once these conditions are met, the autumn census becomes the basis for future funding.
Special and alternative provision academies are not funded on estimates as the number of high needs places forms the basis of their general annual grant. More information on how high needs places are funded is available in the high needs funding arrangements: 2027 to 2028.
Refer to academies revenue funding allocations for more information on how your allocation is calculated.
Estimating pupil numbers data collection
Institutions provide their estimated pupil numbers in October each year, using an online form via the Department for Education (DfE) sign in.
We have now published information on how to complete your estimating pupil numbers return for 2027 to 2028.
It is important that the academy completes the EPN return, as this helps ensure funding is based on the most accurate and up-to-date information. As part of the process, we review the estimates and any supporting evidence to ensure they reasonably reflect expected pupil numbers, especially where there are notable changes from previous years.
If estimated pupil numbers are not provided, we will determine the pupil numbers using available data, including the most recent census figures. For academies that are continuing to grow and add new year groups, this may not fully reflect their expected pupil numbers.
We aim to notify academies of the outcome of the estimate review process in early 2027. Academies will then have 4 weeks from receiving confirmation of their agreed pupil numbers to query the outcome. Once confirmed, estimated pupil numbers are used to calculate the academy’s general annual grant (GAG).
Pupil number adjustment (PNA)
Where we initially fund academies based on estimated pupil numbers, we include them in the annual PNA exercise during the academic year. The PNA exercise determines if adjustments are required to bring initial funding allocations into line with the actual pupil numbers that schools record in the autumn (October) school census.
Some estimate-funded academies have funding agreements with a PNA threshold, where no adjustment will occur if actual pupil numbers vary by more or less than a specified percentage. If an academy’s estimate of pupil numbers is outside the threshold, or no threshold applies, we adjust funding through the PNA process. This results in either an increase or decrease in funding.
We use an academy’s estimated pupil numbers, and the pupil led funding they receive to produce per-pupil funding rates for the academic year. This average figure will be adjusted downwards for academies delivering T Levels within 16 to 19 provision to exclude the relevant T Level funding. We multiply the difference in actual pupil numbers by the per-pupil rates, taking account of any threshold, to determine the required adjustment. As in previous years, we run the calculation separately for pre-16 school budget share and 16 to 19 funding, and then combine the results into a single overall adjustment.
Where local authorities have already funded growth in pre-16 pupil numbers to meet basic need, we will deduct the amount they have paid from any positive PNA to ensure that academies are only funded for the growth once.
PNA calculator for 2026 to 2027
You can use our PNA calculator with the figures you have for your academy to estimate your own adjustment. By inputting your own projected numbers, it can also provide a reasonable estimate for future years, to inform your longer-term budget planning.
Academies in scope of PNA receive their statements in May. Academies receive payment of any positive adjustments in July. PNA recoveries start from September, in the following academic year.
PNA: important dates for academic year 2026 to 2027
| Month | Activity |
|---|---|
| January 2027 | We issue updated digital 2026 to 2027 GAG statements. |
| February 2027 | We begin payment of guaranteed early positive PNA instalments for academies where their estimated pupil numbers have been rejected. Newly opened September 2026 free schools are also included at this stage. |
| May 2027 | We issue main PNA statements, this covers outcomes for positive and negative adjustments. |
| June/July 2027 | Academies agree repayment plans for PNA recoveries. |
| July 2027 | We pay positive PNA adjustments (backdated to September). |
| September 2027 | We begin recovery of PNA in instalments from GAG. |
PNA calculator for 2027 to 2028
Our PNA calculator for 2027 to 2028 will be available in October 2027.
Estimate review and PNA: important dates for academic year 2027 to 2028
| Month | Activity |
|---|---|
| October 2026 | Academies submit estimated pupil numbers to DfE. |
| January 2027 | We confirm funded pupil numbers. |
| March 2027 | We issue initial funding allocations. |
| September 2027 | We begin payment of initial allocations in monthly instalments. |
| October 2027 | Academies report actual pupil numbers in the autumn 2027 schools census. |
| January 2028 | We issue updated digital 2027 to 2028 general annual grant (GAG) statements. |
| February 2028 | We begin payment of guaranteed early positive PNA instalments for academies where their estimated pupil numbers have been rejected. Newly opened September 2027 free schools are also included at this stage. |
| May 2028 | We issue main PNA statements, this covers outcomes for positive and negative adjustments. |
| June/July 2028 | Academies agree repayment plans for PNA recoveries. |
| July 2028 | We pay positive PNA adjustments (backdated to September 2027). |
| September 2028 | We begin recovery of PNA in instalments from GAG. |