National statistics

Vehicle excise duty evasion statistics: 2023

Published 7 December 2023

About this release

This release presents estimates for the rate of Vehicle Excise Duty (VED, or vehicle tax) evasion among vehicles seen on UK roads and the corresponding number of unlicensed vehicles.

This release does not feature an estimate of the value of potential revenue loss from VED evasion, although this has been calculated in previous years, see the Background information section for more information.

These 2023 statistics are based on observing registration marks of vehicles in traffic via a roadside survey carried out at 269 sites across the UK in June and early July 2023. Sites were surveyed both on weekdays and weekends.

Every vehicle registered in the UK must be correctly taxed if used or kept on a public road. This tax is collected and enforced by the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA).

This survey covers the whole of the United Kingdom, which is Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales) and Northern Ireland. However, some detailed results are only available for Great Britain due to sampling constraints.

Data on vehicles evading VED is calculated as being ‘in traffic’ (observations from the roadside) and as ‘active stock’ (all vehicles that may use UK roads at any time), both of which are detailed in this publication.

Headline figures for 2023

Previous year comparisons

For the production of the 2023 estimates onwards, the DVLA made an improvement to their VED data systems relating to cherished transfers (the movement of a personalised numberplate between vehicles) that are completed online, meaning that vehicles in this category can now be identified within their database to establish their licensing status.

This change to how the data are processed has reduced the number of vehicles assumed to be evasive when producing this estimate and means the figures for 2023 cannot be compared to previous years. Further details of this methodology change and its estimated effect on the results can be found in the Background information section of this release.

In 2023, there was an estimated:

• 1.3% of vehicles in UK traffic that were unlicensed (VED0101)
• 498,000 unlicensed vehicles in UK active stock, or 1.2% of all vehicles (VED0201 and VED0202)

The long-term trends of VED evasion have seen an increase from 2007, although comparisons between more recent years are not possible due to the methodology change discussed above.

Measures in this release

This release provides statistics on evasion in traffic and evasion in active stock. Caution should be taken to ensure the correct figure is being interpreted. These similar figures are summarised below in (Table 1).

Table 1: Summary of headline figures for VED evasion in 2023 (VED)

Measure	Great Britain	United Kingdom
Evasion in traffic	1.3%	1.3%
Evasion in active stock	1.2%	1.2%

VED evasion in traffic

Evasion ‘in traffic’

This is the rate of unlicensed vehicles in traffic. In other words, if you stood beside an average road, the percentage of passing vehicles which you would expect to be unlicensed.

This can be thought of as a measure of how much the roads get used by drivers whose vehicles are not compliant with the vehicle tax rules.

The latest estimates indicate that 1.3% of vehicles in traffic in the United Kingdom were unlicensed for 2023.

The long-term trends (Figure 1) are likely to be related to the major changes to the vehicle licensing system which took place in October 2014 (see the background information for further details).

Figure 1: Estimated VED evasion rate in traffic, Great Britain from 2007 to 2023 and United Kingdom from 2015 to 2023 (VED0101)

Tax class

Vehicles can be licensed under various different tax classes, depending on the vehicle and keeper characteristics. The DVLA provides general guidance on the main tax classes. The typical vehicles found in the tax class categories used in this release are as follows.

Private and light goods (PLG) - most cars and light goods vehicles (vans)

Goods - most heavy goods vehicles (HGVs)

Motorcycles - most motorcycles

Buses - most buses and coaches

Exempt - various exemptions exist, such as disability, electric, and historic vehicles

Other - catch-all category for all remaining tax classes, such as special vehicles, recovery vehicles, and tricycles

The majority of vehicles are in the PLG tax class, accounting for over 90% of all licensed UK vehicles. The UK evasion rate in traffic for PLG vehicles was 1.3% in 2023.

Compared to the PLG tax class, rates of evasion in UK traffic were relatively lower for both the goods (0.5%) and bus (0.8%) tax classes in 2023.

The UK evasion rate for exempt vehicles was 0.7%. Although exempt vehicles do not have to pay VED, they are still required to apply to be licensed as such for use on the road.

Region and country

The estimated VED evasion rates in traffic varied across English regions, between 1.0% in the South East and 1.7% in the East of England, as shown in (Figure 2). Across the rest of the UK, evasion rates were 1.2% in Wales, and 1.3% in Scotland while Northern Ireland had the highest rate of evasion in traffic with 2.9%.

It should be noted that these results are based on where vehicles were seen in traffic, not where they are registered.

Figure 2: Estimated VED evasion rate in traffic by region, United Kingdom, 2023 (VED0103)

Figure labels have been rounded for presentation. The full data are available in table VED0103.

Road class

Estimated VED evasion rates in Great Britain were similar across all road classes with 1.3% on minor roads and A roads, and 1.2% on motorways.

VED evasion in active stock

Evasion ‘in active stock’

This is the number of distinct vehicles which are unlicensed as a proportion of all the distinct vehicles that may use UK roads at any time. In other words, if you considered all the registered vehicles in the UK, this is the percentage of those which are unlicensed.

This rate can be lower than the evasion in traffic rate if unlicensed vehicles are actively being driven on the roads, or higher if they are being kept off the roads, e.g. on driveways. The relative mileage is estimated using repeated observations of individual vehicles. For more information, see the notes and definitions.

The latest estimates indicate that 1.2% of vehicles in active stock were unlicensed in the United Kingdom (Figure 3). (VED0201).

The rate for 2023 corresponds to 498,000 vehicles. (VED0202).

The rate of VED evasion seen ‘in traffic’ is higher, at 1.3%, than the 1.2% rate seen in active stock. This suggests that vehicles evading VED in the UK are not being kept off the roads, e.g. on driveways, but are actively being driven on the roads - although care should be taken when comparing rates as they may not be statistically significant.

Figure 3: Estimated VED evasion rate in active stock, Great Britain from 2007 to 2023 and United Kingdom from 2015 to 2023 (VED0201)

Further characteristics of unlicensed vehicles

The results in this section come from matching vehicles to their corresponding records in the department’s vehicle licensing statistics database.

The proportion of observations with a successful match is noted in each subheading. Not every record will match as some observed registration plates are not valid or registered with the DVLA properly.

There are five types of characteristics of unlicensed vehicles:

• last licensing activity
• time since last licensed
• age of vehicle
• type of registered keeper
• changed hands recently

These characteristics indicate that vehicles are often unlicensed for a relatively short period and often related to the change of keepership of vehicles. This means that unpaid VED revenue corresponding to these vehicles could ultimately be recovered once reminders and enforcement actions take place.

Last licensing activity (based on 88% of observations)

The last licensing activity (VED0401) out of all observed unlicensed vehicles (Figure 4) showed that:

• 79% were seen after the licence had expired
• 12% were seen after a licence refund had been issued and a subsequent licence has not been taken out
• 8% were driving while the vehicle previously had a Statutory Off Road Notification (SORN); 5% had a current SORN and 3% had an expired SORN
• 2% had no record of a previous licence

Figures may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

Figure 4: Last licensing activity: unlicensed vehicles, United Kingdom, 2023 (VED0401)

Figures may not sum to 100% owing to rounding.

Time since last licensed (based on 85% of observations)

The majority, 54%, of observed unlicensed vehicles had been unlicensed for less than 2 months prior to the beginning of June, and 11% had been unlicensed for over 12 months, as shown in (Figure 5) (VED0402).

Figure 5: Time since last licensed: unlicensed vehicles, United Kingdom, 2023 (VED0402)

Figures may not sum to 100% owing to rounding.

Age of vehicle (based on 95% of observations)

The distribution of the age of vehicles observed in the survey is shown in (Figure 6). Unlicensed vehicles observed in the survey included a higher proportion of older vehicles, with 52% being 10 or more years old, compared with only 27% of licensed vehicles. Conversely, only 4% of unlicensed vehicles were under 2 years old, compared with 15% of licensed vehicles (VED0403).

Figure 6: Age of vehicle: unlicensed and licensed vehicles, United Kingdom, 2023 (VED0403)

Type of registered keeper (based on 95% of observations)

22% of observed unlicensed vehicles were registered as between keepers, which was higher than the proportion amongst licensed vehicles (1%) (VED0404).

Changed hands recently (based on 95% of observations)

35% of unlicensed vehicles had changed hands since the beginning of October 2022, which was higher than the proportion amongst licensed vehicles (20%) (VED0405).

Background information

About these figures

Every vehicle registered in the United Kingdom must be taxed if used or kept on a public road. If the vehicle is kept off-road it must either be taxed or have a Statutory Off Road Notification (SORN) in force. Some vehicle types are zero-rated for VED, for example vehicles used by disabled people, mobility scooters, historic vehicles, electric vehicles, mowing machines, steam vehicles and agricultural vehicles. These are shown in the ‘exempt’ tax class in this report.

VED is collected and enforced by the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA). The agency carries out computerised and roadside checks to identify evading vehicles. These enforcement activities are independent from this statistical survey of evasion.

Survey design and methodology

These statistics are based on the direct collection of registration plates of vehicles in traffic via a roadside survey using automatic number plate recognition (ANPR) cameras at 269 sites in June and early July 2023. Traffic profiles from estimates of traffic in Great Britain during 2022, and Northern Ireland in 2014 have been used. For further details of how the survey was carried out, how the evasion estimates were derived, and treatment of misread registration plates, see the notes and definitions.

Potential revenue loss in 2023

This release does not feature an estimate of the value of potential revenue loss from VED evasion, although this has been calculated in previous years. (VED0301)

As the guidance used to assign VED rates for vehicles has evolved and become more intricate, the challenge of reflecting this into the calculations and methodology used to estimate the value of VED evasion from a large sample of vehicles has greatly increased. As part of our on-going efforts to ensure quality in our statistics we have identified a risk that the existing methodology, used to estimate this, is no longer capable of producing an estimate we consider to be sufficiently robust and compliant with its designation as an accredited National Statistic.

We are working with the DVLA to explore new methodologies to resume producing this value estimate for future publications. If you would like further information, please email us at vehicles statistics.

Changes in handling of cherished transfer vehicles in 2023

Owing to changes made in how data are now processed for this survey, data for 2023 cannot be compared to 2021. For the production of the 2023 estimates onwards, the DVLA introduced improvements to their VED data systems relating to cherished transfers (the movement of a personalised numberplate between vehicles) that are completed online. This meant that, for the first time, vehicles in this category, captured as part of the survey, could be identified as such within the DVLA database and their licensing status checked. This was not possible in previous years so vehicles in this category were assumed to be evasive for the purposes of producing an estimate of VED evasion.

This change has reduced the number of vehicles classified as evasive in our 2023, estimates, across most tax classes, including the largest PLG class, leading to a UK estimate of 1.3% for VED evasion for all tax classes. This follows on from the 2021 estimate of 1.9%.

The scale of change seen in 2023, compared to 2021, is indicative of the scale of change seen from how online cherished transfers are handled. This, combined with the complex weighting used as part of our methodologies, means it is not possible to attribute the fall in the 2023 estimate of VED evasion to a statistically meaningful change from 2021 or previous estimates and means the figures for 2023 cannot be compared to previous years, although should be possible for the following release.

The effect on the motorcycle class is not known owing to issues relating to the sample collected in 2021, which is covered in more detail below.

Motorcycle data collection in 2021

In the 2021 survey, there were unexpected failures in the data collection equipment relating to motorcycle-specific number plates. This resulted in an extremely low number of motorcycle plates being collected and this only became apparent after the field work was completed. This means that no separate estimates for motorcycle evasion rates are available for 2021, and overall evasion rates for all vehicles exclude motorcycles.

These issues were the responsibility of the contractor and outside the scope of operational planning agreed with the Department for Transport (DfT). DfT is confident that no other tax classes were affected and that the proportions of sampled plates were in line with expectations.

Whilst motorcycles have been observed to have a higher rate of evasion in previous surveys, they only account for approximately 1% of road traffic. It can be observed from past surveys that their exclusion leads to minimal impact on the overall evasion rate for all vehicles, reducing total VED evasion rates by around 0.01 percentage points.

Changes in handling of low observation numbers for particular tax classes at survey sites in 2019

For the production of the 2019 estimates onwards, a correction to the methodology was made relating to sites at which motorcycle evasion was not measured specifically and also an adjustment for all vehicle types as to how data from sites with low numbers of observations for particular tax classes was used.

For motorcycles prior to 2017, even at sites for which motorcycles were not monitored, the overall motorcycle traffic expected at the site was still used in the calculation of overall evasion rates. This had the effect of decreasing motorcycle evasion rates for those years by roughly 1 percentage point. The method has now been changed to only consider sites for which motorcycles were actively monitored.

In addition, further analysis has shown that for sites with low numbers of vehicle observations in particular tax classes, there can be a significant impact of relatively few observations causing the calculated overall evasion rates to be quite volatile. As a consequence, for the 2019 analysis onwards, it has been decided that each survey day at each site would only be included in the analysis if there were at least 10 observations of that tax class.

For this reason, it is considered that there is now a discontinuity in the calculated evasion rates estimated for motorcycles between the 2017 and 2019 surveys.

These methodology changes had a negligible impact on overall evasion rate estimates, and there is no discontinuity between years for these estimates or other tax classes.

Users and uses of these statistics

These statistics are produced primarily to provide the Department for Transport, the Motoring Agencies and others with evidence to take an informed view on vehicle tax evasion and related policies. The data also provide a source of evidence for auditing the VED account which is independent of the processes of collecting or enforcing payment.

Strengths and weaknesses of the data

Overall, these statistics are considered to provide good quality estimates of VED evasion in the UK. This is because:

• they are based on a purpose designed statistical survey, using methods that have been carefully developed and peer-reviewed
• they are based on a very large sample of more than 1 million observed vehicles per survey year
• the effects of number plate misreads have been considered and additional quality assurance procedures introduced to deal with them
• they avoid many of the statistical biases that would be likely to arise from using data derived from administrative or enforcement systems
• the results are discussed with the DVLA and are thought to be consistent with their operational experience

The limitations include:

• the high cost and practical constraints of data collection mean that only infrequent ‘snapshots’ can be taken
• the number of sites is limited by cost and equipment constraints, which reduces the efficiency of the very large overall sample
• survey work is concentrated in June to maximise the hours of daylight available, but this means no analysis of seasonal variation can be done and the surveys cover daylight hours only
• motorcycles are more difficult to survey given their different traffic behaviour and smaller rear-facing number plates. This reduces the reliability of these estimates for motorcycles
• the survey does not identify vehicles that are using ‘cloned’ or ‘fake’ number plates, which might be valid but belong to another vehicle
• the survey does not identify vehicles that are only parked on the public highway but not used in traffic, which would also be a breach of licensing rules

Administrative changes introduced from 1 October 2014

Paper tax disc abolished

The requirement to display a valid tax disc in the windscreen of all vehicles used on the road was abolished on 1 October 2014. This removed a visual in-vehicle reminder of the tax disc expiry date. However, the DVLA sends a vehicle tax renewal reminder 2 to 3 weeks prior to the expiry of vehicle tax. The DVLA also provides an online enquiry service which allows motorists to check a vehicle’s licensing status.

Non transferability of vehicle tax when vehicles change hands, and automatic refunds

Since 1 October 2014, any vehicle tax automatically ends when a vehicle is sold to a new keeper or transferred to the motor trade. The registered keeper automatically receives a refund of vehicle tax for any full months remaining, when the DVLA receives notification of the sale.

Introducing the non-transferability of vehicle tax provides consumer protection by preventing the purchaser of a second-hand vehicle unknowingly using or keeping an untaxed vehicle. Customers now have clarity on the need to always obtain new vehicle tax at the point of purchase. The DVLA issues reminders to all new keepers who have not taxed their vehicle.

Related sources of information

Statistics on the licensed vehicle stock are regularly published by the Department for Transport. The roadside survey data used to produce the VED estimates are also used to produce estimates of foreign vehicles in traffic, which are published as part of the DfT road traffic statistics series.

Next update

This survey is currently carried out in alternate years. Under this schedule, the next survey would be due in Summer 2025 with the report in late 2025. Any updates to these plans will be advertised via the DfT statistical publications schedule.

Request for feedback

We welcome any feedback on these statistics, to ensure future releases best meet user needs. Feedback can be provided by email to the vehicles statistics team.

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These statistics were designated as National Statistics in April 2012.

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Details of ministers and officials who receive pre-release access to these statistics up to 24 hours before release can be found in the pre-release access list.

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Vehicles statistics

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